Miss Timoshenko Mile attracts class feild as The Cartel attempt to break the Lefranse stranglehold
A race named after not only a Conglomerate Legend but a Sim Legend must have class and that is exactly what we are presented with in this year’s Miss Timoshenko Mile. In 2014 Purple Panther saluted for Deyoto Lefranse posting a 109 SP and in 2015 Crazy Kitsa help the trainer stamp his authority at the mile winning by almost three lengths with a 110 SP. Lefranse enters the 2016 edition with yet another strong contingent headlined by Fastnet Blue and Crazy Kitsa who is looking to be the first horse to win a race on TT (Trainer Trophy) day three years in a row. Lets take a look at the field by team….
Juan de Conte / The Cartel
Teddy (Street Cry x Zabeel x Galileo) Juan de Conte
10/3-1-2 ($93k)
This fellow caused a high degree of movement in the pants of both The Cartel and owner BwuceX when he hit the ground running in November last year posting a 103 SP to win his maiden at 8f. He then caused them to pitch tents whilst sending the Sim world into a frenzy posting a 108 SP for 2nd place at 10f and popped at 106 SP to win by a quarter length in his first race in 2016. Had Miss Timoshenko Mile written all over him in April when 3rd in his first ungraded stakes race with a 111 SP at 8.5f and backed that up with a 110 SP in ungraded stakes at 8f in June.
He then ‘poured cold-water’ on such excitement when stepping up to 10f in graded company in July and again when he was sent back to 9f on dirt in August. He was exceptionally disappointing in his last race in September when going back to 8.5f turf in ungraded stakes when I and most people would have expected him to pop a 110 SP and win! The equation for Teddy is simple. If he returns to his best, he is a serious contender to win. If he continues in his slump, he won’t run top 6…. Better hope BwuceX has a reinforced crutch if Teddy wins………..
Daggers (New Approach x Rainbow Quest x Diesis) Juan de Conte
6/2-2-0 ($83k)
Charged into contention in his last race with a win at 8f posting a 105 SP in a NW3L in mid-September. Before that in August he posted a 104 SP at the mile for 2nd place after proving that he didn’t take to the 12f trip he attempted in June. Has to be rated as a decent shot with his last two performances but the lack of stakes experience may not help his chances. He must take the next step up here if he is to contend for The Cartel otherwise the decision to include him in the team may cause daggers to be drawn by members of The Cartel…
So You Slick (Zabeel x Redoute’s Choice x Danehill) Juan de Conte
19/5-2-2 ($146k)
Ol Slicksy is a weapon when at his best and The Cartel have the 6yo ticking nicely. His downfall is his inconsistency and I would say that he is the number one candidate to have his horslyness removed after TT day. Slicksy was 7th in this race last year after charging home like a pornstar imitating a jackrabbit at full throttle and has since put together an incredible string of cracking performances.
Juan has managed him to perfection with just six races this year including four allowance wins in a row (between a four-month break Feb – June) with his two length win at 9f posting a 112 SP an absolute highlight. His best result then came in late July with a barnstorming 2nd place in ungraded stakes at 9f when narrowly missing the win by under a length with a 107 SP. His last run at 10f against Youngy’s Mischief at G3 level saw him completely change is racing pattern. He was sent to the lead which threw him off and he bombed it.
Slicksy is a massive chance and will be top 4. He drops back in distance and grade and as long as he doesn’t run on the speed he will surprise many!!!
Captain Nog / The Cartel
The Almighty Pan (Sebring x Zabeel x Redoute’s Choice) Captain Nog
9/2-1-1 ($57k)
This 4yo colt is yet another from Captain Nog who has stuck his head up at the right time. Lightly raced and firing on all cylinders, he is in career best form as evidenced from his last run with a 110 SP at 8f in ungraded stakes for a 4th place whilst making up ground late. His allowance win in August at 8f in allowance company confirmed this and although there are more highly credentialed runners I wouldn’t be surprised to see this colt run top 6…
Arniee (Makfi x Northern Meteor x Invincible Spirit) Captain Nog
8/2-0-2 ($68k)
Quack quack quack…… Can you hear that? Yes, you’re right – it’s the sound of a sitting duck!!!
As well as this 3yo colt has developed in his last two runs, he is simply just not quick enough to hold out some of these guns. He will most likely lead and put in a good showing for The Cartel. His last start 104 SP in ungraded stakes was gallant however he was way off the winner in Fastnet Blue and will replicate that result here.
Bloody Invincible (Invincible Spirit x Thousand Slew) Captain Nog
24/4-3-6 ($144k)
Well this 11yo is bloody incredible. Won the Ruby Slipper and was ungraded stakes placed three times as a 2yo in 2007. He won an allowance on dirt in 2008 and 2009 then rested for 3 years, coming back for one run in 2012 and then resting for another 3.5 years to come back and run 6th in the Dunken Donuts on TT day 2015. He then ran twice more on dirt in 2015 and had his last prep race for this race off a nine month break with a 109 SP on turf at 8f!
He will win something on TT day – the strangest training technique ever shown in Sim history…. I would have to say that he is a slight place chance if he replicates his last performance however I am concerned that he has only had a seven week break so may still be feeling soreness after that last run as he has become accustomed to 150 week breaks between runs………
Deyoto Lefranse / Champion Lodge
Crazy Kitsa (Lonhro x Kitsa (SW)) Deyoto Lefranse
20/8-3-1 ($706k)
Crazy Kitsa is out of stakes winning mare Kitsa and named after the craziest hound of all time – Kitsa… Crazy Kitsa won the 2014 Kitsa Flat Knacker as a 2yo and went on to win this race last year. Ranked 41st in the turf route division, he has ever so slightly dropped off form this year compared to last. His past performances indicate that he relishes pace and is most at home when leading or sitting just off the leader. His last six races that he has raced this way have resulted in either a win or second place including a 2nd place in the G1 Locksmith at 8f in May. When he is beaten for pace and drifts back further in the field he doesn’t fire and ends up being an ‘also ran’.
His lead into this has been a talking point amongst Conglomerate members when he put in an below par performance in allowance company in early September with a 2nd place at 7.5f after being the heavy favourite. He still ran a 108 SP on that occasion and would have to be ranked as a certain top 4 chance here.
Fastnet Blue (Fastnet Rock x Diva Blue) Deyoto Lefranse
14/5-4-1 ($245k)
Crazy Kitsa won this race last year after running 2nd in the ungraded stakes Ericas Well Turf Mile with a 114 SP. Fastnet Blue is from the same trainer and his lead into this years race was the Ericas Well Turf Mile in which he won by two lengths posting a 114 SP. Fastnet Blue is ready to win this and ranks well above almost all others in my opinion. He has won four of his eight runs this year with his last three races being standouts. His NW4L 107 SP win in June was great and his next run was very close when 2nd by under a length in ungraded stakes in August with a 111 SP.
This colt will be flying home late. When the pressure comes on at the top of the strait and Conglomerate members rise off their seats in Lamplight Drive, Fastnet Blue will be the one everyone is watching as he attempts to run down the leaders. Top 2 for sure!
Magic Black (Lonhro x Kris. S x Danehill Dancer) Deyoto Lefranse
22/5-6-4 ($412k)
Getting back off the farm early October, Magic Black is refreshed and ready to rock. Ran a 106SP for 4th in this race last year and then obviously jumped on the ‘Lefranse Jungle Juice’ with his performances turning him from pretender into the contender. Although he has won just twice out of seven attempts this year including a 116 SP ungraded stakes and the G3 South Florida Mile with a 117 SP, Magic Black has been a big time runner with a 114 SP at allowance level and a 115 SP in G2 company to announce himself as a top 2 horse here. He dipped off in form in his last two runs in late July and early September however a good freshen up will no doubt help his cause here. A graded level horse dropping back to take on allowance level horses screams ‘too classy; for me and I for one don’t fancy any horse from outside Champion Lodge to take him down.
Lonhrock (Lonhro x Ferrojala (SW)) Deyoto Lefranse
18/4-6-3 ($187k)
Won’t score any points for Champion Lodge in this. Hasn’t put in one run that could justify him being regarded as a top 10 horse here. Best of 102 SP was in allowance company at 7f and will be smashed to parts here. If he continues such form he will be given the green dream by Lefranse…..
Bouchard (Dawn Approach x Green Desert x Dynaformer) Deyoto Lefranse
15/4-1-2 ($189k)
A candidate for a wooden spoon, last years surprise Ruby Slipper winner has done nothing since that win. Some have labelled the 3yo filly as a blight on the Conglomerate whilst Lefranse still holds belief…. Keep dreaming Lefranse!
Gianluigi Aggulotto / Briant Breeding & Racing Empire
Youngy’s Mischief (Pivotal x Caerleon x Kris. S) Gianluigi Aggulotto
9/3-2-3 ($114k)
One of Aggulotto’s training failures for the almighty Pierre Croissant who has three horses in this race. This 4yo colt was originally trained as Croissant’s definite entry into this years Vince Clever Memorial Handicap and all looked great after his maiden race on TT day 2015 when he won by two lengths at 8.5f with a 105 SP. He went on to shatter any dreams the French/Italian connection had of Vince Clever glory in 2016 after he ran below par at 10f and flopped at 12f. Immediately identifying this, Aggulotto set about turning him into a turf routing horse and Youngy’s Mischief obliged with a nice two length win at 9f with a 105 SP. He has developed well since then and in August he proved he will be an outside chance of an upset here when he rocketed home from seven lengths down to win by three lengths at 9f with a 107 SP in allowance company.
In what many labelled as crazy, Aggulotto then sent him to 10f in G3 company as his final lead in race to see if he could possibly qualify the colt for the Coxless Stakes. The colt didn’t respond to the extra furlong and was beaten on class with an 11th place and 101 SP. The distance drop back to the mile will help and a massive class reduction will also see him in great order. He must run the race of his life to win this and I do think that he is certainly capable of a top 5 run.
Slap N Pickle (Lonhro x Nureyev x Northern Dancer) Gianluigi Aggulotto
30/3-7-4 ($157k)
Part of the ‘triple threat’ for Mr Pierre Croissant who is well represented here. Ol’ Slappsy as he is affectionately known is one of the first horses owned by Croissant, running on TT day 2014 in the Moment of Pang (4th) and in this race last year (13th). He is in career best form this year as a 6yo and comes in off the back of a 6th placing at 9f posting a 106 SP in ungraded stakes. His two runs at 8f and 8.5f before that resulted in two 2nd placings in allowance company with 105 and 104 SP respectively.
He is realistically not a chance to gain points in the ‘Owners Cup’ for Croissant as he is just not fast enough however the drop back from stakes level and distance may just provide him with a bump up that sees him sneak a 3rd position. Yes it is very unlikely but he will give it his best shot. Top 8 chance.
Seven Beers In (Novelist x With Approval X In The Wings) Gianluigi Aggulotto
11/2-2-2 ($57k)
Bred to run 16f and prefers to just do half of that sums this fellow up. In his eleven starts he has not run under 8.5f and this will be his first attempt after showing promise at 8.5f turf. He is entered as part of the Aggulotto team due to his 8.5f run back in July posting a 109 SP to make ground late from mid-pack to finish 3rd. After a long break he ran at 9f and posted a 102 SP but faded and just fourteen days after that he had is final lead in race at 10f posting a 105 SP for 2nd at allowance level.
He is by no means a good chance however the drop back in distance and his 109 SP at 8.5f tell me he may run top 8 or better with a 110 SP.
Give Me The Snitz (Snitzel x Daemon Blackfyre) Gianluigi Aggulotto
19/5-1-4 ($161k)
This 4yo filly earnt her spot in this race with a 109 SP in ungraded stakes two starts back with a 3rd placing at 8.5f. That showed she has class however stepping up against the males may prove to be a different story as she will be racing some highly credentialed runners. 11th in The Sunline last year on TT day at 10f, she is in career best form but cannot see her getting into the top 5 here.
Brahmaformer (Darci Brahma x El Oso Blanco) Gianluigi Aggulotto
11/4-4-1 ($164k)
A super young filly who is still finding her feet. Not the ideal race for her and would be far better off against her own sex however with her front running capacity she had to be included. In her eight turf runs this year she has won four, all of which she has lead from start to finish. Initially thinking she would get a longer trip, Aggulotto ran her in the GR Simsters English Oaks in which she failed badly.
Obviously she needs a lot to go right for her to hold this field at bay however there is not a heap of early speed and she may just scoot away and steal a placing from other more highly credentialed runners.
Alzheimer Symphony (Savabeel x Danehill Dancer x Sadler’s Wells) Gianluigi Aggulotto
17/1-4-3 ($87k)
Three horses represent the Conglomerate’s biggest owner Mr Pierre Croissant in this race and none are as interesting as this 4yo gelding. Unable to run out of sight on a dark night before having his horselyhood removed, Alzheimer Symphony screamed into contention for the French/Italian Connection after growing wings in his first start back. Although making up ground late in this race last year for a career best 101 SP when 8th, he has struggled to do anything since. Having the snip in early September, he returned late September at 8.25f in allowance company to come from over fifteen lengths down at one stage and over eleven lengths down at the top of the strait to run a 106 SP for 3rd, beaten by two lengths.
Lets not sugar coat this. He must ran the race of a lifetime to place here but based on his new found form he could improve even further and run top 6.
Big Tommy Harrison / Rumskull Lodge
Bigtommyinlilchina (Makfi x Zabeel x Shamadal) Big Tommy Harrison
6/1-1-1 ($38k)
Inconsistently raced but looks like the 3yo colt has some talent. Strange breeding but seems to be able to run alright if he leads. Needs to be trained more consistently and he will find a spot to race next year.
Conglomerate Crush (Condamine x Sweet Escape) Big Tommy Harrison
8/0-0-3 ($12k)
Hardest race to pick on TT day but this fellow won’t give me any headaches………
Well there it is folks – a massively talented field and tough to get the winner…..
My picks:
Box trifecta – Fastnet Blue, So You Slick, Crazy Kitsa
If I had to separate them:
1st – Fastnet Blue
2nd – Crazy Kitsa
3rd – So You Slick
Smokey – Youngy’s Mischief