FASTEST HORSE IN SIMLAND 12/4/2016

Well it’s taken a few weeks however we have a new fastest horse in Simland with Fear The Freak losing his mantle….. move over there is a new Usain Bolt in town.

 

Each week Zapspride posts his ‘Top 25 Speeds of the Week’ article which lists (as the name suggests) the fastest 25 horses in Simulated racing as well as the 25 fastest 2 year olds.

Here we take a look at the raw data to see what (if any) patterns emerge from the fastest horses in the Sim.

Conclusions so far:

1. Breed colts/geldings – over represented each week in the fastest SP’s (So far 9/10 are boys)
2. Breed milers – 8f seems to be where the fastest horses are seen

 

My whole analysis is based on 12 ‘factors’. The first 6 are TRAINING factors and the last 6 are BREEDING factors:

 

1. Time Of Debut – A very important training consideration. We know that there is an in built ‘wear & tear’ factor in the game. As horses race, a little bit each time gets nipped off their lifespan. This is the simulated version of joint wear and tear and other bodily injury/fatigue sustained during a horse’s career. Does debuting a horse early really effect their ability down the track? Does the month of the debut drastically effect later output?

 

2. Two Year Old Runs – We are told and presume that the more a horse races then as a general rule the harder the wear and tear and most likely the earlier a horse’s career will be ended. Is this reflected in our fastest horses? Does the 2yo each week have a pattern – are they lightly raced or are they all used up as 2yo to attain the SP? Are we seeing older horses that had any races as 2yo? Many? None? Is there a pattern to in this regard to our weekly fastest horse?

 

3. Time Between Runs – So we all know backing a horse up at 7 day intervals really doesn’t work very well unless you’re hoping to be the Hot Race king and clean up your 2yo first 10 starts on the trot. However what is the most beneficial time between races? Many trainers suggest no less than 6, others say 4 – 6, others say so long as a minimum of 3 weeks you’ll be fine and others are of the opinion that so long as it’s not a regular thing 2 weeks is also ok. 2 year olds need to be given even longer. Who’s right? Who’s wrong? Are we all right? Or are we all wrong? Who knows that’s part of the beauty of this great game that we all have different opinions and seem to be able to get the most out of our horses……. Or do we?

 

 

4. Class Drop – Did this horse drop back in class to attain the SP? Many trainers believe that dropping a horse back in class will result in an improved performance. eg dropping back from a G1 to G3 or ungraded stakes to an alw, etc.

 

 

5. Distance Drop – Very similar to ‘Class Drop’ it is thought within the sim training community that dropping back in distance can likewise yield huge improvements in performance

 

6. Surface Switch – Many times a horse will seemingly prefer one surface then run into a dead end of performance. This can be the game’s way of intuitively directing trainers to where their horse is best placed. I know one trainer who if their horse doesn’t win (or run very well) after 2 consecutive starts on any given surface that this is enough to make the switch. How many times racing before making the switch is an individual trainer preference however here we will look for a pattern in this aspect.

 

7. Current Sire Cost – Each week this will be measured based on breeding points (as credits can be unknown when being bought over 1000). The measurement will be taken at the time of writing the article so is prone to fluctuation.

 

8. Available on Credits – A simple measure of the 3 sires that were used in the breeding as to whether they are currently available on credits to see if there is any pattern here. Listed in the format S/DS/DDS.

 

9. Scratchbred or Dam – Is the horse from a mare (and if so how good was the mare? What surface did she prefer?) or was the horse bred from scratch.

 

10. Dosage – Many in the sim believe dosage is very important in determining performance of the offspring, while others are not so convinced. This will be a simple look at whether dosage in this case has lined up with the result seen (as I presume top SP of the week is achieved at ideal surface/distance/class for any given horse.) I won’t go into the ins and outs of dosage there are a number of great articles on dosage I’ll just post it here to allow you guys to make your own deductions.

 

11. Inbreeding – Is the horse inbred through the 3 x 4 breeding box and if so who to and how many times. This box I refer to is the one generated from the 3 sire panel for every horse when you click on any given horse’s 3 sire breeding combination.

 

12. Sire Ratio – All game sires are rated as either (R) or (S) ie. Route or Speed and also (T) or (D) ie. Turf or Dirt. Many trainers like to use different combinations of route and speed when breeding however is this playing a role? Is it important at all? Are certain combinations working better than others? Are the highest sps correlating in any way to the sire ratio. This will be written in the order S/DS/DDS as per other categories here. Likewise do mixtures of Turf and Dirt breeds work? Or does it mess horses up? Does it even matter? Or is a consistent approach better and produce more reliable results?

 

THE FASTEST HORSES IN SIMLAND THIS WEEK ARE……………..

 

USAIN BOLT:      SP: 123.6724

‘Tap Suzy’ (Tapit x Forty Niner x Danzig),   3yo colt. Ungraded Stakes Winner.

  

	R	W	P	S	$
Career	8	4	1	1	$174,335
Dirt	8	4	1	1	$174,335
Turf	0	0	0	0	$0
Poly	0	0	0	0	$0
Sprint	0	0	0	0	$0
Routes	8	4	1	1	$174,335
Off	0	0	0	0	$0

 

 

1. Time Of Debut: October 2yo

2. Two Year Old Runs: 2

3. Time Between Runs: Random and lightly raced. As a 2yo backed up 4 weeks after debut then 6 weekly after that. Had a 3.5 month spell after his 4^th career start and since then as a 3yo spaced 6 – 8 weekly between runs.

4. Class Drop: NO

5. Distance Drop: YES. Dropped 0.5f to 8f for this SP

6. Surface Switch: NO

7. Current Sire Cost (BP’s): 1000/1000/586

8. Available on Credits: NO/NO/NO

9. Scratchbred or Dam: Dam. Graded placed winner of over 500k on dirt. Has already produced a G1 winner by Bernadini and a G2 winner by the same sire from just 5 foals. This mare is a weapon!

10. Dosage: DI : 3.21 | CD : 0.73
9-15-13-2-1

11. Inbreeding: NO

12. Sire Ratio: DR/DS/DS

 

 

 

 

BILLY THE KID:    SP: 98.155

‘Dark Maduro’ (Intello x Manduro x Grandera). 2yo colt.  Ungraded Stakes Winner.

	R	W	P	S	$
Career	7	3	1	0	$163,355
Dirt	0	0	0	0	$0
Turf	7	3	1	0	$163,355
Poly	0	0	0	0	$0
Sprint	5	2	1	0	$92,105
Routes	2	1	0	0	$71,250
Off	1	1	0	0	$23,580

 

1. Time Of Debut: March 2yo

2. Two Year Old Runs: 7

3. Time Between Runs: 6-7 weeks between runs

4. Class Drop: YES. Dropped from  G2 to ungraded stakes

5. Distance Drop: NO. increased 0.5f to 8.5f

6. Surface Switch: NO

7. Current Sire Cost (BP’s): 224/191/39

8. Available on Credits: YES/YES/YES

9. Scratchbred or Dam: Dam. Winner 77k on turf.

10. Dosage: DI : 0.65 | CD : -0.14
1-1-7-5-0

11. Inbreeding: NO

12. Sire Ratio: TS/TR/TR

 

 

 

 

 1.    HONOUR ROLL

SIM WEEK	USAIN BOLT	BILLY THE KID
6th November 2016	Outback Kialla	Warriors Danz Ted
13th November 2016	Fear The Freak	Sand Tempest
20th November 2016	Streets of Sin	Two Dozen Roses
27TH November 2016	Darkside Will	Hyperactivity
4th December 2016	Tap Suzy	Dark Maduro

 

 

2.    TRAINER LEADER BOARD

Robscoobi          2

Vyz                       2

Lenny271           2

Knightmare        2

Balata                  2

Amir1605           1

Woodenjock      1

Asmussen           1

Dixiedotco          1

Lightng99           1

 

 

3.    SIRE LEADER BOARD

USAIN BOLT	BILLY THE KID
Awesome Again  2	Majestic Warrior  1
Street Cry 1	Trippi   1
Will Take Charge 1	Distorted Humor 1
Tapit    1	City Zip      1
	Intello

 

 

4. FASTEST HORSE IN SIMLAND   :     Tap Suzy  123.672

 

 

5.    SERIES SUMMARY

 n=5

	Usain Bolt	Billy The Kid
Time of Debut	2yo: 4           3yo: 1        4yo:0	Jan-June:5        July-Dec:0
2yo Runs	0:1       1-3: 2       3-5:2       6+:	1-3:           3-5:1           6+:4
Time Between Runs	<3w:           3-4w:          4w+:5	<3w:           3-4w:          4w+:5
Class Drop	No: 4             Yes:1	No:3             Yes:2
Distance Drop	No: 4            Yes:1	No:4              Yes:1
Surface Switch	No: 5             Yes:	No:5              Yes:
Current Sire Cost	<1250:1           >1250:4	<1250:2           >1250:3
Available on Credits	YES:              NO: 5	YES: 2              NO: 3
Scratchbred or Dam	Scratch:2              Dam:3	Scratch:3             Dam:2
Dosage	YES:5             NO: YES:5              NO: Surface                  Distance	YES:4             NO:1 YES:N/A              NO:N/A Surface              Distance
Inbreeding	YES:              NO:5	YES:2              NO:3
Sire Ratio	YES:5              NO: YES:3             NO:2 Surface                   Distance	YES:4              NO:1 YES:N/A              NO:N/A Surface                  Distance

*Dosage column: Yes/No based on whether dosage indicated correct surface & distance

*Sire Ratio: Yes/No based on whether ratio indicated correct surface & distance combination based on 2/3 majority of sire ratings. eg. If 2x TR and 1 x TS then the resulting 2/3 majority being assessed would be TR. Example would be Dansili (TS) x Kingmambo(TR) x Northern Dancer(TR). (S) will be assessed as <8f.

*Current sire cost is total breeding points of all 3 sires used. I felt 1250 to be fair, allows for 250 for DDS, 500 DS, 500 sire. I chose this figure fairy arbitrarily.

*Available on credits: All 3 sires in the breeding need to be available in order to mark a ‘YES’ result

*Billy The Kid marked ‘N/A’ for distance assessment under both Sire Ratio and Dosage as it is inaccurate to make a call on 2yo handling distance or not as a general rule.