Equinics – Aqueduct Slow Crawl (Written by Mjbfarms)

Hello everyone, after a short 10 year hiatus, my tipping column “AT THE RAIL” makes its return in time for the 2012 version of EQUNICS. The original version was a rundown of the full Del-Penn card that was a heck of a lot of fun for me andthe members at the time. Things were different then, there were no betting limits. We made and lost fortunes on a weekly basis.

This will be a special Equinics version where I use two distinctly different methods to handicap a hotly contested race. Next week we will review the results and see which method worked best (or worked at all). OK here goes….

This race is the AQUEDUCT SLOW CRAWL (race 3708). This race pits some of the best 3yr old colts covering 10f on the dirt. Entries can be seen HERE

Now the two methods. I will start off with my “surface and distance” method that utilizes 13 different categories with points given for each one. Each horse can score up to a possible 31 points. Obviously it puts more weight in a horse’s history and ability to produce at the surface and distance at hand. For example a horse that has run his top speed at 8.5f is not going to score as many points for it as a horse who ran his top speed at today’s 10f. Also I don’t even look at the odds that the CPU assigns because I am using a different method to rate the horses. Sometimes I get all chalk. Sometimes, bombs. Here are the top 4 scorers:

BEYOND EVIL  (GR Simsters) 23.5 points

SKITZOID  (URC) 17.5

BALLAD MAKER  (Testbarn) 10

SUSPECT QUALITY (Vermont) also with 10points

Thisrace turns out to be a good test for the theory because BALLAD MAKER and SUSPECT QUALITY do not have the history and success that the other two have. What gets them into the mix is the fact that what damage they have done in the past has been done at 10f on the dirt…

 

Since these races are so even and some would say impossible to predict I’m going to test that as well. The second method will be my 5 yr. old daughter picking the names from a hat. Next week we will see who was closest to the final outcomes. Her picks:

BALLADMAKER (Testbarn)

SUMMER ENDS (MIDAS)

GANDALIAN INVADER (Hispano Parlante)

SUSPECTQUALITY (Vermont)

Can’t wait to see who wins. Congrats to all the runners on this fine Equinics Saturday, and remember BRING EM HOME SAFE!