The forecast is a Kraken race in the Tommy Rum-Scull
The Tommy Rum-Scull – 9 furlongs on Dirt
The newest addition to TT Day was named after one of the Conglomerate trainers – Big Tommy Harrison after last years Trainers Trophy Day. The moment came about from a prank played on Big Tommy thinking we were all sculling glasses of rum and coke, but little did he know that unlike the rest of us having one shot of rum and 7 parts coke, his glass had one part coke and 7 parts rum. It’s fair to say that there were 2 things determined that day – Big Tommy although quiet for the rest of the day can handle his alcohol, and that drink spiking has a future after much negative publicity.
I’m super excited for this race it genuinely looks to be the quickest race of the day, with each stable having genuine winning chances. Lets check them out
Minty and Lollipop: This fine colt from Juan De Conte at the Cartel was bred purposefully to gain entry into the KY Derby at late notice. With everything needing to go perfectly in order to qualify he started off like a small town on fire going 2 from 2. It didn’t go pear shaped after that point but he definitely went on the slide and other than 2nd in an ungraded stakes he didn’t place in his next 5 runs. When all hope looked lost for TT Day he was brought back to 9f and exploded with a 110 sp winning his alw by 4 lengths. He hasn’t reached the same class as others in this race but I assure you when the whips are cracking he’ll be right there. On the up and can win
Double Dissolution: If it was a single dissolution it wouldn’t be giving me headaches but this one is double the trouble. Starting his career as a mediocre turf horse, Aggulotto was understandably distraught seeing his life savings invested in the breeding getting washed away. But then a change in surface and he exploded, winning 4 of his next 7, and starting as a 20/1 long shot for the KY Derby he absolutely motored home to finish second and narrowly miss the win. I can’t put a finger on what has happened since but he’s fallen away, albeit in graded company, even trying back on turf last start. Is he needing the 12f or will he snap out of his funk? He is the one of the class horses in the race and that might be enough. Class above and will go close
Five Lions: Previewing this is like playing tinder in Sweden, you can’t get a bad one. This is no exception, Deyoto has here an absolute beauty and along with the horse previous, holds a class edge above all others. A multiple group winner including the group 1 february stakes, Five Lions is a superstar of not just the AC but the wider sim. He will lead, there is no doubt about that, and he is the quickest horse, there is no doubt about that, but all his super runs have been at no more than 8.5f, so here is the doubt. If the race was a mile I wouldn’t even bother writing this review, but we’ve seen so far that after the mile mark he starts to fade. Will the back markers nail him on the line or will he open up too big a lead? He will be in this right to the final metres. The one to beat
Dale: It’s insulting to the top 3 horses to have this colt running. Trained by captain nog of the Cartel, he has had a recent switch to dirt with improved results, but needs more time and maturity. Not in this at all
Listentomeleonard: Another absolute speedster from the Empire. They say patience is a virtue, but when it takes 5 wins to get a crack at something higher than alw then patience is an understatement. This one is difficult to rate, he’s obviously a gun, posting sps up to 114 at his peak, however when he ticks over 8.5f there’s signs of slowing, but not by heaps. 3 starts back he posted a 108 at 9f in an ungraded stakes, missing by only ¾ of a length, but then next start at 10f in an alw dropped to 96 sp losing by 12 lengths. Being one of the back markers he’s right in this, he has the ability but can he produce his best? Definite place chance, still can win
Mount Midoriyama: Rated by his trainer Deyoto as his best chance, he can definitely run. Originally bred for turf, his best is definitely on dirt, which has included an ungraded stakes win in The Frequent Flyer, which is ironic because he’s not. He has since run in graded company coming close on several occasions but that was nearly 6 months ago. I feel like he would benefit greatly by losing the nuts, I’m sure there will be much dilemma within the stables as to what to lose first the nuts or the head. I think his best is at 9f it’s just that he might have peaked back in May. Include in the multiples
Big Caese: The big fella from the Cartel (Juan) improved out of sight with a gelding operation 3 months ago. His last run on dirt however was nearly 9 months ago and it’s difficult to see him figuring here. With Zabeel and redoute’s choice in the breeding I expect him to really get going in the next couple of years, I think he’s just a bit immature for this but will benefit from the experience.
Not this year
Can’t Hurt to Flirt: Wowee Aggulotto the tricksy little hobbitses where have you been hiding this one?? Should be renamed to Anne Frank. 4 wins and 4 placings from 9 starts has this boom colt absolutely champing at the bit to get out there. Below the class of the top rated horses but on the up and running consistently quick sectionals, including a 111 sp win in July, blitzing his opposition and backing it up with a 4 length win. Slight query on the distance, not because he’s struggled at it but because he has never run in on the fast dirt. I expect him to jump well and go to the lead, he has some strong opposition up front but will back himself to compete. Looks the goods and must include in the main chances
Golden Reef: After fading in the Miss Timoshenko Mile last year, he is a huge beneficiary of the new race. Deyoto has a super consistent and impressive horse, producing monster efforts back in the first half of 2016 with a 116 in ungraded stakes company, which would usually be enough to win. He’s a group runner although not quite at that class to win, but super competitive with a 3rd in the group 2 Star Athlete Handicap. A switch to turf last start will give him a bump for this race, and the class drop will be huge for him. In any other year I’d have him as a lock for top 3, he’s just in some awesome company and I need to give it some more thought. Super, go well
Ahoi hoi: Juan De Conte setting him out for his first run on dirt, appears to be making up the numbers, couldn’t possible compete with his group level comrades, will likely see him fight for an early lead, but will struggle to hold on
Selfish Pursuit: This is an interesting one by Aggulotto, 4 wins from 5 dirt starts has it screaming with ability. It has been an interesting prep, 4 wins on the trot to June (last 3 at 10f), then barely sighted since, just the one run in august losing by 18 lengths over 10.5f. I suspect the 9f will suit him to a tee, but can’t see him placing purely from a class point of view. Expect him to finish 4th-6th, and be wary of him in years to come
Spider Venom: Ripping colt from champion lodge. The more I preview this race the more it’s becoming the one I’m most looking forward to. An interesting career to date with 4 dirt starts to kick off his career showing nothing special, followed by the next 7 starts on turf and looked like it belonged in Big Tommy’s stables. I’m not sure what’s more surprising at this point, that the switch back to dirt yielded 3 super impressive wins and a super quick second from it’s next 4 starts, or the fact that the executioner himself had the patience to persist after an initial 1 win from 11 starts. Whatever happened it was for the best for deyoto as this colt gives him a genuine chance at winning, and look out next year he could be anything. Bloody exciting colt could win at expected long odds.
Bam Bamm: From owner Bam Bam himself trained by Juan De Conte, last years Vic mem definite entrant has had just the one dirt start, posting a decent 101 sp, but fading late. It’s difficult where to place the colt, I’m feeling backward of midfield but just a great effort by the Cartel to support their owners. Prefer others
Eternal Torment: Very average horse from the Empire, or should I say WAS an average horse. Aggulotto in a moment of frustration got the scissors out and turned the whole career of this now gelding around with a quick snip. Couldn’t run to save itself, living up to it’s name until last start after the operation posting a 107 sp winning easily. I’d be very surprised if he fired a shot amongst this company, but stranger things have happened. Expect him to finish mid-field but will go onto bigger things next year with the new streamlined underside
Universal Master: Exceptional breeding by Deyoto and the Cartel price check says $$$. After attempting the spring prelude but failing badly, he’s back to where he belongs on dirt, and at the right distance. There’s something about him that’s saying superstar somewhere, it’s just a matter of finding where. He wont run top 3 in this, in fact he may not finish, but if Deyoto has the patience (doubtful) I think there could be something sensational about him in a couple of years.
The Guz Man: Impressive breeding that has failed to deliver for Captain Nog and the Cartel. It was decided that to match the 2 big stables then the Cartel had to spend some money, but in a failed attempt they decided strategy rather than cash was best, and this nag who is still a maiden is purely making up the numbers. Nope.
Stanley Ibcus: The only filly in the race but definitely not the worst. An alw in May saw her quickest run at 110 but hasn’t won since. She would be favourite in a dirt race for the girls but first time running in open company and she’ll battle away. Great effort by Aggulotto to get the filly there but I suspect she may be scratched last minute. Will find this too tough.
Voadkyn: Deyoto has a very consistent colt here, impressing in an ungraded stakes in July with a 115 sp. Is quick enough to go with any of them but huge doubts having not won since 2014, so while I can’t see him causing an upset I expect him to finish 6th-8th, which in this field is a great effort
Flynn: A late entrant here for Aggulotto, another one that in any other year would be right amongst the chances, posting consistently high sps between 105-109, but not up to this class, not having won since January. If he was on the bachelorette I don’t think he’d be considered for a rose.
Turkey Night: Great effort for Big Tommy to get a runner for his namesake race. Posted a 90sp as a pb last start but serious consideration will need to be given to the schedule with Turkey Night likely to be rounding the turn as the next race are in the gates
Well that does it for this blockbuster, I expect this to be the closest finish for the day, throw a hankerchief over about 9 of them at the finish line, now for my tips:
Box Trifecta – Five Lions, Double Dissolution, Can’t Hurt to Flirt, Minty & Lollipop, Spider Venom