Rain in the Desert

After a year’s hiatus, The Georgia Prospector will get its second running this Saturday.

The first running attracted a quality field, with over half eventually winning graded stakes.  This edition carries on that short tradition by attracting some highly ranked three year old fillies.

A surprise desert rain figures to make the course a sloppy one, and that may be a key handicapping angle as we examine these youngsters:

PP 1  SYMREALITY(JPN)  (SYMBOLI KRIS S x IN REALITY x DR. FAGER)

                Bred and owned by TogaBurt.  Odds: 8-1

It started to look like the eleven race, including five straight graded tries, two year old campaign was taking its toll on this filly, and then she finished her year with a nice stakes win.  She’s calling Dubai her home as a three year old, but hasn’t show much in her first two races here.  Barn believes she will be best when young and they’re racing her often.

PP 2  FEUERBEFEHL(KY)  (CAT THIEF x FORTY NINER x HALO)

           Bred and owned by Sarava02.  Odds: 9-2

Number two in earnings per start, three for five in sprints, and the co-favorite.  Stalking style is always nice, and she’s posted several mid- to upper- 80’s speed figures.  Her recent highlight was a nice third in a DelPenn stakes.  This might be the ideal distance for her.

PP 3  AWESOME CUCHI(KY)  (AWESOME AGAIN x A.P. INDY x MR. PROSPECTOR)

                Bred and owned by Beisbol.  Odds: 9-2

There are a few things that make this one an obvious choice.  She’s got the highest speed figure, and the only one in the 90’s; for a sprint for young fillies there are only three early speed horses here, and she’s the speed of the speed; but how about this?  Her two race win streak leading to this came on off tracks.  Let it rain!

PP 4  PHOENIX HILLS(KY)  (TALE OF THE CAT x DEPUTY MINISTER x BLUSHING GROOM(FR))

            Bred and owned by Coxplate.  Odds: 9-1

A five race win streak her two year old season vaulted this one to a top twenty rating.  That’s always useful in attracting the incomparable Harzheim to take the irons.  The long odds?  You want to see improvement early in the three year old season, and she seems to have flattened out.  Ran an even third last time in a four horse field, finishing behind Reina de Gibraltar, who sits in the 9 spot.

PP 5  FIFTH STREET(KY)  (SILVER GHOST x DEPUTY MINISTER x A.P. INDY)

            Bred and owned by Lenny30.  Odds: 10-1

Formidable stable sponsored a series of Chinese allowance races for her and now figures she’s ready for some tougher competition.  This closer is five for five in the money in sprints and one for one on an off track.  She’s been showing steady improvement, but she’ll have to make a sizeable improvement to win this.

PP 6  KENDRA’S MAGIC(KY)  (RAHY x VAUDEVILLE x MARQUETRY)

            Bred and owned by Favetrick5.  Odds: 11-1

Lost the battle for fifth last time to Symreality and will likely welcome the return to sprints.  She seems to be one that needs the lead to win, and Awesome Cuchi is likely to thwart that plan.  She may, however, hamper that one’s chances too.  Multiple stakes winner gets a great rider.

PP 7  FOOL’S SILVER(GB)  (POWERSCOURT (GB) x A.P. INDY x SILVER HAWK)

            Bred by NoCalBred, owned by Freeky2.  Odds: 11-1

All of her wins came on the grass, and two of them were in routes.  Here’s a question.  If a horse likes an off track on the grass, does that mean it likes an off track on the dirt?  She’s two for two on wet grass, so the question is not idle.  She bid and hung last time on her return to dirt.  Stable thinks shortening up may help.

PP 8  CALYPSO(KY)  (WANDO x SEATTLE SLEW x GUILLAUME TELL)

            Bred by Godmother, owned by Aalusive.  Odds: 9-1

Five race losing streak is the longest one here.  On the other hand, her speed figure last time, earned in a wet route, is the second fastest here.  She had the race won after seven and a half furlongs, only to get caught late.  Barn has to love the distance, the wet surface, and the long odds.

PP 9  REINA DE GIBRALTAR(IRE)  (ROCK OF GIBRALTAR (IRE) x WOODMAN x SILVER HAWK)

            Bred and owned by Deponce. Odds: 11-1

Closer would probably like to see more speed in here.  She’s been showing steady improvement over the last several races, but she still looks like 8-10 speed points behind the likely winning speed.

PP 10  DANCING QUIETLY(IRE)  (DANEHILL DANCER (IRE) x QUIET AMERICAN x SHIRLEY HEIGHTS(GB))

            Bred by RobRoe, owned by PapaXerxes.  Odds: 8-1

Tough to know how this one is going to run.  This is her first time on the dirt.  Her last start was not good.  Stable is not afraid of this field – they made a last minute entry and could see all the other runners.  She does like to finish second.

PP 11  RUDERE(KY)  (MEDAGLIA D’ORO x SILVER GHOST x UNBRIDLED’S SONG)

            Bred and owned by Cotevol.  Odds: 5-1

Two races ago, she won a stakes over a tough field right here in Dubai over the same distance.  She’s clearly fast enough to be a contender here and won’t be bothered by speed duels or lack of speed duels.  Her lone run an off track was not good, and a 25% win rate seems modest in this company.