Berkshire “Queen Sam” The Cup Runneth Over
The Group 1 “Queen Sam” at 1600 meters will be one of the headline races in Berkshire this weekend marking what some in Europe feel is the first weekend of summer stakes racing. The weather in Berkshire has been holding well and is looking to be just fabulous for the entire weekend. Bookmakers are salivating with anticipation as record crowds have been in the forecast.
The “Queen Sam” pits thirteen well meant horses traveling 1600 meters to claim the 750,000 purse.
Line makers have established Gr2 winner Jetnikoff as the 5-1 favorite after a solid outing in finishing 3rd in the” Sydney Mile”in Victoria , preceded with a win in the Gr 2 Futility Stakes in Queensland. This will be Jetnikoff’s first race back in England after starting his career slowly at 3 , requiring 5 starts before breaking his maiden at a mile. The five year old Son of Sepoy, from the manoroflad connections has seen a steady improvement in his last three races.
After being gelded in the fall of his three year old season, Cidaris went from a goofy teenager who was always looking for a little action, to a more business like animal who wanted to train rather than frolic with the other horses. Twenty-two starts and 1.8 million later he’s still on his game with a recent start that found him battling down the stretch with Sup Bro in the Champions mile, Gr 1 in Hong Kong, where he missed by two lengths after a tough stretch run. The four year old son (Lonhro) Sup Bro (nuthouse) , is also entered today and the line makers made him 15-1.
Line makers and punters alike are excited for this race because of the fat lines that are sure to set off huge celebrations for those that are keen enough to make them work to their favor.
1.) Union Pacific West (Distorted Humor X Gone West) 16 starts (4-5-1) 415,478 GR 2 winner “Adam Gene” out of the mare (Pacific Railroad). This lightly race four yr old has been a 10 panel specialist with a win and a second against group stakes competition at said distance. Cutting back to 8 panels may be a little short for this one to find a good stalking position and still have enough kick to finish. Union Pacific has been set at 15-1 which seems about right. He’s game and he’s on form so you got to like him even if the distance may be a little short. The connections of sweetfilly stables are not tipping their hat as to whether they are using this race for a prep or if he was well meant for the race. Sometimes races don’t fall where you like so you must make adjustment so things fall into place down the road. I’ll pass today on “Union Pacific West”.
2.) Take Care Of Me (Medicean (GB) X Danehill Dancer) 23 starts (6-6-4) 649,320, Gr 2 winner “Ralweigh Stakes” scratch bred. This five year old has developed rather slowly, finally finding his stride in the fall of his four year old season. He ran tow big Gr 2 races “back to back ” in the Gr2 Ralweigh stakes and the Gas Station Mile, the latter resulted in a win on a track listed as yielding. The Gas Station stakes on firm ground resulted in a tough lost after clearing the group by four and one half furlongs only to be caught at the wire by “Last Hurrah Barb” losing by a neck in a good race horse time of of 1:33 and 3/5 seconds. Take Care Of Me, of galileorock connections has been posted at 8-1 odds which I think are a little low for my liking. He’s struggled a bit in his last three which may indicate that he went over the top and may need a little freshening. I’ll pass on this one also.
3.) Houlihan (Shamardal X Dubawi (Ire) 18 starts (6-4-4) winner of 1,515,792, Gr 2 winner “Homelick Challenger” placing in multiple gr 1 races. Talking with the connections epitome stables, I was told that they feel this tough well put together 5 yr old colt can run against graded competition at all levels at distances of 8f to 9F. Looking at his form I would agree that he is very honest at those distances but I would be hoping for a real heated pace at the 8F distance. Hoilihan is a gamer, but at 6-1 and needing a little racing luck i’ll again look for another with a little more meat on the bone. Very good chance of hitting the board.
4.) Caloocan (Kingman X Kingmambo) 22 starts (10-5-1) 1,253,105, multiple G2 winner, “The Celebration and The Premium Stakes” out of the gr stakes placed mare (Goldbug). After a tough campaign in 2017 culminating in a 8th place finish in the breeders bowl. The connection, theduke106 gave the son of Kingman a much needed rest. The 2018 has seen Calcoocan go to post twice taken a overnight alw race and finishing a distant 6th in the G1 Sydney. It’s possible that his third race off a lay-off may result in a very strong effort. He also may just be nearing the end of his career. The odds of 8-1 should increase if the book makers want any action. Tough horse in his day would not be a surprise if he bounces back. Watch the post parade closely.
5.) Fastnet Eagle (Fastnet Rock (IRE) X Housebuster) 17 starts (5-2-4) 288,605, G1 Placed son of , Virgies Eagle Gr 2 winner. After 17 races where the connections of Fastnet Eagle had him at or near the lead bezza1975 decided to try something new. They drop him back and let him him make one run. He exploded when jockey M Day finally cut him loose. His move was impressive but it was only good for 3rd but it really excited the connections. bezza1975 stated that he always knew he had the talent to compete at this level, it just took us a while to figure it out. He always been so head strong that I thought by impeding his progress would result in a sour horse, either sulking or refusing to run. I’ll just say it took guts to make that call in that big of a race but it worked out. The odds are set at 23-1 which is worth a flyer. He may get the dream trip if M Day moves on him at the right time.
6.) Sup Bro (Lonhro X Kingmambo) 15 starts (5-3-5) 2,165,655, Winner of the Gr Champions Mile and Golden Shoe, scratch bred four yr old. After fifteen starts the connection of Sup Bro (nuthouse stable) decided to shorten him up and it paid off in a big way. Scoring going away in the Gr 1 Champion stakes in Hong Kong, with a speed rating of 120. Talking to people who have been watching him train, they are saying that nobody is looking better in the stable area. Look for a late run from Sup Bro as the stable says they will not be changing a thing in the approach to this race. The odds of 15-1 are very generous and I’ll be betting with both hands.
7.) Wester (Hold Me Back X Broken Vow) 16 starts (5-4-1) 739,979, winner of the Gr 2 What The Who stake, son of GP and stakes winner, Your In My Space. Another who’s last start was in the Gr1 Champions stakes in Hong Kong and resulted in a strong fourth after tracking mid pack for most of the race. Talking with the connection sremel they felt that Wester deserved another shot at the elusive grade 1 win. sremel stated that they all better bring their A games as Wester is on the muscle….. The odds of 14-1 seem to be about right but I still think he could play a part in the Tri and supers.
8.) Cidaris ( Darci Brahma X Monsun) 22 starts (12-1-3) 1,827,874, winner of the 2017 gr 1 Sydney mile, scratch bred…….. Cidaris has been a solid stakes performer through his career scoring wins in over half of his races. Speed or pressing type with proven Gr1 talent. I don’t believe fairhaven4 stables will change a thing about how this horse attacks a race. You can’t mess with success. Serious player who gets his regular rider in Radzinski who will place him where is comfortable. Odds of 9/2 are a little short but I’ll still use him because he’s the speed in here.
9.) What’s The Price (Marchfield X Johannesburg) 12 starts (5-4-2) 1,180,160, winner of the 2018 g1 Sydney Mile, out of Stakes Placed mare Hammer Price. The four year colt from the dayzey stable really seems to be hitting his stride as of late scoring his first Gr 1 victory at 17-1 in the G1 Sydney mile in Victoria. The race was his first in 2018 after a 4 month lay-off . In November of 2017 ” What’s The Game” ran a game 2nd in the Gr2 Emirates Mile.
Talking to the connection they were pretty sure that the race would have a honest pace which will hopefully set it up nicely for their colt to show his best stuff. It had been reported that “What’s The Price” Turned up with a little nick in left foot when he was stepped on during the running of the “Sydney Mile”. Spokesman for dayzey stables stated that it was really just a slight nick but they wanted it to heal up before entering another race of this caliber. The horse has to be at 100% to win against horses Grade 1 competition. Looking for a solid effort in this race as the connections have done everything right about this horse. Posted at a healthy 14-1 odds , those willing to shell out a few pounds just might be rewarded nicely. I feel he has a outside chance with another jump in his performance. Minor placing
10.) Rogue I (Frankel X Red Ransom) 13 starts (7-2-1) 710,444, Grade 1 winner of “The Locksmith” . Scratch bred
Another 4 yr old colt coming off his first Gr 1 win, in the Locksmith Grade 1 . This well balanced son of Frankel likes to lead the pack around the track from start to finish but with so many speed types in the race the pace could come up a bit hot. Talking with the connection of Rogue I, it was stated that he don’t need the lead if it’s a little hot up front. mtk76 stables have the utmost confidence in the riding of M Kelly who they think will judge the pace and make changes in on the fly. If the race is slow we’ll engage the lead but if turns up the pace is unreasonably fast we can take him off. We have total confidence in the riding of M Kelly. Another horse with things pointing in the right direction. This lightly raced horse will be right in the thick of it early in my opinion and I’m wondering if he’ll relax off he lead if it turns in a bit hot. The outside post could hinder this colt if he can’t settle in and relax. I will pass today because of the post position and the fact that he’s been on the lead in his last several races.
11.) Jetnikoff ( Sepoy X Montjeu) 16 starts (8-3-1) 643,902, Grade 2 winner “Futility Stakes” Scratch bred
Lightly race 5 yr old colt of manoroflad stables who will be looking for his first grade 1 win has been instilled as the 5-1 favorite. I’m not really sure why the line makers have taken a shine to this colt. He has been a solid performer in his recent efforts but is not as accomplished as some of the other entries. Jetnikoff has versatility that will allow his connection to attack the race from where they feel he has his best chance. I’m still thinking this group is a little tough for him. I’ll pass on Jetnikoff at 5-1 odds.
12.) Savoury (High Chaparral (IRE) X Machiavellian ) 24 starts (5-3-4) 1,328,660, Grade 1 winner of the DiCaprio Handicap, Scratch Bred
Since the start of 2018 Savoury has struggled immensely, soundly defeated in three straight graded races. Savoury’s connections have really been squeezing everything out of this Six year old colt to the point of no return. I’ve seen some strange things happen in the sim but I’m willing to put a line through this horse without even seeking an opinion from the connections. Horse needs a rest and easier competition. I would try a few alw races to get his confidence headed in the right direction.
13.) Galicier (Cape Cross X Galileo (IRE) ) 22 starts (7-4-4) 549,455, Grade 3 winner of the 8F Desmond Stk, out of the Gr3 winning mare “Galicio” .
Galicier has struggled the past 9 months trying to find a spot that he fits into. Today’s race would have work well if it turned up soft but the connection’s (stalfred) rain dance was not answered. The horse having a 9 month drought and only having a Grade 3 win on his credentials leaves him on the outside looking in. My opinion is he needs a race to build a little confidence… Grade 3 or less would be perfect. I’ll pass on this horse.
Picks 6-8-7-5
Lonshot #5 Fastnet Eagle