The Bargain Distance Challenge — Bargain Bowl

AUCKLAND, New Zealand — The Bargain Bowl’s premier long distance event is scheduled for Saturday in New Zealand, as The Bargain Distance Challenge will feature 11 hopeful runners over 12 furlongs on dirt. A purse of $100,000 will go to the field of 3-year-olds and up — more than half of which are female.

How does the group break down? Well, the top storyline is a rematch between the two favorites, but here’s a look at each runner and what they bring to the track.

 

(1) BRAZOS RUN                               (City Street x Smile x True Colors)
3yo Filly                                                33/1                                       bbrs

This 3-year-old is one of the most successful offspring ever for sire City Street (out of Carson City), but that’s not saying much for a horse with only 33 runners ever to his name, only half of which have ever won a race. Brazos Run bucks that trend, though. There are two immediate things that stick out about this filly: 1) She is one of just two runners in this field that has never won an allowance race or higher; 2) She’s completely untested as a long-distance runner. Those two things conspire to make her a long shot and a highly unlikely winner, though maybe she has had it in her all along. She’s won only two races in her career — one on dirt and one on turf. She is coming off a career-high speed figure of 93 in her longest race ever, but has never gone longer than 9 furlongs and has never tested herself against top talent. Expect to see her right on the leader’s shoulder as the race develops.

(2) KAEMPFER                                   (Be Valiant x Touch of Grey (GB) x Bold Hour)
6yo Mare                                            33/1                                       lglong2oyx

Kaempfer is the greatest horse ever born of the dirt-cheap sire Be Valiant (and was bred not by a player, but by the CPU). The 6-year-old mare has a long history of running long distances, and has racked up 12 career victories doing so. She’s won nine of her last 11 races and is the winningest horse in the field with 15 career top finishes; the biggest recent blip was a ninth-place finish that came in an open race. She’s never shown elite speed figures, though many of her wins have been by comfortable margins. It’s the level of competition that leaves this runner as a long shot. She’s made her name in mid-level claimers and starter allowances of the local-bred variety, leaving her untested against fellow horses of a high order. She should have plenty of legs, winning all four of the 12-furlongers she’s run and finding success at much longer, but her quality may be outdone in this field. Another runner likely to want to stay right in the leader’s pocket.

(3) SQUARE HAT                               (Yonaguska x Din’s Dancer x Pass The Tab)
3yo Filly                                                23/1                                       lgbost8

This 3-year-old daughter of Yonaguska (son of Cherokee Run) is the second competitor in this race to never have won above a claiming level. Her best performances appear to have come over 10 furlongs, including a victory her last time out in a $12,500 claimer, though she has run 12 furlongs and longer. When Square Hat wins, it’s on the legs of a strong close over the second half of the race, which she’s pulled off six times in her career. But just as often she has fallen short, finishing as runner-up seven times. She appears poised for a solid career from an earnings standpoint, but considering her considering she is currently untested and seems perhaps suited for slightly shorter races, Square Hat may find herself short in the field. Look for her to hang five or six lengths back and try to make her move in the race’s second half.

(4) STEAM TABLE HAM                  (Redoubtable (AUS) x Hammer x Steamboatwillie)
4yo Filly                                                10/1                                       eaaaprizes

The lineup of ladies continues with 4-year-old daughter of Redoubtable (not surprisingly a son of Aussie legend Redoute’s Choice) Steam Table Ham. She has not been as dominant as some of the other horses, but is more tested. She’s shown an ability to post 90+ speed figures, and although not overly tested at 12 furlongs, she has had success over long distances. And it was a mile and a half race in the spring that bodes well for Steam Table Ham. She won in May over 12 furlongs in The Stayer stakes, winning by two and a half lengths. She has not won in four races since, but has twice faced stakes competition while testing various distances. Another noticeable adjustment over that time is her running style. Previously an all-out frontrunner that wanted the lead and often kept it, over the past four races she has more often run just off the lead. It seems likely she’ll be on the lead or just off it in this one, and should be considered a legitimate contender, though not a favorite.

(5) PROBA DANCEHALL                 (Real Saga (AUS) x Postponed x Dancehall)
4yo Filly                                               10/1                                       proba

A 4-year-old daughter of Real Saga (via Tale of the Cat), Proba Dancehall is one of the least successful runners in this field, but should not be written off. She has just two victories in 20 career victories, but has never lowered her standards. She’s coming off The Over Highland Stakes, where she finished a spot ahead of Steam Table Ham, though neither was a factor. She also challenged herself in the Bargain Summer Distaff in August, and has otherwise toured the allowance circuit. Her last win came in April over 11 furlongs on turf against non-winners of two lifetime. A low 90s speed figure is a reasonable expectation and Proba Dancehall is a veteran router, but she has run over 12 furlongs only once, finishing second on turf. Hasn’t quite shown the top quality to make her a favorite by the odds-makers, but should not be left behind. Yet another horse who will want to be right at the front of the race.

(6) BAD LINE                                       (Straight Line x Bad As I Wanna Be (IRE) x Academy Award)
6yo Mare                                            7/1                                         hkbarfranc

The odds-makers like Bad Line — son of Straight Line, with Danzig blood — to finish in the money here, and that’s due to a heavy diet of stakes races and resulting victories. The 6-year-old mare is the second-oldest horse in the field, but won three stakes races in 2013. She has, however, not been as successful in 2014, with just one win (in an NW1t allowance) and none in her last five races. She’s been an absolute non-factor in her last two races, finishing more than 20 lengths back. Bad Line certainly has the ability to run the distance, with plenty experience at both 12 furlongs and longer. There’s no doubt that this lady has built an excellent career, with over $500k in earnings and a bevy of wins, but this Breeder’s Bowl may be her last shot to show that she hasn’t begun her decline. An inability to grab a high finish here may be a sign that her days as a top-level bargain horse have come to an end. In terms of racing style, she’s a pure closer, which may help her in this race.

(7) HZSAF LIES                                   (Antonius Pius x Carnegie x Casual Lies)
5yo Horse                                            8/5                                         hawkzsafs

At 8/5, Hzsaf Lies is the favorite to win this race for legendary Bargain Bred owner Hawkz. The 5-year-old son of Antonius Pius (out of Danzig) is not without his question marks, though. A couple of things stand out in his favor, as he comes of a victory by a neck in The Ko Ko Shan stakes to start November. That race was over 11 furlongs on dirt. He has tested himself in four stakes contests in 2014, and has three times posted triple-digit speed figures, something that no other racer in the field has on its resume. The talent seems to be there, but how will it come out in this race? Hzsaf Lies actually has the second-worst in-the-money percentage in the field, though some credit should be given for some high-level races. There is also the question of how suited he is to 12 furlongs. He has the ability to run it, but is it his ideal? Hzsaf Lies has spent the majority of his career running shorter routes, and has had some success at longer distances (a pair of wins early in the year over 16 furlongs on poly makes one wonder why he hasn’t been tried on poly since, even if they weren’t in elite races). He’s also been a mixed bag in his stakes races this year, with a win, a fourth, and two results that were not worth mentioning. Which Hzsaf Lies will show up? Should be happy running mid-pack before making a move.

(8) BUOYANT DINOSAUR             (Fantabulous King (IND) x Timeless Moment x Pitcairn)
4yo Filly                                                103/1                                     lglong3plus

A quick glance at Buoyant Dinosaur’s stats leaves one impressed. Fourteen wins in 17 races, finishing in the money all but once with nearly $200K in earnings and plenty of experience running long distances. But a closer look reveals a horse with astounding 103/1 odds to win this race. Although the majority of the 4-year-old daughter of Fantabulous King’s wins have come by astounding margins, his speed figures leave wanting, often winning races against small fields while never breaching 75. Her career-high speed figure is 82 a year ago. Buoyant Dinosaur has never had to run well to win big, because she’s only tested herself against starter allowance and restricted allowance fields, mostly in homebred races. She has been a great earner for an Lglong3plus Stables that has manipulated the horse’s ability perfectly, but there’s nothing yet to show she can run against top horses and succeed. She’s generally run a couple lengths back of the lead, but it seems unlikely she’ll be able to hold that against a quality field. Can she surprise?

(9) WOFTAM STAR                          (Kendel Star (AUS) x Lomitas (GB) x Buckfinder)
8yo Horse                                            22/1                                       woftam4

The old man of the field, this 8-year-old son of Kendel Star has taken to the track 56 times in his career but found a way to win only five times. Woftam Star hasn’t had much to cheer about in 2014, finishing in the top four only twice. He’s a route-running veteran though, and wasn’t uncompetitive in in the 12-furlong The Stayer stakes back in May, finishing fifth, eight lengths back. He’s coming off an 11^th-place finish in the 10-furlong The Copper Cup stakes in October. This horse has been quality, but certainly appears to be on the downslide. Likely his last chance to have reason to cheer this year, can Woftam Star turn this into a last hurrah? He’ll be a deep-running closer looking for a way to factor in late in the race.

(10) NIGHTCALL                                                (Time Paradox (JPN) x Alydeed x Mujahid)
4yo Colt                                                4/1                                         eaaaprizes

A 4-year-old son of Time Paradox (with Roberto blood flowing through his veins), the odds-makers have pegged Nightcall as a potential top finisher thanks to some solid finishes earlier this year. He has not finished worse than fifth since being claimed by Eaaaprizes Stables back in March of this year. He’s shared a field with many of his competitors in this one while testing himself in recent months, and is coming off a fifth-place finish in the 10-furlong The Copper Cup Stakes in late October. Before that it was back-to-back third-place finishes. He compiled his three 2014 victories in starter allowances. One reason the bettors like him is Nightcall’s proven ability to throw bigger speed numbers. He posted a career-high 101 in May and has consistently been in the high 90s. He should be OK at this distance, though he doesn’t have a long history at 12 furlongs. He has fallen a little short against the best competition he’s faced, but has shown some talent, leaving Nightcall as an intriguing but mysterious option. He’ll have to put things together to top this field, but should be a factor. Against stronger fields he’s tended to remain deep and attempt to close, often with late stretch runs.

(11) KNIGHTLY MAGIC                  (Yonkers Joe x A.P. Magic x Knightly Manner)
4yo Colt                                                7/2                                         plano8

A winner in 50 percent of his career races, Knightly Magic comes into this race as a second-favorite to Hzsaf Lies. Could this be where a great rivalry is born? The 4-year-old son of Yonkers Joe (out of Empire Maker) is fresh off a defeat by a neck to his aforementioned foe in The Ko Ko Shan stakes. He comes from humble beginnings in maiden claimers, but was claimed by Plano8 Stables as he broke his Maiden in 2013 and has since been led to a bevy of quality finishes. He has stretched out nicely, winning at 14 furlongs, while throwing big speed numbers. Although he did not win, his run in The Ko Ko Shan was probably the best of his career, so he may be one of the hottest runners in the field. Knightly magic has yet to post a stakes victory in his career, and will want to make this his day in the sun and exact some revenge on the odds-makers’ favorite. A deep-lying runner who closes with a late, heavy push.

 

It’s a field with a little bit of everything. What does that mean for how things will pan out? There are enough pacesetters in this race that it could very well set up kindly for a late closer, of which there are some quality ones. Don’t be surprised to see a dual over the final quarter mile between the top two favorites — Hzsaf Lies and Knightly Magic — in a repeat of their last time out.

I’ll call for Knightly Magic to exact his revenge and get his first career stakes win, barely edging out Hzsaf Lies. I’ll give Steam Table Ham the nod at third with Nightcall in fourth and Bad Line in fifth.

Good luck to all racers involved and enjoy the race.