You Can Go On Without Me Now, I’ll Just Wait Here And Gowader

The Grade II, $250,000 Gowader Stakes in Idaho this weekend has some unexpected meaning for me.  Usually, when I go after writing up a race for the BTB, I do it in advance of the field being drawn for it, so I don’t usually know who’s been entered into the field until the entries are posted.  This week, I found out after calling it out that I have a horse I’m very familiar with running in the race.

I’ll get to the details of my association with Carol Of The Bells later, except to say that…I bred her.  I did it for a GSR holiday present, and she’s blossomed over the last 11 months.  Now, she’s one of a full field of fourteen three-year-old fillies looking for a graded win to place on their résumés before they turn four on January 1.  I’m going to remain impartial, but I need to note out front that I only have one graded win under my belt from earlier this spring, and that was with a claimer I picked up over a year ago.  If Carol Of The Bells wins, I’ll be in the rather unusual and somewhat ironic place of having my first homebred graded winner, but only as a breeder, with a filly I’ve never trained.  It’s weird, y’know?

She’s but one of a talented bunch of fillies, and she doesn’t have as high a profile as the five Top 25 miler fillies in the field, such as Grade II winner Five Points, Grade I winner Wondergirl Elf, or presumptive favorite Kepler Gnaget, who was Grade I-placed last out.  But I do have a rooting interest here, anyway.  It won’t affect the preview, but it wouldn’t kill me to say that if she wins, I’ll be the happiest one about it.

Here’s the field for the Gowader Mile.

Five Points [Point Given-Pushing Forty, by Forty Niner, trained by lenny1] draws both the rail and the circuit’s top jockey for the much-maligned, still-hated lenny1.  She’s a two-time Grade II winner in 2006, with earnings nearing the half-million dollar mark.  At her best, she’s a solid closing threat, like she was when she captured the Wooly Mammoth Oaks three back with a career-high speed figure of 107.  When she’s off, the results range from middling to disappointing.  Her pedigree suggests distance is more natural to her instead of the mile, but the result when she tried nine furlongs —the Bluegrass Oaks, specifically—was rather blah (a fourteenth in a twenty-filly field).  The mile’s been good to her, though, with a win early this year in the Grade II Los Vinegrette Stakes and a recent game third versus older fillies in the East Coast Mile last out will attest.  She won’t sit far off the pace here, and there’s enough early speed to make sure they’re not being too leisurely about it.  If she skims the rail like she did in the Woolly Mammoth, this could be a very strong race for her; a likely contender.

Guesss [Full Mandate x Prince Tenderfoot, trained by albarace1] proves with her pedigree that you don’t need to spend $25 to breed a horse that can contend against stakes competition.  (Bargain breeders, represent!)  She’s a two-time stakes winner, plus the winner of the Bargain Oaks earlier this year, so she has some experience.  But she’s been campaigned rather hard this year: this is her fifteenth 2006 start, and there’s still two months left.  The activity seems to be taking its toll on her, as her last few starts have been pretty lackluster.  She was beaten almost thirty lengths going a mile and five-sixteenths last time, and couldn’t muster up her usual deep-closing kick two back at this distance.  She might either need a longer rest or a change of scenery of some kind—a brief return to the turf for a pep talk, or an off track, which she broke her maiden on—to get her back up and running hard again.  Her speed figures haven’t gotten out of the mid-90s yet, and her previous tries versus graded foes don’t inspire a lot of confidence; maybe the four weeks of rest alongside the shortening-up in distance will give her a spark.  She ideally will be charging late, but she might need a gale-force tail wind in the stretch among some very imposing competition.

Change My Mind [Awesome Again x Damascus, trained by sdmforlife] is impeccably bred and lightly raced, and that can lead to danger.  In seven starts, she’s only won twice, but was stakes-placed with a career-high speed figure of 101 versus older in her last effort.  That effort was five weeks ago, and so this filly is quite fresh for this mile test.  Her one attempt to rise in class to graded foes found her tenth and without her usual late dash, her only start where she finished off the board.  There’s more than enough pace expected in here to keep things honest for the closers, and no doubt she’s both fit and still developing very nicely.  But in start #7, is that going to be enough?  She’ll glean a lot from that last start against older fillies, and ran very well, but she’ll need to sustain her growth while continuing to improve versus some of the better milers of her generation here; a live longshot.

Big Time Star [Aldebaran-Chicago F(IRE), by Theatrical(IRE), trained by canismajor]: stardom or hubris?  It all comes down to the name.  This filly has seen a bit of both qualities in her 20 starts.  She did not take to the off track last out at all, which sent her speed figures out of the mid-100s and back into the 80s.  This will mark her first stakes try against fillies her own age since foundering on the grass in March, and she should hold some sway as to how fast they go early on.  She’s a capable one when pressing the leaders, but has had a tendency at 3 to give way late in the long sprints and miles she’s attempted.  Her recent stint in allowance company has proven more effective, particularly when it’s come to improving her numbers.  Her last two starts before the off-track mishap gave her career-high figures of 104 and 105, respectively, which should keep her competitive among these.  If she can rate even further from the lead, her chances of hanging tight into the lane go up, but on recent form she’s not shown enough staying power when it counts.  Nevertheless, she’ll stick close to the front end for as long as she dares.

Jokes On Bbor(IRE) [The Deputy(IRE) x Joker, trained by killerz] isn’t quite the journeyman filly as some of the others here are, but through 18 starts she’s shown her own kind of workaholic nature.  She’s played at a higher level, with fourteen stakes races in her past performances, but with only one win to show for all that experience.  This will mark her first attempt at going a route after 18 straight sprints, but really, it shouldn’t hurt her, as all parts of her pedigree have wins at middle distances.  (In fact, her pedigree has a hint of Northern Dancer in it, and so turf, which has yet to be tried, could be worth a shot.)  She likes the lead, and should likely get it, but holding it might be a different matter entirely.  Her highest speed figure, and her last win, came three back in a six-furlong allowance in which she wired a field a condition higher than what she was eligible for, but her attempts to keep things going since then have been lacking in stamina, giving way in each of two starts, the last versus Grade I sprinters.  She’s got speed, but she’s liable to have company at the front, too; how fast they go and how much pressure will determine how much luck she’ll have routing the first time out.

The Westies [Seeking The Gold-West The Escort, by Deputy Minister, trained by super28] is a late-blossoming type from the super syndicate who started off strong at 2, settled down at 3 but has finally come around late in her sophomore campaign.  She’s a versatile runner, with equal success coming from off the pace as on the lead.  But it took her turning back from a failed nine-furlong effort to break the magical 100-mark in her speed figures, earning a 104 in her first stakes win of the year last out in British Columbia.  That nine-furlong effort two back really wasn’t all that bad, as she got loose on an easy lead, opened up a 5+-length lead, but faded quickly in the stretch late.  It would seem she’s finally coming into her own as a distaff miler.  Her win last out was a quantum leap forward, as she sat in mid-pack for the first time in a long time, rated and closed with a flying finish in the stretch.  A similar effort could be just the ticket onto the “A” list of three-year-old fillies, but her numbers do need to step up a notch, as some of her closest competitors have run consistently better speed figures more recently.

Kepler Gnaget (try saying that three times fast) [Rahy-Sea Project II, by Nureyev, trained by marianus] is the sole millionaires in the bunch, having just crossed the threshold with a second last out in the Grade I Remember Cupid.  Her career has been more subdued than her earnings indicate, with four consecutive seconds and three listed stakes wins on the year, but when she exhibited flash, she outshone Vega$; just go back to her longshot 18-1 upset in the Equinics for proof of that.  Her consistency is strong since that win, as without overextending herself in the deep end of graded races, she’s been rolling in listed stakes action versus other sophomore filly sprinters.  Three wins, five seconds, three thirds over fourteen starts since the Equinics, most of the time hanging out on or near the front end…it may be more Branson than Vega$, but it’s a solid run on the year, and now she’s back to the mile distance that she won twice at as a juvenile.  Expect to see her on the lead, but she will certainly have company, and this might be where the lack of graded experience since the Equinics comes back into play.  She’s capable of making a late run, like she attempted in the Remember Cupid last time, but she’s had solid experience playing with the leaders up front.  Her speed figures are pretty strong, with three triple-digit races this year, and they do play well versus these, but with this being her first route since January 21, as well as start #16 on the year to date, fatigue is likely going to factor into her chances here.

Wondergirl Elf [Danzig Connection-Kickin Up A Storm, by Storm Cat, trained by zeco1] is a Top 20 miler who’s begun to wind down earlier than predicted this year.  Since her last win, a victory in the Grade I lool Oaks, she’s been a very listless performer in three straight graded routes against other three-year-old fillies.  Compared to a few other entrants, with just seven starts this year, she’s been downright invisible…invisible, and slippery when wet besides.  She likes a wet track, which is what helped her pull off the lool Oaks at 13-1 and earned her a couple of placing besides, but the forecast here is for cool, dry and fast conditions.  She’s been struggling routing against graded foes this year, and is still eligible for a NW3x allowance.  Certainly she’s capable of hanging with the tops in her crop, but with only a single 100 in her last win and the fact that she’s had three straight uninspiring efforts since then, it makes it tough to make a case for sudden improvement in this spot.  She likes to come from off the pace, though she’s pretty comfortable with stalking the pace as needed; there is a lot of that going around here, though, and a late run might hold her best hopes.

Carol Of The Bells [Hennessy x Private Account, trained by deyoto3] is my homebred filly, a Saturday breeding done in advance of a sort of “grab bag” of homebreds for GSR.  The story is you breed a horse like one you yourself would like as a gift, you put it in a “grab bag” scenario, and you get a homebred for Christmas.  It was a fun GSR holiday special, something for the holidays that would be a pretty cool idea for the Sim.  I bred this filly on a Saturday afternoon, which given the pedigree was a good surprise, and a fellow GSR trainer landed her in the gift exchange.  Unfortunately, the filly was claimed by her current trainer in her debut, so the success wasn’t limited to one of my GSR brethren, but for deyoto3 she has bloomed into a rose over the summer.  She broke her maiden versus colts in start #2, and had won every other start since the claim to clear most of her allowance conditions with style.  She’s had some initial troubles since her last win, as she stepped up in class to graded-level company and wound up second in the Ontario BB Oaks two back and third in the Cotton last out, but her speed figures broke 100 in both efforts for the first time, and through 10 starts, she’s remained a pretty stalwart competitor, without having broken through at this higher level.  She prefers to come from off the pace, sitting mid-pack and waiting to make her move late.  The mile seems to suit her a little better than the extra half-furlong of her last two starts, and with two placements in graded races, she has shown she’s one of the rising stars in the division.  She has a competent jock and a favorable running style, but the question mark hanging over her is one of intangibles, namely how fast they take her out early.  She is due to break through, however, and I’m not just saying that because I’m the one that bred her.  Really.  Honest Injun.

Part Exchange [Dixieland Band x Unbridled, trained by foxon5] came alive in the spring at the middle distances, with a trio of stakes wins, including the Grade III Timber back in May.  She likes coming from off the pace as well, and there should be a solid pace to follow here.  It should be said, however, that she’s been winless since the Timber, and while much of that is owed to racing continuously versus the likes of Dixieland Deputy, Armed With Money, Casa Bonita and Indy’s Giant through the summer and into the fall, turning back to a flat mile couldn’t hurt.  Her speed figures are competitive among these fillies, but recent form is going to have to get better, even if there isn’t a Top 10 horse to tangle with here.  She won’t be at the rear of the pack, but will need a solid stretch kick chasing a reasonable pace this time around.

Espresso D’Italia [Medaglia D’Oro-Arequipa, by Miswaki, trained by lasthope1] has picked up almost $600,000 in 18 starts, but is in need of a pick-me-up on her recent form.  She was a Grade II winner in the Mistaken Soda Identity at 2, but is winless since that 12-1 win last November.  She’s had her chances as a very deep closing threat this year, which is what elevated her earnings so high.  With a second in her Equinics race (not the same one Kepler Gnaget won), a third in the lool Oaks, and a recent third in the Grade III Cheap And Easy, all from a couple of miles beneath the Earth’s surface (or so it would appear, being so far out of it in each), she’s had a lot of opportunities to get off the schneid in 2006 and go back to the winner’s circle.  Maybe the obstacle isn’t in her form, but her choice of tactics: there has never been a start in her career which featured her in a role much closer to the leaders in the early calls, and with a solid and probably not unreasonable pace likely here, such a deep threat, from ten lengths off the lead or greater, might not have as solid a footing.  After all, it’s just a mile, not 10 furlongs or greater.  Regardless, she’ll be bringing up the rear early on, and will attempt another deep closing dash late.  Her speed figures fall on the low end of competitive here, with just one triple-digit number coming in the Cheap And Easy two back.  More ground or a change in her approach could be to her benefit, but here, barring a major reversal of fortune, she might come on late for a minor share.

Skippy [Afleet-Sally Roo, by Buckaroo, trained by scout4] is another stretch-running type, but here, she’s got some better form and doesn’t quite drop so far behind the pace.  She was on the move late for sixth in the Remember Cupid last out, and was a surprisingly strong late-closing second in the Grade II Fast Feline before that.  It was the Grade I Exam where she broke through in this campaign, taking advantage of a wet track to pass with flying colors late.  Her last three starts earned figures higher than 100, and she might conceivably make it four with a strong late dash down the lane here.  She’ll be next-to-last, more than likely, and should make a late charge here.  More importantly, middle-distance routes seem to agree with her, between the Exam and the Fast Feline.  She has a win and a near-miss second in three tries at a mile, and that win came in last year’s GSR Diamond event in California.  With a continuation of her development late in the year, she’s a major player here, and the added ground from the sprint last out should help her.

Empire Story [Empire Maker-My Fortune, by Tale Of The Cat, trained by hihosilver] is light on racing experience with nine starts, and earnings, with just over $20K lifetime in the bank.  Her placement here is both curious and ambitious, as she’s making her stakes debut in this Grade II race.  There’s no doubt she qualifies, as she’s hit the board in all but one start, including five thirds, and as races for just three-year-olds this time of year get pretty scarce, it’s not a surprise her connections opted for one of the few stakes efforts restricted to three-year-olds for a chance to run with the best.  Performance-wise, it’s not a stretch to think that stakes company might be stretching credibility for this filly.  She’s yet to crack a speed figure over 100, and even though she is consistent enough to have picked up a check in each of nine starts, her inability to close the deal in allowance company works against her in a field with effective speed early and solid closing kicks late.  She did hit a speed figure of 97 last out, but it appeared to have been achieved despite hitting the wall somewhere around the quarter pole.  Her pedigree suggests a mile is well within her scope, but her lack of successful experience at a higher level is going to make it hard for her to take hold of a graded field of some of the top milers in the division.  There’s plenty of time, and plenty of starts, ahead of her to develop into a contender at this level, but her presence might be felt on the front end of things, as she could supply a little extra pressure on the leaders here.

Nocatofmine [War Chant-Jef And His Cat, by Storm Cat, trained by derbyking9] is also lightly raced and looking to make the step up into stakes action for the first time in a Grade II mile versus her own generation of fillies.  She, like Empire Story, is still eligible for a NW2x allowance.  Nocatofmine just has the luxury of slightly better numbers and slightly more consistent performances at the distance.  Her best efforts have her placed at or near the lead, with hopes of hanging on late and outkicking the stretch runners.  She has broken 100 once, with a 100 two back while third in an allowance, and is also bred to appreciate these middle distance routes.  From the records to the fact of this being one of the few late-season stakes for just the three-year-old fillies, these two have similar approaches and backgrounds.  It just needs to be stated that while Empire Story has more consistency, Nocatofmine has the edge in performance.  She should hand around near the leaders, and might be better suited to the mile, but again, there’s plenty of time to watch her continue to blossom late in the season, and not a lot of great reason to rush things by skipping ahead to stakes action; I like her chances better of the two, but think their ambition exceeds their respective abilities versus the best of the division at present.

My selections:

1. The Westies
2. Skippy
3. Five Points
4. Carol Of The Bells (for the sake of impartiality, not to mention logic)
5. Espresso D’Italia

Good luck to all, and happy racing.