Sprinters, Closers, and Championships: the Breeders Bowl Sprint

Breeders’ Bowl Sprint
Purse : $3,000,000

The six furlongs of the Sprint are the test of tests for the dirt sprinter, as there are no breaks for the leaders and a crowd of horses to run through quickly for closers.  We will find out this weekend which of these are undaunted, and which suffer from triskadekaphobia (fear of the other thirteen).  The renewal for 2017 looks a little light on the frontrunners when compared to the usual crowd of them in the real-life Sprint.  Could that mean someone gets the jump on the group of accomplished closers this time?  I would not count those closers out, as they have been consistent in quality among top-notch racers through the year.  I don’t pretend to understand the end-of-year rankings, but it will take a serious performance for someone to catch leader FALCHION for the 2017 award.  However, this is the place to make that stand.

# Horse Bred A/S Owner Jockey R W IM% USD EPnt Odds   Badges   Capper my Sire

1
BERNARDINI CAT  KY  3M  ddstables16  L Radzinski  15  5  67%  $809,970  192.00  35/1
BERNARDINI

Masterstable: Stockswami

Masterstable winning percentage: 17%

Jockey winning percentage:

Breeding:  BERNARDINI x STORM CAT x SEEKING THE GOLD (scratch bred)

Signature win: A 108 speed number earned while tracking the leaders to win the Carry Forward in July against fellow 3yos

Halloween costume: The Pink Panther

Fave Thanksgiving dish: Pumpkin pie with whipped cream

Christmas wish: Good form for the Malibu

Win strategy: Radzinski rides him better than in the faltering Everything’s Legal effort this summer, probably with a little more restraint early than BERNARDINI CAT showed in his last two contests, so that there is more in the tank to take first run at those on the front.

2
MOLEY B. DIGGING  KY  5M  zzz1  S L Ledwith  28  13  75%  $754,604  148.00  13/1
HARD SPUN

Masterstable: Steve555

Masterstable winning percentage: 24%

Jockey winning percentage:

Breeding:  HARD SPUN x SEATTLE SLEW x TOM ROLFE (winless mare)

Signature win: A 117 speed to win the Burrito Grande on this track in April, leading all the way

Halloween costume: CIA man

Fave Thanksgiving dish: Mineral supplements

Christmas wish: New bicycle

Win strategy: In hopes that his laggard performance in the Old Name was a fluke, he will flock to the early lead once more in this championship event.  Getting back to his best running style on a familiar track should put him up in the trifecta.

3
FIRST PETER  KY  4M  baggio  T Ace  19  7  53%  $1,133,250  272.00  7/1
MEDAGLIA D’ORO

Masterstable: Baggio

Masterstable winning percentage: 11%

Jockey winning percentage: 34%

Breeding:  MEDAGLIA D’ORO x WILD AGAIN x ROBERTO (scratch bred)

Signature win: A 115 speed in the Iceberg, in which he showed versatility by being closer to the pace and still powering home to the win.

Halloween costume: St. Peter

Fave Thanksgiving dish: Mashed potatoes

Christmas wish: Peace to all horsekind

Win strategy: He comes back across the country to a course he is comfortable with, and a repeat of his Pat O’Ryan tactics of laying farther back will make him very tough in this deep and speedy field.

4
THE HIGH SEPTON  KY  4M  thethumb09  K Banner  23  9  65%  $881,160  188.00  10/1
DISTORTED HUMOR

Masterstable: Lenny271

Masterstable winning percentage: 28%

Jockey winning percentage: 24%

Breeding:  DISTORTED HUMOR x GIANT’S CAUSEWAY x DEPUTY MINISTER   (winning mare)

Signature win: A 113 speed in the Due North, in which he lay near the very back and had a furious charge in the stretch.

Halloween costume: Tyrian Lannister

Fave Thanksgiving dish: Apple pie

Christmas wish: A new cloak

Win strategy: Jockey knows him well and was aboard for the Due North, but the horse has not won since.  May have been hoping for a spritz of November California rain, but that didn’t materialize.  Must make the most of his closing style and not get clogged in the stretch.

5
FALCHION  KY  4M  phillipj3  A Jolly  18  11  89%  $2,364,121  512.00  7/1
TAPIT

Masterstable: Canyongate

Masterstable winning percentage: 30%

Jockey winning percentage: 30%

Breeding:  TAPIT x STORM CAT x ALYDAR  (scratch bred)

Signature win: A 118 speed in the Sand Castle Golden Sprint, coming from back in the pack under the same jockey as today

Halloween costume: Knight

Fave Thanksgiving dish: Candied yams

Christmas wish: Xbox One X

Win strategy: As the leader of the division and a horse who hasn’t finished out of the money since 2015, he just has to stay within himself to perform well again.  The jockey will have to be watchful of the traffic situation as this horse makes his move, as these opponents are the best in the business, and a bobble here or there could put the potential Eclipse winner off the board.

6
THE BLACK OF DROGO  KY  5M  mastermelite1  M Walker  26  14  77%  $2,173,010  272.00  5/1
DISTORTED HUMOR

Masterstable: Masterm

Masterstable winning percentage: 22%

Jockey winning percentage: 15%

Breeding:  DISTORTED HUMOR x DYNAFORMER x SEATTLE SLEW (scratch bred)

Signature win: Last summer’s 121 speed in the Equinics against 19 opponents showed the best of what he can do, overcoming crowded conditions to win from a deep closing position.

Halloween costume: Dragon

Fave Thanksgiving dish: What? Oats

Christmas wish: Another chance at a mile race before he becomes a he-mare

Win strategy: He will have to get his closing kick going a little earlier as he move back from seven furlongs to six.  He is the favorite, but he will need to run like it to improve on his tenth-place finish last year.

7
CHACAITO  KY  5M  venezolano  O A Haack  25  13  92%  $733,267  116.00  14/1
WAR FRONT

Masterstable: Haack

Masterstable winning percentage: 23%

Jockey winning percentage: 22%

Breeding:  WAR FRONT x DISTORTED HUMOR x GHOSTZAPPER (graded placed mare)

Signature win: A 112 speed in the Smokentate Dash, a five-furlong listed affair up in Washington in June.  That hard-fought win planted the seed in the trainer’s mind that he might be up to Grade 1 company, as confirmed in his last race.

Halloween costume: Simon Bolivar

Fave Thanksgiving dish: Vegetarian stuffing

Christmas wish: Lots of ponche crema

Win strategy: With his success at five furlongs, he is likely to be challenging for the lead; there are enough deep closers in here that it could be a successful strategy for him.

8
HE’S IN SHAPE  KY  3M  primus2  N Bonus  9  4  67%  $449,940  116.00  19/1
TAPIT

Masterstable: Jacklad

Masterstable winning percentage: 17%

Jockey winning percentage: 25%

Breeding:  TAPIT x DISTORTED HUMOR x STORM CAT   (Grade 1-winning mare)

Signature win: A 116 in the Everything’s Legal, which is a formidable speed for a 3yo

Halloween costume: Thor

Fave Thanksgiving dish: Brussels sprouts

Christmas wish: New exercise pool

Win strategy: Get some breathers early, but be at the front of the pack of closers so that he gets the first clear run at the frontrunners.  Also, display a little of that improvement that can strike the sophomores at this time of year and surprise the elders.

9
DANZIG ON HOLIDAYS  KY  4M  marineboy1  A Arthur  17  9  76%  $1,056,580  212.00  9/1
SPEIGHTSTOWN

Masterstable: Broohar

Masterstable winning percentage: 13%

Jockey winning percentage: 16%

Breeding:  SPEIGHTSTOWN x DANZIG x BROAD BRUSH (scratch bred)

Signature win: A 114 speed in the Old Name, the prep for this race; he had a masterful move from the rear of the field to take the victory by a length

Halloween costume: Glenn Danzig

Fave Thanksgiving dish:  Green bean casserole

Christmas wish:  Dreaming of a run at handicap division next year, as he has not tried route racing yet.

Win strategy: Pairing with this jockey has not gone well in the past, so the hope would be it doesn’t matter this time, and he can unleash the same late move that has won his last two races.

10
GOTHAM CITY CADET  KY  5M  cadet5  V Gardner  20  7  80%  $608,024  140.00  8/1
MORE THAN READY

Masterstable: Cadet

Masterstable winning percentage: 22%

Jockey winning percentage: 19%

Breeding:  MORE THAN READY x CARSON CITY x WILD AGAIN  (scratch bred)

Signature win: A 115 speed in the Foolish Tom, his lone graded win, which came in July; late finish to win

Halloween costume: The Batman

Fave Thanksgiving dish: Slice of cheese pizza

Christmas wish: Catch the Joker

Win strategy: In a field choked with closers, getting a good break from this post may be advantageous; needs top of form to win.

11
FORTIES OF MALIBU  KY  5M  mtkinde  M Kelly  24  8  54%  $1,055,936  144.50  16/1
MALIBU MOON

Masterstable: Mtk76

Masterstable winning percentage: 18%

Jockey winning percentage: 20%

Breeding:  MALIBU MOON x STREET CRY x FORTY NINER  (stakes-winning mare)

Signature win: It’s been a while, as it would have to be the Double F Memorial last November, where he earned a 114 speed

Halloween costume: Tupac

Fave Thanksgiving dish: Avocado kale salad

Christmas wish: Grammy win for his newest single

Win strategy: Given recent performances, his best strategy may be to lay behind the leaders and save some gas to try to upset all the low-odds closers.

12
HEADLESS CADET  KY  4M  cner  R Heller  19  9  84%  $1,515,930  131.00  9/1
GHOSTZAPPER

Masterstable: Cadet (#2)

Masterstable winning percentage: 22%

Jockey winning percentage: 12%

Breeding: GHOSTZAPPER x A.P. INDY x MR. PROSPECTOR  (Grade 1-winning mare)

Signature win: Since his most recent wins are allowances, we will go back to the Prince’s Knight score last summer when he was a 3yo; in that, he ran a 115 that day, sweeping from behind for the win under today’s jockey.

Halloween costume: Ichabod Crane

Fave Thanksgiving dish: Cole slaw

Christmas wish: A prosthetic head

Win strategy: His sixth-place finish in the Sprint last year was solid enough, and he ran his style of race, and recent speeds and performances point to a strategy to try to find space in the lane for a placing.

13
FABREGAS SOLER  KY  6M  holdme  K Ledwith  26  12  88%  $4,325,260  300.00  6/1
TAPIT

Masterstable: Masterm (#2)

Masterstable winning percentage: 22%

Jockey winning percentage: 30%

Breeding:  TAPIT x SEEKING THE GOLD x BROAD BRUSH  (scratch bred)

Signature win: There really have to be two, as he’s the defending champion here, having earned a monster 121 last year, also in California, and this year there is the 119 in the Foregone, which showed there is still top-level talent in an otherwise unassuming campaign.

Halloween costume: Soccer goal

Fave Thanksgiving dish: Red wine

Christmas wish: Gains the points to beat Falchion for the end of year award.

Win strategy: He returns to the jockey that won the sprint last year, and may have a good spot in that he does not need the lead but has the early speed to get a serious jump on all these closers.  He needs to avoid whatever went wrong last out in the Iceberg, whether it was a speed duel or what have you; if it is that he is a step slower now, it will be hard for him to repeat.

14
BUZZING QUALITY  KY  3M  gipper3  A Craig  16  11  81%  $1,125,300  232.00  19/1
QUALITY ROAD

Masterstable: Gipper

Masterstable winning percentage: 15%

Jockey winning percentage: 24%

Breeding:  QUALITY ROAD x DEPUTY MINISTER x STORM CAT (stakes-winning mare)

Signature win: A 113 in the Prince’s Knight, which led him to the #1 ranking for 3yo sprinters

Halloween costume: Bumble bee

Fave Thanksgiving dish: Turnips

Christmas wish: A return to the Breeders Bowl Sprint next year as the favorite

Win strategy: As he has won nine of ten, with the lone exception the loss to HE’S IN SHAPE in the Everything’s Legal, he probably doesn’t need to worry about a strategy and just run his race.  A win today would mean he has not been tested to his depths in those many wins, but regardless he looks like one to watch over the next year.