Arkansas “Derby Lock” Preview
It’s Arkansas Derby time!
This is one of the last of the “Derby Lock” races for 2013, and it carries a million-dollar purse and a Grade 1 title. A full field of 14 3yo hopefuls will enter the gate in hopes of gathering all that booty and the Derby trip. As to be expected, lots of quality abounds:
SWAG DADDY is a Scat Daddy colt whose career seemed to be well on the way to nowhere until he celebrated his return to dirt racing with an impressive win in a minor stakes, beating his previous-best speed rating by 21 points in the process. The kroth3 trainee takes a shot at the moon here, and gets 26/1 odds from a skeptical CPU.
IN OFFICE has truly done nothing wrong in his 6-race career; he’s posed for pics in the winner’s circle after every one of them. Still, the Blame colt gets rather longish 11/1 odds despite the fact that the last win was a graded stakes. The only thing this writer can think of regarding the price is that the colt hasn’t exactly broken stopwatches in many of those wins. “Winnin’ is winnin'”, trainer sprinter2 says. “Let’ em try and beat us; he’ll run faster when he needs to…”
RED HARVEST also comes in at 11/1, and needs to prove that his rough run in his only graded stakes was just a fluke. Before that, the Encosta De Lago colt hadn’t missed the board on dirt and the gradetwo trainee beat a Grade 1 winner two starts back, so maybe, just maybe…
ICH TU DIR WEH has two wins in his two 2013 starts, his only dirt efforts. While the Monsun colt didn’t break into three-digit territory with the wins, they appear to have been accomplished in the easiest fashion possible. There will be a huge music event featuring Rammstein at the vor headquarters should this guy pull off a 15/1 win.
LOL LOL had the 123stud stables laughing all the way to the bank last time out, as he ran off with a minor stakes in solid time. The Distorted Humor colt comes back in just three weeks for this shot at the bigtime, and he gets 8/1 odds. He’s only had one lackluster effort in his nine runs, so he figures to compete well here.
KING COCONUT closed strongly to be closest to IN OFFICE last time out and gets 11/1 odds for this run. Trained by bmr001, this King Kamehameha colt is on the improve and could very well like the added distance here.
ELLO GUVNOR goes off at 15/1 for the wilk barn. While the Dynaformer colt has shown he likes 2-turn racing, he hasn’t yet shown the level of game needed to score against top runners at this point. While anything is possible in races with young, talented horses, this looks like a bit of a reach.
EVIL SUNRISE has looked every bit a champion thus far in 2013, and goes off the 5/1 favorite. The Pivotal colt comes from a high-producing stakes-winning Sim mare and keeps the same rider who rode him to his dominant victory here three weeks ago. From the fairhaven5 barn, this appears to be the one to beat.
COLORS OF DUBAWI has loads of speed, but today’s distance might be a bit out of his range against high-level competition. The Dubawi colt is trained by lk2007 and gets 8/1 CPU respect, mostly due to his having hung on for part in two of three graded tries.
CHANCE OF STORMS just raced two weeks ago in the G1 Sand Castle Derby at Dubai. “He hated the mud at Dubai and didn’t even try; the jock might as well have jumped off him out the gate. He deserves a better shot at the Derby than that.”, says trainer blankpoin9. If you toss that last race out, this Empire Maker colt has a great shot at this and gets 6/1 odds.
DRUNKEN DRAMA was impressive in his 2-turn debut last time out, drawing off to win a minor stakes by daylight for monmouth stables. The Big Drama colt goes off at 13/1 here, reflecting the fact that he’ll need a good bit better to scratch the surface with this bunch.
GIMLET NEAT is a bit of a puzzle. Sometimes the Tanino Gimlet colt looks as if he’s on the way to superstardom, sometimes he throws an ugly effort, such as the late fade in his last. Before that, the digginin trainee charged from well bago to win the Grade 2 Legoland. Goes off at 13/1 here; which of the two personalities will show up today?
BERNARDORO takes his second shot at a Derby Lock race, just two weeks after an abject failure in the All Saints Derby. The Bernardini colt goes off at 13/1 for italst3 and will need to have a much better day to get much done in this field.
TEA MASTER closed stoutly to be closest to Corkscrew Stakes contender Lonhro’s Impact last time in the Grade 2 Felipe Alou Stakes at a sixteenth shorter and gets the same rider here at 6/1. Was that one an indicator of improvement for the smurf trainee, or a bit of a fluke? The Awesome Again colt will be very tough with another top effort.
Okay, it’s time to get busy with the ol’ crystal ball…
I’m gonna pick TEA MASTER here; that extra sixteenth looks inviting despite the fact he flattened out a little at the distance a couple starts ago.
IN OFFICE should be right in there; I’ve got him for 2nd.
CHANCE OF STORMS could bounce back nicely on the fast stuff.
Good luck to all!