G1 Corkscrew: Lightning Strife, Double Dissolution, Awesome Kingmambo Headline Derby Lock Field

Many places this weekend will claim to be the beginning of the road to the Bluegrass Derby, but the shortest trip to Kentucky is from Kentucky itself.  The Grade I Corkscrew Stakes here in Kentucky goes off around 3 PM ET on Saturday afternoon, and the winner is guaranteed a spot in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May.

The field is headlined by three graded stakes winners:

#10 Lightning Strife 7/1 – The lone Grade I winner in the field would go over $1 million lifetime with a top-two finish today.  It almost seems written in the stars for this colt to win the Bluegrass Derby, being the combination of Awesome Again and foundation mare Magpies Cat, who has thrown three graded stakes winner including G1 Iool Oaks winner Stormy Lyric (Unbridled’s Song).  He played around in sprints early in his career but showed his ability in a G3 win at a mile before winning the G1 North Fork at 1 1/16 miles last September.  He flopped at the Breeders’ Bowl but second time out as a three year-old he took off to win the G3 Buccaneer Derby at 1 1/16 miles over a good track.  He’s very dangerous in here.

#7 Double Dissolution 13/1 – A heck of a price offered on this son of Sepoy.  He comes in off an eye-popping effort in the G2 Moises Alou Cap, closing from dead last at the half to win by a head at 14-1 odds at 1 1/16 miles.  There are questions about the quality of that field (the only other graded stakes winner there, a G3 winner, finished 13th), however, and the performance did come a bit out of left field.  This is the dam’s only stakes winner amongst six foals.  He should relish the extra distance in here and will be running late.

#12 Awesome Kingmambo 8/1 – Scratch-bred has won five straight races in front-running style, including wiring the G2 Fountain of Ute last time out.  He beat three other graded stakes winners in that race and his effort was greatly flattered when that race’s 6th place finisher, I Love Lucy’s Kash, just missed in last week’s G1 Florida Derby (2nd by a neck).  He was never really threatened in his last race, holding all others at bay, and I love the fact that the win was at this distance.  For a 14-horse field this one is certainly devoid of speed and you have to love his chances.

The rest of the field, from the rail out:

#1 Bonsall Drive 9/1 – Malibu Moon scratch-bred as every right to move forward third off the layoff.  His best race was a good 4th in February in the G1 Vermont is 4 Lovers in an even effort.  Faded badly in the G3 Buccaneer Derby last time out behind Lightning Strife.  With a top speed figure of 102 (though at this distance) he might be a bit too slow for these but could get a minor piece.

#2 Papa’s Ghost Ted 8/1 – Cal-bred is a stone-cold closer coming off two sneaky-good efforts (both SF 103) against Grade I company in the Sand Castle Derby and the Vermont is 4 Lovers, finishing 3rd both times.  Already has a stakes win at 1 3/16 miles and he should only continue to improve as the distances increase.  Sire Papa Clem has no graded winners from 168 foals.  This is the kind of horse who could be very dangerous in the Bluegrass… if he gets in.

#3 Distinct Echo 9/1 – Sire Ice Box has just two graded stakes winners from 273 foals.  Half to a stakes winner by Tapit was right next to Lightning Strife down in Tampa, and made a similar move.  But while this one’s move flattened, ‘Strife powered on to victory, leaving Distinct Echo a distant echo in 4th.  Race two back was huge (SF 106 at 1 1/16 miles) in a listed company win.  Will be launching a move from midpack.

#4 Welcome to My Show 13/1 – 3-for-5 lifetime and has a win at the distance, an open-lengths win (SF 100) in a listed stakes in Virginia.  He’s a fast-developing scratch-bred by Tanino Gimlet and could move up but has to do so quickly.

#5 Almosthockeyseason 8/1 – Son of Blame has four wins from six tries, and has a win over this exact trip on this track (SF 104 in February stakes win).  He took a step back in his last, however, but it is good to see him stay on track to prepare for this one and, his connections hope, the Bluegrass.  Should be well placed in the second flight.

#6 Travel On 7/1 – Jumped up big time in the G3 Buccaneer Derby last time out with a speed fig of 109 in finishing a length back in second.  He was making only slow progress on Lightning Strife late, however, and never looked like he was getting past him.  Still, it’s hard to ignore that huge performance.  But is this a slop freak?  His top two performances both came over tracks listed as “good,” including in Tampa… stakes tries on fast tracks have been too bad to be true… dicey.

#8 Stormdrop 9/1 – Second dam was a G3 winner; dam won a stakes race at 1 ¾ miles; sire Lemon Drop Kid won the Belmont Stakes, so this one is bred to run all day.  Big win at 1 1/16 miles last time out (SF 105) in a listed event followed a poor effort at a mile in G3 company.  I’m willing to forgive him that race at a flat mile, as he’s clearly bred to be long-winded.  Certainly one (of many) with a shot.

#9 Tapistort Ted 18/1 – Tapit foal is 3-for-11 lifetime, and has a win at 1 7/16 under his cap already.  G3 Scam effort was poor (8th) and he’s never topped a speed figure of 97.  It doesn’t look like he’s ready for this.

#11 Fallen Madly 12/1 – Sire Verrazano is still looking for his first graded stakes winner but already has seven stakes winners from 131 foals.  Dam has thrown 11 runners, two of which have won stakes (including this one).  Looked good last time out in a stakes win at a mile (SF 100) by open lengths.  He should enjoy the stretch out and will be running late.

#13 Farhh Brown 20/1 – This is the value horse in the field.  Undefeated in just three starts, his mama Ligeia won the G1 Birmingham at 1 ¼ miles as a three year-old.  Farhh colt popped up with a stakes win at 20-1 at 1 1/16 miles last time out, with a big speed figure (106).  He did the business that day in front-running fashion but he doesn’t need the lead (see two pressing trip wins prior).  He’s drawn outside controlling speed Awesome Kingmambo and should get the first crack at him if he tires.  Very, very dangerous.

#14 Gallop Away 14/1 – Tough spot for this son of Victory Gallop.  He’s the most experienced in the field (13 career races) but has won just one of his last seven races.  Graded efforts have been less than impressive.  Outsider.

Selections:

#12 Awesome Kingmambo

#10 Lightning Strife

#13 Farhh Brown

#2 Papa’s Ghost Ted