Soft going for the Grade II The Ribot at Italy
The Breeders Cup is over, but there is still plenty of good racing going on all over the Sim. And in the Renaissance Capital, this Sunday they will be having a special card, highlighted by the Grade II The Ribot. Thirteen horses will be going at it at the mile distance, looking for the big piece of the $375,000 total purse. We expect an overcast day, with showers sprinkling over the turf course. Let’s take a closer look at the participants:
1 BRISTOL FRANKEL – GALILEO x DANEHILL x RAINBOW QUEST – He drew the rail post, which is just what the doctor ordered for him, being one of the speed balls in this race. Unfortunately for him, the race came up with lots of speedy horses that will make his job much tougher. His last race was a disappointment, but trainer dmvwr2 gave him a two month rest, looking for him to rebound to his summer form. A clear lead will enhance his chances, but at the moment I just don’t see it. Siding with others.
2 AMIGO DE GRAZE – SICOTICO (DOM) x DANCE IN THE DARK x WITH APPROVAL – Dominican’s only Clasico del Caribe champion Sicotico sires this roan colt that had been running all thru this year against allowance horses, and doing very nicely, winning three races in distances between seven and nine furlongs. However, his connections wanted to test the stakes competition waters, and so far the experiment has not paid off. His best race so far was in a boggy turf course, so maybe he can do better this Sunday, but he will need to prove he belongs in this group.
3 BACKGROUND CHECK – CAPE CROSS x NORTHERN AFLEET x BEAU GENIUS – His case is very similar to the horse we just talked about. The only difference I see is that he ran in stakes at the beginning of the year, and lately he has been competing against allowance level horses. He is taking a considerable step up in class, and will need for tings to fall into place for him to have a slight chance in here. Too many questions to be answered for my liking.
4 JOY OF SAINTHOOD – KITTEN’S JOY x SAINT BALLADO x IRISH RIVER – Whenever you see the name Kitten’s Joy in a grass race, you know he or she will need to be considered. And this horse is no exception. He won his first stakes race late in August, and climbed up the ladder to graded competition a month ago, falling short in the Grade III David Hasselhoff. Maybe he still a notch below the best in here, but he can keep improving and take this one, at 10/1 odds.
5 UNBRIDLED CRY – STREET CRY x PINE BLUFF x UNBRIDLED – So far, he has had the best year of his career in 2015, with four listed stakes wins to his credit. He is another one who prefers to be on the lead or forwardly placed, so the amount of quick horses signed in is something that does not favor him at all. Trainer hoganapez is clear with his plan for this race; he will look for the lead at all costs. He likes the off going and seems dangerous with a clear lead, although 7/1 is a low price for the risk to be taken.
6 CHANGING HISTORY – GALILEO x MR. PROSPECTOR x SECRETARIAT – Lately, this horse has been doing his best work sprinting, and now trainer stormboot decides to give him another shot at routing on the lawn. He has been close, but so far has not been able to win at the stakes level, and now finds himself facing a very accomplished field. He prefers to come from off the pace, so we should see him picking up the pieces after a speed duel, but his chances of winning seem limited.
7 STAY CLASSY – STAY GOLD (JPN) x OASIS DREAM (GB) x RAINBOW QUEST – He has the distinction of being the only Grade I winner of this bunch, but that was a long time ago, and my father always told me you can not rest on past glory. And judging by his last efforts, those glory days are long gone. This year, he has run in the graded stakes races, and in each one of them he has been soundly defeated. He will need his best race and then some to have a slight upset possibility. I’ll pass.
8 PYTHIUS – GIANT’S CAUSEWAY x KINGMAMBO x DANZIG – Royally bred and very talented horse who fell just short of winning in his most recent outing. Here we find another horse that loves to be part of the early flight, but he has shown he can also rate a little, and that is an advantage that others horses don’t have in here. He has the edge speed figure wise, starts from a great post and he will be my favorite to win this race, at very juicy 8/1 odds.
9 DISCRECIONAL – SHACKLEFORD x PULPIT x FOREST WILDCAT – This is my horse, and he is here just because of the soft going we are going to get. I know maybe he is a little bit over his head in this Grade II, but he loves the give in the ground, and I am hoping he improves on a head scratcher that he threw on his last race. He will get a nice pace setup, and I am confident on a good showing from him.
10 KING MATT – FORT WOOD x DANZIG x SECRETARIAT – Modestly bred four year old that so far has done much better in longer distances, being the nine furlongs his favorite. He likes to come from close to the pace, but maybe, seeing the speed that has lined up for this one, his jockey and trainer have the plan to take him further off the pace. Is an incognito how well he will do on the soft turf, and 7/1 is too low of a price to find out.
11 DYLAN’S SONG – DYLAN THOMAS (IRE) x UNBRIDLED’S SONG x AWESOME AGAIN – He has only one win in 2015, but he has done well in groups very similar to the one he is facing on Sunday. He is one that will come with a late run in the stretch, so he will need the right set up for that push to be effective. A little bit allergic to the wire, but can not discard totally, as he always makes a good showing.
12 CANYONJINSKY – PULPIT x NIJINSKY 2ND x ROBERTO – Very versatile horse that has done extremely well in both dirt and turf. If you ask me, I think he has done a lil better on the lawn. But he has he same problem as many others in here; he is a need the lead type. his best showings have come when he can have a clear lead, and its not guaranteed he will get that in here. He is the tepid 6/1 morning line co-favorite, but is too short of a price for me to take on him.
13 TETE NILS – INVINCIBLE SPIRIT (IRE) x SADLER’S WELLS x STORM BIRD – Not fortunate at all when posts were drawn, but no doubt he can be a factor at the end. He has had a pretty tough campaign, and in his last race, he won his first race a in at least eight months, just getting up to win in the Huge Tale Turf Mile, in this same track. He will need to step it up a notch, but if he sits a nice trip, can be a sleeper.
Picks:
8 PYTHIUS
11 DYLAN’S SONG