Part 1: The $100,000 Shinkicker Dirt Mare Endurance from Oaklawn in Hot Springs, AR

(editors note: The author’s parents are originally from Hot Springs, AR. His good Baptist grandfather would take him to the back fence at Oaklawn to watch the horses run, but he has never been inside to watch a race.)

I decided to head home to northwest Arkansas after being in France and California the last 2 weekends. But, I just couldn’t resist a quick trip down to Oaklawn to check out the fillies and mares running this weekend.

The first race I’m going to take a look at is the Shinkicker Dirt Mare Endurance. It’s an 11F romp over the dirt for fillies and mares 3yo and older, with a purse of $100,000.

1) Smoke Rises: 5-2. The odds-makers have this 4yo daughter of Distorted Humor going off as the favorite, and that’s well-deserved. Her last 2 races have been Listed stakes at 10.5 and 11F and she has put down her best speeds of the year. I don’t think there’s anyone else in the field that can match her and I would bet her to win.

2) The Need To Forget: 7-1. This daughter of Candy Ride has had a solid 4yo campaign, being placed in Allowance and Listed stakes, all over 11.5 furlongs. She has 4 wins, a place, 2 shows, and a 4th. But, she’s only broken 100SP 3 times, the best being a 102. I don’t know what to make of her in this race. If I had $2 I didn’t mind losing I would probably bet her to show.

3) Vixen’s Run: 4-1. This 7yo is having a good 2015 campaign and is one of two going off at 4-1 in this race. She has 4 wins, most in Allowance company, but won the American Dirt Mare Route lto with a solid 109SP figure. I think she makes a statement that age isn’t always a hindrance, but I would bet her to place in this one.

4) Fleetwood Ichiro: 9-2. This filly has had a solid year, with 2 wins, 2 places, a 4th, and a 6th in Allowance and Listed company. She’s going out as 3rd favorite in this race, and I like her chances to show in this one as she’s had solid speeds above 100 her last 3 races.

5) Kitten Ridge: 4-1. This 4yo has never run 11 furlongs, and she’s shown a tendency to fade in some of her previous races this year. 4-1 is too strong a bet on this one. I don’t expect her to hit the board. Save your money.

6) Plebelian: 11-1. The long-shot in this race, Plebelian has been running consistently at 11F, so this should be right in her wheelhouse. But, those races have been in Allowance company and she’s only broken 100SP in 4 of her 31 career races. I see her bringing up the rear in this one. Not a contender.

7) Creepy. 8-1. This 6yo daughter of Zabeel is getting some love at 8-1, but she’s only managed a 100SP 1 time in 20 races. Also, her speed figures have dropped off her last 2 races as she’s extended her distance to 11F. Not a contender.

8) The Balvenie: 8-1. Owner Wrecked obviously knows good scotch, and he knows some good breeding with this 3yo filly (Galileo x Kingmambo x Secretariat). She’s running well and has recorded some solid speeds in her last 3 races. She gave good effort in her last race, the 10F G1 Players Club National Oaks, coming from 8th to finish 5th. Maybe that closing effort helps her here and she makes a show of it.

Win: Smoke Rises
Place: Vixen’s Run
Show: Fleetwood Ichiro

Getting some love: The Need To Forget, The Balvenie