Filled field in Kentucky! The Last Woman

Welcome to Kentucky on this sunny Saturday! There is some graded action in Kentucky this weekend and this is the first of three Grade 1 stakes.

This Grade 1 will be a mile on the turf track and the 14 girls in this race will race for the purse of $400,000. Not much to many, but at the same time loads for others, of course as we DerbyFever players are not after the actual cash in the race, we all want the fame and glory!

This race doesn’t go far back in the DerbyFever history so the records are maybe easy to beat. It actually only started in 2009 and originally was on the KY1 track, but in 2012 when the DerbyFever game had a makeover a lot of these extra tracks was removed. So after that the race has been on the regular KY track. The record speed on KY1 is set to 111 in 2010, after the move to the regular KY track the race seems to have been a bit slower since the record so far is only 106 and that was in 2012. This is of course due to the fact that the race hasn’t been run many times on the regular KY track. The funny thing about these records is that both records are held by the same girl Mambo De Calle.

At gate number 1 we have the lightly raced 4yo Uniform (Pulpit x Pleasant Colony x Roberto), getting ready for her first stakes action in the career. She actually started racing on the dirt and was moved to turf with more success there. For me this girl looks to be nice and she might be maturing late. But the question is if she is ready for G1 action, in my eyes she really need to prove that she belongs in this level. She is coming here with 2 straight 2nd’s and before that 2 straight wins, that might seems like a good record, but the speed need to be a lot better for her to get into top-5. She might be coming from behind trying to take advantage of little early speed.

At gate number 2 we have have an even more lightly raced 4yo filly in Monriver (Monsun x Lyphard x Riverman). There are a lot of nice breedings and pedigree in this race, but if I can select a favourite pedigree this would be my choice! This girl looks to be a future superstar coming here with a stakes win and a G2 in the backpack. She have the speed to win and is steady improving her speed as well. This might be the race when she takes her results to another level, to join the exclusive club of G1 winners. She might be going for the lead in this race or she will be just behind the lead.

At gate number 3 we have the 4yo filly Let’s Dance On (Dansili x Giant’s Causeway x Seeking the Gold). She sure have a nice pedigree and a very solid race record with 7 wins in 19 starts. Apart from her 7 wins she also have 6 2nd’s and 2 3rd’s, so she is pretty used to finish among the top positions. She have been racing on 9-10 furlongs this year, so going back to mile might be the thing she need, 2 wins this year in a listed stakes and a Grade 3 stakes, but it was early season. She will be looking to find that winning form again and with the right race she should be able to reach top-5. My guess is that she will start the race slowly and try to catch up!

At gate number 4 we have the most experienced filly in this race, the 5yo Saphire (Giant’s Causeway x Mr. Prospector x Alydar). Her career is coming to an end at least on this level, but I am sure she will make an excellent broodmare when it is time. She is coming here with 1 million in the bank and several nice runs. This race will be her 30th race so I guess the trainer is hoping for a nice race in this special race. Looking at her form, she started this season pretty good, but the speed was already at that point a bit slow. She actually did a pretty nice race before this one, but again I think the speed is to slow to win a G1. If she can find her steps and produce one more fast race like the old days, she will be able to make it to top-5, but I don’t see it as possible. She might shock us and go for the lead, but I would think that she will be in the middle of the field and try to catch up.

At gate number 5 we have a nicely breed 4yo in Gowans To Be Good (Elusive Quality x A.P. Indy x Sadler’s Wells). She have 7 wins in her 15 starts, so it is a fairly good record winning almost half the races she ran. She have been a really steady performer with her last 10 starts over 100 in speed and I am pretty sure this girl is getting ready to take another step in the right direction and she would really need to do that to win this one. The question is if this is the race she takes that step in or if it comes further down the road. She have a major chance at winning this race, but a top-5 is to expect at least! Another girl that will remain in the middle or back in the field at start and try to build up speed for later.

At gate number 6 we have another 5yo filly with experience. Law Of Success (Cape Cross x Dynaformer x Kingmambo) have been inconsistent though. but is still solid at getting top-5 place. She have started 6 times in 2014 and won 3 of those starts, during this year she had only 1 graded start and that didn’t work out at all. To her defense it was maybe a bit to many furlongs for her ability and going mile she should have a much better chance. If she is running the speeds she is able to produce from time to time she will be a major candidate this day, but at the same time the race could end up being to fast for her. She will most likely stay behind the front runner, but could surprise us with going front, she have done that with success before.

At gate number 7 we have a 3yo filly from Germany. This is actually my own horse so I will keep myself short about Akna Samum (Samum x Oasis Dream x Giant’s Causeway). She have been finding form in local racing and in her first stakes try she finished 3rd. In able to get a good result in this race, she would need to perform like she never had before. She will most likely be hanging around the back of the field and try to use all her energy at the end, she is hoping for a race that doesn’t have to much early speed so she will be able to catch up.

At gate number 8 we have a very nicely breed 4yo filly in Motorboat Joy (Kitten’s Joy x Kingmambo x Seattle Slew). She have 8 wins in her 20 starts so she have done good! The question is if she is ready to step up in graded level, cause her racing this year have been in allowance and listed stakes. She have some good speed if the race is right and she might be a girl that would go for the lead or just behind it. She have a nice chance of getting a result out of this race, but would need to find the best speed she have produced.

At gate number 9 we have another 3yo filly. She haven’t reached more than 9 starts, but in those 9 starts she managed 5 wins. Picardy (Dubawi x El Prado x Kris S.) is looking really good and seems to have stepped up her speed the last races. She is coming here in good form with a win and a 3rd in the last Grade 2 races. She looks to be able to reach superstar level within the next year, so if she doesn’t win this year I am sure she might be back next year as one of the favourites! She will also be one of the horses running in the middle of the field and possible even further back.

At gate number 10 we have yet another 3yo filly with 14 starts. I’m The Law (Badge of Silver x Dansili x Roberto) has yet to show us good speed, but I don’t question her form with 3 straight wins. Is this step up in level to much or is she ready to show us that she is a really fast runner. The trainer have hopes in her and I can understand that, I don’t underestimate a runner in form, but if she doesn’t increase the speed she might be in for a rough day. She looks to be best just behind the leader, but she might shock us and be in to take the lead.

At gate number 11 we have a 4yo filly that have producing really good! 7 wins and 7 2nd’s in 17 starts. Barroom Beauty (Shamardal x Danehill Dancer x Galileo) is breed with a lot of influence from Ireland and of course that is something I like, at least when seeing a turf runner. This girl seems to have matured late, since she have not been so convincing in the past. If we look at this year she have been amazing. 6 starts this year with 5 wins, winning G2 and a listed. She seems to be a runner that doesn’t use all energy if it isn’t needed and if needed she will produce some really nice speed. I would say she is one of the favourites in this race, she have excellent form and she seems to be able to produce better and better speed. She will be staying far back in the field and trying to get to the lead with late speed.

At gate number 12 we have a 4yo filly with the name K’s Anecdotage (Oasis Dream x Awesome Again x Distorted Humor). this girl has also been inconsistent and haven’t won any of the last 3 races, so the form can also be questioned. Before that she had 3 straight wins, 2 of them was hot races though. This girl have a good chance of top-5 if she can build on the last speed with 108. If she want to win she need to step up a level and improve the speed. She will be running her race in the middle of the field or a few lengths behind the front runner.

At gate number 13 we have a G1 winning 4yo, actually the only G1 winner in this race. Song Slam (Unbridled’s Song x A.P. Indy x Seeking the Gold) doesn’t have a very turfy pedigree, but looking at her racing it is pretty obvious it is the best surface for her. She have not been as good this year as previous years, but she have been producing solid numbers. I am not sure it is G1 winning speed for the most time, but now and then she have really good races. She seems to be able to run sprint but also up to 10 furlongs, so sending her to mile is a good choice. If she can produce her best she will be one of the favourites and to be honest she is the only proven G1 winner in the field, so she have to be one of the favourites. She will be be hanging in the middle of the field with a chance she might be even further behind. She hope to get influenced by the other late speed horses and find the wind going forward in group.

At gate number 14 we have another 3yo filly and the last horse of the field. Maybe it is tough for Historic Ramp (Medaglia D’Oro x Cryptoclearance x Danzig) to be a 3yo and start far out or maybe it will be perfect to not be pressured by the other horses in the start. It looks to me that this girl hasn’t found her correct distance yet and have been tested on route but also sprint. When it comes to her mile record it is ok, but not more. It is hard to ignore her last two starts though on 7 and 7.5 furlongs. She actually managed to produce really good speed with 107 and 110. If she can take another half furlong and continue with the form from the last 2 races, she will be in the top-5. She will be in the group in the middle fighting for the best position for the stretch.

Good luck to all runners and trainers!

Daniel’s top-5: Monriver, Gowans To Be Good, Picardy, Barroom Beauty and Song Slam

Daniel’s crazy bet: I’m The Law