Primary Cry Looks Like One To Beat In Sydney Mile
SYDNEY MILE —–SATURDAY, APRIL 25—–
GROUP 1 PURSE: $1,500,000 SATURDAY, 3:00 PM EST
8 FURLONGS, OR ABOUT 1600 METRES TURF 3 YR OLDS AND UP
( 1 ) SILLI SUMMER (ENG)
Odds: 6/1 Owner: OTISTAYLOR RACING
The morning line guys have made Silli Summer the second choice behind Primary Cry here in the Sydney Mile. The one thing that pops out at you immediately from his past performance chart is that he seems to like a lot of time off between his races. Since May of last year, he’s only raced six times, and all of them were group events. He had some pretty impressive performances in there, including a couple of Group 2 wins in New Zealand in the Homelick Challenge Stakes and the Church Mound Stakes. After that, he fell short of winning another Group 2 event in New Zealand, when he fell just ¾ of a length shy of the winner of that race. This five year old son of Dansili who is out of a Montjeu mare must really like racing in New Zealand a lot. He’s thrown the highest speed figures of his career there in those three group races between September of last year and January of this year (114, 115, and 112. When he left New Zealand to go to Dubai for the racing carnival there, he faced what was probably the best field he’s seen in his entire career in the $3,000,000 Sand Castle Fee Duty. With 14 group winners and seven of them Group 1 winners, I think it’s fair to say that Silli Summer acquitted himself well in Dubai, finishing third in that field, despite being beaten by six lengths. This field is a touch softer, but not by much. Silli Summer likes to come from just off the pace in his races, and he seems to do much better when he has some fast early fractions to run at. For instance, when he ran in Dubai, he really didn’t have a hot early pace to run at late, like he did when he won the Group 2 Homelicker Challenge Stakes in New Zealand. He’ll have plenty of speed to run at late in this race, especially from the morning line favorite, Primary Cry. I think this is exactly the type of race that Silli Summer’s connections will like, with all that early speed up front.
( 2 ) OUTBACK TOYOTA II (IRE)
Odds: 9/1 Owner: VYZ RACING
Outback Toyota II is pretty lightly raced for a five year old. The son on Montjeu only has 15 career starts under his belt. And, he’s won eight of them. That’s a pretty nice win strike rate. Like Silli Summer, he likes to hang just behind the early leaders, like he did last time out in the Group 3 Intercontinental Trophy Stakes in New Zealand. He won that race, and he beat the morning line favorite here in the Sydney Mile. Primary Cry won that race, and he was clocked at 1:07 and change at the 1200 metre marker—a perfect scenario for Outback Toyota II, who ran down Primary Cry late and won by ¾ of a length. He comes in here on a three-race win streak, including a couple of wins at 8.5 furlongs in listed stakes just prior to his win over Primary Cry in that group 3 race in New Zealand last time out. He finished sixth in the only other group race of his career, the 1200 metre Group 3 Zeppelin Cap. But that race was a little outside his comfort zone as far as distance goes. He really prefers these middle distance races, and his speed numbers show it. Early on in his career, he was tried long on the turf, between 10.5 and 12 furlongs. But he really didn’t care for that. I think this is a dangerous horse to watch in the Sydney Mile, simply because he will like the fast early fractions that he’ll see from Primary Cry, Does he have back to back 117 speed figures in his tank, because that’s what it may take to beat Primary Cry for the second race in a row.
( 3 ) ALLAN’S GHOST (GB)
Odds: 14/1 Owner: JROGUE RACING
Eight. Remember that number, because that’s exactly how many Group 1 races that Allan’s Ghost has run in. He’s only got 17 career starts, so that means his connections must think awfully highly of this son of Dansili to keep him in group 1 company for so many of his races. Truthfully, most of those group 1 events came when he was a three year old last season, and only two of them were the same distance as he’ll see in the Sydney Mile this weekend. In one of them, the 2014 version of the New Zealand Dark Beers Stakes, he was beaten by Primary Cry, the morning line favorite here this weekend. Allan’s Ghost came from nearly dead last in that race, about ten lengths off the pace, to finish a very credible fourth. But Allan’s Ghost’s speed figures are declining, and it’s probably from a little fatigue. He’s had a ton of group 1 starts, and that takes its toll on a horse; but Allan’s Ghost has really had only one break from the races since late in his two year old season. A bit of a freshener might be good for Allan’s Ghost, after he goes in the Sydney Mile this weekend. He’s definitely a talented animal. That much is certain. But he hasn’t won since March of last year, when he romped home in front in the 9-furlong Group 2 South African Classic. Then again, a lot of those group 1 races as a three year old were ten furlongs, a distance that may have been too long for him. I would love to see what this horse would do after a little time off from the races. He could be a major player in the middle distance turf division later in the year.
( 4 ) GAME OF FROWNS (ENG)
Odds: 11/1 Owner: GRETA1 RACING
Six of Game Of Frowns’ 15 starts have been in group company, but this is his first group 1 outing. The 4 year old son of Nathaniel has some pretty nice speed figures coming in here, but he didn’t fare so well last time out against a lot of these he’ll see in the Sydney Mile this weekend. He faded to eighth in the Group 3 International Trophy. The hot early pace just cooked him. He’s a speed horse, and he just couldn’t keep up. Two starts back, he won the Group 2 The What The Who Stakes, and he popped a 111 speed figure there. Last November, he popped a similar number while finishing second by a neck in the Group 2 Leviathan. This guy has done well at a mile, but something tells me this might not be his preferred distance. His on again/off again efforts make me think he might want longer. He’s only got 15 career starts, so who knows? I don’t think he can keep up with this group early this weekend, try though he might. He wants to run with the leaders, but the likely early leader here will be Primary Cry, the morning line favorite. That horse can smoke up six furlongs in 1:07 and change if he wants to, and that’s about a second too fast (or five lengths) for Game Of Frowns. Maybe if this horse could somehow be taken back farther, he could make a run late. But I’m really thinking he wants longer. We’ll see this weekend.
( 5 ) STRUT THE FLOOR (IRE)
Odds: 41/1 Owner: MRCOKER RACING
This is a pretty interesting experiment that MRCOKER RACING is trying here. He’s got the longest shot in the race, Strut The Floor at 41/1, and he’s bringing him off a six-month layoff and throwing him in with the big boys in a group 1 event. The last time he ran was in the Group 1 Sourball Mile, against older horses, last October. He won that race, and he threw a 110 speed figure doing it. It wasn’t exactly a stellar field in the Sourball Mile last year, but he was racing against older horses. The final time of the race was 1:34 and change, so he’ll see much faster horses here. But remember one thing. When he won that Sourball Mile, he was coming off a three-month layoff, and he was sent off at 54/1 odds by the betting public. I would like to see what this horse can do against this group this weekend. Can he repeat his performance from the Group 1 Sourball last season? That might not be good enough. He might have to step up his game against this bunch. But he’s probably going to be a crowd favorite, since he seems to have the odds stacked against him here. Let’s watch and have fun with this guy.
( 6 ) BURN BRIGHT (KY)
Odds: 9/1 Owner: COOLK RACING
Burn Bright is a scratch-bred son of Bernardini, with Storm Cat and Miswaki in his pedigree. He’s coming in here, trying the second start off the layoff angle. Last time out, after taking the winter off for two months, he showed up in a listed stakes in the Czech Republic. He really toyed with that field there, winning by open lengths and throwing a 114 speed figure. It was the highest speed figure of his career. He’s facing the toughest group he’s seen in his career here in the Sydney Mile this weekend. And, he’s coming in here off another two-month layoff. He seems to run well when given lots of time off between races. He can probably compete with this bunch, if he throws a similar effort to the one he ran in the Czech Republic in February. And, I think he’ll certainly appreciate the hot early pace here, since he likes coming from just off the pace. This is only his second group 1 start, but don’t discount this horse totally. He’s got lots of reasons to do well here. He’s got a similar speed number last time out to a lot of these he’ll be facing. He’ll love the early hot fractions….and he’s well rested. Could be dangerous here in the Sydney Mile.
( 7 ) KINGS OF WINTER (AUS)
Odds: 11/1 Owner: LENNY271RACING
This scratch-bred son of Commands is only four years old and he’s got eight career starts. But he’s won five of them. Here’s the thing about Kings Of Winter. He’s never run a mile in his life, and you have to question whether he wants to start doing that against these animals in the Sydney Mile. These horses are quicker than anything that Kings Of Winter has ever seen. He does have a couple of really nice speed figure races on his chart (116 in a 7-furlong allowance win and 114 in a 7.5 furlong listed stakes win in Norway). There’s no doubt this guy has the goods, when it comes to the sprints. He’s a nice horse. But it remains to be seen how he’ll handle a mile. His running lines seem to suggest that he’ll like longer, and that he should appreciate a good, fast early pace, which he’ll definitely see here this weekend. His sire is Commands, a good middle distance sire. Not the best out there, but very good nonetheless. But no matter how talented he is, there is a huge question mark looming over this horse this weekend. How will he react to running the longest race of his career against a group of horses who are far superior to anything he’s ever seen? If he really wants more ground, then you could see more than just a nice performance here from Kings Of Winter. He is capable of winning this race. And, if he doesn’t want more ground, it’s probably back to the sprints for this guy.
( 8 ) PRIMARY CRY (PA)
Odds: 5/1 Owner: MRENFORCER RACING
The third time is the charm. That axiom appears to be true in the case of Primary Cry. The four year old Pennsylvania-bred son of Black Cry has been around the block, when it comes to owners. It looks like the former claimer is working for his third owner as he comes into the Group 1 Sydney Mile. After a fairly non-descript start to his career, he landed in the barn of MRENFORCER Racing Stables, and he’s finally started to bloom. No, wait. Make that…he’s finally started to boom. In his last five starts (all stakes races), he’s won twice, finished second twice and finished third once. In all five of those races, he’s really started to open some eyes in the turf miler division. He’s popped speed figures of 115, 114, 112, 117 and 115. And, that’s why he’s your morning line favorite here in the Sydney Mile. Three starts ago, Primary Cry ran in his first group race, the Group 1 New Zealand 2000 Dark Beers. He won, throwing the biggest speed figure of his career—a 117. He beat nine group winners there. After that, he went to Hong Kong for the $1.5 million Group 1 King Kong Mile to prove he was no fluke. He caught a slightly off track there, where off-track specialist and 29/1 longshot Stay Classy beat him. Last time out, the quick Pennsylvania-bred got involved in a speed duel in the Group 3 Intercontinental Trophy, and that probably cost him that race when he got beaten a scant ¾ of a length by Outback Toyota II, who ran his eyeballs out that day. You know, the amazing thing about Primary Cry is that before his last five starts in stakes company, he only ran two races in his entire career where he broke the 100 speed figure mark. The question that Primary Cry will have to answer at the Victoria Racecourse this weekend is pretty simple. How long can he keep up this break-neck pace where he’s going up against stiff competition in group company and throwing these huge speed figures? Despite being ranked #21 in the division, Primary Cry is one of the hottest turf milers around, at least for now.
( 9 ) BLAME DANZIG (KY)
Odds: 10/1 Owner: POGDIG1 RACING
Whether he runs on dirt or turf, Blame Danzig is one of the best animals in the small barn of Pogdig1 Racing. He’s done equally well on both surfaces in the past, but he’s really come on strong lately. He tossed a couple of 110+ speed figures in stakes races that really made people start to notice the 4 year old son of Blame. As a two year old and early three year old, he ran in a couple of graded stakes, before he hit the allowance circuit for much of his three year old campaign. After he won four of five efforts in allowance company on the dirt, his owner threw him back on the turf in October of last season, and that’s when the son of Blame really started to produce on the track. He had four second place finishes in a row, after he went back to the grass circuit, but look at his speed figures. They jumped dramatically, especially in a listed stakes race in New York and the Group 2 Railweigh Stakes in Victoria. He popped 114 and 113 speed figures in both of those second place efforts, before he took the winter off. He returned to allowance company last time out and finished second once again, throwing a 104 speed figure. That was just a race to knock the winter rust off. This horse is capable of throwing some pretty big speed numbers, but if you watch his races you’ll notice he has a penchant for racing close to the early leaders. He tends to get involved in speed duels, and that probably cost him a couple wins in stakes company before he rested for the winter. He’s going to be chasing a lot of speed here in Victoria this weekend, that’s for sure. I think if this horse can just lay a little farther back off the leaders than usual, he might be a horse to watch in this spot. He’s definitely got the talent to run with these. He just has to make sure they don’t run him off his feet early.
( 10 ) SCALDED LEOPARD (ENG)
Odds: 12/1 Owner: JROGUE RACING
This is one of two JROGE Racing entries here this weekend in the Sydney Mile, and Scaled Leopard is definitely the quicker of the two. He’s not exactly the rabbit here for JROGUE Racing, designed to come in and soften up the expected quick pace of the favorite, Primary Cry. This horse is probably the better of the two JROGUE entries overall, and he’s one of the few in here who can also throw 1:07 fractions for the six furlongs. That’s good enough to keep up with Primary Cry here early. Can he stay with him for eight furlongs, though. That’s the big question. He hasn’t won since March, when he was a three year old; but the son of Pivotal has a couple of impressive lately, including last time out when he threw a 113 speed figure in the Group 1 Roadkill Stakes. He led the way most of that race, before tiring late and finishing third. He did the same thing back in October in the Group 2 Usain Bolt Stakes….leading most of the way before settling for second. Geez. If this horse could learn how to reel in some of that early speed and save some gas in the tank for deep stretch, he would be an absolute monster. Until he learns how to do that, he’ll probably have to settle for a second or third here this weekend. I’m sure that the son of Pivotal can keep up early with Primary Cry. But start watching what happens to him about the 6.5 furlong marker in the race. If he can keep running with Primary Cry, he could give the favorite here a run for his money.
( 11 ) THE GAME OF GAMES (JPN)
Odds: 11/1 Owner: DANINJA RACING
The Game Of Games is another one here who hasn’t seen a whole lot of farm time in his career. Since he started racing as a late two year old, he’s only had a couple of minor breaks from the track. Yet, the son of Daiwa Major managed to throw some pretty big speed numbers in a couple of his races…including three of his last four starts. His best effort lately probably was in the Group 2 What’s It Worth Stakes in Paris late last season. He threw a 113 speed figure and came on strong late to finish second by ¾ of a length in that race in France. He followed that up with two pretty great efforts in listed stakes in both India and Belgium. He won that race at 8.5 furlongs two starts back in Belgium, when he popped a 112 speed figure. Last time out, he might have been either tired or out of his distance range, when he ran in the 9-furlong Jabba The Hut Stakes in the United Arab Emirates. His speed figure dropped a little in that race, and he finished five lengths off the winner. But he still ran a respectable third there. This might be one of the more distance specific horses in this field. I think, and this is just my opinion, that he really likes that 8.5 furlong distance a lot. He drew off late to win handily at that distance two starts back. He likes to hang around mid-pack before he launches his winning bid. That style might suit him well here, with so much early speed in this race. The important thing for this horse will be not to get too far back, because if he does, it could spell his doom here. This is a really quick bunch here in the Sidney Mile, and The Game Of Games better bring his game to Australia, where he’ll try his first group 1 effort. By the way, in case you’re wondering, he hasn’t raced since February 28. This is going to be the longest rest he’s had since he was a late two year old. It’ll be interesting to see how this guy responds here in this spot. You typically don’t see horses coming off this long a layoff straight into a group 1 event; but it’s hard to pass up a race like this when your horse seems to relish an early speed duel.
( 12 ) POLLO LOCO (GER)
Odds: 12/1 Owner: MEGABLAZE RACING
This Monsun colt is extremely well bred, he loves the mile distance he’ll see here, and he looks like he might be ready to throw a big race. Oh, and he’s fast too. A real front end type here in a race full of speed. But is he fast enough early to keep up with these. I’m not sure if he’s got that kind of easy speed, but he’s going to be pushing the leaders early on. That much is certain. The expected quick pace here is going to put a lot of pressure on Pollo Loco early. He doesn’t have quite the speed figures that the top tier of horses in here have, and it’s only his second time time in graded company. He did finish a respectable third in a group 2 event last time out. He could figure here, but with a top speed figure of 110 so far in his career, he’s going to need a real breakout race to keep up with this bunch. I like his breeding. Monsun x El Prado x A.P. Indy. I love the fact that he’s lightly raced, too. And, I really love the fact that he’s coming in here well rested. If he can lay away from the front enders here and not get involved in a speed duel, he’ll be fine in this spot.
( 13 ) MY OUTCRY (AUS)
Odds: 8/1 Owner: LENDER RACING
Now, here’s a pretty hot entry in the Sydney Mile who’s capable of great things. Two starts back, the son of Fastnet Rock absolutely blew up the stopwatch at a group 2 event at 8.5 furlongs, when he blistered the field with a 118 speed figure. Then he came right back off that effort to win another Group 2 event, with a 111 speed figure. But that second event last time out was at 8 furlongs, the distance he’ll be seeing here in the Sydney Mile this weekend You had best watch out for this guy from Lender Racing. He comes in here having won four of his last six starts (all since he made the switch from turf to dirt), but he doesn’t have a whole string of huge speed figures like Primary Cry does. But this colt may be just getting ready to explode and start his own big streak in the turf miler division. He’s got a ton of upside, and it’s starting to show on the track. This is a pretty dangerous beast from Lender Racing, a beast that I happen to like a great deal in this spot.
( 14 ) SHAFT CAGE (KY)
Odds: 14/1 Owner: GATETOWIRE RACING
Gatetowire Racing sends Shaft Cage here in this spot. He’s pretty lightly raced for a four year old, with only 12 starts to his credit. He started off his career on the dirt, where he was okay. But, as soon as he was switched to the turf, BOOM! This guy started doing some pretty great things in mostly allowance company. Then last time out, all that potential you were starting to see in this colt finally showed up on the track in the Group 1 Road Kill Mile. He’s got a lot of group racing experience for a colt this lightly raced. Five of his starts have been in group company. The best start in group company definitely came last time out in the Group 1 Road Kill Mile. He blew out a 115 speed figure only to finish second to Tearing Down Walls, who ran an absolute monster of a race that day. He beat Scalded Leopard in that race, as well…and that’s one of the horses he’ll be facing here in the Sydney Mile. You know, when you see a horse like this, one who comes up with this huge effort seemingly out of nowhere, the first thing that pops into your mind is “Will he bounce his next time out?” Some do. Some don’t. I’m not sure what Shaft Cage is going to do here this weekend. But I believe he’s just starting to find his true niche after 12 starts. It didn’t take him very long to grow into himself and find out where he belongs. He could be a dangerous colt in a race that is loaded with early speed. You are probably going to see some fast fractions here in the Sydney Mile, and that should work to Shaft Cage’s advantage. He’s a deep closer; so if he can get some of the others in here to push Primary Cry early, that could definitely work to his advantage here.