Pick a winner, and you get paid
By ITCH First thing you notice about the one-mile, $80,000 DIVING INTO SEA MEMORIAL for 3yos this week in Illinois is how evenly matched the field is. The favorite, THUNDER ALEX out of the Jdfarms stable, is a tepid 9-2, only slightly ahead of four other horses who are 5-1. Only one horse in the field is listed at double digit odds. Leading to the evenly-matched nature of this field is the fact that none of the contenders have more than 20 stakes points. Only two of the nine have won a stake so far. None are multiple stakes winners. So, can you pick a winner? If you can, you’ll get paid more than 10 bucks. I guarantee you. As always, we like to review entrants in stakes races in order of entry value. At the top with 20 points is VICENICETWICE out of the 11putts stable, which has only two horses in it. This son of Valid Expectations has been very consistenet in his seven career starts, hitting the exacta in six of his seven starts, all of which have been on the dirt. Particularly boosting to his chances is the fact that his best race so far was at this exact distance at class, two back in a non-graded stake going a mile. He was beaten only a length that day, made all the more impressive by the fact it came in a full field of 14. From there, he went all the way up to a Grade 1, running ninth in the Blue Ant Handicap. Sure, he was ninth, but look at his lengths behind in that race. He was six behind at the second call, and six behind at the wire. That means he was keeping up with the leader of a Grade I race, maybe more impressive than his two second-place finishes in non-graded events. With the red-hot P. Munoz (32 percent winners so far this year) in the saddle, there is no reason to suspect this colt won’t have a big say in the outcome. Second is Glendowr’s ROAD TO ISENGARD. Now, on the subject of this son of Albert the Great, we could discuss our feelings of joy or surprise at seeing Master Meriodoc, son of Saradoc and his sleeping companion Peregrin, son of Paladin, as door wardens at Isengard. Or, we could discuss the happy banter that ensues upon the hunters reunited with the two lost hobbits, or even study the intricacies of fine Pipe weed. But, this is no Lord of the Rings discussion board. This is a horseracing Sim. We would rather talk about the fact that Road to Isengard is the highest earner in this field, with $200,000 in the bank already in only seven starts. That class edge is mitigated somewhat by a lack of an edge on form, however. RTI, the son of a Grade D Sim mare King’s Highway (who hit the board in 13 stakes races and topped the 110 speed fig barrier seven times), has regressed in his last two after looking like the sky was the limit in his fourth and fifth starts, when he won his first-ever stakes try and then stretched out to capture an owner-restricted stake with 20 horses in it. Owner restricted or no, that’s an impressive win to beat so many horses. Those two may have taken some out of the colt, however, as he’s been 12th and seventh in his last two. The Grade 2 two back was too tough, and we’re willing to forgive there, but the dull effort last out in non-graded competition is a worry. This is not the toughest field in the world here, and Glendowr has found a likely spot to get back on the Road to Isengard. (How was that? Are we even, Tequila? Youdaman.) Peeps9’s IRISHEYESARECRYING. Now, when Irish eyes are smiling, sure it’s like a morning spring. In the lilt of Irish laughter, you can hear the angels sing. When Irisheyesarecrying, we have a late-running son of Point Given who looks like he could be any kind. After closing from 13th to win his maiden going away in California, he shipped to the Fabulous Bull Ring in Michigan last out and showed the same kind of move, rolling up from last of nine to be second to MASCOTTE VICI, a nice colt who is ranked No. 33 in the classic division. Irisheyesarecrying already is ranked No. 221 after only three races, and certainly looks like he’s on his way up. In fact, with his breeding and running style, you could see this horse take a step toward the Derby trail on Saturday, which will be a big thrill for the classy new barn Peeps9, which has yet to make 100 starts but had four stake winners in 2005 and an impressive $750,000 in earnings with only 11 winners. (The No. 20-ranked turf 3yo, SKILLS IN MAGIC, had a lot to do with that.) If you can see Irisheyesarecrying in the race viewer turning for home, he’s got a big shot here. For sure, the 9-1 is ridiculous. He’s got a lot better chance than that. Fourth is Sam’s RAINBOW PHYL. This son of Rainbow Quest also has a big kick at the end, and it will be interesting to see where he is in the race compared to Irisheyesarecrying. Methinks they’re going to be together, and when one moves, the other will, too. We’ll see who is fastest at that point. Rainbow Phyl already has proven himself a versatile runner in only six career starts, having won two races on the turf. Last out, Sam switched him to the dirt, and the mighty Rainbow almost knocked him down (that’s a ref. to a Bruce Hornsby tune, in case anyone’s wondering), finishing second and earning a better speed fig than he ever did on turf. Now, a lot of that might be natural progression as he gets bigger and better, and you can’t say for sure that dirt is his preferred surface. Makes sense to try it again here, though, as with his late running style, he, too, could be a stayer worthy of Derby Trail consideration. Sam is a very successful Sim veteran, with 155 wins for the career, and taking down a whopping 19 allowance victories in 2005 from a total of 27 wins at a proper strike rate of 17.3 percent. There’s a lot to like about this horse. He and Irish could come running at the end as a team and finish 1-2. Now we’re to UDDER BRILLIANCE from the Mike7farms. The name makes us think of the cow out in Missouri who jumped the fence at the slaughterhouse, broke through another fence, ran down the highway and swam down the river. Actually, it’s all about establishing some stakes form for this son of Johannesburg. He makes his second start back off a layoff here after fading to 10th in his only stake try. So, a handicapper is going to have to knock him a bit on class in that he’s very unproven in stakes competition, while others in here have won and placed in stakes already. That being said, the horse did run a nice 90 speed fig last out, and at the distance. In fact, he’s playing his game here Saturday, having started four straight races at a mile on the dirt. Unfortunately, his chances are compromised by the next horse we’re going to talk about, Thunder Alex, a confirmed speed ball. Udder Brilliance has run his best races on the lead, and it just doesn’t look available to him here Saturday. He’s going to have to find a new dimension. With both pace and class disadvantages, this one looks to be in a tough spot, as was the Missouri cow, who ultimately was captured and taken back to the slaughterhouse. That brave girl didn’t have the help of Mike7farms, though, a shrewd trainer who took down 32 races last year and hit them at a fat 18.8 percent. As they say in the country, that’ll get her done. It only took five points to qualify sixth for this race, where we finally find the favorite, the aforementioned THUNDER ALEX. Now, right away we know we have a strong possibility of a vulnerable favorite because he’s got five horses qualified ahead of him here. I’d say it’s very unusual to see a sixth-place qualifier favored in any stakes race. Maybe the morning line oddsmaker in Chicago likes early speed types, and that’s definitely what you have here. This son of Thunder Gulch never has failed to make the lead in five career starts, and opened up by 3 lengths last out before fading to fifth in the lane in a Kentucky stake. In fact, Thunder Alex has been ahead at the head of the lane in all five of his races, too. The question is whether he can stay there, and if any of the classy closers get near him in the lane Saturday, he’ll have a hard time holding them off. Sangraal’s CALICO JACK checks in seventh. Another son of Point Given, this one ships here off two decent races in Kentucky which seemed to at least confirm his ability to get the route distance. He was third last out in a non-graded stake going 8.5 furlongs. He looks to get a nice stalking trip in this race, fitting in nicely behind the speedball and the deep closers. With competitive speed figures, nice breeding and a hot rider in S. Johnson, it makes sense that we could see this one sit a nice trip and make the first move on the leader turning for home. Just one or two steps forward and he’s going to be co-starring in this fairly new stable with the nice filly CAZADORA. Our penultimate qualifier is GEORGIA RAIN out of the Simsters8 barn. This one exits the same Kentucky stake as Calico Jack. He got beat by that one, fifth to his third. So, that’s a knock right away, in that he finished behind a horse we don’t necessarily like in the top spot here. It’s gonna take some kind of convincing to put this one on the ticket. Let’s see. He’s by Unbridled’s Song, and that’s always a good thing in our book. He also broke his maiden at this distance, which is another plus. His closing style gives him a chance to sit a good trip. Maybe, maybe not. Just because we don’t like the horse doesn’t mean he can’t win. Finally, we have LOUIS ROCK(FR) out of the attack stable. This one hasn’t done anything wrong in three career starts, winning two and placing in another. He handled the stretchout to a mile last out nicely, thank you very much, checking in 2nd in a Kentucky N3L allowance for his first career defeat. He finished a length and three quarters behind Udder Brillance in that one. That’s not necessarily a compliment as Udder Brilliance has not yet proven himself stakes worthy. It’s tempting at 14-1, and I normally adhere to the philosophy of a long price in a short field, but we’re going to watch one with this colt in stakes competition before a hearty endorsement. In conclusion, this was a cool race to cover because there are a few in here who may end up on the Derby trail. As far as a wager, give us a jingle in the win pool on Irisheyesarecrying at a seriously overlaid 9-1. Good luck to all!!!!!