Bluegrass Derby Angles: Early Speed, Rest, High Price of Juvenile Success

The Battle of the Crazy Eights

In Winning at the Races: Computer Discoveries in Thoroughbred Handicapping (don’t get too excited, he wrote the book in the 1970s; the “computer” he used was something like ENIAC II) William Quirin invented what are now known as the Quirin Speed Points.  I won’t belabor here the mechanics of computing the speed points other than to mention that a horse who shows nothing but “1” in the early calls of each of its last three races is generally assigned a score of 8, which is the highest early speed possible.

When multiple eights appear in one race, the likelihood of a brutal speed duel and pace meltdown is large.  The Bluegrass Derby field contains two eights: Outback Bloodhound and Awesome Kingmambo, two of the biggest speedballs in racing.  In eight career races, Outback Bloodhound has never been headed through the E2 call and has only once trailed at the stretch call (2nd by a quarter length three back on a wet track).

In eleven of Awesome Kingmambo’s twelve career races, he’s led by at least a length at the stretch call.  In three dirt stakes races, he’s led by a combined 13 lengths at the half mile call.

Prior to being outrun to the first call by Outback Bloodhound in the All Saints Derby, Lion’s Slew showed nothing but “1” in the first three calls of all of his career races.

Don’t miss the break.

Back in Six Days…

I’ve been working on the Derby for weeks and I thought I knew all the candidates for the field as of two weeks ago.  I must admit that Gold Sensation was not on my radar off a win in the G3 Chicago Derby.  The son of Zensational skipped all the Derby Lock preps and showed up in last Sunday’s G1 The First Day in May and blew the doors off a so-so field at 1 1/8 miles (SF 106).

The next day, trainer Magpies01 submitted an entry slip for the big dance.  The colt has won five straight races and must have come out of his last race in good shape.  He’s already a Grade I winner over this track.  He’s getting one more day of rest than a major league pitcher.  I won’t even try to guess how he’ll handle it.

Breaking: Wooden Indian runner-up Mount Midoriyama has also entered the Derby field coming out of the same race.

…Back in Six Weeks

Much has been made of Destin heading to the Kentucky Derby straight from a win in the Tampa Bay Derby.  Many trainers in the Bluegrass Derby field have the luxury of giving their charges six weeks’ rest heading into the big race by virtue of success in the March 26 Derby Lock preps.

Swapsco Kitty and Power Grab, the top two finishers in the G1 Sand Castle Derby, and All Saints Derby exacta pair Outback Bloodhound and Vyrantium will have had 42 days between races when they enter the gate on Derby Day.  Lion’s Slew, 12th in New Orleans but qualified through an earlier Vermont Grade I win at 1 1/8 miles, has also been able to bypass the April races to head straight for Louisville.  Will they be sharp from the start or rusty?  Let’s hope speedsters Outback Bloodhound and Lion’s Slew have had a recent gate work.

The High Price of Juvenile Success

Two year-old champion Deadmoney Cadet has moved backwards by several lengths since winning the Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile.  He would be a huge surprise on Saturday.  That race’s favorite, Nureyev’s Ghost, finished 4th in Kentucky and has nothing but a Grade III placing to show for his last four outings.  G1 Movieland Futurity third place finisher Symboli Bird was seventh in the Florida Derby.  Even Swapsco Kitty was beaten in her three year-old debut.

In the meantime, Derby Lock winners Double Dissolution (one win in six races at age two), Hidden Identity (two for seven), and Bloodboiling (debuted in late October 2015) were anonymous juveniles who took low-stress paths through their infancy.  In the Sim we call these fresh horses; in real life they tend to be called “new shooters.”  Bet one in the Preakness this year.