G1 Wooden Indian: Fourteen Colts Seek First-Ever Grade 1 Win, Derby Ticket
The biggest Saturday of the year thus far is Saturday, April 9, when several tickets to the Bluegrass Derby (G1) are punched. One of those will be handed out to winner of the venerable G1 Wooden Indian, a Derby Lock Prep run at 1 1/8 miles. The main track is expected to be fast. As one would expect, the prestige of the Bluegrass Derby has lured a full field of fourteen.
The fourteen entrants have raced a collective 103 times, winning 49 of those starts. Yet only four of these colts have won in graded-stakes company (Grade II winners Honest Reason, Phenomenon Ted, and Tapit Seeking Gold and Grade III winner Shade of Grey) and three (Bloodboiling, Wrath of Heaven, and Cane River Lake) have never won a stakes race of any kind. It’s no surprise then that this hodgepodge has produced a field in which the eight most-favored entrants are listed at between 7-1 and 9-1 on the morning line (with two more at 11-1).
First, let’s look at the graded stakes winners:
#2 Honest Reason 8/1 – Tale of Ekati scratch-bred annexed the G2 Swale at 6 ½ furlongs after just missing in the G3 Special Bid at six panels. His 105 speed fig in the Swale win is on par with the top figs of others in here. But he regressed in his last two races – both routes, even though he ran a good third in the G2 Fountain of Ute – to figures of 102 and 103, in even efforts. He was a solid fourth last time out in a G1 Derby Lock Prep in the Bayou, but the “merry-go-round” style of his last two races is hardly encouraging. Perhaps he was being held back from his usual front-running tactics as part of a schooling effort. A return to his front-running style may move him up again, but trying that may well be ill-advised given the presence of fireball Tapit Seeking Gold. Dicey.
#4 Tuesday War 8/1 – Four-for-seven lifetime, this son of War Front took the G2 Ransom in New York as a two year-old, but hasn’t improved since. Is this deep closer bred for the distance? You bet he is. His distinguished dam won four Grade I races, including three at the classic distance, amongst them the G1 Birmingham and Players Club National Oaks in New York. This is her only graded stakes winner. It’s possible he bounced off the paired tops in his last, a 96 SF fourth in listed company. Needs to recover here.
#9 Shade of Grey 11/1 – Quality Road colt has never missed the exacta in six tries (four wins). Grinder took the G3 Gary Asher Memorial in workmanlike fashion (SF 102) last time out at 1 1/16 miles. He should get a good trip just behind the speed and, as a lightly raced colt, has every right to continue to move forward.
#11 Tapit Seeking Gold 7/1 – Lukewarm (gently chilled?) favorite is about as fast early as you’ll ever see. He has led at each of the first three calls in his eight career races, winning five times. Scratch-bred son of Tapit won the G2 Hutchingson last time out at 7 ½ furlongs (SF 103). While he’s five-for-six in sprints he sports just a 2-0-1-1 in routes, including an allowance loss. You have to understand why the connections want to try to go onto the Derby (who wouldn’t?), but my guess is that this one becomes a future Grade I performer at the six to seven furlong range. His fading speed is very unlikely to hold in this race, as he adds a panel to his career longest trip. Looks like a spoiler for all the other speed types.
The rest of the field, from the rail out:
#1 Bloodboiling 8/1 – This son of Violence is the first foal of a Tiznow mare who won nearly $600,000, including a runner-up finish in a Grade II race at two miles so there should be no question about the horse’s stamina. He was a fast-closing second behind Shade of Grey in the G3 Gary Asher Memorial last out, making up nearly three lengths on that one in the stretch while missing by a neck. Deep closer will be picking them off late and should relish the extra sixteenth today. And, as a lightly-raced colt, he has every right to move up, especially off the paired 102 SFs.
#3 Phenomenon Ted 11/1 – Son of Giant’s Causeway comes in off an out-of-nowhere SF 105 after never having topped 95 in his first nine races. Can we trust the giraffe fig? But he’s a stakes winner at 1 1/16 miles and could be any kind, especially with his pedigree, with Street Cry and Teofilo in the female side.
#5 Kluj Napoca 7/1 – Son of Galileo has just two dirt races in his career, a listed stakes win and a close third in the G2 Moises Alou Cap, both at 1 1/16 miles. His last race was a huge effort (SF 106), and this one’s family is phenomenal. Dam Indyauror (A.P. Indy) has thrown two other graded stakes-winning colts (G3 winner by Kitten’s Joy and a G2 winner by Unbridled’s Song). Presser/stalker might get the garden spot behind dueling speeds.
#6 Nextgen Jet 9/1 – Experienced colt has raced 10 times thus far, tied for the most in here. Comes in off paired 102 SFs, a listed stakes win at 1 3/16 miles and a 6th-place finish in the Land’s End. Two graded stakes efforts have resulted in off-the-board finishes. He looks a bit over his skis here, though he’s a half to a G3 winner and could move up. Midpack closer’s best chance is to make one run.
#7 Mount Midoriyama 9/1 – After a huge win two back (SF 105 at 1 1/16 miles in listed company), the last race was too bad to be true (9th in the Moises Alou Cap). 3-for-7 lifetime scratch-bred will be making a move from midpack.
#8 Jet for Alex 20/1 – 5-3-2-0 son of Afleet Alex stepped up bigtime in his last, beating 13 rivals in a listed race at 1 1/16 miles (SF 101). That win was achieved in pace-pressing fashion, and it’ll be interesting to see if he can settle in behind some of the speed here, or if he’s hard sent to go with speedy Tapit Seeking Gold. He needs to continue to improve in order to be competitive here but he’s hardly put a foot wrong thus far.
#10 Wrath of Heaven 15/1 – Son of More Than Ready was up to the challenge in his first graded stakes effort, running an SF 101 last out in a G2 BBRS event in finishing 3rd. He’s in deep here, though, and he needs to get his motor running a little more quickly in order to be at the front of the pack at the wire. He has run three straight races at nine furlongs (1-1-1) and there’s no doubt about his ability to go the distance. Consider underneath.
#12 Cane River Lake 18/1 – Louisiana-bred son of E Dubai was a monster as a juvenile, annexing three straight state-bred races and then finishing 3rd on his home track in December’s G3 Sam’s Town Delta Jackpot at 1 1/16 miles (SF 100). His three year-old debut was poor, however, having run 8th of 14 in the G3 Legoland on his home track. He used a state-bred race as a paid workout for this. I’d be inclined to take a longer look at this colt if not for the presence of Tapit Seeking Gold, but this one needs the lead and I can’t see him outrunning that one to the first turn.
#13 Geisha Alley 15/1 – Colt seeks to become Flower Alley’s sixth graded stakes winner… dam My Geisha has thrown nothing but claimers otherwise so this stakes winner at 1 3/16 miles is by far her most distinguished performer. Ran a top speed figure of 100 in a N3L allowance at this distance two back and is improving with distance, but he may just be too slow in here.
#14 Mathematics 9/1 – This son of Street Sense is a real wildcard, having ripped off four straight wins including a SF 105 stakes win at the distance. Scratch-bred is likely to be marooned out wide from post 14 but has improved as he’s stretched out and looks like a potential tiger in the making.
Selections:
Making sense of this field is nearly impossible, as most of these races tend to be. Here’s the shot I’m taking:
#1 Bloodboiling
#5 Kluj Napoca
#9 Shade of Grey
#14 Mathematics
Good luck!