2012 Breeders Bowl Juvenile Fillies: My Sister’s Shadow

Here we are, again.

I’m not at all certain that I’m welcoming one and all to this year’s running of the Grade I, $2,000,000 Breeders Bowl Juvenile Fillies. No doubt it’s an exciting race, possibly a Bluegrass Oaks preview, potentially showing off a fine future crop of three-year-old fillies next year. But I had a filly in this race last year, the favorite, Tolleson…and what could have been a crowning achievement turned into my worst Sim nightmare when my jockey, one D Givins, went off the reservation on his own accord.

It’s been a year, and you’ve undoubtedly heard the story by now. Tolleson had won the 2011 Getaway Stakes and the Grade I Frickazee Stakes, and was second choice to eventual winner Street Etiquette in the Juvenile Fillies, and I was savoring the chances at pulling off the biggest win of my Sim playing days in a big-time race, a race to make a career upon. I had a hot horse, and a hot hand in Givins, Kentucky’s top jockey. What could go wrong?

EVERYdamnlittleTHING, as it happened. D Givins disregarded his instructions, took the filly to the lead despite instructions asking him to rate mid-pack, and she faded after a half-mile to eleventh. It cost her a shot at an Eclipse Award, and me a shot at respectability. And since I wear my heart on my sleeve in the Sim like a tattoo, there was hardly a soul who did not hear about it from me. But things change. Tolleson actually carved out a respectable season, and has turned into a blazing-hot sprinter hoping to get a shot at redemption in the Breeders Bowl Filly & Mare Sprint….with D Givins back on board (which was not my idea, but it’s how the jockey bounces these days). So, I can’t afford to be too bitter.

Besides, as it turned out, this crop of three-year-olds might possibly be the best filly crop to have existed in the Sim. Street Etiquette won this race a year ago, and went on to beat the boys in the All Saints Derby, a Derby-lock prep for the Bluegrass Derby, where she was favored over the colts, but finished ninth. Final Exit was third here a year ago, but actually beat the boys in the Middle Jewel, the second leg of the Sim Triple Crown, and has turned into one of the favorites for divisional honors, and the two of them will meet again in the Breeders Bowl Distaff. In fact, the whole race produced a slew of strong fillies. Estrada ran second here last year, and won the Grade I Los Vinegrette. Grim Batol won the Grade I Players Club National Oaks last time out in July. Elusive Maam has turned into a solid long sprinter, winning the Grade II Quote The Raven last weekend. Vicenza has also become a talented sprinter, winning the Grade III Priority Princess Stakes this spring. And, to be fair, Tolleson is a four-time graded winner this year herself, most recently in a pair of Grade III sprints, the Iodine against older, and the Kept Safely against three-year-olds (including division-leading sprinter Legal Embrace), leading up to her Breeders Bowl Filly & Mare Sprint try. This year’s Breeders Bowl Juvenile Fillies field has a lot to live up to after what last year’s crop of fillies accomplished this season overall.

Here’s the field for the race:

Ron The Beast [Quiet American-Fortune’s Forest Fox, by Forestry, trained by graywolf for graywolf6] (13-1)
This filly has the pedigree suggesting a mile and a sixteenth is just barely in her scope, being by the fine miler Quiet American, but this is her first route attempt. A late closer who won the Grade I Dell Computer Debutante last out, she has the ability to make a final charge from the back, and her speed figures hold up reasonably well among these. She keeps her jock for the third start in a row, which should help her, but her issue is with the class test, as this marks only her second graded stakes, and her first over a mile. Plus, of this bunch, she has only beaten Clipped Heels, in the Debutante last out, and finished behind King Of Stupid and Miniminus in her only other graded start, the Grade III Sorgento two back. Also working against her is the lack of a contested early pace, with not a lot of speedsters expecting to battle it out on the front end here, so she may have to rely on a little racing luck to carry her through; she and Clipped Heels have been off the longest, since September 9, training up to this race.

Rowling [Tiznow-Khartoum XI, by Sadler’s Wells, trained by lasthope for dixiedotco] (9-1)
Picked up for $125,000 from her breeder and original connections, coming from the House of Lenny, this filly earned her way into this field based on one start for her new connections, a third in the Grade I Darley on October 7. Prior to that, she had gone unbeaten in three starts, culminating in a win by a head at a mile. That she wound up here in such a roundabout fashion is a little mystifying considering her breeding is all class, by Tiznow out of a Grade I-winning millionaire, and that $125K seems to be a mighty steal, but here she is, and she’s still pretty fair, although the odds still seem to be so low because of her class pedigree as opposed to anything tangible on the track. Now, the interesting thing is that her first three starts were all won from hanging out in mid-pack and then closing late, but she would up closing from deep in the pack and just picked up the pieces for third in the Darley behind winner A State Of Mind and fast pacesetter Grand Disturbance (who should repeat that role here). As already mentioned, her tactics did not match what she had been able to do previously at this distance, and it adversely affected her from having to close from so far back against such great, unbridled speed—the Darley speed figure was just an 82, lower from her best number and near the bottom of the list of best last-out speed figures—so she will likely need to be closer to the pace than recently normal to prevent another start in which she is just the best of the rest.

Great Disturbance [Empire Maker-Peeples, by Danzig, trained by peeps3 for padrebri] (9-1)
She was a runaway pacesetter in the Darley last out, opening up by more than 7 through an opening half-mile of 47.83 before tiring significantly while holding on for second behind A State Of Mind, beaten by a head. The pace scenario here favors a repeat of that effort, because there are few sources of out-and-out speed here to challenge her into more reasonable early fractions. She is here solely on the basis of that second-place finish, her graded debut, and figures into the mix because she does dare her opponents to chase her down, and in a paceless race, that is not to be underestimated. However, though the morning line does place her among the favorites, her downside is that the speed has been a detriment to her, having just a maiden win to her credit. She’s proved herself to be capable enough to run at this level, but she is pretty much one-dimensional, which isn’t so much a put-down as it is an acknowledgment that her siblings are more or less all speed-favoring types, preferring sprints to routes on the whole. She is almost certain to take them as far as she can as fast as she wants, but the question here is if she has the stamina to hold off the closers on her own at a mile and a sixteenth, a question so far answered in one race as a “no”.

Quartz Way [Here Comes Ben-Diamond Heights, by Gone West, trained by socalman for dixiedotco] (20-1)
She’s another filly who can hang her qualifications on one great effort, in her case a Grade III win last out in the Race Series for Platero. There, she showed some late courage in holding off Four Of Two at a mile, though the effort nor the competition appeared at first glance to be particularly imposing. She has quite a bit of graded experience, including a tenth in the Grade I Equinics where she was just beaten five lengths behind Capone And Luciano, and a sixth in the Grade II Stoker in June behind Clipped Heels, Capone And Luciano and Misty Melody, where she was just beaten by 5. The experience is there in graded stakes, but this is by far the best field she’s faced to date, and even if the results were fair and helpful in her development, this is a considerable step up in class versus the division’s top flight of horses. Her 83 last out is a low LTO speed figure in here, and while she has top-class breeding, being a half-sister to Grade I winner Noe Valley, her pedigree strongly suggests more sprints might be in her future. Expect her to sit near the back to try and make a late kick work for her.

Stonecrab Bay [Blame-Isle of Pigs, by Point Given, trained by lopo87 for given] (9-1)
This filly seems to have bounced into form overnight, winning the Grade III Margarine Stakes on October 6 with such authority that her career-best speed figure improved overnight from the 78 she earned in her debut to a 98 for the stakes win in her graded debut. That race was a textbook example of using a strong, contested pace to your advantage and winning narrowly, nabbing Wild In The Street at the wire. That 98 is by far the strongest speed figure of the bunch, but naturally there’s a little healthy skepticism about whether a sudden 25-point speed figure leap (up from a 73 two back) is a bounce or a sign of inherent ability peaking at the right moment. The feeling here, though, is that it’s an honest development, because while the field she beat might not have been anything terribly impressive, the fractions she chased down (:22.90, :46.34, 1:10.55) were strong ones for a young graded field, and that gain is in line with her past performances; she has now won four in a row, and three of those races were at a mile or over, and the previous two wins came with complete control over her opposition. This half to Grade II winner Redwyne Strait clearly has more distance to conquer, according to her pedigree, and seems to be coming into this in the proper fashion; a repeat of her last may find her taking a big step towards a division title…proved this isn’t a bounce situation.

Capone And Luciano [Hussonet-A.P. Dolphin, by A.P. Indy, trained by rencapone] (10-1)
She’s been off since an up-the-track finish in the Grade I Getaway on September 9, but she won the Equinics two back against a solid field which included Quartz Way. Now, the Equinics provided her with her best career speed figure of 88, rallying from off the pace to just get up by a long neck. But her middling effort in the Getaway negated that performance, netting her the lowest last-out speed figure here, of a 78. She’s been off the grid since then, probably with cause, but this will mark her first try beyond seven furlongs, and that is significant because most winners of this races usually have a start at a mile or over by this point. Her pedigree is such that it can suggest a mile is in her wheelhouse, and yet there’s also the nagging issue of surface, because her sire is better-known in Australia for progeny success on the grass. She is unbeaten in just one try there, but by appearances dirt seems to be her choice; nevertheless, there is a lot of uncertainty here for a filly coming off an extended break following a uneven effort in a Grade I that raises some eyebrows. This race could hold the future for this filly, but between the layoff and her nagging questions about fitness, distance and class (the Equinics field she beat was fairly good at that time, but just how good won’t be known still for some time), there’s going to be a lot she’ll need to answer for in this spot, something her solid, workmanlike late kick might not be enough to satisfy.

Misty Melody [Speightstown x Danzig, trained by jmsstable for baggio] (12-1)
She’s 0-for-1 trying to carry a sprinter’s pedigree beyond a mile, though a second in the Grade I Walnut Tree against the likes of winner Chai Lai Angels and Grand Concourse is nothing to take lightly; she closed deeply and well for a strong second chasing some rather lax fractions. It netted her a contentious speed figure of 90 for her efforts, and it’s that career topper that seems to sit her well for this race. She is, however, a deep closer, one who prefers to watch the pace set up from afar. Here, she could be a considerable distance from the front end, and with little fight expected on the lead, she might be at the mercy of a loose-on-the-lead type like Great Disturbance. More importantly, though, would appear to be her pedigree; while we know that Speightstown and Danzig both were able to produce solid performers at a variety of distances, their primary claims to fame have been sprinter-types. She’s a Grade III winner at seven and a half furlongs, and a fair graded-placed one at this distance over this track, but there have been many a filly in the Sim who show similar capabilities at sprints and good efforts at longer who just haven’t been able to seal the deal at crunch time going long. Tactically, she’ll be at others’ mercies here, but if long sprints appeal to her, an extra eighth beyond that at this stage might still hold some appeal in a field that has had not a great deal of success at this distance.

House Of Tricks [Falbrav-House Of Games, by Unbridled’s Song, trained by wistful for super1] (10-1)
This one’s just like Stonecrab Bay in one regard: she’s also 3-for-3 at a mile or longer, and her last race also was a graded win, this time in the Grade II Camlaw in the Czech Republic on October 6. It’s not a road oft traveled to the Breeders Bowl, but she closed well against reasonable fractions to capture the stakes by less than a length, and the speed figure of 91 earned her places her in the mix. Since switching to the dirt in June, she’s 3-for-4, and those races at a mile or longer have been particularly impressive, winning the first two tries comfortably before sealing away with the Camlaw, and that kind of development is a positive trend to look for when anticipating a championship showdown like the Breeders Bowl has a tendency to be. And what’s more, her tactics seem to be malleable enough to adapt to whatever pace scenario she spots. Her pedigree might be slanted a little bit more for speed, but with her sire showing affinity for distance, it might have been just enough to give her the right mix to appreciate middle distances. The downside? This is by far the best field she’ll have faced to date, and that test for class on the big stage might be a little too daunting first time around.

A State Of Mind [Tapit x Storm Cat, trained by supapogs6 for pogook] (10-1)
She’s “only” 2-for-3 at these middle distances so far, but she does have what the other experienced routers her do not, and that is two graded stakes tries in the mix. Sixth in her first try, the Grade III Pea Patch Juvenile, she rebounded big time to score a gritty come-from-behind win by a head over a loose-on-the-lead Great Disturbance in the Grade I Darley, who did open up 7 on the field approaching the stretch run but who also tired badly near the wire. She seems to be getting better at being a far-back stretch threat who has just enough momentum for the victory, and this race shapes up to be requiring a similar run. The question is, with “only” four weeks rest, is she fit for a repeat? Certainly, her pedigree says she should appreciate more ground, and while the speed figure doesn’t appear to be terribly imposing, it’s still near the top of the list, and four starts ties with Rowling and King Of Stupid for the fewest races under the belt of any member of the field. There’s still room to grow, it would appear, and such a Herculean effort to chase down uncontested speed can be read either way, as a sign of significant growth or supreme effort that might cost a horse some short-term stamina. The preference in this corner is to view it more as a positive than a negative, but she’ll need to be fit and ready for a rematch should a similar scenario develop.

Fusionist [Speightstown x Distorted Humor, trained by royalchoc for toral] (12-1)
She’s a little bit of an enigma: she’s been off since September 9, and yet she comes in off a win in the Grade I Getaway over some pretty solid sprinters, and she approaches her first time at a mile or over with a career-high figure of 90 to improve upon, which is solid ground. She has graded experience to draw on beyond the Getaway, with a second in the Grade II Hoserhead Juvenile Fillies (behind Clipped Heels), and a deceptively solid sixth in her graded debut, the Grade III, four and a half-furlong Unusual Circumstances, which only earned her a 64 but did keep her within three lengths of the winner at a short distance. She has improved in each race since then, and gains two months rest on top of that to help her focus on her first graded route. Like Misty Melody, she is by Speightstown, who is known for sprinter prodigies in general than for classic contenders, but she adds quite a bit of stamina within her female family that frankly suits her a little bit better for stretching out. Where she becomes an enigma is tactically, because most of her races show her as providing stalking pressure to an early pace, with a good middle move to follow, and this race has an opening for pressuring types against Great Disturbance. The question becomes one of “How close might she be, and could she give some influence to the pace, or will she just sit and wait?” With improving speed figures each of her last three starts, it’s a good question; the answer is forthcoming.

Grand Concourse [Street Cry-Grand Concourse, by Giant’s Causeway, trained by super19 for super1] (8-1)
This regally-bred half-sister to the graded-placed Funky Broadway only entered the graded ranks herself last time out, when she ran an even third in the Grade I Walnut Tree, picking up an 85 speed figure while sitting in a stalking role. She could also, like Fusionist, could move into a pace role and wait and hope to give some pressure to Great Disturbance, but unlike Fusionist, whose distance credentials via her pedigree leave room for interpretation, this filly is absolutely bred to handle stretching out in the middle distances, and possibly beyond. She already has an easy allowance win at a mile, and seems ready to take another step forward here, but she might be just a little further behind a learning curve than others here, if only because of a lack of winning experience routing at a higher level. Depending on her chosen tactics, this race might be an excellent primer moving forward; still, a lot depends on how the race unfolds tactically, and a wildcard in here could be this filly being bred not just for routing, but also possibly for the grass, which she has yet to try. This a filly with a lot of upside, but the gut feeling is that she is still developing her form at this level.

Miniminus [Dansili x Scirocco, trained by sixesplus] (11-1)
She trots to the beat of her own drummer, coming to the Juvenile Fillies by way of Chicago (the Grade III Chicago-DC Lassie, to be precise), the only one here to do so. And while no one will mistake that field for the second comings of Genuine Risk, Zenyatta and Moccasin, being a Grade III field, she is the only one to have won her last prep with “authority”, which in this case amounts to a two-length professional-style win. It was the largest margin of victory in the field of any final Juvenile Fillies prep race, and while again her opposition featured no household names, it produced a strong speed figure of 92, it was professional, the time was strong for this year’s juveniles, and it positioned her as perhaps being a threat in this race. She, too, prefers to sit in a stalker’s role, and again, in the absence of contentious pressure up front, she could opt to hang close and be a threat near the lead. Now, the pedigree is strictly turf-meant, though her initial start on grass did not indicate anything special, but the odds are she may still have a preference for the turf inside of her, particularly as the distances get longer and longer. That’s not to say she can’t still win this race and become a threat on the dirt in the division, but with the Sim and its quirks, she may just bloom on it later. It doesn’t close the door on dirt ability, but it might hint that the Chicago-DC Lassie was more a fluke than it appears. Nevertheless, that is pure speculation; the evidence on its face suggests she is a dark horse among these fillies who has yet to prove her worth because of who she has, or hasn’t faced. Consider her potential at a price.

King Of Stupid [Dynaformer-Mama Forty, by Forty Niner, trained by redhill26 for redhill] (6-1)
Last year, the Grade I Frickazee seemed to provide more starters than this year’s edition, but then again, last year’s Frickazee may have been a negative key race, with no member of the top three in that race finishing better than tenth in the ’11 Juvenile Fillies. This year’s winner of the Frickazee is the only runner to make this field from that race, but that could be because this filly has proved herself golden, with an impressive effort to win by a length with a speed figure of 94. The pace was strong, but she held firm in second, took over when asked, and cruised home.That field was actually pretty good in spite of the absences from that field here, with Grade III winner Solid Gold Dancers, who was stronger in the summer, among the also-runs, so one can’t say this young filly wasn’t facing some uncredentialed heavyweights. And she’s improved her speed figure every start since her debut, which shows major growth as she’s advanced through the ranks. She’ll add to the stalkers without necessarily heading to the lead, just like the others, but certainly she can be considered to be one of the best of the stalkers, if only because she sat up close in second throughout the Frickazee. She’s bred for distance (and, conceivably, grass, later on), and not for nothing, but she’s a half to a pair of Grade I-winning millionaires in Boischool and Ravencroft Castle, not to mention Grade III winner Super Daring and three other stakes winners; if she continues to gain ability and confidence like she has, she may not be done with her form cycle yet in the most prestigious and competitive race of the year.

Clipped Heels [Hard Spun x Seeking The Gold, trained by nicanor for smokeglack] (10-1)
This filly has come up a lot on this page, because she’s clearly the most battle-readied filly in the race, coming into her fifth graded race in a row. She wired two graded fields this year, in the Grade II Hoserhead Juvenile Fillies and the Grade II Stoker Handicap; she faced too much speed when she was eleventh in the Grade II Vermont BB Juvenile Filly; and last time out she set the pace for a half-mile before fading to sixth in the Grade I Dell Computer Debutante. You will note that it was just mentioned that she was a pace-setter in most of her graded races, which is true, and yes, she might be the only thing separating Great Disturbance from going out winging all alone as she did in the Darley last month. But the question is one of being fast enough, and the opinion here is that she isn’t likely to be fast enough to get the lead to herself, or at least to run alongside Great Disturbance; still, she should be swift enough to breathe down her back on the backstretch when it may come in most handy for the field. Truth be told, we know this filly can sprint, and that she certainly has managed to keep up with the best of company among juvenile fillies this season, but we’re still wondering just how good she is, and far she might go, seeing as how she too has been off since the Dell Computer Debutante on September 8, just like Ron The Beast. She’ll be going beyond a mile for the first time, and while she is battle-ready and has distance ability sprinkled throughout her pedigree, whether she can rate some of that early turn of foot to stay much longer than she has up till now is a very open question, one that should be addressed with a little more hedging than confidence.

On paper, this field has great potential to at least come close to last year’s juvenile filly crop. But the performances have been less than authoritative from top to bottom, hence the lukewarm support that trickles down the morning line behind favored King Of Stupid. But there are no true throwaways in here this time around. So, due to the lack of star power so far, this race is pretty wide open, mostly for the closers. Barring a speed bias in California, speed hasn’t been holding up all that well in the longer fall races for two-year-old fillies, which is why I think the stayers will be coming more from behind this year. My selections reflect this:

1. Stonecrab Bay
2. King Of Stupid
3. A State Of Mind
4. Grand Concourse
5. Miniminus

My lack of faith in speed here notwithstanding, this is a race wide-open in both content and scenarios, and though a marquee star has yet to emerge, this race may show that it’s time for one to be born. Good luck to all the Breeders Bowl runners on this Super Saturday.