The Irish Derby G1- $1.5 M
The Irish Derby GI- $1.5M
Saturday, June 27, 2015 | 3:00 PM EST | Ireland (IRE)
Grade 1 | $1,500,000 | 3 Year-Olds | 12 Furlongs | Firm Turf
HAPPY ROCK BURG(1) is the unproven son of SOCIETY ROCK, and I say that because he’s a three time winner, none of which are stakes races or even unconditioned allowances. His speed figures are up to par however, his most recent race in the form of a one length victory in a NW4x allowance with a 99 rating. The colt is trying something new but isn’t the only competitor here trying the same thing. He’s hard to recommend but les111 is trying to see what the horse can truly do. He’s 18-1.
GOT THIS ON LOCKE(2) weakened late in the Irish 2000 Guineas to finish tenth by nine, probably due to the early speed duel he engaged in with EAT ‘EM UP YUM YUM. Looking at the speed here, he should get away clear and he’s hoping to score the early command with ease. We’ll have to see how the extra four furlongs affects his running style but the closers are very strong in this field. It could be tough for the son of ENGLISH CHANNEL to hang on for mtk even if the 7-1 shot manages slow fractions.
HOT COMEBACK(3) took five races to break his maiden, and finally did with a 92 speed rating. He came back and dropped a dud in his NW2, finishing third by four. He’s got the numbers of a GI winner, but it’s probably too soon for this son of PLEASANTLY PERFECT. An allowance win would be a step in the right direction before the graded stakes level for this one. Tullbrink throws this one in a test.
THE ONE TERMER(4) comes off a great two-hole trip but couldn’t seal the deal as late-closing ASPIRING SKIES beat him even after he passed the leader. He came second in that try, the Three Riders STK. After two consecutive seconds, the bargain bred son of WORTHADD shows that he was a pleasant surprise for meguire in what was not a guaranteed superstar to say the least. I wouldn’t be shocked if he won, but he probably won’t be one of my top three in a full field of 14.
ALPTRAUM(5) is slightly more promising than others in the ALW-GI category, but it’s still not favourable form. The DALAKHANI colt looks to continue on a three race win streak which begun in his fifth maiden try where he got it done by about five. He continued with a win in his NW2 and then NW3. His best looking effort was his most recent, with a 104 rating and a three and a half length win. Another interesting fact is that for the past five starts, the colt has been at Queensland and returns to Ireland where his first two races were held. He’s not the best of this bunch but has a fair shake. 10-1 is the price if you’re looking to make a play.
CEFIRO(6) was my third choice in the Japanese Derby G1 and he proved me right, rounding out the triactor beaten six lengths. The GALILEO colt tried 12 furlongs in the Japanese Derby G1 for the first time, and might have gotten there if late closing AMERICAN ROUGE and MAGRIB hadn’t had so much left in the tank. This one is a nice play here, with a fair chance. He might end up in my top three again at the odds he’s ever hovering at- 6-1.
DUBRIC(7) surged late in the covenant Derby De English but fell short to finish fourth by seven, but achieved a lifetime best 107 speed rating. My biggest concern is the 19 days rest the son of DUBAWI gets here. It’s tough for horses to get out there and repeat or even improve on lifetime marks, especially on 19 days off. This one’s usual late charge may not be as effective here, but I hope he proved me wrong. You’ll find 6-1 on the stockton trained colt.
BEGIN THE GAMES(8) came on late for a two length win in the Italian Derby G1, which makes me want to consider taking a second look at the allowance steppers in this one. He came off a two and a quarter length win in his NW3L and had the same statistics in the Derby- win by two and a quarter and a 105 rating. It’s not easy to repeat win efforts from and allowance and a G1 consecutively. This is a great horse, ever-improving, and has a great chance for his second G1 win in a row, and millionaire status. Loving the 10-1 price.
MIGHTY IN BATTLE(9) made a late play in the Derby de English G1 but came up short to finish third by six. He’s among the most inexperienced with six career starts but has already been proven to be a good horse, with a win in the Benelux Colts Turf Final, a second place effort in the Derby Stud Trail G2 and a third in the Derby de English G1. This one has a good shot here, and the son of NATHANIEL should be in the thick of things in the stretch. A ridiculous 11-1 on this hills trained colt.
SINGIN’ N’ DANCIN(10) is another allowance stepper, and this one won his NW3 despite only having one win before that date. The son of DANEHILL DANCER was bred to be a champ, but it could be too soon for this magoo trainee. His most recent victory isn’t much to go on, but it is a good sign. He could be a surprise on Saturday but I’m under the impression that he’s currently not ready.
ZIM(11) also steps up from an allowance after winning his NW2 by two lengths with a 95 speed figure. On his fifth race, he broke his maiden with an 89 SP#. The son of GALILEO has a slightly nicked breed with NIJINSKY II as a DS and NORTHERN DANCER as a DDS, but nicked breedings do work out a lot. So, another case of non-readiness, and 29-1 odds on this allowance stepper.
CROSS UP MONTE(12) looks to improve on a superb career best 106 speed figure in his NW3 win by three and a half lengths. This son of CAPE CROSS looks to be the best of the allowance steppers and may actually be ready. While I don’t think he’ll win the race here, especially looking at his two bad stakes performances in a row four and five races back, I think he could get a check and might be a good bet next time. He’s 9-1 out of the calvin barn.
DOWNPOUR CAUSEWAY(13) represents the only filly in the race and the morning line favourite after her crushing performance in the Diana Grand Prix G1, winning by four and getting a 105 rating. That extended her three race win streak, previously winning the Mother Teddy Turf Filly Route STK and the Commander Jericho Turf Route STK and the POUR MOI filly looks to extend it to four in a win over the boys. She looks to be in top form and deserves to be the 5-1 morning line top choice. I’d even say 5-1 is an overlay.
SEA MY HORN(14) rounds out this full field after his lifetime best in his NW3 allowance. He won by over three lengths with a 102 speed figure and improves every time. But, I have to raise that ever present question of- is he ready yet? The answer could be yes like so many others, but like so many others I’ll say the SEA THE STARS colt needs a little more growing room. Another good bet next time, once we’ve seen what he can do. The 11-1 shot comes from the a2912 barn.
MY SELECTIONS
1- BEGIN THE GAMES(8)
2- DOWNPOUR CAUSEWAY(13)
3- MIGHTY IN BATTLE(9)
Longshot play- SINGIN’ N’ DANCIN(10)