Breeder’s Bowl Preview Part III

Part three of the Breeder’s Bowl Preview features the Classic, the Turf and the Distaff. The older mares really appear to have a strangle hold on the top spots in the Distaff, while the Classic and the Turf have a good mix of older and younger runners that should prove to be quite entertaining.

Race: Breeders Bowl Classic – Grade I – $4,000,000
Track: Kentucky
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old and up
Distance: A mile and a quarter on the Dirt

This year’s older handicap runners may be one of the best the sim has scene in some years. Add to that a pretty solid group of three year olds and there will be some very good and deserving runners that will not make this field.  

Solar Song is the number one ranked horse in this division. He started the year with wins at the Equinics and the Sand Castle Classic. He has two more grade I wins this year including the CA Classic. It is a bit concerning his last was a drop back into a listed stakes and he could only manage a third place finish. Clearly he was there just to keep the rust off but his deep closing style may be his down fall.

Sensatious is on a roll. Four wins in a row coming into the race including a very nice win last week in the grade I Jockey Guild Gold Cup. He has made eight trips to the winner’s circle this year but has twice finished behind Solar Song. Should be in excellent stalking position and looks capable of turning the tables.

Ermington Pegasus is not the top ranked three year old, but the runner up in the Bluegrass Derby looks like the best of the three year olds coming into the race. He has started to improve in the later part of the year and found a nice level of consistency not many three year old have right now.

Wonderboy Cougar (IRE) has yet to get a win this year however he has been right there running big speed figures in many of the big races this year. He may have lost a step and ultimately I think he does best stalking however this year he has seemed a bit headstrong going to the lead. There should be pace for him to chase.

Divine Inspiration is a three year old that has really seemed to blossom over the summer and got better as he stretched out. His last time out he not only proved he could settle off the pace and close but he ran a big 110-speed figure. That type of stalk and pounce style is very dangerous. His pedigree does not exactly scream a mile and a quarter but his best race came at the distance.

Race: Breeders Bowl Turf – Grade I – $2,000,000
Track: Kentucky
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old and up
Distance: A mile and one half on the Turf

One of the more competitive divisions and will very likely be dominated by the older horses. The last two winners of this race will very likely line up for a rematch and that is always a juicy prospect.

Horseshoe Bay continued his winning ways this year. The first four races of the year where not so kind but he still managed two grade I wins during that time. He did not like the soft turf at the Equinics and ran into a horse that ran out of his mind at the Sand Castle Golden Turf. After that he has five races with four wins and a second. His only defeat over the summer came at the hands of Sunnybank Memorial. He could be on track for back to back wins in this race.

Sunnybank Memorial might be getting a little long in the tooth but he has been very good this year. He has added four more grade I wins to his resume this year. He found some form over the summer that three wins in four starts. That form is as good as he has been over his career. His last race though was a stinker and that has happened twice now this year. He bounced back from his other bad race and will very likely do the same this time around.

Rain God has quietly kept pace with the top two runners the last couple of years. In fact he has bested Sunnybank Memorial most of the time he has faced him. Rain God has had another consistent year that has only scene him off the board once on eleven races. He runs strong speed figures still, and has pace which the top two do not.

Lex Luthor is this year’s Derby de English winner. He is a winner of eight of twelve on turf so far in his young career and has won two grade I races this year. He is a front runner and in his first start against older horses last time out he ran a solid second behind Horseshoe Bay. Still he may not be the best three year old in the race.

Cortez (IRE) is a five time grade I winner this year. He won impressively last time out against older rivals defeating Sunnybank Memorial. He won the Sydney Derby, and Adelaide Derby in the spring time before running behind Lex Luthor. He is a stalker type that will probably be mid pack in the early stages.

I will mention a sixth runner in this division because it is deep. Rapid Grey has beaten or finished ahead many of the runners I have already mentioned. He can be a bit up and down performance wise with his ups as good as any runner. If he is on his game he will be a player.

Race : Breeders Bowl Distaff – Grade I – $2,000,000
Track : Kentucky
Restrictions : Fillies and mares, 3 years old and up
Distance : A mile and one eighth on the Dirt

The older fillies look much the best in this race. There will be a ton of speed in this race and that actually could play into the hands of the top three year old.

Wild Cat Tales is having a great season. She has been super consistent but in her last four races she has found a new level. She has won four in a row on fast, good and sloppy tracks. All those wins are graded wins her last two grade I events. She  will be a contender no matter what the surface condition is and middle of the pack stalking style sets up great with all the speed she will be facing.

K’s Joan Bach is another lady riding quite a hot streak into the big event. She has six wins this year and has only tried grade I races in her last two where she won and finished second. She is has won five of her last six races and is running some big time speed figures. K is more of a deep closer who will likely be near the back of the pack but so far she has shown the ability to close the ground.

Otto History is the number two ranked older filly and she has been very good this year. Three grade I wins and throw in a couple of grade II wins to boot. Her problem might just be the distance. Her best races have been at a mile and though she won a grade I at this distance earlier this year her last two tries she has been beaten. Her last race was at this distance and she was pressed a bit early fading to sixth at the finish behind K’s Joan Bach. She is a speed horse and of she shakes lose could make them pay but pressured how will she hold up?

Corzaffair (IRE) is the number one ranked older mare. No grade I wins this year but she has a couple of seconds at that level as well as three other wins. She is more of a classic distance runner than the others having not raced shorter than a mile and an eighth this year. She has got very good speed but could find her self stalking with some of the speed that is likely to show up in this race. If she steps away on the lead look out.

Armed With Money looks the most capable of the three year olds to handle the older ladies. That does not mean one of the other three year olds will not mature at the right time. She started the year odd pretty hot with three straight wins and capped her spring off with a win at the Bluegrass Oaks. Over the summer she stretched out and had some not so good races. She has cut back to her best distances in her last two and has two resounding victories with nice speed figures. She is a definite player.