Bluegrass Derby: Twenty Horses, Two Minutes to Immortality (Official Preview)

Tens of thousands of colts and fillies are bred every year in this great game.  And for each of them – whether a GGGG card breeding, a turfy combination, or a 3,000 credit Tapit scratch-bred – the breeder dreams of roses.  For every first-out winner, the trainer’s mind races to one place – Kentucky on the First Saturday in May.  This is the race for which the Sim is named and the reason why so many play.

The big day has finally arrived.  Let’s get to the field for the Bluegrass Derby!

The Field

#1 Outback Bloodhound 11-1 carries VYZ Racing’s banner into the Bluegrass Derby for a second time.  That stable’s Outback Curium (Awesome Again) was fifth here in 2014 after winning the Florida Derby (G1); he later ran second in the New Yorker (G1) and fourth in the Breeders’ Bowl Classic (G1). 

Outback Bloodhound is a genuine article.  He is the figs horse in here and looks to be the pace commander off his last two.  The need-the-lead front-runner burned them up on the front end in the G1 All Saints Derby and the G3 Risen Star and there’s no doubting who would win if the Derby were run over 1 1/16 miles in Louisiana.  His speed figure of 110 in the All Saints is topped by nothing in the field except for his own 111 in the Risen Star.

John of VYZ told me he is concerned that Outback Bloodhound won’t be able to “enjoy[] the soft run in front that he’s been allowed in this last two.”  I beg to differ with that assessment: Outback Bloodhound was loose on the lead in Louisiana but there was nothing “soft” about it.  He cut out fast fractions and had plenty left in the tank.  He earned huge pace figures in his March wire-to-wire win (E1 109, E2 117, both tops in the field) and he was just as fast in the Risen Star in February.  With further development, there’s no telling how fast he can go.  He was the one horse in the field who wasn’t likely to be hampered by the rail draw.  The other 19 will be able to see him from the word “go.”

In-bred 3×3 to Deputy Minister, Outback Bloodhound’s existence is owed as much to chance as anything.  VYZ Racing’s breeding operation has long been opposed to inbreeding of this nature but, due to a clerical error, this scratch-bred came into being.  A happy accident indeed.

With Breeders’ Cup Classic pedigree top and bottom (Ghostzapper x A.P. Indy) he should get the distance, though his energy distribution tends to point to him possibly struggling with 1 ¼ miles, as fading speed generally doesn’t do well on the stretch out in the Sim.  Still, with two huge wins at 8 ½ furlongs, this lightly-raced millionaire cannot be discounted.  The Derby will be just his third race of the year and he could take another step forward.  That’s a scary thought.

#2 Sipi Falls 24-1 didn’t make his debut until September 2015.  After stretching his legs in a debut sprint, this son of Afleet Alex ripped off four consecutive wins at a mile, including the listed Aram Test S. in Kansas (SF 102) in February.  Deep closers usually only improve on the stretch out in the Sim so I expected him to kick on in the 1 1/16 mile G3 Gary Asher Memorial S. in New York.  It didn’t happen.  But it was hardly surprising to see him continue with his development when he won the G1 California Derby in April 9 at 1 1/8 miles.

Sipi Falls’s dam, Bustinupstarbucks (Medaglia d’Oro), was three times a stakes winner at the classic distance of 1 1/4 miles.  Sire Afleet Alex was a superior racehorse, putting in one of the greatest Preakness performances ever when he won after nearly being murdered in upper stretch prior to blowing away the field in the Belmont Stakes.  His get have won the Travers and the Breeders’ Cup Marathon.  This one is bred to run all day.

But why was the California Derby so slow?  It rated as the worst of the seven Derby Lock preps with a rating of just 91.6 (par for the 9f races was 99.5).  At a speed fig of 103, it was the slowest of all the Derby Lock Prep races and it had a pretty lackluster field, given the fact that the other Grade I winners in there, Deadmoney Cadet and Storm Cat Humor, looked to be well past their best form, and runner up King Bobby is still eligible for an N2x allowance race.  Is it possible that Sipi Falls is a second-tier player in here because he’s just not that fast?  We know he’ll get the pace to set up his late kick and the extra furlong should help.  But there are big question marks.

#3 Lion’s Slew 20-1 comes in off a 12th-place finish in Louisiana that had to be a huge disappointment to his backers.  A winner of his first three races as a juvenile, this Turkish-bred scratch-bred was a true Steady Eddie at age two, never finishing more than a head back during his first six career starts (4-2-0, culminating in a win in the G1 Hopeless Stakes).  He set the pace in the Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile and gave way only grudgingly in the late stages, finishing fifth, and then won the LA Prevue (G3) to close the campaign. 

His connections wisely avoided the Movieland Futurity (G1) and its surrounding circus to freshen him.  He returned with an impressive win in the sponsored G1 Vermont is 4 Lovers in February before flopping in the All Saints Derby (G1) after being unable to outrun Outback Bloodhound to the lead.  He comes in off a six-week layoff and will be making just his third start in five months.  On his best, he’s dangerous, as his front-running score in Vermont at nine furlongs was visually impressive.  A closer review of that race, however, reveals that he was loose on the lead through slow fractions (projected pace figures: 79/68) and was flattered by the race shape, in spite of the big speed figure (106). 

He’s drawn just two posts outside of Outback Bloodhound and the two will no doubt hook up once again.  But this is an outsider.

The wiseguy pick in here is #4 Yellow Fangs 17-1.  The son of Elusive Quality popped a 107 SF in winning the G1 Florida Derby in his first-ever graded stakes race.  One of the more lightly raced in here (just eight races, having won five), he is a horse on an upward trajectory and he’s gotten to this level very quickly. 

Yellow Fangs debuted in – of all places – a hot race last May.  He won it by five lengths, won an allowance two races later, then put in a solid effort in finishing fourth in the G3 Times Square Derby in September.  After a November listed stakes flop, his connections decided to point for nine furlong route races in order to prepare him for what they hope will be Derby glory.  An impressive allowance win off a three-month layoff was followed by a SF 104 win in a listed event in Oklahoma. 

He’s one of many in here who will be pressing the pace.  His Florida Derby winning effort indicates he’ll have every shot in here, as does the fact that he’s the only three-time winner at 1 1/8 miles in the field.  Sire Elusive Quality threw Triple Crown should-have-been-winner Smarty Jones (if only Stewart Elliott hadn’t “pulled a Desormeaux” on him at the Belmont!) and Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Raven’s Pass.  Dam-sire A.P. Indy himself won the Belmont and the Breeders’ Cup Classic and is one of the top classic influences in North American breeding.  I have all confidence this one will stay the distance. 

His connections should be happy to have drawn outside of two of the main speeds.  The draw gives rider Radzinski, reunited with the colt off their Florida Derby win, a number of options for this versatile colt.

#5 Blank Space 13-1 was to be one half of an uncoupled entry sent out by the Deyoto barn along with Mount Midoriyama until that one scratched to point to the G1 Middle Jewel S. in Baltimore.  A five-time winner of over $650,000, Blank Space carries the expectation of a truly magical family into the Bluegrass Derby, the site of his dam’s greatest victory.  Blank Space’s dam, Taylor’s Story (Distorted Humor), won nearly $1.4 million in her career, including the G1 Bluegrass Oaks here in 2010. 

Blank Space is her fourth foal; half-brother Rarakinachi (Sea the Stars) won over half a million dollars, including two stakes on dirt and a Grade II placing on turf, and was 10th in the 2014 Bluegrass Derby.  Second dam Carol of the Bells won Pennsylvania’s Grade I World Cup at age four at a mile on the dirt and collected nearly $1.3 million, and in addition to Taylor’s Story foaled Grade I winner Gengis Khani (Dalakhani), who won the G1 Corkscrew S. himself and was 10th in the Bluegrass Derby in 2012. 

That Blank Space is the third member of his dam’s family to run in the Derby is a remarkable feat.  And this Tapit colt is carrying that mantle well.  He won four of his first five races as a two year-old, including the G3 Times Square Derby at 1 1/16 miles.  He was a good third in the Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile.  He was second behind Lion’s Slew in Vermont before winning a listed stakes race at 1 3/16 miles (SF 103) in March.  His California Derby was so-so.  He ran third but lacked the push-button acceleration of King Bobby (2nd) or the staying power of winning closer Sipi Falls.  His late pace figure that day (108) was a bit weak for a closer, though his tactical speed should place him more forwardly than some of the other late runners in here. 

Trainer Deyoto stated that, while he didn’t get up to win the California Derby, he thought it was a perfect preparation for the Derby.  He thinks this colt is sitting on a big race.  He will need to take that projected step forward to be there in the late stage in this one.  Like Yellow Falls, this is a versatile horse and being drawn inside should be a plus with two front-runners inside of him.

Juvenile Breeders’ Bowl hero and two year-old champion #6 Deadmoney Cadet 18-1 is seeking to join Buda With the Slew and Tower Storm as only the third ever colt to pull off that vaunted triple, per research by Pete (Trotter1).  I must say it doesn’t look particularly likely.  By More Than Ready out of an Unbridled’s Song mare, this scratch-bred was built top and bottom to excel up to middle distances, and boy did he.  He debuted in a hot race in March of his juvenile campaign with an eye-popping 78 SF win.  He was a stakes winner in his third start at six and a half furlongs and he had two near-misses in graded company going two turns in the fall. 

He finished off a championship campaign with a win in the Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile and a good second to Swapsco Kitty in the G1 Movieland Futurity (SF 107).  That he came up second best in the big showdown with the filly champion was no disgrace, and the experience in front of two giant crowds was likely to add Derby seasoning.  This winner of over $1.3 million then took nearly three months off and ran a decent third in the G2 Felipe Alou S. at 1 1/16 miles in his spring bow (SF 96) but did not move forward at all in the G1 California Derby (7th, SF 100).  Nobody in the field has more back class than this guy and third off the layoff he could certainly move forward, but it seems like his early speed has been a bit dull in his three year-old campaign and I have to wonder if the juvenile season took too much out of him.

#7 Power Grab 14-1 is the star of Empire Maker’s last Japan-based crop.  With five wins from nine starts, he’s won over $800,000 and is as consistent as they come, having popped speed figures of 104, 105, and 104 in his last three races.  He’s coming off a game runner-up finish in which he finished just a neck behind Swapsco Kitty in the G1 Sand Castle Derby. 

Power Grab is the second foal of stakes-winning dam Skunk D’oro (Medaglia D’oro), who just missed winning the G2 East Coast Mile by a head and who excelled at distances up to 1 1/16 miles.  Older half-sister Town Skunkster (Speightstown) is 7 for 15 lifetime.  She won a stakes a mile (112) in February and was a good fourth in her graded stakes debut last month in the G3 Dirtydirtydishragyou S. in Iowa.  Sire Empire Maker won the Belmont and his get handles distance quite well (see Lex Luthor, winner of the 1 ½ mile Derby de English (G1T) and Cold Empire, winner of the 1 ½ mile Sydney Oaks (G1T)), though the bottom side of this pedigree indicates he’ll be most effective at eight to nine panels.

This colt has a good middle move and runs his race every time.  His come-home time in Dubai was decent; his late kick in his G2 Sleepy Fan win in February was more impressive (30.62 seconds).  One of several in a shot here to make an impact late.

The one entrant in this field whose place in history is already secure is #8 Swapsco Kitty 12-1.  A filly lining up against 19 colts, this scratch-bred has already won five Grade I races, including two against males, and has accomplished the almost unheard of feat of holding champion-level form for a full year.  By the end of her juvenile campaign, she’d already outgrown the competition provided her by filly-restricted races and beat 2yo male champion Deadmoney Cadet in a historic rendition of the G1 Movieland Futurity. 

Under the current system, it is virtually impossible for a two year-old to win Horse of the Year, though any Juvenile Fillies’ winner who then beat the Juvenile winner in a Grade I showdown would no doubt be a candidate for such an honor in real-life Eclipse Award balloting.  Scat Daddy’s only Grade I winner on dirt (from 761 runners), Swapsco Kitty now attempts to pull off a feat never before achieved by a filly in taking the Sim’s greatest prize.  (Note: A total of nine fillies have ever won the Kentucky Derby (three) and Epsom Derby (six) combined, races which have collectively been run nearly 400 times.  No filly has hit the winning post first at Epsom since World War I.)

Her pedigree statistics (dosage etc.) aside, the Great Filly may struggle with the distance.  Scat Daddy’s get has preferred short going, and Saint Ballado is more of a middle distance influence.  (I think I had published a piece slagging off Saint Ballado in the Sim Racing Form some fifteen years ago; I’ve never been a huge fan.) 

Swapsco Kitty didn’t show her push-button acceleration in her lone 1 1/8 mile race (a win in the Sand Castle Derby) that we’ve seen from her in previous tries going 1 1/16 miles. She was aided by being on a slow pace (E1 95, E2 91, both at least a length slower than par of 99/97) that day and, while you give her credit for cracking the other speed, she didn’t exactly fly home either (LP 105).  I have the Sand Castle rated fifth amongst the seven Derby Lock Preps.

But at this point am I nitpicking?  She beat males that day in a $1.5 million race with a speed figure that was respectable (104) given it was only her second race of the season.  She comes into this race off a six-week layoff and should be primed for a big effort.  She’ll be forwardly placed.  In an interview Monday, trainer NY Cowboy said that he projects a “brutal” pace set up by Outback Bloodhound, Awesome Kingmambo, and Deadmoney Cadet (and I’ll add Lion’s Slew and Nureyev’s Ghost and perhaps Symboli Bird to that list).  His expectation is that Swapsco Kitty will to “sit close” and wait “for the best moment to take over.”  So I’d look for her to be somewhere between seventh and tenth early; she may well time her move off Deadmoney Cadet as she did in the G1 Movieland Futurity.

She has a huge chance in here and her connections are said to be “pretty confident.”  I know many neutrals will be rooting for her to do something incredible (again).

#9 Dark Storm Rising 11-1 has never won a stakes race of any kind but many punters are backing the son of Bernardini to break his stakes duck in the biggest race of them all.  Based on male “dam” Striking Storm (Smart Strike), who won three sprint turf stakes, including the G3 Mr. Anderson Special and the G2 Rising Sun Spring Cup, topping out at a 119 SF, Dark Storm Rising has never tried the turf. 

What he has done is post three consecutive speed figures at 105 or higher and run second in three straight graded stakes routes, the most recent of which was in the G1 Arkansas Juvenile, my top-rated of the seven Derby Lock preps.  That day, he sat in the back, tracked by eventual winner Hidden Idenity.  Benefitting from a suicidal pace up front, he came charging hard to best all but the winner in the lane at 6-1 odds, leaving behind him four graded stakes winners.  Ultimately, it was Hidden Idenity’s superior acceleration on the turn that made the difference.

Dark Storm Rising earned a race rating of 112 for the Arkansas Juvenile, third best in the field, and his turn time rating (118) is second only to Hidden Idenity.  Bernardini’s influence should be enough to counteract the speedy strain (Storm Cat is his dam-dam-sire) in the tail line.  He’s a major player.

#10 Symboli Bird 16-1 spent Monday night heading for the also-eligibles list but drew in when Gold Sensation and Mount Midoriyama were pulled out at the last moment.  A Japan-bred son of Symboli Kris S, he comes in with the lowest earnings in the race ($313,000) but is a Grade III winner who established his high class in running third last December behind the two juvenile champions in the G1 Movieland Futurity. 

Like many Derby hopefuls, the Bird did not take flight until route races became available to the two year-old crop.  He won a maiden special weight race over this track by open lengths last August (SF 85) at 1 1/16 miles and took a listed stakes event at a mile in West Virginia in November two starts later (SF 100).  His longshot third in the Movieland Futurity (SF 105) stamped him as a possible Derby contender, a status he validated over the same California surface in February 6th’s Scam S. G3 at 1 1/8 miles. 

Symboli Bird showed up in the G1 Florida Derby in April as the favorite, but he never really got going early, abandoning his pace pressing tactics from the Scam for more of a stalking trip (he sat 5th on the rail behind a wall of horses that day).  He was empty in the stretch and ended up seventh.  He’s probably looking at a similar trip today if he’s fast enough.  He flew home in the Scam and he’s a contender if the Florida flop is just a throwout.

#11 Nureyev’s Ghost 18-1 was thought to be off the Derby trail for months.  He won the End of the Line Futurity (G1) here last October and then ran a good fourth in the Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile.  But after a dull eighth in the G1 Movieland Futurity, instead of being freshened for a Derby march, this Ghostzapper scratch-bred took a shot in a Grade II race at a mile on the turf.  He didn’t take to that surface, struggling home in 12th place.

Nureyev’s Ghost returned a month later in the G2 Sleepy Fan S. in California, where he led for six furlongs before fading to fourth behind Power Grab.  The 100 speed figure and finishing position were promising enough, but Nureyev’s Ghost skipped all the Derby Lock races and instead resurfaced in the G3 Derby Trial here on April 23.  He pressed the pace there and finished second.  It wasn’t a strong field.

The racing world was shocked when his connections submitted an entry slip just moments before the deadline for the Bluegrass Derby.  The only horse in the field who did not appear in any Derby Lock race, Nureyev’s Ghost is a need-the-lead type who adds additional sizzle to the front end.  The closers must have been ecstatic when they heard he’d be replacing plodding closer Yer Yellow in the starting gate. 

Nureyev’s Ghost hasn’t won a race in seven months.  This is a heck of a spot to try to break a losing streak.

#12 Lightning Strife 13-1 made an impressive middle move in the G1 Corkscrew S. in his first attempt at 1 1/8 miles, finishing third (SF 104) in what looks like a very strong prep for this.  His race two back in the G3 Buccaneer Derby over a wet track in Florida (SF 110) still stands as one of the best three year-old races to date, and on the same scale as the All Saints Derby this colt would have achieved an E2 rating of 120, a remarkable number for a closer, and by far the best of any hopeful in this field.  A closer who has more tactical speed than a lot of the plodding types in here, this son of Awesome Again should be well positioned to launch a bid before many of the other threatening closers make their moves.  Tactical speed of this kind is a big advantage in a huge field as it gives him a chance to avoid trouble.

A lifetime winner of nearly $900,000, this colt appears to be back into top form, with plenty of back class (winner of the G1 North Fork S. as a two year-old) to call on.  This is dam Magpie’s Cat’s (Storm Cat) third graded stakes winner, and Lightning Strife’s family includes G1-winning sister Stormy Lyric (Unbridled’s Song). 

#13 Papa’s Ghost Ted 17-1 is the only horse in the field to have run in two separate Derby Lock preps, having finished 3rd in Dubai before a 7th-place flop off two weeks’ rest in the G1 Corkscrew.  His efforts in G1 Sand Castle Derby and the G1 Vermont is 4 Lovers were sneaky good, and note that he won a 1 3/16 mile listed stakes back in January. 

I’m going to give him a pass for the Corkscrew clunker as I think he came back too quickly.  With four weeks off before this, he could be live.  His Sand Castle produced a late pace fig of 122, fifth best in the field, and even though he made no impact in the Corkscrew he still produced a good late kick (LP 118). 

The only Cal-bred in the field, this one has a modest pedigree.  Sire Papa Clem has no graded winners from 172 foals.  Dam Taser Zapped T (Ghostzapper) produced a line of just 1-1-1 from 16 starts.  This is her third foal and by far her most accomplished.

If not for a so-so effort in the Corkscrew, he’d look like a serious contender.  Don’t sleep on this longshot. 

#14 Awesome Kingmambo 14-1 gave about as balanced an effort as one can in his second place finish in the G1 Corkscrew S. here four weeks ago: E1 99, E2 100, Turn Time 101, Pace Power Factor 101, LP 98, Rating 98.5.  His 12th career race, the Corkscrew represented perhaps his best effort to date, as he was the only horse in the top four placings early to finish in the top five at the wire.  While his line looks like a “fade” line, his balanced pace figures indicate that he was rationing his speed well and just didn’t face anything that could run with him early.  Indeed, this reporter covered that race and pegged it as “devoid of [early] speed.” 

A scratch-bred by Awesome Again, this colt had won five straight races prior to his second place Corkscrew finish.  His G2 Fountain of Ute win was special and was flattered when that race’s 6th place finisher, I Love Lucy’s Kash, just missed in the G1 Florida Derby (2nd by a neck). 

It will be interesting to see if he can settle behind speedball Outback Bloodhound; he can’t possibly outrun him to the first turn, can he?  While this one has rarely been headed, his handlers have brilliantly found him fields where he can control the pace.  But he’s never popped early fractions like ‘Bloodhound’.  The outside draw could be a hindrance to him; he has a lot of extra ground to cover to get clear.

#15 Hidden Idenity 13-1 is an Uncle Mo x A.P. Indy x Fappiano scratch-bred who gives his sire a real chance at a Kentucky Derby (Nyquist, Outwork, Mo Tom) / Bluegrass Derby double this year.  After beginning his career with just one win in six tries, including a seventh-place finish in his only stakes appearance, this colt has taken off.  He won two 1 1/16 mile allowance races by open lengths in December and January and stepped up impressively to 1 1/8 in winning the listed From Now to Eternity stakes in Illinois (SF 103).

The deep closer served notice to the division in a very fast renewal of the G2 Land’s End, coming from far back in the field to nearly nail winning front-runner Awesome Indy Wells on the wire.  The speed figure for each of the top two in that race was a gaudy 110, and while the Land’s End is not part of my figure making array (because it is not a final Derby prep), on the same scale he would have gotten an eye-popping 144 late pace figure in that race, the best in this field by a full length!  He then validated that performance with an impressive win in the G1 Arkansas Juvenile, leading a closers’ cavalry charge to the wire, and outkicking Dark Storm Rising to victory. 

The Arkansas Juvenile had a suicidal pace (E1 106, E2 111) – by far the fastest of the nine furlong Derby Lock Preps (par for the 9f preps was 99/97) – but Hidden Idenity’s performance in the Land’s End was not aided by such a setup; the figures there were only slightly faster than par early.  (Note: Figure analysis shows that the Land’s End should be a very key race this year.) 

The only question for me then is whether or not Hidden Idenity will handle the distance.  With A.P. Indy and Fappiano on the bottom there is little worry about the dam’s side.  The issue – as with Nyquist, who will go favored in the Kentucky Derby – is with Uncle Mo.  Mo was brilliant up to 1 1/16 miles but he flopped as a three year-old in the Wood Memorial.  In the sim, his best runners have tended to top out at about eight to nine furlongs.  But given this one’s style and the way he’s improved with distance, I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.  He’s my top selection.

#16 Vyrantium 11-1 has never gone longer than 1 1/16 miles and has a true sprinter’s pedigree.  Sire More Than Ready reminded everyone of his brilliance when he returned from the Derby trail in the seven-furlong King’s Bishop at Saratoga, and his get tends to be sprint- and middle-distance-oriented, especially when not backed up by a stout dam’s side.  Vyrantium’s dam (by Storm Cat out of a Mr. Prospector mare) is all speed, and she was at her best at 1 1/16 miles (won a listed stakes with a 115 SF, 2nd in the G2 Pitcher Molly).  Two stakes-winning half brothers to Vyrantium (from stout sires, to boot) have done their best running in sprints or at a mile.

Still, one cannot overlook the fact that this is a very serious racehorse who is prolific around two turns.  He missed by just a head in the G1 End of the Line Futurity and by a half-length in the Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile, both over this race track, last October.  He topped a 100 SF in each attempt, and then followed it up with a strong 4th behind Swapsco Kitty and Deadmoney Cadet in the G1 Hollywood Futurity showdown between those two champions.  His 3yo debut win at a mile (G3 Dubai 2000 Guineas) was impressive as was his fast-closing second in the All Saints Derby (G1).  Vyrantium was the only horse to hit the superfecta that day that wasn’t on the pace as Outback Bloodhound went wire to wire.  Vyrantium looked the part of a Derby horse that day, and the final figure (SF 108) backed it up, though the late pace figure (106) was light for a horse who comes from the back.  There is a risk that this is a bit of a grinder-type, more suited for the bottom of the ticket.  Still, if he can improve on the stretch-out, he’s a factor for at least a piece.

#17 Double Dissolution 18-1 (Sepoy) seeks to become the first Aussie-bred winner of the Bluegrass Derby per research by Pete (Trotter1).  Just 1-for-6 as a two year-old, this colt blew through his conditions upon turning three by winning an entry-level allowance, the G2 Moises Alou Cap, and the G1 Corkscrew in rapid succession.  In the Moises Alou, he closed from dead last at the half to win by a head at 14-1 odds at 1 1/16 miles.  And while that field looked suspect, his win in the Corkscrew was absolutely bona fide.  As in the Moises Alou, he broke dead last and was dead last at the half before beginning a very late move.  He was flying late and won by nearly two lengths, pulling clear with every stride.  Another 50 yards and he might have won by ten lengths. 

This colt reminds me a bit of Cigar – impeccably bred for the turf but ended up preferring dirt stardom.  His record on turf: 2-0-0-1 for $5,620.  On dirt?  7-4-2-1 for over $1.2 million.

Trainer Lado told me Tuesday morning that he was supremely confident of Double Dissolution’s ability to hit the exacta in the Corkscrew and earn his berth in the Derby field.  Expect him to be dead last early again; Lado stated that he wants his colt to be part of a “cavalry charge” and will probably commence his move midway down the backstretch.  Lado also said he expects a driving, blanket finish.  One must imagine he’ll have a couple fitful nights of sleep coming up.

Double Dissolution’s speed figure from the Corkscrew (108) absolutely stamps him as a contender; he was possibly the most impressive winner of all seven Derby Lock prep races.  His late pace figure over this track was a tremendous 140 and he earned a race rating of 114 for that performance.  He is a must use in exotics.

Don’t tell winner #18 Bloodboiling 15-1 that the G1 Wooden Indian came up weak.  In just his sixth career start, he flew through the New York stretch to pick up his first-ever stakes win, earning a SF of 104 in winning by nearly three widening lengths.  The deep closer earned a late pace figure of 124 that day, fourth best in the field.  Notably, he improved his performance in handling the extra sixteenth of a mile he picked up in moving from a runner-up finish in the G3 Gary Asher Memorial S.  Deep closers in the Sim tend to do better with distance, and with an extra furlong to do his work he’s dangerous.

Unbeaten at two, sire Violence (Medaglia D’oro) never got to try classic distances, having been retired after a runner-up effort in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, though he won two route graded stakes, including the G1 Hollywood Futurity.  The bottom side of the pedigree provides ample stamina, as dam Creeping Flow (Tiznow) won nearly $600,000, including a runner-up finish in a Grade II race at two miles. 

#19 King Bobby’s 25-1 connections had to sweat out life on the bubble but drew in.  A member of Shanghai Bobby’s second crop, this colt has just two wins lifetime but comes in off second-place finishes in the G2 Moises Alou Cap (SF 106) and the G1 California Derby (SF 103).  He did well to wrest the lead away from the other pace horses in the Moises Alou before being nailed on the line by Double Dissolution, who came from 14th place in that field.  Note also that he made a bold move to take a brief lead in his last before succumbing to late-running winner Sipi Falls. 

Sire Shanghai Bobby (Harlan’s Holiday) started his Sim career with a bang, with two year-old scratch-bred Legends Blend winning the G1 Ana Delia Memorial in March 2014.  His progeny have no graded stakes wins since.  Needless to say, King Bobby got his class from his dam, If IWere King (Kingmambo), the mother of G2-winning juvenile Informative (Admire Moon).  

His running style makes him interesting.  Of those in the field, only he, Swapsco Kitty, and Yellow Fangs figure to stack up behind the anticipated speed duel.  If he fires, he could get that run to the lead he got in the Moises Alou.  But for me he’s an outsider.

#20 I Love Lucy’s Kash 14-1 served notice to this division over this track last November, when he won the G2 Club S. by three and a half lengths going away (SF 102).  It was a Breeders’ Bowl caliber performance, though he didn’t develop quickly enough to run in the fall showpiece.  He returned to the races in Louisiana in January, coming from second last to finish second amongst a very good field in the G3 Legoland (102 SF). 

Kashbarn Racing Stables’ manager decided on this mating while watching an episode of “I Love Lucy,” hence the name.  He represents his barn’s first-ever Bluegrass Derby starter.

A winner of $725,000 lifetime, this scratch-bred was sent to Florida to prepare for the Bluegrass Derby.  He threw in a clunker two back in the G2 Fountain of Ute (SF 97, 6th), a race that his trainer described as a “throw away race”; in hindsight, I was told, his connections thought maybe he was a bit overtaxed coming into that race and could have used more time off.  He opened eyes with his fast-closing second in the G1 Florida Derby (SF 107).  In a field in which the first and third finishers were within a length of the leader at the first call, I Love Lucy’s Kash came from 13th place to roar at Yellow Fangs, missing by just a neck.  His late pace figure of 133 is second-tops in this field and his race rating of 109 is fourth best.  With Awesome Again, A.P. Indy, and Alydar in the pedigree, he should handle the distance.  If the Florida Derby version of this colt shows up, look out.

By the Numbers (Derby Lock Preps Only)

Top (Sim) Speed Figure:
1.  Outback Bloodhound 110
2.  Hidden Idenity 109
3.  Vyrantium 108.3
4.  Double Dissolution 108.2
5.  Yellow Fangs 107.8

Top Race Rating:
1.  Hidden Idenity 119
2.  Double Dissolution 114
3.  Dark Storm Rising 112
4.  I Love Lucy’s Kash 109
5.  Yellow Fangs 106

Different from the Sim’s Speed Figure, I compute the Race Rating based on a combination of pace figures and other situational factors.  (The number is computed using the same computer that that dating website uses to compute its “37 factors of compatibility.”)  The five-point drop from Hidden Idenity to Double Dissolution is significant.

Top Turn Time:
1.  Hidden Idenity 122
2.  Dark Storm Rising 118
3.  Double Dissolution 117
4.  Sipi Falls 115
5.  Bloodboiling 113

This measures ability of a horse to crank up between the half mile and six furlong pace calls.  Critical to building enough momentum to see through an extended closing run for closers and the key to winning a pace duel on the front end. 

Not surprisingly, the top five are all deep closers as they expend no energy in the first half mile and essentially “drop into the race” half way in.  The top turn time amongst pace horses is Outback Bloodhound’s 108.

Top Pace Power Factor:
1.  Outback Bloodhound 125
2.  Hidden Idenity 110
3.  Dark Storm Rising 109
Nothing else above 101

Outback Bloodhound’s superior Pace Power Factor (another one of my algorithms) may well spell death for anything which attempts to press the early pace.

Selections

I’d be kidding if I said I could pick the winner out of this wide open mess. But I’ll go with:
1.  Hidden Idenity
2.  Double Dissolution
3.  Dark Storm Rising
4.  Outback Bloodhound
5.  I Love Lucy’s Kash