G1 Sydney Cup: Multiple G1-Winner The Eskajesty Good Bet to Reverse Recent Form
Four year-old The Eskajesty (Eskendereya), the lone Grade 1 winner in the field, breaks from post 2 in the $1.5 million Sydney Cup (Grade 1) over 1 ¼ miles Sunday afternoon in Victoria (AUS). The winner of $1.25 million lifetime in just 11 career starts has two Grade 1 wins, both at this distance (Big Red Stakes, SF 111; Roberto Clemente, SF 106), and will be an eye-popping overlay (10/1 odds) to win the biggest payday of his career when he faces nine rivals on Sunday.
While his last two efforts have left much to be desired, The Eskajesty still looks like the horse to beat on paper. His flops in the Mr. Met Cap and King Kong Cup were against fields much, much stronger than this field and finishing mid-pack in those star-studded fields is no disgrace. The big question mark was the weather forecast. Victoria was expected to be bombarded with rain this weekend but the turf is listed as firm for Sunday’s race. The Eskajesty has never faced the soft stuff in 11 races and rain would have moved a couple contenders in here up a couple of lengths. All systems are go for The Eskajesty to return to the high cotton.
The rest of the field, from the rail out:
#1 Streets of Sin 6/1 – Six-for-seven lifetime, the four year-old son of Street Cry is an intriguing option in here. He ran third in his debut in a long turf sprint but has since won six in a row, all turf routes, including an impressive 115 SF in a listed stakes win at 10 ½ furlongs. His 2016 debut was a tune-up romp at the same distance in an allowance race (he won by nearly seven lengths). He will be forwardly place and is a push-button horse. Ignore at your peril.
#3 Ziema 16/1 – The son of Al Kazeem (GB)’s only other graded effort was a disaster a year ago but the four year-old colt is in a much better place now. His last race was a good fast-closing second (SF 115) at 1 3/16 miles at nearly 30-1 in a listed stakes. To open his stakes account with a win here would be a surprise though.
#4 Jintotolo Channel 4/1 – A 10-time winner out of a Grade 1 winning mare, this 5yo is a two-time Grade 3 winner at nine furlongs. His 2015 campaign was a hard but fruitful one and it appears his form tapered off a bit in his last two. He got back on the horse with a good fourth last time out at nine furlongs in Louisiana. His ten furlong form may be good enough for a nibble here (fourth in this race last year) but he’s an underlay at 4-1.
#5 The Joy of Life 7/2 – Favorite has been all the rage since his near-miss second in the G1 King Kong (beating The Eskajesty; SF 115). He was also second here in the venerable G1 Coxless last year at this distance (SF 110) and looks primed for a big one after a 118 SF win at 10f in a listed prep for this. The son of Kitten’s Joy looks good enough to win this but he still doesn’t have a graded stakes win. Tough to swallow that fact at 7/2 odds, but he has a big chance.
#6 Not My Priority 13/1 – Connections must have been heartbroken when the sun came out as this four year-old is 3-for-3 on off turf. Two graded efforts yielded a third place finish in a Grade 3 race at nine furlongs last fall in Delaware and a flop in the aforementioned Roberto Clemente. Has a win over soft ground in a listed event at this distance. Outsider.
#7 Iron Sharpens Iron 8/1 – Dubawi scratch-bred comes in off a dynamite win in the 1 1/8m Double M Memorial (Grade 2) in Louisiana with a SF of 110. That was his first graded stakes win. Ten furlong races have been decent but not stellar (one listed stakes win and one allowance win in four total efforts). Late runner’s most realistic hope is to pick up the pieces late.
#8 Ragspoint Dancer 13/1 – Went from an entry level allowance win to a listed win to a third place finish in a Grade 2 race (nine furlong Nakayama Handicap) in his last three race. Three races at ten furlongs resulted in a 3-1-1-0 line in allowance company. I like the versatility of this colt and he has a right to continue to improve but these are some deep waters.
#9 I’m What’s Right 5/1 – Here’s the big wild card in here. This son of King Kamehameha is absolutely dynamite at the one mile distance and has tactical speed to spare. Two recent Grade 2 wins at one mile have been very impressive and the speed figures match. But he attempts a quarter-mile jump here and attempts to annex his first ever Grade 1. A horse in-bred 3×3 to Mr. Prospector usually wouldn’t be expected to go long but King Kamehameha and second dam’s sire Pleasant Colony are both solid distance influences. Don’t just toss.
#10 No Chance Cadet 7/1 – So long as we’re on wild cards, take a look at this up and comer. The son of Galileo has run just five career races with four wins, including three speed figures of 112 or higher, and a stakes win at 10 ½ furlongs. He’s bred to run all day and his last might be good enough here. If he can go from listed company to a winner of race of this type in race #6, look out world.
Selections:
#2 The Eskajesty
#5 The Joy of Life
#10 No Chance Cadet
#7 Iron Sharpens Iron