Dirt-loving ladies run in Mike’s Hometown Cap
The distaff division takes to the Kentucky track for the ninth running of the G2 Mike’s Hometown Cap. The 8.5 furlong race is run for a cool $250k, and has had some premier winners in recent years. Super-mare Otto History won the race in 2006 for trainer capsized. Alybobbob’s Expect’ N Miracles set the stakes record in 1:41 flat in 2003.
K’s Joan Bach is back after finishing third here last year. Verdugote’s 9-2 favorite has to be considered highly dangerous here. She’s run at least 100 every race since August 2005, and hasn’t run out of the top 3 in more than a year. If ever there was a lock to hot the board, this 5yo Forestry mare is it. I’d like her a lot more if this race was 9f, but she’s still got an excellent shot.
Controversial trainer Champions4 enters Wild Cat Tales at 5-1. The 5yo Tale Of The Cat mare has slowed down a bit in her last two starts, but those subpar performances may be due to being out of shape after a midwinter break. She’s hasn’t won since September (5 starts back) but don’t let that fool you – she’s got a tremendous closing kick that sees her hit the board better than two-thirds of the time. Awesome mare ran fifth here last year. Too bad the rain that fell this weekend in “real Kentucky” didn’t hit the sim as well – WCT is undefeated on an offtrack.
A year ago Monksfield’s Armed With Money was prepping for the Bluegrass Oaks. She finished that day a winner, on her way to an Eclipse award. She’s back looking to make her mark as an early Eclipse favorite. So far so good, with a G2 to open the year, and a superb run in the G1 Sand Castle Classic against the boys last time out. She was the only horse still in the running behind Ermington Pegasus. I hope we get to see this Military filly take on the boys again. In the meantime, she’ll enjoy beating up on her own sex, as she’s very likely to do in this race. Consider 6-1 a gift and drop some cash on her.
Scream’s Master and Command is also 6-1. The 5yo Montjeu hasn’t won at this distance since July, but don’t count her out. She likes to run from mid-pack Last race she made a game run but fell short by about three to Sign Of The Devil. She’s earned her best SPs at 9f, but is graded-placed at 8.5 and has to be respected here.
The aforementioned Sign Of The Devil pulled off a great wire to wire victory last out in the G3 Dirtydishragyou She’s spent her last four starts at 8.5, and won three of them. The 4yo Awesome Again filly seem to have really found her stride since her birthday. Watch for her to set the pace and try to hold off the late charge she’s sure to face. Really have to like Greenapple’s filly here.
As is the case with nearly every graded stake this week, super-trainer Lenny has an entrant here. Vindependence Day, trained out of lenny13, comes in with a three-race win streak at the listed level. The Vindication filly leads or stalks as necessary, and is undefeated at 8.5 on dirt. Of course, she’s only gone 8.5 on dirt once, but hey, she won it by almost 2. 9-1 with an excellent shot.
And we have another Vindi filly. Theleague’s Broadway Angel was runnerup to Sign Of The Devil in the Dirtydishragyou last time out. She was just three-quarters of a length from pulling off a coming from behind win. She normally doesn’t come from so far back, but it was the closest she’s been to the winner’s circle since August. If she drops so far back this time, maybe she can get the W. Or, she might simply be outclosed by some of the other fillies. 10-1.
Super enters the 4yo Stravinsky filly Whip Smart, running for the wistful stable at 11-1 on the morning line. She’s just shy of $1 million in earnings, and would hit the mark with a fourth or better here. She’s certainly capable, although hasn’t won at this distance since she was a 2yo. Was second last time out at 9 in the G2 Jump Start. Dropping distance, combined with 5 weeks between races, could see her hit the board again.
At 13-1, Troubled might find herself in trouble here. Smokers’ 5yo Fit To Fight mare is a nice runner, with seven wins from 17 starts. She’s yet to win a stake at any level, however, and in two tries has not finished better than forth in graded company. That fourth was six weeks ago in the G1 Orange Blossom at 8.5f. Both Master And Command and K’s Joan Bach finished ahead of Troubled in that race. The mare can run low 100s, but until she can win a listed stake, it’s hard to back her in this company.
Arazi A. P. scored a huge win in a 8.5f listed stake last time out. The 109SP she posted told trainer Mossbunker to get her the Arazi filly to graded company pronto. She’s unbeaten in two starts at this distance, where she earned her two highest SPs. She’s pretty fleet, and loves to be on the lead. Likely to bounce off that big win, but if you want to bet a longshot, her 14-1 odds are pretty attractive.
We’ve got two at 17-1. The first is Perpignan, trained by Barcelona. The 5yo Sakhee mare she’s making her first stakes attempt. After a front-running 1 1/2 length score in an allowance at this distance last time out, her trainer must have felt that she merited a shot. The 105SP she earned puts her squarely on oar with the best SPs of her competitors, but it was her best ever, and the class jump may not be so easy, especially against the likes of K’s Joan Bach and Armed With Money.
Jbenisz trains the other 17-1 horse, the 5yo Dixieland Band mare JB Dixie Cup. Has 6 wins and 7 more top-3s in 22 starts, with a high SP of 1-8 (earned at this distance in a T allowance in August). She’s tried listed company twice in 22 starts, but never finished better than seventh. Her graded debut isn’t likely to be pretty.
The 54-1 No Speaka De Eng drew the rail post. Mccoy’s 3yo Saarland filly gets the very daunting task of taking on elders, and very very good elders at that. She’s got a great 50% win rate, but three stakes tries have seen her run fifth, third, and most recently second. she’s also never gone longer than a mile. Could be competitive in grades down the road, but not in this field.
The final entrant is the 73-1 Tactical Rat. Edenridge’s 3yo Tactical Cat filly faces a rougher time that No Speaka in many ways. The Rat is a graded winner (G2 Boca at 8.5f in December) but her SPs have not exceeded 90 since the New Year. she’s got four wins, but 3 were won in wire to wire fashion, and the second was nearly so (she was just a quarter-length out through the first call). Flashed brilliance at 2, hasn’t improved at 3, has no chance here.
The best of this field really are Armed With Money, K’s Joan Bach, Wild Cat Tales, and Vindependence Day. Sign Of The Times also can’t be counted out. Should be an awesome race.