Sunday in Kentucky: Naughty Baroness Headlines Jenny (G3) Field
Eight distaffers go to post Sunday afternoon in The Wiley Jenny (G3) in Kentucky at a mile and a sixteenth. The field from the rail out:
#1 Whiskytangofoxtrot (11/1) is a four year-old win machine by Encosta De Lago out of star broodmare The Dancing Dame. ‘Dame (Kingmambo x Nijinsky II) has thrown four stakes winners including Two To Tango (Cozzene), a winner of nearly three-quarters of a million dollars who was a runner-up in Grade 1 company over 1 1/2 miles in 2004. ‘Whisky’ has a chance to be the best of them yet and perhaps her dam’s first graded stakes winner. With six wins out of eleven races, including three stakes wins and a near-miss third in Grade 2 company in dirt routes, this mid-pack puncher has every chance in here. SPs of 108 and 110 in her last two indicate she is on the upward trend. A must-use in exotics.
#2 Ghost Sense (10/1) (Ghostzapper x Silver Charm) burst onto the stakes scene six months ago with a powerful win at this distance in Indiana (SP 110) and hasn’t looked back, placing in two other stakes races since. This is her best distance and notice the patient way she’s been handled of late… while many trainers would have pressed on after the big effort, breeder-trainer viviere has ensured that this four year-old has been able to slowly build back up to her best, as she’s run just four times in the six months since. She should be razor-sharp for this one and she begins her Spring 2013 campaign in earnest and finds a reasonable spot to make her graded stakes debut. Hard to knock.
#3 Broken Barricades (3/1) is the second-favorite in here and, unlike a few in this field, is a graded stakes pro. The Cape Cross five year-old has three graded stakes wins on her resume – two at this distance – and will be charging hard late. Still, it appears that she is cycling out of her top form… after three 110+ speed figs in a row in October-December 2012, she followed that up with a 106 and a 101 in her last two. Her last, in Arkansas, was very dull at short odds. Need only run back to her top to win this – and this is her preferred distance – but at this price I’m watching one.
#4 Appeasement (5/1) is a Giant’s Causeway x Mr. Prospector x Seattle Slew scratch-bred, so of course she’s a runner. The question here is not her ability – she’s a winner of $283k who was third in G3 company in October – but rather her running style and her need for distance. While Appeasement has eight career wins, she’s only won twice going this distance or shorter. Even as a juvenile this deep closer sought out nine panel routes. She’s never beaten anything like this field going less than 1 1/8 miles and I have to think that she’s going to need to stretch even beyond her prefer classic distance of a 1 1/4 to compete at this level. Make no mistake, this late runner will be picking them off in the stretch, and she’s a lock to win the gallop-out. But I’d be looking for her down the road going longer, up to 12f.
#5 Naughty Baroness (5/2) is a Grade 3 winner of nearly $600,000. By Danehill Dancer, this five year-old has an impressive recent track record. Let us throw out her Breeders’ Bowl foible and focus on her last four races, all at 1 1/16 miles: two wins, one a Grade 3, four SPs between 111 and 114. Those are winning performances here and she’s the choice in this field. Her versatile style and her love for the distance only adds to the allure.
#6 Alyremus (5/1) is the only entry in here who has not either won a stakes race or placed in graded company, yes she’s only 5-1 coming off two big figs. Those (111 and 109) were going shorter, however, and against lesser company. The Malibu Moon 4yo always puts in a good effort, loves the Kentucky surface (three of her five wins have come on this track), and has tactical speed. But does she have the class to beat these? Dicey.
#7 Terminal Velocity (7/1) is the only Grade 1 winner in the field. This 5yo Awesome Again mare was a superstar as a juvenile and sophomore, and her early career bears a recap. She won her debut in Vermont at 9/5 odds on August 14, 2010. She returned six weeks later to trounce eight foes in an entry-level allowance in Vermont before annexing two minor stakes at route distances in Autumn 2010. While she debuted too late to enter the big stakes races of her juvenile season, she went 4-for-4 on the campaign. She made her graded stakes debut in February 2011, winning the Grade 3 SilverBulletBeer in Louisiana at this distance before taking the prestigious California Oaks (G1) in her next start. After a good fourth against boys in the Florida Derby, the young star fell on hard times as she struggled to adjust to longer distances. Fourth in the Bluegrass Oaks (G1) was certainly no disgrace, but she flopped in six graded attempts thereafter in 2011. After rebuilding herself and her confidence in the allowance ranks, ‘Velocity’ returned to graded company to run second in a G1 here last October and has been nibbling ever since. Recent speed figures indicate that this deep, deep closer should be competitive but I cannot recommend her on top. A good mare to be sure, but her reputation will likely make her an underlay for life.
#8 Brewfest (5/1) is criminally-underlaid at 5-1 in here. The Point Given mare has never won a stakes race and that third in a G2 over an off track a year ago is looking a bit like a mirage. Still, yet another closer in here with a shot on speed figures, Brewfest is honest as the day is long (29-11-4-5 record for $345k). That’s a lot of wins to ignore, but this one came into last year’s renewal of this same race with all the same factors going for her and she could only muster sixth place at the same odds as are offered today. A nice mare but I think she’s out of her depth here.
Selections: #5 Naughty Baroness is the real deal and would be a bet for me at 6/5 or better. #1 Whiskytangofoxtrot is the second most likely winner and her tactical speed and versatility give her every chance in a field without a lot of pace. On her current form she undoubtedly belongs in here. #2 Ghost Sense has been expertly handled and it feels like she may be sitting on her best yet. #4 Appeasement will be grinding away late.