Grade 1 World Cup Turf Mile

Hail Cesario (Seeking the Gold-Northern Dancer) Trainer catahoula will not have to stray far from his home to saddle up the likely post time favorite in this race, as he hails from Texas. Hail….Texas…..maybe we’ll be hailing Texas and catahoula after this race. The compactly and powerfully built son of Seeking the Gold is a full brother to Eclipse Award and multiple Grade 1 winner Super Gold, and this breeding nick has proven to be particularly powerful in the Sim. Hail Cesario has certainly done his part to contribute to its’ success. He’s a multiple Grade 1 winner who is capable of a 110+ figure with frightening regularity. In his last four, all at a flat mile on the lawn, he’s been sub 110 only once. Unfortunately for Hail Cesario, he’s got only one win in those four, albeit a G1 score in the Queen Sam Stakes. Catahoula was seen swallowing his beer whole after watching Hail Cesario toss down a monster career best 116 figure in an owner restricted race in Smackdown III, only to fall short of the aforementioned Zanzabar. That race may have taken a bit of steam out of him, as he’s managed only a fourth and a third in his last two outings in the G1 Jack the Man Stakes and the prestigious Canada Mile. Nonetheless, this guy, who typically shows a blazing turn of foot coming from well off the pace, has still tossed down one solid race after another. A fast pace would help his cause, and he may just get that in this field. He’s fully capable of going under the magical 1:34 mark for the mile, having done that twice in his last four races. That time looks like the benchmark for this race, and he should be primed for a top effort. Hail Cesario could be hauling around Caesar’s chariot in the winner’s circle after this race if he brings his A game to the table.

WOODYNA (Woodman-Dynaformer) A recent switch to the grass has really awakened this four year old brown blur. After toiling on the main track for 18 of his first 19 career starts, trainer one world made the definitive switch to the lawn, and this guy has simply exploded. After a facile allowance level score, this stalker went directly to Grade 1 company and nabbed the prize in the Newcastle Stakes at 8.5 furlongs. He has also run a 1:34 flat for this distance, doing so in a victorious and hard fought battle in the G3 High Lady Cup. Not possessed of tremendous gate speed nor the vicious turn of foot of Hail Cesario, he’ll probably be placed in mid pack and just fire off one 12 second furlong after another. He’ll be one of the first to get the jump on the early pacesetters, and if he works out a good trip, he can take down top honors in this field.

SHOULDN’T MATTER (North Light-Kingmambo) A colt by the uninspiring mare Dancing Queeny, this three year old is the only stakes winner tossed by his dam from four foals to make it to the track. The dark brown/bay colt is just starting to come into his own, and while he’s taking a huge step up in class, he’s shown that he’s got tremendous upside. A G3 winner at age two for trainer seek gold, he went through a rough stretch to begin his three year old season. He won his first two starts in listed company this year, but showed little, if any, improvement over his two year old form. He then bounced around a bit looking for his niche- he failed in multiple graded stakes, sometimes miserably, before finally landing at a distance he really seems to adore- the flat mile. He slowly showed improvement before making a huge jump up in performance three starts ago in a listed nine furlong stakes. Cut back to a mile in his next start, he tossed down a career top 106 figure in a just miss second in the G2 Fried Rice Mile, and then followed that with a grind it out third in the G1 Maudlin Cup, taking a slight step back with a 102 figure. His form cycle, while fairly even, does seem to indicate that he’s ready to make another move forward on Saturday. Having never gone sub 1:34, he better step up, or by the time he launches his move in the lane, the others will be long gone. Tremendous upside to this nice looking colt, but this is a very, very tall order for this three year old. It should be noted that his two best performances have come when challenging his elders. Perhaps he’s emboldened by the challenge. He’s certainly got one to embolden him now.

THE SHINING (Beat Hollow-Silver Hawk) Fairly lightly raced four year old chestnut has really stepped up his game in his last four starts. He’s flirted with longer distances with moderate success, but is another who seems to have found a real home in mile races. After a disastrous outing in the mile and a half Artful North Stakes, where he found himself thoroughly trounced by over 30 lengths, trainer lenny27 moved him back in distance to a mile, and the proverbial light went on. Wins in two of his last five include the G1 Maudlin Cup, where he posted a sharp 106 figure LTO. He’s come perilously close to the 1:34 mark in a couple of races, and his form in his last four has never been better. Yet another midpack runner, he’s going to be placed near teammates Woodyna and Shouldn’t Matter in the early going. He’ll be another looking to get first run around the far turn, which will be a critical juncture in this race. With so many late and mid-pack runners in the field, he’ll need to save some ground at some point to be a factor late. Figures to go off as the third or so choice when the gate springs open.

Who’s better at turf racing than the Euros? Nobody, that’s who (although the Aussies and Kiwis may argue that point). That aside, Team EUSA is a bit weak in this race, and will need a couple to step up large to figure. Only two of the four are proven graded stakes caliber horses, and the other remaining two are solid allowance horses, not having proved their mettle in graded company as of yet. But, there’s a surprise in here…Team EUSA may just be bringing a new found freak to the party. It’ll be a long road to haul against the the other teams, but there are some rock solid types being shipped to Texas by way of Europe on Saturday.

JOSHEBA (Alysheba-Saint Ballado) Four year old colt out of the G rated mare Lady Jo Ann is the second stakes winner tossed by her; her first foal, Golden Toque, was a two time Grade 3 winner by Seeking the Gold. Although this pedigree screams long dirt, Josheba was never more than a good allowance horse on the main track. He was switched to the grass near the end of his three year old campaign, and has been steadily climbing in the rankings ever since. He won his first stakes in a mile listed stakes, tossing down a 112 speed figure five starts back, hitting the 1:34 barrier on the nose. Two starts later, he just missed by a length in the G1 Queen Sam Stakes after making all the pace, earning a new top 113 figure. That race looks to have done something to him, and it’s not good. Either trainer coroner decided that he needed to be rated early, or he just was the victim of poor breaks in his last two. Whatever the new malady may be, it needs to get fixed, and fixed quick. Josheba is clearly at his best when he’s allowed to roll right from the gate. He’s got explosive early speed that can be stretched over a route of ground. Whether he’s developed an allergy to the starting gate, or coroner is insisting upon rating him, it clearly hasn’t worked. In his last two, he’s been a bit tardy at the break, and has quite simply spit out the bit midway through both efforts. He doesn’t have to make the lead early, but the simple fact is, he’s never reached the winner’s circle when he’s more than 2 ¼ lengths off the lead at the midpoint of call. With his main Team NASA rivals all wanting to come from off the pace, this would seem a perfect spot to let him roll early; he may not face that much pressure. That would seem to be his best chance. If he breaks alertly, look for a huge effort; if he gets shuffled into mid pack a couple of furlongs into the race, stick a fork in him. It’s that simple.

BRABASTORM (Storm Cat-Sadler’s Wells) Beautifully bred four year old is the only foal that’s ever going to be from the B rated he-mare Brabawells. As many of you may recall, Brabawells was one hell of a horse. He won the G1 Movieland Futurity at age two, and accounted himself well at age three, finishing on the board in three more Grade 1 events, all on the main track. Castrated, gussied up and sent to the speed influence Storm Cat, Brabastorm was spit out of Brabawells. After some early success on the main track at age 3, Brabastorm sort of hit the proverbial wall and was switched to the turf, where sons of Storm Cat have enjoyed a surprising amount of success. Like his daddy, Brabastorm is most effective at 8-9 furlongs. He’s managed a couple of listed wins on the lawn, but has failed miserably in G1 company. Coming off a career best 111 figure (good enough for fourth- go figure-) in the owner restricted Smackdown III race, he promptly backed up badly in his next start, absorbing a brutal beat down in the G2 Fried Rice Mile LTO. His form cycle does not inspire a lot of confidence here. He’s certainly capable of a big run, but once he goes in the tank, it usually takes him three races or so to round back into form. That’s held for almost his entire career. So, does history repeat itself here, and he takes a pounding, or does trainer Brabant have a trick or two up his sleeve? Like Josheba, he’s clearly at his best on the lead or very close to it. He’ll have to roll out of the gate, as he’s shown zero ability to come from well off the early pace. He should be part of the early mix, and if he’s not, that’s two from Team EUSA you can stick a fork in. Will there be some strategy here between Brabastorm and Josheba? Will both be hellbent on the lead? Or will one concede the lead to the other and try and make a soft pace? Lots of questions surrounding Team EUSA’s top two ranked horses in the race.

THEATROMANIA (Green Desert-Theatrical) Four year old chestnut is the first of three foals out of the B rated mare Too Theatrical. None thus far have inherited her full ability, as none have won a stakes race. The lightly raced four year old, who will make only his fifteenth career start in the World Cup, has managed to notch four of his five career wins in his last five outings. While none have been of the leave you breathless variety, he’s cleared his conditions fairly smartly for trainer racer, and while not perhaps the “next logical step”, this is the direction he looks ready to proceed in. Time only matters in jail, and while he’s not cracking any stopwatches with his times, his speed figures have been steadily climbing and his recent wins have all be fairly facile- often an indicator that a breakout race is looming on the horizon. Theatromania likes to sit midpack, where he should enjoy a lot of company, and make his move between the 3/16ths and 1/8^th pole. He’s broken the 100 figure barrier in his last two, and looks to move forward. He’ll have to improve by about eight to ten lengths to reach the winner’s circle Saturday. Improbable, but not out of the question for this horse who seems to just now be finding his best stride.

COURT ACT (Sabrehill-Golden Act) Obscurely bred yet strapping chestnut saw the lights finally go on in his last start. Never having run in triple digits, this former 20K claimer blew up in his last race, closing like a scalded dog to just miss in an open allowance while tossing down a career best 109 figure. He’s making only his 11^th career start Saturday, and he’s one of those huge question marks. Has he finally put it all together, or was his last race one of those once a year freak jobs? I don’t pretend to know, but if he duplicates his last race, he’ll have some looking over at him wondering “who the hell is that?” in deep stretch. Expect to see this confirmed late closer sitting way in the back early. When they hit the four furlong marker, a lot of questions will be asked and ultimately answered.

FENZA is much simpler than that beast of a name. We’ll stick to that. The Down Under/Over There crew has assembled a solid if unspectacular team for the Turf Mile. Once again, this team pales in comparison that the firepower Team NASA has on paper, but like the saying goes, “THAT’S WHY THEY RUN THE RACE!” Races aren’t won on paper- they’re won on the track. At least on of Team FENZA’s horses figures to compete for the winner’s check. The other three will look to add some solid points to the Team totals.

PAYCHECK (Montjeu-Green Desert) Three year old colt is currently the #4 ranked three year old turf classic horse. He’s been highly consistent for nearly his entire career, which saw him finish a close second in the BB Juvenile Turf at age 2. The lone offspring of the G rated he-mare Robbie’s Red Boy, he’s far outdistanced that one in career accomplishments through only 13 races. He’s already a Grade 1 winner, having captured the much sought after 2000 Guineas after a belated run at the Bluegrass Derby. He followed that up with a solid third in the G1 St. James Tavern, and his speed figs have begun to jump quickly. He prepped nicely for this race with an easy score in a listed stakes at 7.5 furlongs, posting a career best 109 figure while hardly drawing a deep breath. He’s a stalking sort with a great turn of foot, and he looks to really be coming into his own right now. Although this will be his first try against older horses, he certainly looks up to the task, and a small continued thrust forward puts him squarely in the hunt in this race. Trainer deyoto has done a masterful job bringing him along, and he’s looking to improve upon the early success he showed at age 2. A win here would go a long way to erasing the memory of a near miss in the Breeder’s Bowl and set him up very nicely for a return trip. In with a very, very live shot. Looks the best of any three year old in this race.

KING OF KILMORE (Lonhro-Snurge) Five year old brown horse will likely be staring at his stablemate Paycheck’s butt for most of this race. That’s not a knock on the King, but more a tribute to the ability demonstrated by Paycheck.

This guy’s been absorbing some beatings in listed company lately, and that does not bode well for Saturday. Those 100+ figures are like a distant memory, as he hasn’t popped one of those in some six races now. Might be ready for a step down in class, but he’s instead been tabbed to try this route. He can come from off the pace, but is more effective when close up early. He should get that preferred trip, since there is a dearth of early speed in this race. Regardless of trip, he’s going to have to turn back the hands of Father Time and reach well into himself to find his best effort Saturday, or he won’t figure prominently.

GALLANT DANCER (Sadler’s Wells-Daylami) Well bred four year old gray is the first foal from F rated mare Flyami Theater. The latter two who followed him have yet to win a race between them. Gallant Dancer showed great promise early in his career, winning a stakes race in only his second start. He continued on with solid productivity, and has nabbed several listed stakes during his 29 race career. He’s never been terribly impressive in graded company, however, with a fifth place showing marking his best graded effort. After a prolonged period of jumping into graded and non-graded races, trainer coffee finished out his three year old season with a string of six allowance races. The drop in class gave him some much needed time to mature, and he’s rewarded coffee with a much improved ledger at age four. He’s run a new career top of 109, and broken the century mark for speed figures in three of his five starts this season. He’s got one stakes win to show for that, but he’s been demonstrating more consistency in his efforts. He’ll see some familiar foes here, particularly some from the Smackdown III restricted race, where he finished a well beaten fifth while tossing down a respectable 105 number. He’ll have to improve on his career best to win this race, but all signs seem to indicate that he hasn’t yet reached his bottom. In with a shot if he brings his very best to Texas on Saturday.

STAR BROCCO (Brocco-Mr. Redoy) This three year old colt has his work cut out for him in a big way. Not only will he be facing his elders for the first time, he’s the only horse in the field who doesn’t show a 100 or better speed figure in his career. He’s certainly come close, running 99 on two occasions, but that’s not going to get much done in this race. Does his best running close to the pace, which figures to be fairly soft early. His last three outings have seen him improve significantly, but for Star Brocco, who’s likely to be the longest shot on the board, he’s going to have to improve to a level he has yet shown himself capable of to make much of dent on Saturday.

THE PICKS Not much speed in here, so the two front runners from Team EUSA may catch a big break early. Look for the stalkers to be very bunched up turning for home. A good trip will likely be the key here. Getting strung out wide on the far turn will probably spell doom for a bunch of runners. It’s tough not to see Hail Cesario getting it done in here, but we’re going to take a nice price and put Paycheck on top of the ticket, with Hail Cesario, Josheba and Woodyna battling it out for the next three spots. Paycheck looks ready to take it to the next level, and this is the time where three year olds really begin to step up.

Good luck to all in the World Cup!