Hard Gulch Memorial draws eight

The boys got their chance last week, and they turn over the track to the female marathoners this week in Virginia’s feature race, the Hard Gulch Memorial. The races invites all fillies and mares four years old and older to run over fourteen furlongs of firm turf for a piece of the $45000 purse. The race skipped a running last year after it’s inaugural running in 2005, but has come back this year to once again highlight top female long turfers. The 2005 edition was won by Carson A. S. who smashed a field of six by nearly nine lengths, to win the second of what would turn into a streak of six straight stakes victories. Longer routes seem to be gaining in popularity, with this year’s race drawing eight contenders, a slightly larger field than we normally see for a race of this length. Oddsmakers didn’t want any part of this one, with six of the seven contenders falling in the 3/1 to 6/1 odds range. That spells an exciting race for Virginia race fans, and a quandry for the bettors in the crowd.

PP 1) Otto Platinum Sired by Mineshaft, trained by verona. Otto Platinum is a lightly raced five year old mare, making her fourteenth career run here. She has seven wins in her first thirteen starts, and she is trying to break her stakes jinx here. Her last ten starts have netted her a 6-1-0-1-0 record, with a best speed of 97.3 earned in a Grade 3 place last autumn. Her last race was an A-T in DC, where she ambled to a nearly fourteen length victory at little more than a canter. She has split her career fairly evenly between dirt and turf, and has had good success on both surfaces. Her speeds have averaged slightly better on the grass. She started running marathons nearly as early as she could find them, and has done quite well, winning six of nine starts at twelve furlongs and beyond. Four of those victories have come at the two mile mark, and this one definitely has no stamina problems. She has had some success as both a stalker and a deep closer, but tends to struggle if she has to work her way out of mid pack. There is a dearth of early speed in this one, and that could work quite well for her. Box this one in the exotics at 11/1 odds. Discounting her last two she has more than enough speed to challenge this field, and if she gets a good breakm she could conceivably run away with this one.

PP 2) Erin Express Sired by Machiavellian, Trained by 4play. Erin Express is a six year old mare, who is running in her fifty sixth career race in this one. She has six career stakes wins, with her most recent coming late last year. Over the course of her last ten starts she has run to a 1-3-3-1-1 record, with a best speed of 96.9 earned on an off track last summer. Her last race was a thirteen furlong stakes in Jamaica where she finished fifth in a field of six, with her close never really firing. She has stakes wins on both surfaces, but long turf has been her payday. Beyond twelve furlongs, she has sixteen top three finishes in twenty career starts on turf. She runs as a deep closer, but her close has been spotty over her last few, and she seems to have better luck being closer to the pace in these longer races. Her best speeds tend to be at a slightly shorter distance than she faces here. The slower early pace should benefit her here, but she is running against a lot of more lightly raced competition. This one could be an uphill battle for her.

PP 3) Balinor Sired by Fantastic Light, Trained by gregchilds. Balinor enters her thirty fifth start here as the race favorite. She is a five year old mare who has one stakes win among her five career victories. In her last ten starts, she has run to a 1-6-1-0-1 record, with a best speed of 98.7 earned just before autumn last year. Her last race was a thirteen furlong stakes in Illinois where she finished second in a field of eight. She is strictly a turf runner, having never even tried dirt, which is quite unusual for a mare of her age. She has experienced success in routes at any distance from eight outward, and her best range seems to be about ten to eleven furlongs. She has shown the stamina to go a bit longer, but this race is at the outside of her range. She runs as a midpack closer, and although she’s only brought one home out of her last seventeen, for the most part she manages to keep the races close. A slow early pace here should put her just off the lead and leave her plenty of enrgy for the second half. Look for her to be in the mix, but the distance is too long to call her a winner here.

PP 4) K’s Kachet Sired by Pine Bluff, Trained by vertigo2. K’s Kachet is racing in her five year old season, with twenty three previous starts under her belt. After running smartly up through her conditions, she has four stakes wins in her last ten starts. Over all in those ten, she is 5-3-0-1-0 with a best speed of 97.5 earned in the midle of last year. Her last start was a stakes at this distance in Mississippi, where she finished a closing second in a field of four. She has stakes wins on both surfaces, but her route speeds are significantly higher on the average on turf. She has seven top two finishes in eight runs at twelve furlongs and beyond, and two of her stakes wins have come at the distance she is running here. She is a deep closer, and when she’s on form, her close can be excellent. She appears to cycle about every other race, running a great race then falling off in the next. If the cycle holds she should be peaking here. The slow early pace is to her benefit, and if she closes like she is capable of, she should be a threat down the stretch.

PP 5) Festival Day(IRE) Sired by Ballingarry(IRE), Trained by tabascomet. Festival Day(IRE) is a young four year old filly who makes her seventeenth career appearance in this race. She has just recently graduated to stakes level and she is still seeking that first stakes win. Over her last ten starts, she has run to a 2-2-1-2-1 record, with a best speed of 95.8 which she ran right here in Virginia early last September. Her last start was a sixteen furlong stakes in Rhode Island, where she finished second in a field of four. She spend the bulk of the first half of her career on dirt, but after several setbacks at allowance level, she decided to try turf again, and it paid off for her. Her last was her first beyond ten furlongs, and her speed was not particualrly impressive, although she did manage to hang close the whole race. She seems to be at her most comfortable in the mile range. She has generally run as a midpack closer, but seems to have better success when she stalks just off the pace. If she stay close on the lead early here, she could collect a check. If she drops too far back early, she’ll have trouble catching up in a race this long.

PP 6) Hail To The King Sired by Kingmambo, Trained by redturkey. Hail To The King is a five year old mare, and she carries the highest Long Turf ranking in the field at 15. In thirty three career starts, she has ten stakes victories, including two at Grade I level. Her last ten runs have netted her a 3-3-2-1-0 record, with a best speed of 94.5, earned in her last start. That race was an eleven furlong stakes in Alabama, where she finished fourth in a field of twelve, closing hard down the stretch, but having too much ground to make up. She has had a few dirt starts sprinkled throughout her career, but has far and away been a better performer on grass. She bided her time patiently until she could get herself some long routes, then just exploded, posting nine wins and sixteen top three finishes in nineteen turf starts at twelve furlongs and beyond. She is a deep closer, and her close has been quite consistent, though she has had trouble making up some of the deeper holes she’s found herself in. This race is tailor made for her with a slower ealy pace, and she should be well within striking distance as they turn for home. Look for her to be closing hard down the stretch, and she should figure in the trifecta at the very least.

PP 7) Nexcenica(IRE) Sired by Scenic(IRE), Trained by dreamscity. Nexcenica(IRE) is a four year old filly gracing the track for the sixteenth time. She is still looking for her first win at stakes level. Her last ten starts have earned her a record of 4-1-0-1-1 record, with a best speed number of 97.8 earned on dirt early last year. Her last start was a thirteen furlong stakes in Jamaica, where she finished a closing second in a field of six. After a good career start on turf, she moved to dirt and performed admirably there as well. Her route speeds have been better on dirt but she carries a better record on the grass. In long routes on turf, she has finished outside the top three only once, and that was in a Grade 2 race on a yielding track. Her best speeds have been in the eleven to twelve furlong range, though she has an allowance win at sixteen. She likes to position herself right at the head of the midpack, and she has done quite well from close off the pace. This isn’t a midpack closers race, with the good deep closers and slightly faster speed out front. She’ll need a career best to bring this one home.

PP 8) Nexis Rainbow Sired by Peintre Celebre(IRE), Trained by zambaygo. Nexis Rainbow is a well run five year old mare, who will make her thirty eighth career run in this race. She count three stakes wins amongst her seven career victories. She has a perfect in the money record over her last ten, going 2-4-1-2-1, posting a best speed of 97.8 earned last autumn. Her last race was a thirteen furlong stakes in Jamaica where she finished fourth in a field of six, finding herself with far too much ground to close in the second half. She gave dirt a fair shake, but she was built for turf, and that’s where she has experienced her success. Long routes also fit that description, where she has five wins and twelve top three finishes in eighteen turf starts at twelve furlongs and beyond. She is a deep closer, and her close has been quite consistent recently. She has a powerful stretch run, but what makes or breaks her is the move between the half marker and the third call. If she gets a good jump at the half, she’ll definitely threaten here, but if she hesitates that will make difference between a top three finish and something further out.