ANDY’S CHOICE Back in the Saddle!
Boogity Bear Stakes
Grade III
A mile and one eighth on the Firm Turf Course
$125,000
All horses, 3 years old and up
It’s a great time to be in North Florida.It’s already been spring here for some time and the blossoms are out and so are the horses for this Grade III race. We have some interesting stories as usual, with the favorite coming off of a long layoff and some lightly raced four year olds. The Stakes record is held by ASLAN’S MANE when he ran a sizzling 107.32 last year. It looks like that could be threatened here and I can’t wait to see it so let’s take a look:
1 – CANDLEPOWER(IRE) ODDS OWNER WIN% JOCKEY WIN% TOP SPEED EARNINGS RANK 7/1 Reman12000 20% Q.Westbrook 93 – 7 – 5 – 14 – 8% 103.57 $282,042 106
(LAW SOCIETY (IRE) x MAJESTIC LIGHT x BLUSHING GROOM(FR) out of LIGHT TEDDY) After a stellar career, this four year old horse was purchased by owner Reman12000 where he promptly went out and ran his best SPF with a 103 and won an allowance race going away. Not willing to look a gift horse in the mouth, Reman12000 entered him into this Graded race to see just what kind of bargain this horse is. He looks like he is ready to go and should like this inside post with his stalking style.
| 2 – ROCKIN’ PNEUMONIA(IRE) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| /1 | Pikachu | 16% | A,Short | 39 – 1 – 4 – 5 – 3% | 109.95 | $485,741 | 600 |
(ROCK OF GIBRALTAR (IRE) x IRISH RIVER(FR) x SADLER’S WELLS out of CUMBRIA RIVER) This well bred five year old has twelve wins including the last three races, all allowances. Trainer Pikachu wants to see if he is ready to get back on the Stakes trail where he hasn’t had a winner in over a year and a Graded win in a year and a half. He appears to have found his second wind though and could compete here. He will have to overcome jockey Short though who is having one of his worst years in his sixteen year career and may be showing his age.
| 3 – CINNAMON CAT | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/1 | TheProfit8 | 16% | B.Gruber | 46 – 5 – 2 – 2 – 11% | 97.23 | $145,334 | 1159 |
(DISTORTED HUMOR x SUMMER SQUALL x PREMIERSHIP out of CINAMON GIRL) This spicy brown four year old colt has only run a total of nineteen races in his career but has won the last three, all allowance races. He had never run a grass race at a mile or more before that and the distance seems to really suit him. Trainer TheProfit8 wants to see how he fares against a little stiffer competition and his stalking style may do him well from this post. He will have to bump up the SPF a bit as he has never hit triple digits but this may be the spot.
| 4 – MAOL DHOMHNAIGH(IRE) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/2 | Itch2 | 16% | K.Braun | 161 – 16 – 21 – 30 – 10% | 110.36 | $ 342,230 | 62 |
( GIANT’S CAUSEWAY (IRE) x MR. GREELEY x ROMEO out of MILL CONTROL) This four year old colt with the name that translates from Irish to“Descendant of a servant of the church”.doesn’t look like a servant but more like a master. He has hit the century mark SPF-wise in eight straight races and is a Graded winner. A couple of problems here though for trainer Itch2 as his colt hasn’t run since before Christmas last year. That is a pretty long layoff to come back from in his first race. He also appears to really like an off track and the weatherman has promised sunshine for this weekend. I think I will wait a race or two to jump back on this band wagon.
| 5 – GERFLY’S DEED | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/1 | TomsFly | 11% | O.A.Haack | 184 – 32 – 33 – 31 – 17% | 106.50 | $ 820,700 | 48 |
( GERI x SHADEED x NASKRA) After a quick two race series on the clay, where this six year old won one Stakes race, trainer TomsFly has moved him back to the grass where he has competed with five Stakes wins and a GIII as well. This is another pony that would probably prefer a little mud to run in but with O.A.Haack in the leather with his patented magic hands, this horse should be able to mesh their considerable talents well and compete in this race.
| 6 – CAMPILLO | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/1 | Rafita | 14% | S.Moore | 24 – 1 – 3 – 0 – 4% | 107.94 | $ 293,176 | 99 |
( STORM CAT x SEEKING THE GOLD x NIJINSKY II) This nicely bred four year old has struggled a bit this year with his last two races being rather uninspired outings. Trainer Rafita would like to see him get back to his 100+ SPFs that he was showing the end of last year and this is a horse that strangely seems to step it up and actually race better in Graded races than in regular Stakes or allowance races. It will take a big push here to get back to those speeds, especially carrying Moore on his back who has struggled to only one win all year.
| 7 – NUREYBURG | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35/1 | BoldRule99 | 13% | P.Dennis | 39 – 3 – 4 – 5 – 8% | 95.72 | $ 98,052 | 1277 |
( JOHANNESBURG x NUREYEV x FORTY NINER out of NINEONEUNO) This nice looking chestnut four year old has only run fourteen races in his career and has finished on the board in nine of them. Most of those were in allowance races however and he will have to really put forth a big effort to move in with this field. Trainer BoldRule99 knows that this colt’s Mom can put out successful foals so he may be ready to step out. Dennis is in the irons and will need to step it up a bit from his record this year as well.
| 8 – PEINTRE INDYMAN | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/1 | Milnerton | 14% | E.Stevenson | 30 – 0 – 0 – 3 – 0% | 121.32 | $ 854,110 | 50 |
( PEINTRE CELEBRE (IRE) x A.P. INDY x RIVERMAN out of JUMBO A.P.) This six year old is coming off of a two month layoff after throwing a real clunker in her last outing. Trainer Milnerton is hoping that is all this horse needs to get back to form where he had run seven triple digit speed figures and was competitive in Graded races. They have Stevenson in the leather and he is having his worst year in what has been a pretty unspectacular career. That doesn’t bode well for this team.
| 9 – SENIOR YEAR | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/1 | BigRama | 23% | C.Weist | 55 – 10 – 4 – 6 – 18% | 103.33 | $ 169,276 | 2721 |
(LION HEART x MR. GREELEY x CHIEF’S CROWN) After a nice career on the dirt, this flying four year old was tried on the grass by trainer BigRama and he responded with two consecutive allowance wins with 100+ SPFs. He is making a big jump here both in class and in distance but with this varied field it just might work. It will help having Weist holding the reins as he may be haing his best year of his ten years at the track. Hopefully he can pace this big horse enough to let him make the big stretch run he gave in his last two outings.
| 10 – ANDY’S CHOICE | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/1 | GunSynd | 13% | H.McCoy | 194 – 49 – 49 – 19 – 25% | 106.28 | $872,030 | 20 |
(RAINBOW QUEST x GONE WEST x LYPHANESS out of ALL STAR STEEL) After two near misses in Graded Stakes races in his last two, it might be time for this hugely talented four year old colt to get back to his winning ways. He won last years 2000 GUINEAS GI and is ranked in the top 20 in this class. I think that the Morning Line is giving him short shrift and there is some money to be made at the windows here. Trainer GunSynd has to like this big guys chances especially with McCoy in the saddle who is by far the best jockey at this track and is having one of his best years yet. Bet on this team!
| 11 – BLACK COIN | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/1 | Kool4Katz | 22% | N.Woolford | 80 – 6 – 10 – 6 – 8% | 103.28 | $94,590 | 560 |
(SADLER’S WELLS x KEY TO THE MINT x ROUND TABLE)) It is hard to handicap a four year old with only five races under his belt, but that is what they pay me the big credits for! This solid and well trained colt won his first four races then just missed last time out finishing second in his first Stakes outing but with a nice 103 SPF. Trainer Kool4Katz realized that there isn’t a lot of time to find out what this colt is made of so it is time to move hime up. His only other race from this far out resulted in a win so that may play to his favor. With some of the other question marks in this race, he could make it interesting.
Morning Line = 4-10-8-1-2-5
Paz Picks = 10-5-2-1-4
This has a chance to be a really interesting race and is really hard to handicap with all of the layoffs and lightly raced horses in the field. I would like to put MAOL DHOMHNAIGH higher but with that long break I have him picked to finish fifth although he has the talent to win. It would be a nice Cinderella story to see CANDLEPOWER win for his new trainer but I have him fourth. I like ROCKIN’ PNEUMONIA but I’m afraid that his age is catching up to him so I’m placing him third, just falling back in the stretch. That leaves me with GERFLY’S DEED to finish second to what I believe is the big class of the field in ANDY’S CHOICE who should run away and hide here.
Good luck to all runners!
Email your comments to pazjazz.btb@gmail.comI love to hear from you!
