Smack talk, West Virginia style

MAOL DHOMHNAIGH(IRE) is going to win the $40,000 MAINE DEPUTY MEMORIAL going seven furlongs, and then we’ll be looking from there for a stake going a route.

That’s the plan, anyway.

Truth is, there are a lot of very nice colts in the race here Saturday, and reality is, trepidation fills the air here at the Itch stables. You see, never has this little old outfit had a horse like the Gaelic Charger, and we just don’t want to screw it up. Anybody know the feeling?

I have been trying to protect my colt, even though it doesn’t look like it because he ran on consecutive weeks two and three starts back. After his first race, in which he broke his maiden nicely on the dirt with a nice 88 speed fig running all out, I have been running Mohl Dhomhnaigh on .90 effort-more a workout. He came out of his stakes win three back sharp, so I ran him back the next week on more a workout again, catching a soft, four-horse field for two stake wins in a row, heady territory for this nickle and dime barn that never won a stake before.

Maol Dhomhnaigh (Gaelic for my last name, Maloney) came out of that race a little groggy, as I expected he might. What I didn’t expect was for him to miss the board last week. He dropped right back at the start, and right away I was worried. He was still running on more a work, and I just didn’t think he could come flying fast enough to win from where he was, and he did not, running a disappointing fourth.

So, it’s time to stop screwing around. No more 90 percent effort. On Saturday, we’re going for it. Back to 100 percent effort. Either I am sitting on a keg of dynamite with this colt, or it is time to stop with him. I don’t know. You never know with these Sim horses. It may be that Maol Dhomhnaigh is beginning to regress, as his speed figs would indicate. It may be that I should stop on him.

On the other hand, if I stop, I’ll never know if he could have gone forward from here. How can I not turn up the effort and try again? I never have scored a point in a stake race in the West Virginia Stakes Competition, and time has come to go for it. I hope Maol Dhomhnaigh comes back OK, and I do hope he wins.

Now, let’s see what we’re facing here.

An extremely formidable entry from Bob123g, for starters. As of very early Wednesday morning, Bob’s MR AP CAT BG out of his rgrg stable easily led the entry list with 100 points. Combined with the 50 points of the second-best entry, his HERE’S INDY BG out of his bob7g stable, and their total of 150 is more than the rest of the field combined. That’s of early Wednesday, at this writing. These are the No. 11 and No. 50-ranked dirt sprinting 3yo colts in the Sim.

Now, this preview will not be posted until after instructions are pulled in Thursday night. I am, of course, going to give my true evaluation of the race in this column, and reveal what riding instructions on which I set my horse, and why.

Looking at Bob’s colts, one thing is going to jump off the page for other trainers in here as they look for a glimmer of hope to somehow beat these two that seem to have such a massive class advantage here. That’s what those stakes points amount to: a class rating. The classiest horses go at the top, simple as that. Bob’s horses are way up top all by themselves, and the first impression there is you’re looking at an odds-on entry. Back to the glimmer: Both these horses have run two straight subpar efforts. Also, Bob says neither came up sharp. Both are ready to go only. I guess we’ll have to latch onto that – the hope that these two are over the top. They’d better be. Their class edge is indisputable.

Might we also question their ability to get the seven furlongs, as brotherly suggested on the main message board?

Not with Mr. AP CAT BG, I am not. With the result of the Mr. West Cap last out right here at the Appalachian Spa, it becomes evident that the big horse’s speed may be more effective at 7 as opposed to 6 furlongs. He’s not made the lead in two of this last three going 6, and so probably has a better shot at gaining an early advantage with the extra furlong. Also note that his second-best career speed fig of 93 is at seven furlongs, earned five back.

The lead is not going to be easy to get in this race, however. It’s a 14-horse field, and it’s not completely loaded with frontrunners, but there are five in here with early speed: Mr. AP Cat BG and his entrymate, HERE’S INDY BG, and ON HOLD, MOUNT ST. HELENS and DELIGENCE.

Of those, Derbycity’s ON HOLD looks very scary and handicaps as good as anybody in this race. This son of Hold That Tiger has had the lead in the stretch in three straight stake races, only to be nailed on the wire each time. Even with those narrow defeats, the barn is off to a good 2006, winning two of 10. This is a fast horse in good form who fits at the class. He could mean trouble for the favorite, as he was showing speed in shorter sprints and will want the lead early here.

So, there is no guarantee of a speed duel, as one of them could be the speed of the speed, but trainers of the deep closers in here, and there are plenty, can take some hope that there are multiple speed horses and at least a strong possibility of a hot front end. Of course, some trainers think these Sim races are not affected by pace, but methinks they are.

There are several deep closers in here, several of whom are loaded with potential. Too many for all to get a clear run: RAISE A FORTY, RADIATION RISK, NEW DELIVERY, MAOL DHOMHNAIGH, BLACK AFLEET, FRISBEE HEGONE, ECHOES OF SILVER, JOURNEY TO JUPITER and THAT’S AMORE G all figure to take back off the pace.

I always want my horses, whether Sim or real ones I’ve wagered on, to be running in space. This is the best trip for a horse, I think, to be alone on the track for a good part of the running. The open part of the pace here to me looks like right in the middle. There are five going to the front, and a whole bunch dropping back. I would like for my horse to be about sixth, and making the first move at the leaders. Therefore, I have set my riding instructions for this race at .60-all out. Being as we have S. Kelly and not Jocko in the irons, maybe have a chance of having our plans actually carried out.

And now, some individual comments on horses in qualifying order:

The favorite we’ve already talked about, Mr. AP Cat BG at 7/2 with S. Tate in the irons.

The second half of the entry, Here’s Indy BG, won two stake races as a 2yo, but it’s hard to know what the strategy here is Saturday, as he appears to share the same running style as his barnmate. On the face of it, these two seem to be working against each other here.

Third is Welshwitch’s BLACK AFLEET, perhaps the most potent of the potent closes in here. Draw a line through this one’s last race, that was a bit much to ask, jumping all the way to Grade I and up in distance, too. He’s back with his friends here and at a proven distance. One drawback: cold connections. The jockey is 0-16, and Welshwitch has yet to win a race this year from 13 starts.

The aforementioned On Hold out of the Derbycity barn qualified fourth. Seconditis is not the worst malady a horse ever had when it’s in stakes competition.

Fifth is Calle4’s Journey to Jupiter. This horse hit the board in five straight stake races before finally missing the board last out when jumped up to a Grade 2. He’s back with his friends here, but catches a full field of 14 with some decent runners in it. The jock is cold and he starts way out in post 13.

Sixth is Jocko’s mount, Fishy’s Frisbee Hegone. I don’t know what I am gonna do with that Irish immigrant jockey. I name him first on a horse won two stake races, and he jumps for a horse that has been seventh twice, eighth and fifth in his last four starts. Frisbee Hegone won at the class and distance, but has followed that stake win with these four dull efforts. Needs to turn it around. Good luck with that drunken jockey.

Our horse qualified seventh, being as he’s earned most of his stakes points on the turf. He runs good on both. The drinks at the trackside bar are on me after the 10th race Saturday.

Isitingood’s MOUNT ST. HELENS is eighth. This son of E Dubai gets a crack at stakes competition off a front-running score in a 6f allowance sprint in which he scored a nice big 93 speed fig, impressing Isitingood to the point that he jumps in class. The decision must be respected, as the barn is off to a hot start this year, winning four from 15 starts for 26.7 percent, with a stake win. Just for fun, draw a line in every race in his form going a mile or longer, and we have a potent sprinter here. Can he handle the jump in class?

Next is Ts1442’s DELIGENCE out of his julie barn. This horse rebounded nicely from a sixth place finish in the Quicky One run here 2741 with a cruising allowance score at today’s distance. In fact, Deligence has won two in a row at 7f, with very good speed figs of 90 and 88. Ability at the special distance of 7f could carry him a long way. He’ll need some improvement, having been sixth in each of his three career stake tries.

Tenth is Wassie’s THAT’S AMORE G out of his dgdg stable. This one is still eligible for N2L, but makes his fourth straight stakes start for the points-hungry Wassie, who is looking for his third straight West Virginia Stakes Competition title and could not do without a shot at his brother’s big entry here. By no means is this son of Mining misplaced too bad here, as he was third in a stake three back, and was not horribly embarrassed in his last two despite missing the board. He starts widest of 14 which is no bargain, though.

NEW DELIVERY out of the wb11 barn is 11th, and is an interesting horse because usually you don’t see a horse this far down the qualifying list have nearly the best speed fig in Sinoboy’s entry checker. His 94.8 nearly matches Mr. AP Cat BG’s 95.1, so that makes this horse dangerous right there. He’s capable of running very fast. What a claim this one would have been two back, when he went untouched for a $50,000 tag. He won that day and followed it up with an N1X score this distance in Iowa. Can he run that big fig in a stakes race?

ECHOES OF SILVER is another interesting up-and-coming lightly raced horse in 11th qualifying spot. This is only his fourth career start, and he’s been closing like a freight train at 6.5 furlongs. This son of Silver Ghost could not be loaded with more potential and could be any kind. At 20-1, Charlie Hoops the Drunken Morning Line Oddsmaker is asleep at the switch. This horse should be included in any trifecta tickets at that big number.

Thirteenth qualifer is the second half of the Ts 1442 entry in RAISE A FORTY out of his south40 barn. Starting down on the rail at a juicy 16-1, this horse has been second twice in turf stakes. On the down side, this horse has been eighth in his last two stake tries on dirt, and gets stuck with the very cold jockey in the 0-20 J. Hash.

Finally, we have the favorite of the girls in the trackside bar, Nextbonus‘ RADIATION RISK out of his empirez barn. This would be a heck of a way for this outfit to get its first win of 2006, and they’ve yet to get their picture taken in 14 starts. The horse is lightly raced, making only his fourth career start here, and did break his maiden at the distance while drawing away to a good 86 speed fig. Not impossible as the longest shot on the board.

GOOD LUCK EVERYBODY!!!