8 Fillies To Race For The Stud Command
A short field of 8 will line up on Saturday for the feature race in Texas, the Grade III Dallas Stud Command Stakes, a 7 furlong sprint for 3 year old fillies on the dirt track predicted to be dry and fast. The runners by Post Position:
PP 1 – Silver Designer (Silver Ghost x Mill Reef) is a lightly raced filly who’s never been worse than 2nd in her brief 5 race career for breeder/trainer ufsldowns, and is riding a 3 race win streak to boot. She’s stepping up a bit in class (to her first Graded class race), but that hasn’t bothered this stalker/closer yet, as she’s won at first asking against non-maidens and in stakes company. The slight added distance shouldn’t hurt here either. If she gets a hot pace (a likely scenario given a few of the fillies in this race), she could well be in position to win it in deep stretch. 8/1 seems an excellent value for a girl who might not even have hit her peak yet. Oh, and good luck to ufsldowns, in pursuit of the stable’s 100th win (they’re sitting at 98 as of now)
PP 2 – Bongaree (Congaree x Forty Niner) comes in from the hightimes stable with another set of impressive qualifications, having a 3-2-0 record in 7 lifetime sprints, many of those in ungraded stakes races. She comes in off of a sterling performance last time out, hanging on to win by a 1/2 length at 7.5 furlongs with a 97 speed figure on a wire-to-wire dash. She figures to have company out of the gate this time from at least the 5th (Nippon Flyer) and 7th post positions (Sail Again), and runs the risk of getting caught up in murderous fractions. Of the three (minimum) early speed horses, this one has shown the best top speed figure, but it’s always a danger to run full out if you don’t get a solid lead, when you have good stalkers and closers behind you. One to watch for sure though.
PP 3 – Exquisite Release (Elusive Quality x Pulpit) comes from the hihosilver stable, and is your race favorite, and there is definitely plenty to like in this solidly-bred brown filly. She’s got the most consistent speed figures in this bunch, having hit 94 or higher in her last 3 races, she’s got a versatile stalking style that will let her come from a bit off the pace, or stay close to the leaders if there’s a soft pace set, and she’s in good form, having 2 firsts and a second in her last three starts, all ungraded stakes. That said, there are still a few questions: She seems a bit more adept at a mile, two of her four lifetime sprint wins have come on an off track, and this is her first foray into Graded stakes, after 14 lifetime starts. She looks good here, but I like the value of the #1 horse here at 8/1 a bit better than this filly’s 5/2.
PP 4 – Incomprehensible (Unbridled’s Song x Storm Cat) is one of the longer shots here at 7/1, but seems in a bit farther over her head that that. Trainer lionheart sends her out with one win, a very impressive MSW in her debut 5 races ago, but she hasn’t shown much since against winners, in either allowance or stakes company. Certainly her speeds show her to have considerable potential, but from what she’s shown so far, it seems to me that she’ll need another couple of steps up before she can beat these. And a 5% winning jock up for this race isn’t doing much for my optimism, either. But again, this is why they actually RUN the races.
PP 5 – Nippon Flyer (Fusaichi Pegasus x Deputy Minister), bred and trained by casino, is one of the early speed horses here, and she’ll have her work cut out for her, as Bongaree in the #2 post has better speed numbers up front, but if this Fu-Peg daughter can get her competition up front to give it up, she has a chance to wire this field. It’ll take some doing though, as her top speed number lifetime was the 85 she ran last time out. She does have the accomplished rider C. Shoemaker up though (23% wins), so you can’t count her out here.
PP 6 – Fulgurant (Green Desert x Kingmambo) is another 7/1 shot, and a versatile style runner, having been a speed-first horse with some success earlier in her career, and lately likes to run just off the pace. Trainer general obviously has worked her in whatever style the competition calls for. Trouble here again, is her career-best speed figures don’t seem to be good enough to beat a few of these. She’ll probably hang around the middle of the pack and try to come back down the stretch, but there might be a couple of more accomplished fillies just ahead of her at the wire.
PP 7 – Sail Again(AUS) (Reset(AUS) x Afleet) is saddled by breeder/trainer zooomr4, and is an intriguing play at 6/1. Biggest question is her last race. She rated perfectly just off the speed and ran by her competition to win going away at this exact distance. But that was in the slop. Will she be able to rate that way on a dry track? She’s done it before, but not in her last 6 races. In between, she’s gotten to an early lead three times, only to stop, finishing 7th, 3rd, and 3rd. With a trip like the last one out, along with a speed duel up front, this girl’s got a fine chance to get her picture taken in the winner’s circle.
PP 8 – Jades Treasure (Gone West x Danzig) comes in with a picture-perfect sprinter’s pedigree, an almost 18% win trainer in thebandit, and a speed figure two races back tied for the best in this group (97). An oddity here is she seems to race her fastest speeds in routes, although she’s yet to win her first at a mile or better. And she’s got considerable class here too, as she’s had a couple of 2nds and a 3rd in Graded company, although those were also at route distances. Many more questions than answers for this filly, who’s almost as likely to come in 6th here as she is to win it. Some nice handicapping info THERE, huh? Might be a good value at 5/1, but still too many questions for my liking.
My Picks:
1) Silver Designer – Runs down the speed at the end, just edging the other closer…
2) Exquisite Release – Gets close, but no cigar, as she loses by just a bit for the upset.
3) Bongaree – Speed duel up front takes it out of this girl, but she gamely hangs on for a piece.