Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile Turf

Welcome to Breeders’ Bowl weekend all you Simulated racing fans!  You get the absolute privilege of reading my perspective on the Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile Turf Mile.  For free.  Aren’t you lucky?  The last one of these articles I did was so long ago that my current computer can’t open the file.  Seriously.  I believe it was sometime back in 2012.  Breeders’ Bowl weekend is one of my favorite times in the Sim each year.  Right up there with Equinics weekend.  Until I watch the races that is.  Then, more often than not, it is the worst weekend of the year.  Being a trainer of a BB runner is very similar, I would think, to being a Cubs fan.  Every year you look forward to it, believe that the impossible is possible, and seemingly do everything right.  And every year, no matter how good things look, no matter how many angles you have going for you, your hopes get positively crushed.   At the wire or at the half – It makes no difference.

At least the new viewer makes the process of watching a little more enjoyable.  As long as your horse makes any sort of movement you feel like there is still a chance until nearly the end of the race.  You still have hope.  The old viewer was a different animal.  There is nothing sadder than watching your horse actually go backwards after they hit the half in the old viewer, and then forcefully and angrily clicking off that program almost instantly.  Still, somehow, after that horror show, you then quickly get pumped up for your next BB runner.  ‘This one is live’ you think.  ‘It’ll be better for sure.’  You eagerly, against what you know to be true, watch the next race.  To the halfway point.  And then click.  Same song and dance.  And after you’re done watching a bunch of half-races you realize all of that work and planning and luck turned into a big fat zero in less five minutes.

All of a sudden your would-be champion is a rat that deserves to be bred over.  Or just retired.  I’ve had that nasty, silent conversation with more than a few of my simulated under-performers after they made me click off the old viewer right after the half.  ‘After that performance I am just retiring you.  No breeding.  After the crap you just pulled, you can just sit in my barns until Mike pulls the plug and think about how poor your showing was.  You are the The Green Monkey of my simulated operation.  To think I set my alarm to get up at 3AM to click and refresh for 58 minutes to breed you and then you treat me like this?  No stud for you.  Just thank your lucky stars Mike hasn’t invented a simulated Ferdinand option or that’d be the exact button I’d be pressing now.’  Good times.

Wow.  Writing is therapeutic.  Thanks for listening.  Anyway, back to this race.  Here are some interesting facts about the Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile Turf:

• It was first contested in 2000
• From 2000 to 2007 it was run at 8.5F, from 2008 forward it has been run at a mile
• Super Stables have two wins in this race – the only multiple winning trainer or group
• No BB Juvy Turf winner has ever gone on to win the 2000 Guineas
• Only 3 of the previous 15 winners (HOF member Mambo Wildcat, The Seven Seas, and Guinness Road) went on to win a graded race of any kind after they turned 3.  Mambo Wildcat was the exception as he won 6 Grade I races from ages 3 to 6.
• The fastest 8.5F race was 1:42.20 recorded by Mambo Wildcat in 2006
• The fastest 8F race was 1:35.19 recorded by Guinness Road in 2012

The data pretty much says unless your guy is a future member of the HOF, be sure to enjoy your win as it will more than likely be your horse’s career highlight.  Oh, and start preparing some farm space for him because you have a year before you can he-mare him.  That too.

So, let’s take a look at this year’s field:

PP1 – DECLARE LOYALTY – 10/1

Declaration of War x Nureyev x Gone West

Owner/Trainer – Snowchief Racing Stables
2YO Bay Colt
Lifetime High SF:  94
Lifetime High SF at 8F:  N/A
Notable Wins:

• GII – The Jimcrack 6F Turf
• GII – Miller Reef Stakes 6F Turf

What I like about Declare Loyalty – his bottom.  He has been trained along nicely this year.  He has gotten generally faster as the year has gone on and as the competition has gotten tougher.  Good signs.  Needs to run a career race to take this down, as most do, but might be primed to do just that.  Chance.

What I don’t like about Declare Loyalty – wear & tear.  Stretching here, but this will make it 5 graded races in a row for this guy.  Usually a 2YO no-no.  Also not sure about his ability to route.  He has closed nicely in all of his races, but his mare’s best runners have been sprinter types.

PP2 – TRICK ME ONCE – 16/1

Courageous Cat x Dynaformer x Phone Trick
Owner/Trainer – BigRick Racing Stables
2YO Bay Colt
Lifetime High SF:  94
Lifetime High SF at 8F:  N/A
Notable Wins:

• GII – The Rich Man 6F Turf

What I like about Trick Me Once – his home state.  Who doesn’t love NY?  He’s been brought along very professionally and should be poised to run a career best race if he likes the added distance.  Mom was a GI winner sprinting, but a few of her other offspring could get a mile.  Definitely in with a chance, and distance is the biggest question.  Solid.

What I don’t like about Trick Me Once – mile distance.  Like I said above, the distance is the question.  Is one of a few that seems to want to go right to the front.  Might not be quite fast enough to grab the lead, so another question mark is his ability to rate at a mile if he’s off the pace a length or two.

PP3 – SEATTLELEMONDROP – 7/1

Lemon Drop Kid x Seattle Slew x Nijinsky
Owner/Trainer – Stockswami Racing Stables
2YO Bay Colt
Lifetime High SF: 97
Lifetime High SF at 8F: 97
Notable Wins:

• G2 – Knick Knack Juvenile 8F Turf

What I like about Seattlelemondrop – I like his name.  I did many Lemon Drops while I lived in Seattle.  I love his first, and only, route race.  Produced a G2 win and lifetime high SF.  He had tested graded and not done as well sprinting, so his route might truly indicate a desired distance.  In with a real shot.

What I don’t like about Seattlelemondrop – again, not a lot to pick on about any of these nice looking juveniles.  Maybe his lack of a second route?  The G2 win could be one of those time and place wins and we’ll find out he really doesn’t like the distance.  I doubt that though.

PP4 – RED’S RAVEN – 13/1

Raven’s Pass x Redoute’s Choice x Storm Cat
Owner/Trainer – Jockeymax Racing Stables
2YO Bay Colt
Lifetime High SF:  89
Lifetime High at 8F:  N/A
Notable Wins:

• GII – The July Stakes 6F Turf

What I like about Red’s Raven – his connections.  Jockeymax has been here before.  His previous winner of this race, Mambo Wildcat, went on to become a member of the HOF.  Although he hasn’t been longer than 6F, Red’s Raven can most likely handle the distance.  His mom was a GI winner at 8.5F as a 2YO and a few of his siblings (both by Raven’s Pass also) are at least route Stakes winners.  His speed figures are a bit light, but I think Red’s Raven is primed to post a huge effort.  Place your bets.

What I don’t like about Red’s Raven – timing.  Stretching a bit, but based on his most recent siblings this race may be too short for Red’s Raven.  He could still be good enough to take this down, but 9-10F might be a better fit.  Whatever the outcome, look for this guy on the Arlington Million undercard next summer.

PP5 – RIPPING STAR – 9/1

Sea The Stars x Redoute’s Choice x Galileo
Owner/Trainer – Punter34 Racing Stables
2YO Bay Colt
Lifetime High SF:  95
Lifetime High SF at 8F:  N/A
Notable Wins:

• GII – The Vintage 7F Turf

What I like about Ripping Star – his versatility.  He’s won on the lead.  He’s won off the pack.  He looked very sharp in The Golden Shoe last time out, closing for a nice second at a distance probably too short for him.  His he-mare was a monster, especially at 7F, but only tried routing twice in his life.  This guy has a great shot to contend and is fast enough to take the whole thing.  Nice!

What I don’t like about Ripping Star – not much.  Tough to compare too closely to his he-mare, as I have had horses win at 14F out of he-mares that couldn’t get 7F.  If he goes to the front, and he’s fast enough to get the lead, I’m not sure he’ll have the gas to hold off the late chargers.

PP6 – SANSFOY – 13/1

Soldier Hollow x Oasis Dream x Fappiano
Owner/Trainer – Tees Racing Stable
2YO Bay Colt
Lifetime High SF:  95
Lifetime High SF at 8F:  95
Notable Wins:

• Azerley Turf Juvenile 5f Turf

What I like about Sansfoy – his running style.  Especially in the new viewer, there is nothing better than watching a horse come from 10+ lengths back.  Granted, you have time to shave and shower once they start moving, but it’s legit fun.  Sansfoy has closed like a train in back to back GII races at 8F.  He has yet to get his picture taken at 8F, but his running style, and potential pace scenario, set him up well to be charging towards the wire in contention when this race gets settled.  Contender.

What I don’t like about Sansfoy – the distance.  In addition to Sansfoy, neither his mare nor any of his siblings has ever won a route race.  Tough stat to overcome.  He’s fast enough to do it, but I have had a lot of horses that put up huge numbers when placing but never could cross the wire first.

PP7 – CHI TOWN SAUSAGE – 10/1

Lonhro x Deputy Minister x Seeking The Gold
Owner/Trainer – Yours Truly
2YO Bay Colt
Lifetime High SF:  97
Lifetime High SF at 8F:  97
Notable Wins:

• GIII – Looking Forward Stakes 8F Turf

What I like about Chi Town Sausage – his name.  Obviously.  Everyone loves sausage, right?  Even if it does cause cancer, how can you not get excited about meat stuffed into intestine?  I couldn’t fit Sausage King of Chicago as his name, so this had to do.  No actual shot in the race.

What I don’t like about Chi Town Sausage – his owner.  He’s a tool.  His nickname must be Stanley.  Good luck with that.

PP8 – HOUDINI LOVE – 9/1

Dubawi x Galileo x Blushing Groom
Owner/Trainer – Silversun Racing Stables
2YO Bay Colt
Lifetime High SF:  95
Lifetime High SF at 8F:  95
Notable Wins:

• GIII – Golden HandGrenade 7f Turf

What I like about Houdini Love – his first route.  Although he didn’t hold on, Houdini Love ran a very nice race in his first attempt at 8F last time out in the GII The Royal Dodge.  His mare was a graded winner at a mile on the turf, and I think this guy has the ability to follow in her footsteps.  Did you know Houdini’s brother went by the name Dash?  Who doesn’t love a good dash?  I know I do.  A dash of salt.  A dash of steak.  A dash to the finish.  Very dashing.

What I don’t like about Houdini Love – another one without much to dislike.  His running style might be problematic as this field may end up with about seven going right to the front at the break.  He doesn’t have a route win.  Yet.  Everything, from his pedigree to his mare and siblings screams distance so not a real scare.

PP9 – JUST BEFORE DAWN – 13/1

Dawn Approach x Mr. Prospector x Nijinsky
Owner/Trainer – The Sometimes almost Evil Empire.
2YO Bay Colt
Lifetime High SF:  97
Lifetime High at 8F:  97
Notable Wins:

• G2 – The Royal Dodge 8F Turf

What I like about Just Before Dawn – He has two wins at 8F.  Love the fact that he stepped up as he tested graded and ran a career best speed figure in doing so.  Very live for this race.

What I don’t like about Just Before Dawn – his owner is a huge putz.  That is his biggest drawback.  If anyone can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory it is this guy.

PP10 – REDOUTE’S DAWN – 6/1*

Dawn Approach x Redoute’s Choice x Fappiano
Owner/Trainer – Stockswami Racing Stables
2YO Bay Colt
Lifetime High SF: 102
Lifetime High SF at 8F: 102
Notable Wins:

• G2 – The Bedford Stakes 8F Turf

What I like about Redoute’s Dawn – Lots.  Eye-popping prep at the mile distance was very salty.  2-for-2 at 8F in his short career.  Love the fact that the two route wins have been career high SF’s, and that when he tested graded company he really thrived.  Can run near the lead or come from 10+ back – versatile.  Look out!

What I don’t like about Redoute’s Dawn – not a lot to choose from.  I think the only scenario I can see where this guy doesn’t seriously contend to get his picture taken is a race that has zero pace and he finds himself on the lead.  And that’s a stretch worry at best.

PP11 – BRON Y AUR – 13/1

Sepoy x Awesome Again x Dynaformer
Owner/Trainer – Super Racing Stables
2YO Bay Colt
Lifetime High SF:  93
Lifetime High SF at 8F:  90
Notable Wins:

• GIII – The Wooden Reserve 8.5F Turf

What I like about Bron Y Aur – his owner group.  Super stables have been simply that in this race – Super.  They own two previous wins, in 2008 and 2010.  Both at a mile.  And you have to love any horse with a connection to Led Zeppelin.  Bron Y Aur is two for two routing, and stepped up nicely when facing graded company for the first time last time out winning The Wooden Reserve.  Lots to like.

What I don’t like about Bron Y Aur – his owner group.  They used to be the Evil Empire’s Evil Empire.  Not anymore.  Seeing them now is like when you see a cat playing with a dead mouse.  It’d be much more sporting if the mouse was still alive.

PP12 – ORPHEUS CADET – 6/1*

Redoute’s Choice x Forty Niner x Seattle Slew
Owner/Trainer – Cadet Racing Stables
2YO Bay Colt
Lifetime High SF:  94
Lifetime High at 8F:  N/A
Notable Wins:

• GI – The Golden Shoe 6F Turf

What I like about Orpheus Cadet – his mare.  She’s a HOF member based on her offspring.  As classy as you can get in this game.  Three other GI winners out of this mare won those GI’s routing, so distance not as big a question mark as you may think.  Undefeated.  The Pick.  Bet your simulated Cadet-house.

What I don’t like about Orpheus Cadet – where do I begin?  Cadet is a huge Larry Fishburne fan.  Huge.  But he also has a huge fear of the letter M.  It’s just sad.  All that therapy money wasted.  Just wasted.  Donny let me know about Cadet’s ultimate plan to win the BB Juvy Turf – Wood Memorial – Irish St. Legend triple with Orpheus Cadet.  It just shows how Sim-crazy Cadet has become.  It’s no secret Robby – we can all see it.  Plus, the fact that Cadet basically stole this share of Redoute’s Choice off of Matty in an all-too-typical chat room wager is just sad.  Betting on how many times (14) Given can offend the room in 90 seconds is borderline cheating.  Karma Cadet.

PP13 – LEAR AND STARE – 16/1

Mr. Sydney x Lear Fan x Vigors
Owner/Trainer – Selurnivek Racing Stables
2YO Bay Colt
Lifetime High SF:  93
Lifetime High SF at 8F:  74
Notable Wins:

• GI – The More Nay 6F Turf
• GII – The Norfellow Stakes 5F Turf

What I like about Lear and Stare – his pedigree.  I love when folks get a good runner out of modestly bred pedigree.  His bottom.  You can’t fault a GI winner even when stretching out and in good form.  His prep.  Could prove to be a great use of the Hot race option if he jumps up and takes this race down.  Wildcard alert.

What I don’t like about Lear and Stare – outside of the Hot race, not sure about his ability to route.  That race was a public workout at best, with three of the five runners still maidens today.  That’s about it.

PP14 – BLUE LAGO EM – 9/1

Acclamation x Encosta De Lago x A.P. Indy
Owner/Trainer – Cothill Racing Stables
2YO Bay Colt
Lifetime High SF:  91
Lifetime High SF at 8F:  N/A
Notable Wins:

• GI – The Firebird 6F Turf
• GIII – The Railaway 6F Turf

What I like about Blue Lago Em – his family.  His mare, NH Lake Bed, has produced 4 foals all of whom are SW at a minimum.  Three of the four are Graded winners, with two being GI winners.  Two of the four won route stakes, so distance isn’t necessarily an issue.  Very live.

What I don’t like about Blue Lago Em – his lack of route attempts.  Tough to fault anyone for not routing when you’re winning/placing in GI company sprinting, but the lack of attempts at 8F leaves a very large question mark going into this race.

So, there’s the field.  This year’s Breeders’ Bowl Juvy Turf is a tough race to handicap.  The race could play out a variety of ways.  I can see a speed duel that yields one of the front runners strong enough to hold off the closers, and I can see a slower pace with a ton of horses making moves at the half and a blanket finish.  However it plays out, best of luck to each owner in the race.  Except Robby.  Thanks for reading.  I don’t know how you writers do this each week.  Mike should quit being so stingy and pay you more.