Compact Field for the Grade II The Smart Dancer
Focus moves this weekend to Canada, where the Pan Am games are being celebrated in nearby Toronto and in the track, a salty field of seven will be contesting the Grade II The Smart Dancer this Saturday at Ontario. Grass should be firm for this event, which will be held at 9.5 furlongs. Lets take a closer look at this group:
1 ONACCOUNT OF SPITE – ENCOSTA DE LAGO (AUS) x SPEIGHTSTOWN x A.P. INDY – This five year old mare just won her first stakes races ever, winning the listed Can of Whoop as Turf Mare Route going away. She seems like a late developer, so maybe she is just coming into her own at this age. Her trainer robbycano certainly has been very patient with this mare, and now gives her the opportunity to shine in this Grade II. There is no questions there are much more accomplished fillies and mares signed-in here, but if she keeps making forward steps, she will be dangerous, although her 5/1 is not appealing to me at all.
2 PALACE OF TRUTH– UNBRIDLED’S SONG x DANEHILL x MISWAKI – Beautiful, light grey filly by Breeders Cup Juvenile Winner Unbridled’s Song. So far, her best lifetime outings have come when she can have a clear, easy lead, and that is something she may have trouble getting in this race, as there is some other good, quality speed fillies entered in here. Her #2 post is a big plus for her, and if she somehow can accommodate with some leeway up front, they will have to catch her deep into the stretch. Trainer piccolo87 schooled her in the gate over the last week to make sure she will be ready to fly when the gates open.
3 LILI VON SHTUPP– DANEHILL DANCER x MR. PROSPECTOR x ROBERTO – Grade III winner that flunked last tome out as the 3/1 choice, but that was at a very long two mile distance, definitely not her forte. She also likes to be forwardly placed from the gitgo, the problem is that she has not won a race since October of last year, and, just as the filly coming from the two hole, her best showings have been when she can establish a clear lead up front. Race shape does not favor her, so at very low 5/1 odds, I will not take a risk on her. I’ll look elsewhere.
4 DAENERYS DRAGON– MONTJEU x SHIRLEY HEIGHTS x NUREYEV – She is another filly that will contribute to the hot pace expected at the start of this race. Over the last year, she has been running in groups of lesser quality than this one, and not doing badly in the process, but she will need to take a step forward to be able to win here. She is one of only two Grade I winners signed in, but that win was more than a year ago, and she will have to repeat that performance to stand a chance on Saturday.
5 LIGHTHOUSE BLUES – FASTNET ROCK (AUS) x MR. PROSPECTOR x MILL REEF – This filly has come into her own in 2015. After winning her first stakes race late last year, she has had four races so far since January, winning two additional stakes, including her first graded score in the Grade III The Nakayama Lady down in Japan. She didn’t fare well in the off going in the Grade II Black Betty, but then just missed in the Grade I Ugly Breeders Bowl, a race in which she came flying down the stretch. She should get a nice set up up front, and her versatility will enable her to sit mid pack and then come roaring in the final stages. The pick.
6 FIVE HOUR POWER– POWER (GB) x GIANT’S CAUSEWAY x SEATTLE SLEW – This filly is not what you call a winning machine, with just three victories in sixteen lifetime starts. She has been hinting to want added ground to work with, and the nine and a half furlong distance should be quite up her alley. She has not been able to win an added purse race, and seems like quite a logical horse to play in the lower level of the exotics. If the speed duel we envision materializes, she can pick up the pieces for a minor award late.
7 U CAN’T SEA ME – SEA THE STARS (IRE) x DANEHILL x MACHIAVELLIAN – She is another filly that prefers to be forwardly placed, but, coming out from post 7, maybe she will need to sit just off the pace. And with that in mind, her trainer cnlkf is working her in tandem with another one of his horses, wanting her to rate just of him and then come looking for him at the stretch. So far, the experiment is apparently paying off, so let’s see if we witness a return to glory for this consistent mare, the other Grade I winner of this bunch. Her last race was an easy win in the main track that should serve as a nice bolt tightener for this event. Dangerous, to say the least.
Picks:
This is an excellent preview, Ivanymil. Your writing has a nice rhythm to it and comes across in a very readable fashion. Your experience in the game shows in your writing as well.
Thanks for your kind words itch.