The Grade 2 San Dimas Stakes
Showing my age, seeing “San Dimas” made me think of “Bill and Ted’s Excellent Adventure”, not necessarily one of Keanu Reeves’ best performances, but a bit of a cult classic. Therefore, I decided to take a look this California race and see if it might be an “excellent adventure” on Sunday. It’s a $375,000 stakes for 3-year olds and older, 8.5 furlongs, on the dirt.
The odds-makers are having a hard time sorting this race out, with the favorite, Seattle Stockings, going off at a pedestrian 5-1. Then, 9 of the other 11 horses are bunched between 6-1 and 9-1.
1) Galloping Hero, 9-1: This 4yo son of Hansen has had solid runs the last 4 times out, although he was overmatched LTO in the G1 Barry Foster Stakes, finishing 12th with only a 104 SP. His previous 3 races were 1st, 3rd, and 1st in a regular stakes race, a G3 stakes, and a G2 stakes with SP between 109 and 116. While there is a lot of stakes experience here, I think his last race shows he may not be up to the competition this weekend.
2) Timmins, 7-1: This 4yo son of Deep Impact also ran in the G1 Barry Foster LTO and finished 6th. He’s had 5 solid runs on the year with speeds between 107 and 117, but only 1 win, the G3 Heaven Stakes in January. I don’t think he has what it takes to win here, either, and finishes middle of the pack.
3) Town Crier, 7-1: 8.5 furlongs seems to be this 4yo colt’s sweet-spot, with his best speeds coming at that distance. But, that hasn’t translated to wins, with only 1 on the year, to go with two second place finishes. If I had an extra $2 I wasn’t afraid to lose I would probably put down a “show” bet, but I don’t think he really has what it takes to bring home the show, much less the win.
4) Neptune’s Seat, 7-1: Lenny31’s 4yo colt had an amazing 3yo campaign with 7 wins including 2 G1’s and a G2. However, 2015 has not been so kind, with some inconsistency and the only win coming in an allowance race over 10.5 furlongs on the grass. I honestly don’t see any improvement here and think the odds-makers are giving him the benefit of the doubt at 7-1.
5) Going Medieval, 6-1: Another horse that is running solid but unspectacular stakes races in 2015. His only win of the year was an allowance over 8F in February. This 5yo doesn’t have what it takes to compete here and finishes middle of the pack.
6) Eden Street, 37-1: Eden Street has been running unsuccessfully in Stakes and Graded company all year long. I don’t see him breaking the losing streak here.
7) Oro Midnight, 8-1: A 4yo colt who spent all of 2014 running on the grass has found a little extra speed on the dirt. He’s a closer, so I could see him making a run and stealing this, although I would bet him to place.
8) Seattle Stockings, 5-1: 3 wins on the year with speeds of 114 and 116 have made this horse the favorite, and I have to say that I like this son of Awesome Again for the win. He likes to run from the back and I think that helps him here.
9) A.P. Cloud, 6-1: A 7yo horse running with the youngsters? Going off at 6-1? Luckydaze has this horse in the right race, having had 3 Stakes wins (1 regular, 2 graded) and a 2nd-place G2 run in 2015. Speeds between 112 and 117 show up in the wins, but there’s a 104 LTO in the G1 Barry Foster Stakes that is a head scratcher. A.P. Cloud likes to run on the lead, but that may be a problem with closers like Seattle Stockings and Oro Midnight. I would definitely put down a “show” bet, though!
10) Purple Hooters, 8-1: Sometimes there’s a horse that has “spoiler” written all over him. Part of me wants to say he finishes middle of the pack, but another part of me says “this closer is gonna surprise them all!” He’s run his best 2 speeds of the year the last 2 times out, both at 8.5 furlongs, both being wins, with the last being the G3 Day Of Memorial Handicap. Purple Hooters is definitely in the top-5, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he pulled off an upset.
11) Gods Reward Fools, 8-1: This 4yo likes to run on the lead but faded a bit in The Barry Foster. Maybe cutting back from 9F to 8.5F helps him pull out a win, but I think the closers give him all he can handle down the stretch. I see him finishing 4th.
Win: Seattle Stockings
Place: Oro Midnight
Show: A.P. Cloud
Giving some love to: Purple Hooters, Gods Reward Fools