So Much Promise

One of three graded Florida graded stakes this Saturday, The Grade II Davola Dane South gets its ninth running. 

Most of these twelve young fillies have had  a route or two under their belts, so we have some past experience to judge them from, but with half of the field still looking for a fifth stakes point, there is a lot of uncertainty and a lot of room for improvement.  This stakes has attracted several of the most expensively bred fillies of their age class.

Most of the past winners have not gone on to greatness – four of the past five winners haven’t won a graded stakes since. 

This hasn’t been a race kind to long shots.  Only once has the winner had odds greater than 5-1, and that winner, 2005’s Hasting, was the second choice in the wagering at 7-1.

Here is a look at this year’s field:

1. Four races into Zarallana’s (El Prado x A.P. Indy) career, Sonsierra (14%) looked to have a respectable, if not spectacular, turf runner in this expensive filly.  A switch to dirt flipped a switch in her.  She’s three for three since, including two stakes wins and comes here off a win at the distance with the highest speed figure here.  Stalking style is always dangerous.  Much to like.  7-1.

2. In a Spin (Spinning World x Victory Gallop) ran seven times as a two year old, every one a listed stakes on the grass.  GrtNotion (11%) moved her to the dirt for her first three year old race and keeps her on the surface as she stretches out and takes a large step in class.  Spin’s trying several unfamiliar things here.  This is her first graded stakes, her first time against more than six foes, and her first route on the dirt.  It’s here second route ever (She faded mildly in here first), and only the second time in here career she has not been the favorite.  Deserves a chance here, but she may well get another first: first time out of the money.  10-1.

3. Architectonics (Arch x Chester House) has made the early lead in all but one of her starts, and that time the Devilsdoo (14%) trainee showed little interest.  Unfortunately, she’s only been able to hold on to that lead for a maiden win.  The rise in class seems ambitious.  She’s a key horse here because she has to go for the lead again, and she’s apt to doom the fate of any other who go for that early lead.  10-1.

4. Last year, the most coveted freshman sire was Ghostzapper.  His get have won several stakes, but we point out that after 566 races, they’re still looking for a second graded win.  (And yes, I’ve tried to breed to him, but haven’t been able to get one.)  Otto Geo (Ghostzapper x Mr. Prospector) has shown the ability to close from well back.  Considering the investment, it seems entirely reasonable for Lurve (20%) to step her from her maiden win six weeks ago up to this level.  With only three races, she is the least experienced one here, but if you had your choice of one to take home with you, you would want one of the Ghostzapper fillies.  We’ll see if this one is ready for this.  8-1.

5. New stable Glitercod (4%) has only one horse with a win to its credit, but she’s a very nice one.  Home Forty (Came Home x Forty Niner) has been in the money in five of her last six races.  The move from finishing third in a four horse Argentina listed stakes to this Grade II affair is probably overly ambitious, and she faces the same filly that beat her soundly there, but we understand the stable’s desire and wish them luck.  11-1.

6. Spooky Wildcat (Ghostzapper x Storm Cat) has three wins and a third in her three starts.  She comes in off a stalking win in that small listed race in Argentina at a mile and one sixteenth.  Expertly handled by Photo41st (15%), she looks primed for this effort.  No flaws are apparent for this morning line favorite.  9-2.

7. With a second in the Breeders Bowl, and a couple of other close graded finishes, Dixie Burning (Dixie Union x Aptitude) is the highest ranked filly here – by a large margin.  The OkieDokie (11%) trained filly has more than three times the earnings per race of any other filly in here.  Jockey V. Gardner is off to a huge lead in the Florida jockey standings, already winning over a million dollars with 27 wins in 2007.  Often there is reason to be cautious of the big two year old winners once the three year old season gets underway.  Dixie’s first race as a three year old, however, was a very nice second against better than she sees here.  For those who handicap by class, this is a very easy race to pick.  6-1.

8. Plumes of Peace (Unbridled’s Song x Pulpit) made rapid progression through her conditions for Borrow (12%), and she was getting better every race right up  through her 3^rd as the favorite in the Grade II Boca on this track.  She had a small setback in the Santa Jezebel last time, finish a lengthening four and a half lengths behind Dixie Burning.  This field is not as accomplished as the Santa Jezebel, so the barn has every reason to hope for a return to form.  6-1.

9. Freeonline (Freefourinternet x Private Terms) has won three of her last four races, including one against a weak listed field last time.  Clo (8%) decides to try her in a route for the first time.  The modest bred filly is not given much respect by the oddsmakers.  Speed figures need to improve quite a bit to be competitive.  The hope is that happens as she makes her first start at the distance and as a three year old.  Young sire’s get have not shown much at routes yet.  22-1.

10. Augustus Bay (Elusive Quality x Deputy Minister) rallied smartly for a decent fourth in the Grade III Reflection Futurity last time.  She started her short career on the turf and this is just her third start on dirt.  She’s showing steady improvement for the crafty Catomine (21%) stable, and they always bring them well meant.  Would be no surprise.  9-1.

11. Pravda’s (Kingmambo x Pleasant Colony) only loss came in a decent fourth against a strong Grade II field.  Several in here are coming off of listed wins, and so is Pravda, but her win came against a larger and stronger field than most faced.  The Super10 (21%) stable entered this one just minutes before entries closed.  They think they’ve found the truth and the winner against this field.  They may have.  6-1.

12. Throw out the distant last place finish last time for Longasicanseedalight (El Prado x Touch Gold).  It was on a yielding turf course.  Trainer Whoami2 (7%) switches her to dirt for the first time since her first race.  Which wasn’t good either.  She had a couple nice races in grassy sprints early in her two year old season, and nothing much since.  It is hard to find reason for optimism.  At 27-1, this seems to be an egregious underlay. 

Top Threes:

Morning Line:         Spooky Wildcat    Dixie Burning         Plumes of Peace

Speed Last Race:   Zarallana               Spooky Wildcat     Pravda

Best Speed Dist:     Zarallana               Pravda                  Augustus Bay

Current Class:         Dixie Burning        Plumes of Peace    Pravda

Early Speed:           Architectonics       In a Spin                Zarallana

Late Speed:            Spooky Wildcat    Pravda                   Dixie Burning

Timmn’s Picks:       Dixie Burning         Pravda                   Zarallana