Talented Field For The GI Grand Carlos
Talented Field For The G1 Grand Carlos
Argentina (ARG) | Saturday, October 24, 2015 | 3:00 PM EST
Grade I | $1,500,000 | 3yo+ | 12 Furlongs | Firm Turf
1 EASTERN APPROACH enters in the 9-5 favourite spot. After a crushing win in the Autumn Stakes GIII (with a 116), a third in the King Geoff GI, a win in the Longstickgoboom GII, and third in the Delta Republic GII, he looks like a very good candidate for the win. The four year old colt by NEW APPROACH has those four accomplishments to his name in the graded stakes department, and he looks for his first GI win here. While his running has been spectacular lately, the other stakes winners won’t let him get off easy. 9-5 is about what I’d have given him.
| 2 | AVEC LE VENT, meaning ‘with the wind’, has indeed run with the wind as of late. Most noteworthy is his last performance, showing drastic improvement in the How Do You Spell That STK, going from a career mark figure of 101 to a whopping 113. That’s his only notable win to date, while the three year old did run fourth in the Adelaide Derby GI just a few months ago. Though it’s tougher company than ever, I can see the son of MANDURO getting a major cheque here.
3 NOCHEINMAL loves opening up a big lead and attempting to hang on. The move has been successful in every listed stakes start to date, but literally none of his graded stakes tries. While he has been G-placed quite a few times, but can never hang on to win. With little early speed however, it could be the colt’s time to shine. He’s 3-1 off a win in a listed stakes. The sire is DALAKHANI.
4 WILLIAM’S ROAD is a peculiar 8-1 off a quartet of good GI starts, including a one and a half length win in the World Weekly News 2000 GI. He hasn’t hit the board in his past two, running fourth both times, both live performances however, and I really think he can get the job done here, especially if he can bump that SP up a few points from his most recent 101. By GIANT’S CAUSEWAY and out of GI winning he-mare WILLIAM’S STREET, I like the value I’m getting on this sharp runner. A good bet.
5 CONTRATIEMPO is a grade one winner, but you wouldn’t be able to tell by his past performances. His only GI win was in July of 2013 where he took the French Grand Prix. Recently he’s been racing at the allowance level, where he’s won three of his past seven, all at that level. It’s also worth noting that he was third in the 2013 BB Turf. However, it looks like he may be past his peak and hasn’t done anything noteworthy in 2015, so I’m going to have to lay off the experienced five year old son of SEA THE STARS. 8-1 is an okay price but isn’t a good bet in the race.
6 UNCOMMONLY is a grade two winner from 2014 and was third in two GIs in succession. He didn’t score his first win in 2015 until two starts back in a NW1s allowance two starts back, among three graded stakes appearances and two stakes starts- including his last. This is another who seems to be not as good as his past self, and so I can’t play him at this GI level. By MONTJEU, the five year old is 6-1.
7 STAYING ON TRACK has, in his past four races, attempted all four stakes attempts of his career including one GIII. It looks however, that his better races have been on the dirt, with five wins on eleven starts as opposed to two wins on eleven starts on the turf. On his last three, it’s been two stakes wins (both on dust) and one GIII third. I believe he can be a strong runner, but I actually prefer him on the dirt. 6-1 on the five year old by PULPIT.
8 ALL HAIL THE KING had been an allowance runner for all fourteen of the four year old’s career until his last start in the Roidazoid Turf Route STK, where he only ran a fifth by four. On just three career wins and only one stakes attempt which was off the board, I strongly discourage a bet on the 10-1 shot by RIP VAN WINKLE. Upset is unlikely.
MY SELECTIONS
1- 4 WILLIAM’S ROAD
2- 1 EASTERN APPROACH
3- 3 NOCHEINMAL
Longshot Play- | 2 | AVEC LE VENT