Juveniles Sprint in Big Sky Country
Some talented juveniles will be strutting their stuff this weekend in the Grade III Montana Futurity this weekend at five furlongs on the dirt. It’s a well-matched field, with a bunch of young ‘uns hoping to separate themselves from the rest of their class as Breeders’ Bowl time looms ever nearer.
Out of the one hole will come X’Stra Special, a Horse Chestnut son who won his debut for Goody5. I don’t think he deserves to be 21/1, but with an 8% winning jock and only one start under his belt he doesn’t deserve to be a favorite either. His opening speed fig was a perfectly respectable 74. One with potential to be a nice horse, but he has lots to prove.
Next door will be Etts10’s Three Birdies ETS. He comes into this race 2-for-2, which is about as good as it’s going to get this time of year. But those races were against 6-horse fields, so it’s fair to say he hasn’t had a tough race yet. His speed figures are very solid and his jock has a 15% win rate. 28/1 is probably excessive, but this guy, too, has lots to prove.
Third up is Worldwide’s Cheap Thriller, who is at short 5/1 odds. The Danehill Dancer son won his debut then finished third of seven in an overnight stakes. Speed figs in the low 70s are good for a young 2yo, but they won’t get it done here. He’ll need to step up some.
Roosters04’s Urban Slamdunk won his debut in a ten-horse field with a 74 fig. Very nice, but comparable to most of the horses here. With only one race under his belt, it’s impossible to say how this royally-bred son of FuPeg will turn out.
Pup brings Project Ted, a Western Fame son. He’s had a maiden win on the lawn, but hasn’t managed a win yet in two allowance tries on the dirt. That doesn’t make him a bad horse, but it almost certainly means he doesn’t belong here. 6%-winning jockey doesn’t help a bit.
In the middle is Mrenforcer’s Circumstantial. As the only graded winner in the field, Storm Cat’s son has to command respect. Also worthy of respect is his 27% winning jockey, P Wright. He won the Grade III Early Morning Special from behind last time out, eking out a gritty victory by ahead. A good deal at 6/1.
Mattsbest brings Happenings who won his debut in a six-horse field handily. His 74 speed fig puts him right in the middle of this field. It’s too soon to tell much of anything about him, but a poor jockey doesn’t help him any.Classical Brass ER comes in with a very nice jockey for Erracing, but I don’t like the fact that he’s already tried a graded field and bombed. The son of Dixieland Band had won two of two heading into the Vermont Juvie, then finished tenth. He might just need seasoning, but he doesn’t look like he’s ready for a graded field just yet.
If you want to see a horse that looks like a future superstar, look no further than Super20’s Broadway Dancer. He has only one race under his belt, but that was an easy victory in which he posted an 80 fig, the highest of any horse in this field. I don’t know if he’ll score this weekend, but he looks deadly and his pedigree says he’s a very long way from his best distance. Remember the name.
Redmonster will break from the ten hole for Hihosilver this weekend. The Vindication son finished a solid second in an overnight stakes last time out. If he can build off that showing and grow up a bit, he could do well here.
Last of all is Auld Langniner, a Langfuhr son raced by Tothetop. The most experienced horse in the field, he has run four races with two wins and a third. He made his first stakes attempt last time out, finishing a solid third. He looks like a solid runner who probably won’t win, but has an excellent shot at coming home with a paycheck.
Good luck, everyone!