Mission Impossible: Handicapping The Gr. 1 Japanese Saint Legend:
PREVIEW:
JAPAN (JPN) Sunday, October 26, 2014 3:00 P.M. EST
Group 1 JAPANESE SAINT LEGEND
PURSE: $2,500,000
DISTANCE : ~ 2800 metres / 14 furlongs / 1 mile and three-quarters
RESTRICTIONS: All Three Year Olds
Good luck, if you’re trying to handicap the 14-furlong Group 1 Japanese Saint Legend Sunday afternoon.
The majority of these three year olds, including 7/2 morning line favorite London Guildhall, have never even come close to seeing the 1 and ¾ miles they’ll be asked to go Sunday in Japan.
And, a few here including the 9/2 second favorite Little Column B, not only have never run this distance; they’ve also never been asked to run on the turf.
It’s a pretty whacky handicapping scenario, and if you can pick the winner here in the Japanese version of the Saint Legend, you should ponder playing your local lottery next week. While you’re at it, you need only buy one lotto ticket. If you can pick the winner here in Japan, that’s all you’ll need.
This race in Japan is offering colts and fillies who haven’t even completed their second season of racing a great deal of purse money for winning this race. The $2,5 million on offer here is not just one of the larger purses for three year olds in the world. It’s well over half as much money as these 14 boys and girls have earned in their brief careers combined
It’s practically a Dubai racing carnival day type purse.
But, Japan doesn’t do these kinds of purses for just one day or one weekend. Japan likes to be large and in charge all year long, when it comes to the purse money it offers to horses willing to come and try their luck here.
In a race that’s open to both the boys and the girls, the favorite here is a filly–a very, very good filly, to be sure.
London Guildhall has definitely run on the turf before. She‘s got that angle covered, and it’s pretty easy to see why she’s 7/2 in a full field of 14 here. She has had speed figures of 108 (or higher) in five of her last six starts, all of which have seen her finish in the top three. The 2014 Irish Oaks winner is for real. She’s no false favorite here.
Little Column B is a colt who never has run on the turf. Set as your 9/2 second favorite by the morning line guys, the Japanese-bred colt actually started his dirt career right here in Japan, winning his first two dirt races by open lengths last season. He finished a late-gaining third in the third leg of the American Triple Crown, when he journeyed to America. That‘s his main claim to fame coming in here, after his second place finish in another big American race (the Grade 1 Clerk Of Scales). He’s never actually won a group level race, but he‘s not alone here in that regard.
Like Little Column B, a lot of these have never won a group level race, but for a different reason.
It’s because nearly a third of this field has never even been in a group level event before this weekend. Ever. There are four in here who are making their group debuts here in Japan this weekend, including Forcing A Change (13/1), the Galileo son Dead Zero (18/1), Pigeon Hunter (13/1), and the only New Zealand-bred in the race and one of only two young fillies in this race, Yozz Herrad (13-1).
It’s just one of those kinds of races. It’s nearly impossible to handicap. You might want to pull for the horse whose saddle cloth bears your grandmother’s birthday. Or, like Yozz Herrad’s fans from New Zealand, you might just want to pull for the horse bred in your country.
Any one of them could win this thing, because they’ve either never been this distance, or they’ve never been in a group level race, or, amazingly, their owners are choosing to run them on the turf for the first time at the group 1 level here this weekend.
( 1 ) FORCING A CHANGE (JPN) Owner: MTK76
Odds: 13/1
He broke his maiden in his second career start in September of last year, the first of his three career victories. The last two have come in his last two starts in Sweden in condition allowance level events, where he broke the 100 speed figure barrier for the first two times in his career. He ran a career-high 107 last time out, when he forced the pace early and ran off and hid from the rest of the field late, leaving them in his wake. His connections, MTK76, had Forcing A Change running at or around the mile level for a pretty long time. But when he failed to launch consistently at those distances, he was brought up to 11-, 12- and 13-furlong races his last four times, in Japan first and then Sweden. And, that’s where he’s found his big success so far, with a couple of second place finishes and those two impressive wins at 13-furlongs the last two times out. Despite the fact he’s never run at the group level, those two 13-furlong races, especially that 107 speed blitz he put on in Sweden last time out, make him an extremely viable candidate for the 2014 Japanese Saint Legend trophy.
( 2 ) LITTLE COLUMN B (JPN) Owner: LENNY271
Odds: 9/2
From a barn that’s mostly known for its dirt runners (despite the fact that it owns the turf freak To Catch A Kitty, the computer’s 2014 Horse Of The Year), here’s your second favorite in the Japanese Saint Legend. The son of Admire Moon has done little wrong in his career so far. He won four of his first five career starts, and the bay son of Admire Moon did just enough to get himself into the third leg of this year’s Triple Crown, the 12-furlong Grade 1 New Yorker…on the dirt…in America, where he finished a very scary third, gaining a ton of ground late. If you watched that race this year and focused on Little Column B, you probably said to yourself what I did. Oh, if only this guy had another furlong or so! I don’t think anyone was going to beat I Won’t Look Back that day in New York at 12 furlongs, but give him a little more ground there, and Little Column B certainly would have made things interesting at the wire. Like we said in the introduction, this colt has never run on the turf before, and that’s pretty typical of his connections, who are quick to switch gears with their horses and try something new when they don’t fire in a couple of consecutive starts at the graded level. I guess the thinking is mainly American mainstream, that a horse only has a certain amount of quality time on the track, so you better find out fast where it belongs. This barn is used to running at the graded or group level week in and week out. And, it’s become accustomed to success. Hence, the sudden surface change for Little Column B in Japan this weekend in the Saint Legend. Can the local-bred Admire Moon colt win this race, though? The answer strains the temples, because the horse has never run on the turf. He’s done very well, running on the dirt in America with the best of the best of his age group there. But this turf waltz he’s dancing for the first time this weekend is something very new, indeed, for Little Column B. We think he’ll certainly relish the distance here, given the fact that he’s almost always gaining ground at the end of his dirt races, even at 12 furlongs. But will he like running on the weeds? You can make the argument that his sire only has two group 1 winners, and both of those were dirt horses. But you can pretty much throw history and stats out the window in a race like this, where there are so many unknowns in play. It’s a weird scenario for a late-closing dirt horse from America.
( 3 ) HABANERO HEAT (AUS) Owner: Gr8white
Odds: 14/1
The Aussie-bred Habanero Heat will most likely be your leader for most of this race in Japan this weekend. He shouldn’t be seeing any horse or jockey rear ends, at least for about the first three quarters of this race, if he follows the pattern he’s run all year long. Habanero Heat has already got more starts (17) than anyone in this field, and if you want to talk about sturdy and durable, then this is your colt. He has run 8 times as a two year old, and nine times already as a three year old. And, this year, he’s never finished out of the top three, including his forays into the group level events, which include the Group 1 Adelaide Derby (2nd there), and a couple of big races in Paris, the Group 3 Prix De Loot (3rd) and the Group 2 Hanging Chad (3rd). What makes this colt most interesting, aside from the fact that he possesses so much legitimate early speed, is that’s he’s one of only five in this field who have run 14 furlongs at the group level. And, he’s done it twice, with both of those coming in his last two starts in Paris, where he gave up the lead at the end after running up big leads in both races early. At the third call of each of those last two Paris races, the son of Street Cry lead the field by over 8 lengths in the Group 2 Hanging Chad; and he lead the gang in the Group 3 Prix De Loot by nearly 5 lengths. He’s lost a ton of ground late in his last two starts at 14 furlongs. In the Group 2 Hanging Chad, he was beaten by 9+ lengths, which means he lost 17 lengths to the eventual winner in the final quarter of that race. The Group 2 Prix De Loot distance swing in Habanero’s late meltdown there wasn’t quite so dramatic. That’s going to be the deal for Habanero Heat, who is out of the Dylan Thomas mare DT Queens Ransom. He’s certainly bred to go long. But he’s been tiring late in his two 14-furlong tries. He’s tired at the end of 12 furlong races too. But, gee his early speed is impressive. If he could just bottle some of that early speed that makes him look so impressive and uncork it at the end of his races, this colt would be virtually unbeatable on the long turf scene. He’s extremely consistent, and he’ll usually be around picking up a top three check at the end of his races, especially at the group level. But can Habanero Heat get over the hump and finally win one of these group things when he takes the track in Japan this weekend? That early speed can be a wicked weapon. And, it can also be a death knell for a horse who can’t control it. Let’s see if Habanero Heat can learn to rate a little and maybe hold back some speed and run a bit closer to the pack early. If he can do that, there’s no question this colt with the most career starts here has the talent to run with these. That much is certain.
( 4 ) DEAD ZERO (IRE) Owner: GIVEN
Odds: 18/1
If it weren’t for his last outing and that 109 speed figure he ran there, you probably wouldn’t see Dead Zero here this weekend. He started off his career as a two year old in extremely non-descript fashion during the final two months of last year. He had a couple of off the board finishes, and he was pretty well beaten both times. Then, the lights came on for the Galileo kid. That the lights just happened to come on two days after his third birthday is a non-factor. He won his first two starts as a three year old. Usually when these wake up, they’re good. Really good. But for Dead Zone, really good has happened only once, and that was in his last start. He threw a 109 speed figure in a shocking allowance win. It was shocking because running that kind of speed figure as a three year old will usually get you some kind of graded win…just about anywhere in the world. His connections missed a rare chance there to get him in the graded win column. That was a 16-furlong allowance, too, so this horse can get the distance. He has no experience at 14 furlongs, the distance he’ll see today, but with a couple 16-furlong races under his belt, that inexperience should be a non-factor today. He’s won three of four coming in here, so he is the hot horse. Can he do it in graded company? Dead Zero and his connections will find out today if that last race made him just a one-hit wonder or if he’s for real.
( 5 ) RAZOR THAT WINS (KY) Owner: Seedly
Odds: 15/1
Razor That Wins is a son of Tapit who only has eight career starts and two wins. But one of those wins was in a 14-furlong group race. He scored easily in the Group 3 Dutch St. Leger in Germany last time out, winning by four lengths. He only threw a 98 speed figure there. Don’t let that unimpressive speed figure fool you. It isn’t a big deal, since he probably walked home the last 50 meters or so, given how far he was out in front of the rest of the field. With Kingmambo and Danzig back there in his pedigree, you might think this guy would want dirt, but he didn’t do well on that surface as a late-starting two year old that season. So, as a three year old he’s seen strictly turf. Two starts back, he threw his highest speed figure ever (106), but he finished a strong-closing fifth in Germany in the Group 3 Furstenberg. He was only beaten 2 ¾ lengths as a 28/1 shot there. This son of Tapit can get the distance here. I think the only reason he’s got 2 wins in eight career starts is because he just hasn’t seen enough distance. That will change today in his second consecutive run at 14 furlongs. He’s a very live shot here at 15/1.
( 6 ) MAYBE NOT TODAY (IRE) Owner: LENNY271
Odds: 6/1
Maybe Not Today can change his name, just for this one race. Change that to Probably Today. This colt, who is a son of Galileo out of the Grade 1 winning mare Out Of Spite (Dynaformer) is regally bred–just about the best bred horse here in terms of big name sires. This colt started in May as a 2 year old, but he probably could have waited until June of this year to debut. That’s when he threw his first big speed number. He popped a 110 in a local-bred 11-furlong allowance win, where he romped and stomped his way to a visually impressive win over a field of over-matched Irish-breds. He followed that up with another win in another Irish-bred allowance race. He finished off the hat trick with his third consecutive allowance win, when he stepped outside local-bred allowance company down under in New South Wales. He pulled a 113 speed figure there, probably good enough for a graded win, when he was stepped up in distance to 12 furlongs. Last time out, he closed late and pulled his fourth consecutive 100+ speed figure of his career, only to miss by 3 ¼ lengths in the first graded start of his career, the 11.5 furlong Group 3 Purchased Race For Goofy Scot Stakes, again in New South Wales. He’s never run longer than that 11.5 furlongs, but that’s okay. This colt has shown by his last four speed figures that he can get the distance, and he should actually relish the 14 furlongs here in Japan this weekend. He’s 6/1 here, and he looks super in this spot.
( 7 ) BARZALONA (IRE) Owner: Coolk
Odds: 20/1
This three year old son of Pour Moi, out of the A.P. Indy mare Future Dream, is 20/1 in this spot. But he shouldn’t be, at least not based on his last race. He ran a 115 speed figure, which beats just about everything else in this field, in an easy win in the 14-furlong Group 2 Saint Legend in Surrey. He’s only got six career starts, and he’s won three of those. Two starts back, he threw a 99 speed figure. But that was his first career group win, a romp in the Group 3 16-furlong Queen’s Flower Pot. He won by six lengths there. He barely broke a sweat. But here’s the telling thing about his last two races. He was 16/1 and 23/1 in each of those races, and he won by open lengths. This colt might be ready to surprise again here today at 20/1. This is a much tougher field, of course, in the Group 1 Japanese Saint Legend. But give the way he handled both of those fields in his last two starts should mean that he’s ready for the step up in company. Keep your eye on this guy today. He’s just getting started in his career, but he’s quickly coming of age. Can he win this third consecutive group race with only seven career starts under his belt? He looks really good here, he’s got the speed figure (115) in his last race to run with this bunch. I think it’s only a question of whether or not he can get the proper trip. He didn’t get farther back than seven lengths behind the leaders at any point in his last two races, and I think that’s they key to his success or failure today. Stay close to the leaders, and this son of Pour Moi might have a great chance to win.
( 8 ) LONDON GUILDHALL (KY) Owner: Newmarket
Odds: 7/2
She’s one of two fillies in this race, and London Guildhall from Newmarket Racing is your 7/2 morning line favorite. Out of 11 career starts, she’s got five group 1 starts. That makes it pretty obvious that the class of this field today is this daughter of Street Cry, who‘s got Sadler‘s Wells and Monsun in her pedigree. She won the Group 1 12-furlong Irish Oaks three starts back, and she was a late-closing third in each of her last two starts, both group 1 events. She ran third in each of the Group 1 12-furlong Yolkshire Oaks and the Group 1 12-furlong Vermillion Stakes. But the important thing to note in each of those races was that it was her first two times running against older fillies and mares in prestigious group 1 events. That’s why this filly is 7/2 here today. She’s never raced against the boys, but I wouldn’t think that’s much of a factor, given the fact that’s she raced impressively against older females. These are only three year old boys, after all. And, look at her last four speed figures. 108, 109, 108 and 110. That’s impressive for a three year old filly running in group 1 company. On paper, she looks the one to beat today. Can she beat the boys? We’ll see today. She’s handled the older fillies and mares and acquitted herself well. She should come running late at this bunch, and she would probably like some good front end speed to run at here.
( 9 ) PIGEON HUNTER VII (AUS) Owner: Bmr006
Odds: 13/1
The three year old son of Fastnet Rock is really just starting to find himself. With Darshaan and War Chant back there in his scratch-bred pedigree, it looks like the more distance he goes, the better he gets. It took him ten starts to break his maiden, and you sort of got the feeling that maybe he was going to be one of those career low-level allowance or upper-level claimers. Then, something went on inside Pigeon Hunter VII’s head. In three of his last four starts, he has thrown 100+ speed figures. That’s not just a coincidence. This colt has been begging for more distance. And, when he finally started seeing 12-furlong races, that’s when the horse started firing. Granted, his last three starts were condition allowance starts, but he’s finished either first or second in all three. The fact those races were in the United Arab Emirates is pretty significant, because usually you get some pretty nice horses running for the big purses in the UAE. This guy likes to fire late. He comes from way off the pace in his races, so you probably won’t see him anywhere near the front end today. At least not early. What’s going to be so interesting here is the increase in distance. The two more furlongs could be right up this colt’s alley. And, if he increases his speed figures, like he has been doing lately, you might want to watch for this guy late in Sunday afternoon’s big race in Japan.
( 10 ) YOZZ HERRAD (NZ) Owner: Vyz
Odds: 13/1
She’s one of two fillies in Sunday’s Japanese Saint Legend, and she looked really impressive in her last two starts. The three year old daughter of Falkirk who is out of the New Approach mare La Herradura has 16 career starts, but really it wasn’t until she started hitting the 11 and 12 furlong races the last two times out that she began to hit on all cylinders. Last time out, in a 12-furlong listed stakes in Spain, she faced older fillies and mares for the first time ever, and she roared from dead last, 16 lengths off the pace, to get up late for second, beaten only two lengths. This little girl can run late, and the added two furlongs she’ll see here today should only help her chances in this spot. She doesn’t have the speed figures that a lot of these have, but she’s really just finding herself in these longer distance races. She’s got 102 and 103 speed figures her last two times out, the first time in her career she’s tossed these kinds of numbers. She’s a former claimer, and she’s running in a group 1 race this weekend. Anyone could have claimed her for as little as $60,000 as a two year old, when she was running in claimers. And, here she is, running in a group 1 race. And, she’s got more than a decent shot. Don’t take Yozz Herrad lightly on Sunday.
( 11 ) EVIL CRUSH (ENG) Owner: LENNY271
Odds: 11/1
Evil Crush, one of a couple of Lenny271 racers in here, probably started his career a bit early, when he debuted in May of last season as a two year old. After his first two starts, his connections gave him three months off to sort of gather himself a bit, and when he matured a little, he won a couple of impressive races on the dirt to close out his two year old season. Three of his first four starts as a three year old were also on the dirt, but he couldn’t find the winner’s circle, so he was brought up in distance, quite a bit, in fact. And he was also switched to the turf. That combination of circumstances has been a huge boost to his career. He reeled off three wins in a row, all at 11 furlong condition allowance events. Two of them were local-bred races, so you didn’t quite know if he was the real deal then or what. Then, he hit graded company for the first time last time out in the Group 3 11.5-furlong Purchased Race For Goofy Scott Stakes in New South Wales, and the son of Pivotal finished a pretty decent third there, throwing the third 100+ speed figure of his career. He may not look, on paper, like he’s as good as this stable’s other two entries in this race (Little Column B and Maybe Not Today, who are 9/2 and 6/1 respectively). But you never know with this stable. They have lots of multiple entries in group races, and, sometimes, one like this who looks like the weakest of the multiple entries jumps up and surprises. That could very well happen today with Evil Crush. He should provide some front end speed here in a race that has very little legitimate front end speed. He could be the rabbit for the connections’ other two entries. But if he ends up liking this 14 furlongs, and he gets far enough out in front, they might not catch him. We’ll see. Don’t cross him entirely off your list here.
( 12 ) KEPLAR RED WAY (KY) Owner: Marre
Odds: 13/1
Keplar Red Way from Marre Racing Stables is a three year old son of Giant’s Causeway who has some pretty regal sires in that pedigree of his. He’s out of the group 3 winning Red Ransom mare Keplar Plastic. He ran with the speedy Habanero Heat in his last start, the Group 2 Prix De Loot in Paris. He finished half a length behind that one, finishing fourth after making a huge move from the back of the pack to make up 10 lengths late. That’s how this Giant’s Causeway son rolls. The farther back he is from the leaders, the better he runs at them late. He came from 18 lengths off the pace there, and he was flying at the leaders late. He popped a career high 102 speed figure there. Keplar Red Way gets the same distance here in Japan this weekend, and that should make him a very dangerous colt in this spot. I think eventually he might even like longer than the 14 furlongs he’ll see today. This horse has the stamina to run all day long and he should love 3200 metres, or 16 furlongs, eventually. He won impressively at 16 furlongs when he was prepping for the Prix De Loot. Keep your eye on this colt on Sunday, and in the future, when the races get longer. He could be a really dangerous 16-furlong specialist eventually. This will be his first group 1 event and only his second ever group start, but I have a feeling this colt might have big things in store for him in the future.
( 13 ) K’s MUCUCHIES (ENG) Owner: Ledwith
Odds: 15/1
K’s Mucuchies has 14 career starts, he’s one of three group 1 winners here in Japan this weekend, and his sire is Frankel. What more do you need to tell you that this colt has a live chance this weekend? Well, how about the fact that he’s out of the stakes winning mare, K’s Chachopo, who has Sadler’s Wells and A.P. Indy in that beautiful pedigree of his? How about the fact that he’s finished top three in 11 of his 14 career starts? Or, maybe, how about the fact that’s he’s won nearly 50 percent (6) of his 14 starts. Four starts back, he won the Group 1 Italian Derby with a 104 speed figure, beating a pretty impressive field there. He came from way back against that field in the Italian Derby. If you look at this colt’s past performance charts, have a glance at the second call of most of his races. Look how far back he was midway through his races: 13 ¼ lengths, 10 ½ lengths, 13 ¾ lengths. This guy gives new meaning to the term deep closer. He loves to drop in out of the clouds in his races, coming out of nowhere to win. It seems the farther he goes, the more he likes the race, and that means he’ll probably love the distance in this 14-furlong Japanese Saint Legend this weekend. He won’t have a ton of early pace to run at here. But that doesn’t seem to matter much to this son of Frankel. This is a quality animal here in this spot, and it’s a little surprising that he’s 15/1 on the morning line. He’s only been that distance once in his career, and he finished second in that start. He just ran out of ground there. Usually, when this colt loses, he’s always making a huge late rush at the leaders, and that could help him here in Japan on Sunday. Watch for this guy to drop to the back of the pack and come on strong late with a huge run. If you see his number on the race viewer start to climb and pick off horses, you can almost bet this guy is going be around for a check at the end. He might just win the whole thing. He’s that good. And his connections are even better. Ledwith Racing doesn’t usually put horses in group level spots unless they feel the horse is sitting on a big race, which explains why the connections have so many group level winners over the years.
( 14 ) MORE THAN A MINION (IRE) Owner: Broohar
Odds: 12/1
In a field loaded with deep closers, here’s yet another one. But this one is a group 1 winner. More Than A Minion is a three year old son of Peintre Celebre, with Agnes Tachyon and Kingmambo in his pedigree. He won a huge race down under a few starts back when he beat a very nice group of colts in the 12-furlong Group 1 Adelaide Derby. He came from 15 lengths off the pace there to score what ended up being a relatively easy open-lengths victory. He’s been group-placed in two other events, the 13-furlong Group 3 The Vase Of Chester where he threw the highest speed figure of his career (101) and finished second; and the 12-furlong Owner’s Stakes in Canada, where he came from 16 lengths off the pace to finish third, beaten only four lengths. He was badly beaten in his last start, the Group 2 Saint Legend Stakes in Surrey, but everyone was badly beaten there, when the winner popped a 115 career-high speed figure. That colt’s name was Barzalona, and that one will be right here in Japan, racing in the Japanese Saint Legend. In the Saint Legend in England, More Than A Minion just got too far back, even farther back than he usually gets, and it was just too much ground to make up late. He probably saved a lot of energy not keeping up with Barzalona there, and that energy might come in handy this weekend.