If I Say The ‘Soupy Sails’ Is A ‘Wonderama’, How Many Of You Would Get It?
Amid the hullabaloo of Bluegrass Derby weekend, there are other races to be had, you know. This year, the Grade II, $250,000 Soupy Sales Classic is the only graded race for older horses on dirt for Derby Week, in the handicap classic division. It’s a mile-and-an-eighth over a fast Illinois track, and while the elite horses in the division seem to be taking a pass, this looks like a golden opportunity for a rising star to take a graded race within the division.
The star of the field looks to be Call Of The Wild, 2005 Breeders Bowl Classic champion, seventeenth-ranked horse in the division and winner of over $9.3 million in his career. He comes in off a Grade I win last out, and looks to inch closer to the $10 million mark in earnings. He faces a challenge just to his outside from Intergalactic, ranked thirteenth and the Middle Jewel runner-up from last season whose early season form from last year has been sporadic in returning at 4. Then there’s those seeking status in the handicap division, like Grand D’Inverne, who looks for his first graded win after a slew of allowance wins, and Formulated Risk, a Grade III winner from earlier in the year who seeks out another big graded win to help him ascend.
In seven previous runnings of this event, esteemed horses such as Stormy Prospector, Bird Penguin and Alyhonor have etched their names into the record books. The stakes record of 1:46 4/5 was set in 2002 by Bird Penguin, and these horses are going to have a lot to live up to in order to pose a threat to that standard. Here’s who they be:
I Come To Play(IRE) [Catcher In The Rye(IRE)-Nine Ghost, by Be My Guest, trained by chibound2] has the capacity to come to play with the big ones at graded level, with a Grade II win in last year’s Insulin Cap at Indiana. A seven-time stakes winner, he’s versatile enough to stalk or close as the situation dictates. He won his season opener from off the pace at British Columbia four back, but recently his tactics have come up a bit short. He was third in each of his last two, including the Grade III Bertrando last time behind Call Of The Wild and Formulated Risk where he ran evenly but not quite inspired enough. He’s going to have to make a critical choice here, or at least his jockey will: with a lot of horses preferring to be at or near the front end in this field, he may need to either try to keep up early on, or hope for an aggressive pace among so many preferred front-runners so that a late closing kick becomes fruitful.
Grand D’Inverne [Galileo(IRE) x Cigar, trained by umea] is one of the main speeds in this field, and is certainly sure of himself ahead of a crowd. Two back, in a listed Vermont stakes, he had a wild time alone in front, opening up nine lengths on the field before gearing down late for an almost four-length win and a 112 speed figure. That was his second win in a row, but he couldn’t make the experience count when tackling graded foes in the Bertrando last time, stalking early but fading to fifth. He doesn’t necessarily need to be the sole pacesetter in a race, but the best results for him have come in that general direction. He’s 3-for-6 going nine furlongs, and the numbers definitely prove he belongs at this level. But in a sense, this race could be a repeat of the Bertrando, in which there’s a lot of front-running styles lining up for a go at the lead, and someone gets caught in that shuffle. The tiebreaker might just be experience at this level, and on that count, this horse, making just his second appearance in a graded stakes, might just come up short. A bit more seasoning, and class won’t matter for this one.
Mr. V.I.P. [Stephen Got Even-Seaside View, by Unbridled, trained by qwikvett1] still qualifies for a NW2x allowance, in only a brief, eight-race career. But his connections see the same kind of life signs as many others in an allowance event at this distance three back. He wired an entry-level allowance field at this distance and earned a 101 in an impressive performance, but in two starts since the bubble has burst a bit versus a second-level condition, as first he faded badly after a half-mile in the lead going ten furlongs, then cut back to nine and just faded early in an improved performance. But the difference between that eye-opening win and his subsequent races is that the 101 versus lesser went down sharply, to a speed figure of 81, then a 94, against his current allowance level. This is his stakes debut, and no doubt his connections want to send him out early. That tactic, as has already been mentioned here, is not exactly an original idea among these contenders, and these horses appear to be just more established in their careers than this one is at present. It’s a shot in the dark in a major race that didn’t draw a full field, something I have done before myself, for both the ambition and the training technique (hoping that the benefits of a sharp class rise could be felt upon a return to the normal allowance condition), but with just the one triple-digit speed figure to recommend him, and the fact that at least a high-100s speed figure typically wins a graded race, it’s difficult to recommend this four-year-old colt in this spot. He should have a solid future of some sort, and when he goes back to his allowance conditions he should be a tough customer, but this might be too much, too soon.
So Slew Me [Belong To Me-No More Storms, by Seattle Slew, trained by babyfarms] likes to stalk. The lead isn’t necessarily his choice, but sitting right off of it is heaven for him. That’s what he’s done while earning $1.2 million in a three-year career, and this four-year-old seems to be just getting started. After a failure to launch in last year’s Triple Crown chase, his connections placed him on a steady diet of middle-distance routes designed to make him a dependable handicap horse. He’s still working on getting the hang of things, but he has a string of graded placements, including a pair of seconds in last fall’s Grade III Winchester Park Derby and this spring’s Grade III Winchester Cap. Both Winchester races earned identical speed figures of 111 for him, as did an actual stakes win in California last December, where he opened up about nine lengths on the field before just hanging in to win by a length and three-quarters. He set the pace before tiring last out in the Bertrando, and the resulting 98 seems to fall off considerably from his recent tries at a mile. He’ll want to be up front again, but in his recent form, he’s got the same trouble as the above two horses, in that there’s too many pace chefs in this field wanting to be in control, and while this colt has some back class and has previously shown appreciation for the distance, maybe he’s a miler at heart, as his pedigree rather suggests.
Formulated Risk [Beat Hollow(GB)-Carolina Roll, by Bahri, trained by karen] is formidable since the claim. Nabbed for a $30,000 tag last October after a string of solid if unspectacular grass races, upon switching back to dirt, this horse really took off in a hurry. He won two listed stakes and was three times graded-placed before winning the Grade III Saints Handicap in March. After a Grade I Arkansas flop, he closed strongly to get second in that very busy prep, yup, the Bertrando Handicap again. With eight straight races earning speed figures of 100 or better coming in, and an average speed figure of 106.6 in these last eight starts, it could be that this horse is the real deal. And the race on paper shapes up to be a closer-friendly event, which this horse prefers. He’s not a real deep closer, but can come from off the pace as needed, and with so much theoretical pace, it appears to work to the benefit of a hot closer like this one seems to be. He’s 2-of-6 at this distance on the dirt, but if there’s something on the down side, it’s that his most recent speed figures for the distance, a 105 in the Bertrando and a 102 two back at Arkansas, are good but not great speed figures when compared to some of the hotter runners assembled here. But he’s a “now” horse with an agreeable closing dash in a field heavy with speedy types, and should have a say in the final half-mile.
Emily’s Best [Pleasant Tap-Mike’s Emily, by Western Borders, trained by chbrown] is no stranger to stakes races, with a stakes win at 3, but looking at his past performances, it’s just been until now that he might have been truly ready for a return to stakes activity. He won the Fit Abdul in Nevada sixteen months ago, but found the going rougher when stepping up and/or stretching out, so his connections wisely thought it prudent to pull back on the ambition and let the colt get through his conditions before trying stakes again. In nine allowance races, he won but twice, but got to improve his speed figures and never failed to bring home a paycheck in each start. After closing out his allowance conditions with a win in Vermont and a 107, he’s back in stakes action, but is he ready to return to a graded stakes race? Last time he tried this level, he was seventh in the mud against three-year-olds last spring, but has since hit triple-digit figures three times, including that recent 107. That number is quite good, no matter how you slice it, but it still does pale against the established stakes horses. Count him among those who prefer to make a mad dash late, and watch to see how he handles the step up in class; the number’s not quite as good as others, but he’s improved those figures in his last two outings, so if the trend holds, he could be in for a piece.
Saddle A Niner Ted [Forty Niner x Sadler’s Wells, trained by stakes] has impeccable breeding, but not a lot of stakes experience. His highest finish in three stakes outings has been fifth, but on the plus side, that fifth came most recently, two races ago in Iowa. He’ll add his voice to those on the lead. But this will mark his first time going nine furlongs in a stakes, and what a place to give it a shot, against some fine older horses. He’s a very fast miler, as shown in a Washington allowance four starts back, when he wired the field and stopped the clock in 1:34 1/5. That earned him a good 111 figure, a fine effort for an open, unconditioned allowance. The distance is an open question, though the pedigree suggests it might not be that much of a factor, and he has won at a mile-and-a-sixteenth previously. But where he’s earned a host of triple-digit figures at a mile, his best figure at eight-and-a-half furlongs is just a 99. Add that to his running style not exactly being an original idea inside this field, and it spells trouble for him. He might be fastest of all, with his swift mile times, in here, but it has to strech a furlong beyond his previous successes, and on that score, the jury’s still out.
King Of Dance [Kingmambo x Seattle Slew, trained by coolk] also has a credibility problem with the distance in spite of his overall skills. He does have a race beyond nine furlongs, but that was a tiring fourth going nine-and-a-half furlongs in a Mississippi stakes race. He too is a fast miller who likes to go out winging up front early—they should have a secret handshake, all those early potential pacesetters—but even if nine of ten starts have earned him triple digits in the speed figures, peaking with a 109, these races were either at a flat mile or seven-and-a-half furlongs. The distance is an issue, but the speed certainly is not, as he’s run a mile as fast as 1:34 2/5. A lot of speed tends to burn a lot of folks up, and this five-year-old not only has the many frontrunners to compete against, but his lack of graded seasoning as well; his only graded try was a tiring eighth in the Middle Ground Mile in the mud last September. He’s like Saddle A Niner Ted in that regard, and watching these two in a shorter race would be fascinating, but both might wind up burning up here instead of staying. Still, expect either one of them to take their best shot at the pace.
Wings Of War [Beat Hollow(GB)-In The Clouds(GB), by In The Wings(GB), trained by thepict] is in the second half of a long career, and takes a shot at a graded race. Much of the first half was spent bouncing between claimers and allowances, and not racing beyond a mile-and-a-sixteenth until last October. At that moment, his stock slowly began to rise, with a string of competitive races marking steady improvement. In his last seven races since switching back to dirt from the grass, he’s earned an allowance win, has hit the board four other times, and has earned a check in six of them. His speed figures are at their most consistently highest in the last two-and-a-half years, also. But the downside is that they remain only in the mid-to-upper 90s, far below what the more experienced graded runners here are capable of. He usually goes to the front end, but is versatile enough to try coming from off the pace, which could prove to be his best course of action. He’s well-bred, and rejuvenated at 6, and may not see another claimer for quite a long time, but he’s certainly a big price in here for a reason.
Open The Gate [Jump Start x Distant View, trained by deantroops] is a veteran who also is known for his closing from from back in the pack. A stakes winner in Tennessee last out, he’s a multiple graded winner with some solid mid-pack credentials (although if required he is capable of turning into a stalker). He was too close to the front two back in the Grade I Oaktree, fading from the lead to seventh, but the With Next Year In Mind was more his style, when he closed well to get second. He won the Grade II Windy City Gold Cup last fall, so he has abilities against graded opposition, but his recent numbers put him closer to the middle of the field, so he may need the expected pace pressure to set up for a good late run like he’s able to exhibit in big races, and he might require some extra ground to take full advantage of it. The experience gained from a race over this surface, along with the late charge, does give him an edge here over others; it’s possible picking up the slack late could net him a share of the purse.
Al Hirt [Dixieland Band x Kris S., trained by zoomr] is named for the king of “Java”, but has yet to reach the same regal heights on the track. Still eligible for a NW4x, this four-year-old colt does own a graded win in last year’s Grade II Captain Hook, but has not won since that impressive sophomore stakes. In spite of the lack of wins in a calendar year, he’s been surprisingly consistent, with a paycheck being earned in nine of his last ten races. He’s knocked on a lot of doors in stakes races, but only came closest in a pair of listed races last December, finishing second twice. Getting him over the hump against the best in the handicap division has been somewhat frustrating for him, but he still has cashed checks and run some reasonably good speed figures this past year. His best was a 110 in Oklahoma in his last 2006 race, but he’s been steadily in the mid-100 range. He’s a mid-pack closer, and hopes to benefit from a surplus of speed here, and the distance is no issue at all, but even in a slump, he’s dependable enough to be in for a share of the purse under any circumstance. Plus, a sleeping giant is always in danger of waking up at a moment’s notice.
Call Of The Wild [War Chant-Mammoth Jenn, bu Nureyev, trained by gipper8] has already earned the respect of his Sim kin. The 2005 Breeders Bowl Classic winner, he’s just shy of $10 million in career monies, and the winner of ten out of twenty-nine starts. But since the BB win, he’s been MIA to a certain extent. It took him over six months to win a race following that triumph, in last June’s New Hampshire Handicap, and then another eight months to get his second win. But in 2007, he’s already won twice, most impressively last out in the Bertrando. Sitting chilly off the early leaders could be beneficial here, but the fact that this six-year-old is still capable of speed figures as high as the Bertrando was (a 108) makes him most potent. Nine furlongs is at the shallow end of his range, but as long as he doesn’t mind, his foes are better off not mentioning it to him. His resurgence combined with his back class make him the most serious of threats, but he’ll need to possibly run even faster than the Bertrando just to make sure.
Intergalactic [Aptitude x Unbridled, trained by eddie72], I wrote last spring before the Fedirico, “has all the signs of possibly becoming a summer sophomore star.” Not to congratulate myself, too much, but when I’m right, I’m reasonably right. He won the Fedirico, was second in the Middle Jewel, the Princess Cup, and the Swamps, all back-to-back-to-back-to-back last spring and summer. That’s where the fun ended, and he didn’t win another race until October, and not another graded until January, in the Maxxed Platinum Plate Cap, an authoritative wire job aided by the slop he enjoys so much. Trips to California and Dubai found him cashing checks but off the board. Here, he draws an outside post, and should enjoy some tactical speed; he can go gate-to-wire but has done better by sitting just out of the pace battles. He’s still trying to put together some truly great speed figures in his profile, but he’s capable of running in the mid-100s at his best. He’ll need that best effort here, and the post likely doesn’t do him any favors. Still, he’s put together a strong resumé and with proper positioning should be a player in the race’s final stages. A second graded win this year would solidify the prediction I had for him a year ago.
The selections:
1. Call Of The Wild
2. Formulated Risk
3. Intergalactic
4. So Slew Me
5. I Come To Play(IRE)
Good luck to all, and happy racing.