Whip Surge Stakes
Here we are in Kentucky for the running of the Whip Surge Stakes for 3yo colts on turf over 7f for a purse of $90,000. In a prelude to the Graded race after this, Eclipse nominee Paycheck is taking his first steps for the year under the watchful eye of that wacky trainer Deyoto Lefranse. In what can only be described as ‘outlandish’comments made by Lefranse this week, he has said that “he expects Paycheck to win this by at least two lengths”. To do this he will have to overcome some neat colts that have their own plans for future riches this season. I do not happen to think it is as clear cut as that so here’s how they lined up after races were carded and morning line odds were posted.
PP #1- PAYCHECK(IRE) – MONTJEU (IRE) X GREEN DESERT X ROBERTO (deyoto) 5/2
7/3-2-0 for $422,438 – Turf Sprint: 52
Having watched his horse from breeding through to this point, there is nothing that would surprise me. Although heavily suited to classic and longer distance, he could give this a shake. He is coming off a 4th placing in the G1 Epiphany in which he was very disappointing and returned to his stables in lay-off much to the dismay of trainer Deyoto Lefranse. After a very slow start to his career he soon showed rapid improvement culminating in the Breeder’s Bowl where he grew wings running a 99 but was beaten by……a freak. Paycheck was last year an Eclipse nominee with an ungraded stakes win, G3 Flying Saucer Stakes win and his BB performance. The inside word on Paycheck is that jockey P Cardigan has been instructed to ride at .98 with either the 2000 Guineas or Sydney Derby a prospect and the Coxless Stakes later in the year. He will sit just off the pace and will use stamina for a sustained sprint to the line.
PP #2 – GRETZKY GAMBLES(KY) – TOCCET X PLEASANT TAP X BROAD BRUSH (rmkj16) 8/1
13/2-4-2 for $93,695 – Turf Sprint: 1256
After twelve races on dirt, almost seven months without a win and just one allowance win under his belt, Gretzky Gambles is looking to improve on his one dabble he had on turf over 7f in 3035 where he ran his second slowest career SP. In what could be seen as a last ditch effort to get him to fire, Gretzky Gambles looks to be hopelessly outgunned by some of these cracking colts. He has twice placed 3rd in ungraded stakes company on dirt and looks to pull off what could be seen as the biggest upset of the week if it occurs. His last start 10th at this track on the dirt in 3119 does nothing to install confidence but he does seem to run better at a mile or less. I expect him to get back near the rear of the field this week and find the class of these other colts too good.
PP #3 – ROCK BALLAD(KY) – SEEKING THE GOLD X DIXIELAND BAND X A.P. INDY (opinora) 2/1
9/4-1-2 for $199,470 – Turf Sprint: 53
Interesting colt who has had two disappointing runs this season after a great finish to his 2yo career with a 3rd placing behind Mambo Wildcat in the G1 Epiphany and beating Paycheck by a half length. He ran 3rd in the G3 Panhandle Park Derby, and last time out ran 5th in the Kingstonian Memorial Stakes both races at 9f. Dropping back to 7f which he has not raced at for almost six months and as his breeding suggests he is not heavily blessed with stamina, he may be better suited. He is three from five in sprints and one from four in routes, however his sprint runs have included a maiden and an allowance victory so it will be fascinating to see how he handles the shorter trip. His jockey B Sipe should jump him out and lead this race as there are no other natural leaders and he will be attempting to hold off swoopers in the stretch, however Sipe only has a 7.2% success rate this year and doesn’t look to be doing Rock Ballad any favors.
PP #4 – VEGAS CABBY(TX) – RUNNING STAG X JALLAD X DARN THAT ALARM (pilgrim6) 14/1
8/4-0-0 for $61,610 – Turf Sprint: 153
Since being sold after his debut disappointment and joining the pilgrim empire, Vegas Cabby has performed out of sight winning his next three runs including the Magic Auror Challenge Stakes as a 2yo. This 3yo grandson of Cozzene showed he has developed nicely since last year with a barnstorming victory last time out in a NW4L allowance and running a 88. This race looks a lot tougher though and he will have to contend with both multiple ungraded stakes winners and G3 winning colt. Although he is a ‘cheep breed’, one major bonus is that he appears to be well suited to the 7f and jockey D Sherman could use this to their advantage whilst attempting to add to his 13.8% winning rides this year. His last two runs have been from the back of the field and although successful last time out, this race has more depth.
PP #5 – DEMON’S DIRECT(KY) – AWESOME AGAIN X WAR CHANT X HALO (cougar) 3/1
8/4-2-0 for $184,100 – Turf Sprint: 44
In only eight starts, DD has two ungraded stakes wins and two 2nd placings in addition to his 4th placing in the G1 Nationwide Stakes in 2979. Only lost by a length in his first run as a 3yo in and showed he has improved from last season. His only two runs worse than 3rd were his debut run on the dirt and his G1 attempt. He will sit just behind Straightandstrong in the running and will cause the top three some hassles in the stretch. Breeding displays good dose of speed and stamina which was evident in his sustained sprint last time out. With jockey D Givins aboard he really does have a big bonus with Givins shooting for his 33rd win at 25.6% for the year so far.
PP #6 – STRAIGHTANDSTRONG(IRE) – AZAMOUR (IRE) X KING OF KINGS (IRE) X MACHIAVELLIAN (ticketman0) 7/2
10/3-2-3 for $142,290 – Turf Sprint: 23
The stable is on a huge high after The King’s Hunter nailed the G1 Train Yard Stakes field last week and ticketman0 will look to again upset at least one great colt in Paycheck this week. The winner of two ungraded stakes races including his last start win in the Viking Royalty Memorial Stakes going 6f running a 91, Straightandstrong has only twice run worse than 3rd and will finish in the money this week. His breeding suggests he would appreciate more ground; however he is an accomplished sprinter who sits just off the leader and grinds away. Well placed this week and I am tipping he will be in trifecta calculations.
Predictions:
Rock Ballad to shoot to the lead followed closely by Straightandstrong, Paycheck and Demon’s Direct. Gretzky Gambles and Vegas Cabby will fall out the back.
On the turn, Paycheck will begin to make a sustained sprint looming up to Rock Ballad who feels the heat with Straightandstrong stalking and Demon’s Direct just behind him.
In the stretch, Paycheck heads Rock Ballad who fades severely and is passed by Straightandstrong who is under pressure from Demon’s Direct with the champion D Givins riding well. Vegas Cabby and Gretzky Gambles attempt to make ground on the first four but find themselves too far back.
On the line, Paycheck salutes just ahead of Demon’s Direct. Straightandstrong needed more ground in 3rd and Rock Ballad battles on for 4th.
Should be a great race with four horses that have a chance of winning.
Good Luck to all