Woke Up Screamin Heads Betting in Bargain Juvenile

Race 15 on this weekends exciting Ohio card is the Charlie’s Tiger Juvenile, open to all bargain bred two year olds, and contested on the dirt track over seven furlongs. An open betting race, finding the winner is going to prove far from easy, as half the field looks capable of running the type of race required to take home the major slice of $125,000

The early market for the race is:

5/1 – Woke Up Screamin

6/1 – Edgar Winter, Rhapsodes

7/1 – Gold Cruise

8/1 – Who’s The Boss, Flagit

9/1 – Wonnaby Great

14/1 – New Silver, Model Q

15/1 – The Midas Touch

16/1 – Get Outa Dodge, Jacobyte Indyan

22/1 – Follow the Plan

42/1 – Chantili Nayef

Looking through the field in the racebook order:

# 1 – Edgar Winter: Lightly raced, with just the two previous starts, this colt has done enough in those two races to indicate that he’ll be capable of giving this a real shake. Both his runs were over the six and a half, and he stopped the clock in 1.18.2 on each occasion, winning the first, and running second in the other. His lack of experience at this level, compared with much of his opposition, combined with his obvious potential and the advantage of the inside draw, has led the oddsmakers to treat him with respect, installing him on the second line of betting. Sire Western Winter (Gone West) had three stakeswinners from 31 runners in his now three year old crop, and this colt aims to join Westerner as the second black type winner from eight runners in this year’s crop. Unreal Zeal (Mr. Prospector) is having a good damsire year with two winners to date from nine to take to the track. Palatable (Tom Rolfe) currently valued at 5 points, completes the bloodline. wariuz2 will learn much more about the ability of this bargain bred from this race, and he adds interest to the field as an unknown quantity with definite potential. He’ll be well ridden, and a top run should be expected. 

# 2 – Woke Up Screamin: Already a dual stakes placed colt, this smart runner has more than repaid his breeding costs as he’s embarked on a program which has him perfectly prepared for this event. lamepony had no fear of excess inbreeding to Storm Cat when settling on the combination for the youngster. Woke Up Dreamin, a son of Holy Bull from a Storm Cat mare, with Tactical Cat, himself a son of Storm Cat as the damsire looks to have worked well on this occasion. Desert Wine (Damascus) makes up the third line of the pedigree. This resultant offspring currently heads the earnings list of the twenty one strong, first season crop of his reasonably popular sire, and a win here would expand that gap enormously. Woke Up Screamin took three runs before landing his maiden, his only victory to date. He then graduated straight to stakes events where he took a while to acclimatize, not doing much at his forth and fifth career runs. His last two however have been impressive. Second and third, not more than a length from the winner with speed ratings of 80 and 84. He’s shown a distinct liking for the soft ground, which he won’t get here, but nothing lining up against him can boast better form.

# 3 – Chantili Nayee: The outsider of the field hails from the mubtaker yard, and runs around at the long quote because this filly ran last of five in her one and only run to date. That was on the turf, so she’s an untried quantity on the main track, but she will need at least a thirty point speed rating turnaround to factor in this. Sire Nayef (Gulch) has had three crops to date, and his only stakeswinner has been Jalang, from his first crop. Used only eleven times in the two years since, he’s sired just three winners beyond his debut year. Gold Albert (Mr. Prospector ), the damsire is lightly used, but unsuccessful as a black type damsire in the last five years while Dahar (Lyphard) a real life turf staying influence, has not brought that talent to the sim. It’s hard to see this girl making an impression in this event

# 4 – Who’s The Boss: Although just a maiden winner, and that at his fourth and most recent start, this youngster looks to have plenty in his favor. Unlike much of his opposition, he’s been lining up against big fields each start, and in his last three trips to the track, he’s finished ahead of thirty three horses, having finished second twice before landing that initial victory. His speed figure having been showing solid improvement, and many better class juvenile races have been won in less than the 1.24.6 which he recorded in West Virginia six weeks ago. Who’s the Boss is a wariuz2 bred and trained son of The Road Boss, a lightly used second year sire by Southern Halo. Used only three times in his debut season, all three progeny have tasted victory, while half of this years six offspring are already winners and two of them are lining up in this race. His under-rated damsire Groom Dancer (by Blushing Groom) boasts a stakes winner in that category in each of his last five crops, while Chieftain (by Bold Ruler) rounds out the pedigree. Who’s The Boss reappears here at the same trip he conquered last start, and is being kept safe in the market as befits a young colt showing impressive improvement at each start. Tactics will be interesting as he won’t want to get caught up in a speed duel with a couple of the others who like to lead, but if he gets a reasonable run, he’ll be there at the business end.

# 5 – New Silver: With plenty of experience, having been to the races seven times, and comparing speed ratings throughout her career, its fair to say that several other runners make more appeal. She tasted victory at her second run, her first on the dirt, and looked convincing doing so against a full field. Sadly, she hasn’t been able to improve on the 1.12.4 she ran that day, and while many of her opponents here have been progressing steadily, her performance level has tended to stagnate. redflag bred this filly using Wester Outlaw (Gone West) a first year sire currently rating 50% with four winners from eight. Campo Catino (Woodman) has only two progeny racing with him as damsire, and this is the only winner, while More Royal (Mt Livermore) on the third line, is another rarely used line. She’ll drop back early and should be able to take up a position on or near the rail, but whether she’ll have enough in the tank to surge past proven stakes performers remains to be seen.

# 6 – Get Outa Dodge: Still a maiden after three starts, this filly did show significant improvement at her third start, but would need an even bigger jump to look a serious contender here. Sire Dodge (Mr. Prospector) has sired two stakeswinners from 38 progeny in the last five years. Fast Play (Seattle Slew) is a genuine overachiever in the Damsire role, with better than 5% winners to runners in that category. National Assembly (Danzig) rounds out the pedigree which features 4×5 inbreeding to both Northern Dancer and Buckpasser. Her jockey will want to be close to the pace during the running, but it’s unlikely she’ll be thereabouts as they near the line. This is a great race for cheap horses to pick up some decent money, but I feel foolofdirt will be seeking something easier for Get Outa Dodge next time out.

# 7 – Flagit: This two year old colt is progressing steadily, and although the winner of just the maiden from his four starts to date, he ran a close enough third in a full allowance field at his third run, before a handy fourth of seven at stakes level four weeks ago. winhunter has given him the ideal sort of lead up to an event of this magnitude and he has a capable rider in M. Robertson. He’s one of several in danger of suffering in the early jostle for positions, but his steadily improving formline puts him in with a genuine chance. The Road Boss (Southern Halo) is looking to give his stud career a boost, with a pair of runners in this event. Damsire Avenue of Flags (Seattle Slew) is one of the sim’s true bargains, regularly providing black type performers in both the sire and damsire roles, while Saratoga Six (Alydar) rounds out an extremely well balanced inexpensive pedigree. From a personal perspective, this is perhaps my favorite combination here, and I’ll be watching the effort of Flagit with interest.

# 8 – The Midas Touch: This filly takes a giant step here, having raced without victory against claimers at each of her last two. Since winning her maiden on debut, she’s been disappointing in her ensuing seven starts, and although registering three thirds in that time, they all came in five horse fields. lgbost9b homebred this daughter of Midas Eyes, a popular first season son of Touch Gold who has produced one stakes winner and two stakes placed progeny from thirty seven runners to date in his debut season. Storm and a Half, a modestly performed son of Storm Cat, and Prospector’s Delite (Mr. Prospector) make up the rest of the pedigree. I see him racing handily a length or two off the pace, but can’t see him turning the tables on the better credentialed, higher achieving opponents.

# 9 – Wonnaby Great: wonnaby’s young colt appears well on the way to achieving the ambition suggested by his name, while quickly establishing himself as an overachiever in the bloodline brigade. His fourth season sire, Portrush, by Storm Cat, has to date just one black type winner, Blood Plum, a winner of three stakes races and almost $400,000 in prize money. This colt is a clone of that first season success. Manlove (Mr. Prospector) and Creator (Mill Reef) round out the pedigree. Wonnaby Great began his career three months ago with an impressive win over six furlongs, against a full field in Georgia. At his second run seven weeks ago in Vermont, he ran third of five at stakes level, beaten less than two lengths. With just the two races under his belt, and a stakes placing on the scorecard already, the future looks bright for this one. He has the services of a top rider in L. Ingersoll, and with only a couple of speed horses drawn inside, he should get across for a handy spot in the run. Definite chance.

# 10 – Jacobite Indian: A maiden from four runs, her exposed form is not up to the standard required here, but she does fit into the unknown quantity category on the grounds that this is her first attempt on the dirt. As her sire, redforgo1 chose the first year Giant’s Causeway son, Cause Ur Mine, who is hardly setting the sim alight, with just eight winners from twenty eight starters to date. Damsire Historic (A.P.Indy) is another without notable success while any depth in the pedigree appears to come in third line with Our Native (Exclusive Native). She did run a solid second in a quality maiden over this distance at her second start, but it’s difficult to make much of a case for her against this lineup. An out of form rider simply adds to her woes.

# 11 – Gold Cruise: Lightly raced, this youngster certainly has the score on the board, with a stakes win, and a stakes placing from just three trips to the track. A daughter of the unfashionable but capable Weekend Cruise, heavily inbred to both Seattle Slew and Northern Dancer, she’s flying the flag for her sire this season, being the only winner to date from five to the track. The remainder of the pedigree is Sea Salute (by Danzig, a son of Northern Dancer from a Seattle Slew mare) and Gold Legend (by Seattle Slew). Perhaps surprisingly the sire does not get used more often (17 runners in his last three crops), as his 2003 crop included the Graded placed stakeswinner Goat Farmer, still winning races at five. Breeder / trainer foxmax had no hesitation in advancing Gold Cruise to stakes level, following a solid maiden third placing on debut. Success came immediately in a seven horse field on the tough stage in Japan, before a slightly disappointing third of five at her most recent run in Athens, four weeks ago. All her starts have been over this seven furlong trip, so we know the conditions will suit. She’ll be superbly ridden by M.Grunhard, who’ll probably need to use a little fuel early, if he wants to lead. She’s an exciting filly and a strong chance this weekend.

# 12 – Rhapsodes: This young filly looks the real deal, and could well give her career a real boost with her performance this weekend. In four starts to date, she’s won two and finished on the podium in the other two, in quality events. Improving all the time, she returns to the distance and surface conditions of her most recent run, a victory in the handy time of 1.24.2. misskitten bred this one using Quaker Ridge as the sire. A very lightly used son of Forty Niner, Quaker Ridge has just fourteen offspring from his last five crops, with five year old Rock That Fussy the only previous stakeswinner. Capable but underrated Fly So Free (Time for a Change) has a couple of stakeswinners on his damsire page, and supercheap Victorious (Explodent) completes the bloodline. All three sires have outperformed their sim values, and this combination looks sure to have a bright future. Unfortunately she’s drawn poorly in the jockey raffle, but that should be countered by the fact that she shares the highest speed rating recorded by any of this weeks field.

# 13 – Follow The Plan: Beginning her career unimpressively, her original trainer sent her to the maiden claimers in search of that initial victory. lgbost2yoz saw something in the filly which was clearly not evident on the form page, and since the change of stable her speed ratings have jumped markedly. At her first start for the new barn, and with a change of riding tactics, she found the winner’s circle by leading all the way against a full field in a 35k maiden claimer over the trip she faces here. Although the 1.25.2 she ran that day should not be good enough to take this out, the win was authoritative and convincing. She cruised home that day with more than four lengths up her sleeve. Follow the Plan is the only progeny yet to race, of the first year sire Blueprint (Generous from a Shirley Heights mare) and strangely for the breed, she clearly does not like the green stuff. Damsire Great Prospector (Mr. Prospector) is also used very sparing, while Northern Baby (Northern Dancer) completes the breeding, adding a successful and higher profile third line to the page. She’s drawn from the bottom of the jockey pool, and needs to find many lengths to compete with the favorites, but if an outsider is to put in a good performance, she may be the one.

# 14 – Model Q: This young filly comes into this off victory in a 2k claimer, which would hardly inspire confidence in a full field containing several established stakes level runners. Her two wins and two seconds have all come against claimers, while her two runs in allowance company saw her soundly beaten. On the positive side, winning form is good form. Owner larsonist has raced her three times, and she’s yet to justify the 10k tag despite showing glimpses of promise. She was bred by her previous owner, using Dixie Dot Com (Dixie Brass), a regular sire of winners, but without a stakeswinner in his last five crops. Citidancer (Lomond) fits a similar description as a damsire and recently deceased Archway (Thatching) has performed far better in real life than he has in the sim. Another with an out of form rider, and it’s hard to see Model Q featuring in the finish.

Selections: – I think the morning line tells the story, but perhaps the gap between those in single and double figures could be greater. Put simply, the seven runners heading the betting can all mount a solid case, and if I had any one of them, I’d be looking towards this race with confidence. On the other hand, it’s hard to see the seven double figure runners making the improvement needed to win. Forced to make a selection, I’m tipping Flagit, largely because I love the breeding. (Sorry, winhunter – tipping is not my strong suit, so you may have just been hit with the kiss of death) Gold Cruise and Woke Up Screamin have proven themselves as stakes performers, so I’ll put them in for second and third, but I really won’t be surprised with any winning result, unless that winner pays more than $20.