Equinics Champ De Mars: Citius, Altius, Mauritius

In the real world of Equinics, the turf sprint is like the 200 meters. It’s neither fish nor flesh, it’s an in-between event devoid of a lot of glory, but it can be an exciting race to watch, particularly if a medalist has a great backstory. You can have them three-year-old bimbos; I’ll keep my turf sprinters like FloJo.

The male horses usually get the glory of the turf sprints, both genders usually find their own glorious rhythms in dirt dashes, but the filly-and-mare grass sprint division usually has their stars fall into the cracks. There’s no specific divisional title for turf sprinting, no Breeders Bowl F&M Turf Sprint, and usually whatever glory is achieved within this very competitive division has to be shared with other sprinters, other turf horses, other fillies’ achievements. It’s just a very specific achievement to have the fastest filly or mare on grass, too specific for much else…

…unless you’re an Equinics champion.

This is the Champ De Mars, a Grade I, $1,000,000 race over a firm turf course at five and a half furlongs. Now, the Equinics history with the older filly turf sprints is pretty steady, but with an asterisk dating from 2006. You see, typically there has been one race, sprinting, for the older-filly division, usually at five and a half or six furlongs. But in 2006 and 2010, a second turf sprint for older fillies was held at seven furlongs, which makes the history appear to be a touch confusing. That division of this race, however, appears to be something of an occasional anomaly in Equinics lore, kind of like running an Olympic sprint at 333 meters every so often. And it adds a unique bit of color in the history of the Equinics, now in its seventh edition. Here is how the race was won previously:

2000: One Sky won the inaugural running of the sprint at six furlongs, in 1:09 4/5, for the illbred stable, now appearing under the auspices of the Squirrel stables, with a speed figure of 106.
2002: Queen Amy quickly broke the stakes record for the distance of the time, 1:09 3/5, for fappiano99 and Gatetowire Stables, and earned a figure of 108.
2004: Danehill Dancer (not the stallion) established the initial record for five and a half furlongs, 1:02 3/5, in the only graded win of her career for singhis and Gobruins stables; the speed figure was 114 for the stablemate of Eek A Cat.
2006a: Tequila Shooter won the only edition of this race to be held on yielding turf, in 1:03 2/5, and earned a speed figure of 97 for the barn of sdmf and Black Label Stables.
2006b: Quiet Little Drink took a seven-furlong division of this race, the first of its kind, in 1:21 4/5, for vampire4 and Empire State Racing, earning a speed figure of 105
2008: SJ’s SJ won the closest finish in this event’s history, by a nose, over Wondergirl Eden in 1:02 3/5, tying the stakes record at the current conditions and picking up a 108 speed figure for booberry and Sjmeola Racing Stables.
2010a: Bichita Classica won the five and a half-furlong division of the distaff turf sprint in the previous Equinics by a head in 1:02 4/5, and picked up a 105 speed figure for bichitos and Otto Haack (Venezuela).
2010b: In the seven-furlong division of this race, World Colliding set a standard of 1:21 2/5 in her only graded stakes triumph, and received a speed figure of 111 for seinfeld1 and Seinfeld1 Stables.

And this year, these are the hopefuls aiming to follow in these elite footsteps:

DELPENN: Echo Pass [Ghostzapper-Goliath, by Giant’s Causeway, trained by malekfarms for Afc Stables]
This filly is a multi-millionairess and veteran of one previous Equinics race, a two-year-old filly dirt sprint which she won back in 2008. A victory here could make her part of an elite group of two-time winners, and would establish a benchmark for her as the only winner in the history of Equinics to win a race on both surfaces. She appeared to have lost a step, with diminishing speed figures and lesser results dating form her last graded win in January 2011. Four wins, all stakes, in the last eighteen months, but all listed events, with average speed figures for a mare of her caliber—you’d be forgiven for thinking she’d passed her peak. But her last stakes win was a wake-up call, with a speed figure of 114 and a hard-fought win over #5 Atsuko (who runs here) coming out of a seven-week break being the high points. She’s rested up since, for only her fourth outing of the year, and on either surface she’s still capable of being one of the fastest horses in the Sim, period. A fast pace is pretty much guaranteed, which will serve her mid-pack spoiler role well. Her trainer is one of the classiest in the Sim, and the mare ranks right up there as well, with even her off-the-board graded finishes showing some spark of life in the engines. In the twilight of her career, it’s more challenging for her than in the past, but if the last is any indication, she may very well be in the mix one more time on the big stage.
Olympic comparison: Germany, with their Teutonic competitive focus and ability to have even their most veteran athletes surprise you.

NWRC: Fleetwood Funny [Distorted Humor-Fleetwood Hillery, by Awesome Again, trained by fleetwood for Elite Racing Stables Est. Week 236]
She’s a relative newcomer to the grass, having only debuted on it just over ten months ago. But she’s a pretty quick study, with four wins in only eight tries on the grass. She had the best and worst times on the dirt, with a Grade I placement sitting on the resumé near a last-place finish in the 2010 Bluegrass Oaks. But sprinting is her livelihood, and the grass is now what she enjoys most, particularly recently, with a pair of stakes wins in her last two starts. On the whole, though, her speed figures aren’t especially scary to anyone, with a 109 two starts back being her highest number. Her last start does show that she still has some potential at this level, as she did defeat graded winners Screamo and #10 Seeking Vengeance. But she did catch both of those mares on a downhill slide of sorts, and this field is quite a bit tougher overall. Her preference is to press the pace without getting too wrapped up in it, which should be comparatively easily, but whether she can take the next step and be there should the pace collapse is open to debate, as this is her first graded stakes on the grass, and first graded start since finishing last in the Oaks fourteen months back. Also of note: this is her first race on grass at distances shorter than six and a half furlongs, which may not be to her benefit due to more speed to compete against and less ground in which to cover against the closers and other stalkers.
Olympic comparison: Denmark, where grass is more to their liking, and where the competitive spirit is rising, if not already established on the world scene.

Kentucky Horsemen: Keyhole [Ghostzapper-Blackpool Lights, by Giant’s Causeway, trained by greenappl2 for Bulletwork Stables]
With ten races under her belt at age 5, she’s the most lightly raced filly in the field. And with just four prior grass races, she’s the least experienced on the turf. But that doesn’t mean she doesn’t have skills here, either. Her four turf races have yielded three allowance wins, all of which came in her last three starts, so she has a winning streak coming into this event. She is well-bred, and bred for turf, and she’s also been raced sparingly, with five races coming in 2012, coming off of a twenty-month vacation. Her speed figures have skyrocketed following the surface switch, up to a career-best of 109 last time in an allowance win over some pretty talented mares with blacktype. And while there’s room for even more improvement, there is a small issue with her good recent fortune on the green, and it’s that all of her races after the surface switch have come at seven or seven and a half furlongs. That bodes well, but the lack of experience at this five and a half furlong distance could be pretty telling. A sprint isn’t just a sprint; there are different dynamics to long sprints versus shorter dashes. This filly is a deep closer, and should be closing late with a strong pace set-up, but there’s simply a quarter of a mile less in which to utilize that kick. And this filly seems to want maybe another sixteenth to try, given the nature of her wins from off the pace, and the margins of victory in her wins, of a total of seven and a half lengths. It’s not impossible, or etched in stone, that a long sprinter can’t win a much shorter dash. But her form seems stronger as the distances increase, and in a field of strong, versatile sprinters, an intangible like that can make the difference. Figure in that this is her first stakes race, nevermind her first graded race, and you might understand how a horse with good potential such as this one may be a little uncomfortable with the conditions.
Olympic comparison: Kenya, whose dominance begins with middle-distance running, and whose newcomer status on the world stage portends some good things, but at the right time.

Vermont: B Day Wishes [Malibu Moon-Selkirk Minister, by Selkirk, trained by abbyrose for rodots]
She owns a four-race win streak overall, the biggest active streak in this field, and does not lack for experience…or consistency, having won six of her seven turf starts, and her last six turf races in a row. She’s a tactical-speed horse, meaning she can use her turn of foot as she sees fit, and mainly that’s been in a stalker’s role. This is going to be a very tough field, but in her case, she can handle it, having beaten a field of five graded winners and two listed-stakes winners when she won her first graded race last time out, the Grade III Bally’s Best. That was at six panels, but her biggest win lately came at this distance two back, in a listed at D.C., when she topped a small field by two and a quarter lengths. The note of concern is in her speed figures; she went from a 95 versus a short field, to a 113 in a talent-laden Grade III. Is she primed for a bounce, or was the small field responsible for a number being considerably smaller than it might otherwise have been versus a bigger group? Her win streaks give her the benefit of a doubt, but this is far stiffer than that Grade III, which had come up pretty tough anyway. She’s ultra-consistent, and unbeaten at less than a mile on turf, which means something. This is not an impossible task here, and everything seems to be coming up right for her; class test will tell.
Olympic comparison: Great Britain, who else? The host usually does well in their own event, and figure in the stiff upper lip and persevering spirit, and you get a contender with heart, peaking at the right time.

TESTBARN: Fantastastorm [Fantastic Light-Krissy Cat, by Storm Cat, trained by stormracin for Worldwide]
She’ll also be a filly with tactical speed, usually in full-on stalker mode, sitting just off the early pace. She’s made all but one start on the turf, is bred strongly for grass, and she’s a three-time stakes winner, with two of those wins coming in the last four months. Sounds good? It is, and yet her issue is similar to Keyhole, in that most of outings have been in longer races. She’s never run at a distance shorter than six furlongs, and has never appeared in a sprint stakes shorter than seven and a half panels. And that is a cause for concern. It’s not that big a deal here, since this filly’s advantage is her tactical speed, which should be beneficial at the shorter distance. And it’s possible to see a sudden improvement even turning back from a long sprint to a short one. But with the lack of experience, she’ll need to have her act together pretty quickly, and be ready to move sooner than she might be used to. On the other hand, her best speed figure was a 108 she earned in allowance company last time out, her second race off a route stakes that failed, and so she may be putting it all together in form at the right time here. Personally, though, it’s still hard to express a preference in a specialized dash such as this for someone with little experience at the proper conditions. She hasn’t been in a dash before, and her best results lately have been beyond seven furlongs, so that makes it a bit difficult to be comfortable with her chances. And yet, with seven triple-digit speed figures in her last eight races, she’s impossible to ignore, particularly in your exotic wagers.
Olympic comparison: South Africa, where experience might be lighter than you might wish for the conditions, but the ability to transform into a player may be just at their fingertips at the right time.

Minnesota Downs: Best D Yet [Sadler’s Wells-Jackson Cage, by A.P. Indy, trained by dundey for Dundey Acres]
Thirty-seven races, thirty-six of them on the green, and just $5K away from a million bucks. There’s a lot to appreciate for a classy mare who has already won an Equinics race, back in 2010. The pedigree is blue-chip, the ability to close is sound, and she can run all day if you let her. And that sums up a sizable problem here. She’s bred to run all day, and she’s run like it, and the mile is her specialty, and not the short turf dash this is at five and a half furlongs. Her Equinics win in ’10 was at a mile. She’s won twelve times: seven times at a mile, five times at a mile and a sixteenth. OK, maybe that’s not “running all day”, but compared to the sprinter, it is. And usually, if a horse can win at a mile and do very well at shorter distances, she’ll let you know it. She’s finished third and fifth in her only two grass sprints, both at seven and a half furlongs, and her only start shorter than that was her only dirt race: eighth, in the third race of her career, at six furlongs. That is not to say she’s a poor horse—absolutely far from the truth. She won Equinics from well off the pace going a mile, she’s a three-time stakes winner, she’s been spotted exceptionally well and never usually thrown in over her head. She has a fine closing kick, and her speed figures have remained consistent over four calendar years of racing, peaking with a 113 two years ago. She knows what to do when she hits the track, and always runs honest. But these conditions aren’t ideal to what she does best, and what she’ll continue to do well. She needs more ground for an effective late run, not to mention that the pace that she has faced before isn’t near as fast as what she will follow here. It may not be totally in the cards here.
Olympic comparison: Norway, in that they are game and friendly competitors, willing to try and compete in all elements of a Games, even if their skills don’t necessarily mesh with the required task.

BLAZING SADDLES: Fear Government [Forestry x Mr. Prospector, trained by theskunk for Skunkbarn Stables]
There are short-sprint specialists, and there are long-sprint specialists, and there are also sprinters who don’t care about the distance they face. This is not such a filly; she loves it short and sweet. She’s ultra-sharp, and hasn’t earned a speed figure under 100 dating all the way back to late-spring of 2010. And she’s a specialist, for sure: she’s 3-for-4 from seven to seven and a half furlongs, but 9-for-20 under seven. Another mid-pack stalker, she was second last out in a five-furlong stakes, behind #15 Freedom Festival, and second in two graded tries before that, beaten a combined half-length behind B Day Wishes and Midnight Strike, respectively. The 112 she picked up two back is a career high, and she’s been the queen of near-misses against some of the best this division has to offer this year. Will she break through, in a division which has a tendency to have its best horses beating one another? It’s entirely possible. Though one can make the case that she prefers six furlongs to five and a half, it’s that stalker’s speed which has done her wrong recently, on the wrong end of some big scores in graded races. If she’s further from the lead than usual, chances to be hitting the wire at the right time might get higher. Her time, it seems, just has to be coming. After all, any filly who has picked up a check in twenty-nine races out of thirty without hitting the big score in a Grade I stakes should be consistent enough to stay in the game until it happens. Even with some of her fiercest rivals in the field, this might be the time; she is 1-for-1 in races at this precise distance, and it’s that kind of fortuitousness that she’ll need to cash in on to grab some gold.
Olympic comparison: China. Always the bridesmaid on the big stage, never really the bride in neutral territory, but their big competitive machine keeps bringing them to the literal edge of glory.

GR Simsters: Midnight Strike [Smart Strike-Nightsong, by Danzig, trained by given for Given Stables: Fire and Blood]
(Must…resist…urge…to…be…homer…for…filly…winning…my…stakes…race…) *ahem*
This filly ascended to the top ranks of the division with a pair of graded scores this spring, in the Las Vegas and the…um, Not Las Vegas? No? OK, a win in my Grade II race on Belmont Stakes/New Yorker Stakes Day. And then a curious thing happened: she lost in allowance company next time out, after my race. Was it a hiccup, or a bounce? Probably the latter, with a little help from a small allowance field. She peaked big time with a 115, then came back to reality with a 95 last out. It’s an excusable effort, considering that she twice faced graded-caliber opposition and beat them in the springtime. It’s not the first time it’s happened this year for her, as her Vegas win was followed by an upset in an allowance, but the rebound usually follows. And thereby hangs a cliffhanger: can it happen again? Well, my race drew a solid field, which she dispatched with a 115 speed figure and a length and a half win, and the Vegas was a comparable one, but this is many stars in one location in a race with prestige. She’s been on when it’s counted this year, and every other race this year has been an adventure. A filly with excellent turn of foot, she may well head to the front and dare them to catch her, but she won’t be alone. If she can withstand withering pressure, she may well take the laurels, but she needs to be on her game two starts removed from a graded win. And she is winless in two starts at this distance, another bit of recent history to rise against.
Olympic comparison: America. Usually at the top of their game in most competitive outlets, some times you want to root against them if there’s a reason, but ultimately a sense of intense competitiveness gels with national pride and the desire to see the best aim beyond glory to stardom.

East-West Connection (EWC): Speedmetrics [Raven’s Pass-Metric Connection, by Dansili, trained by recnrichie for The Light Bulb Conspiracy]
Another gamer on this surface, she’s had thirty-one grass races and has earned a paycheck in all but three of them. And she’s certainly competitive in each start: no loss too horrible, no result too distant. But at stakes level, her competitiveness is at something of a lower level. She has won stakes races before, twice in fact, both coming last spring at 3. And she’s always in the mix. But the results have left her more a Miss Congeniality than a Miss America. She’s hit the board in five of eight stakes tries since her two stakes wins, and in a Grade I like this, you need to raise your game, especially in an Equinics. Her speed figures are lacking a bit, also, hanging in the mid-100s at her best, with a high of 106. By contrast, the highest recent speed figure in the field has been a 115; this should show the highs she’ll need to reach in order to contend, though it also should be said that in a competition like this, where the fields aren’t necessarily your traditional graded fields, it’s a little easier to surprise by rising to the occasion. Even though this is her eleventh race on the year(!), and she’s had thirty-three races by the middle of her four-year-old season(!!), she’s held up pretty well among grueling surroundings, and she should be able to maintain a mid-pack closing kick among these respectably. An outside shot for a bounce up exists.
Olympic comparison: Canada, America’s first cousin, where the grass is never quite as green, but the competitive fire burns hot, to the point where they’re always in the mix.

Hispano Parlante: Plasta Haack [Pivotal x Nijinsky II, trained by erenhaack for Otto Haack (Venezuela)]
In fifteen starts, she’s never tried the dirt, which makes her committed to her art, and her first thirteen races always earned some money. She had never been off the board, had never been more than five lengths behind at the finish, and had picked up a couple of stakes wins along the way and a top speed figure of 110. But her last two have seen the wheels come off. She tried a graded stakes for the first time two back, and she was soundly defeated in a Grade II. Stepping back into the allowance ranks, she tried going back to a mile and was again up the track by the finish. It happens, sometimes, when a horse who has seemingly proved itself gets sent into graded action and comes back the worse for it. She is 2-for-3 at a mile, which may not be of some help here. Then there’s the fact that she’s cutting back strongly to a distance she’s never raced at before, five and a half furlongs. She’ll need to use her natural tactical speed to keep up early on for a much shorter stretch run than she’s used to. The question is, will this distance be enough for her to make a late run, or does she just simply want a mile and not a sprint? Her top two speed figures happened at a mile, and though some of her long-sprint numbers are fair, the numbers don’t lie about her abilities to contend with a quality sprinting field more than a quarter-mile short of what she’s shown an affinity for. Good might not be good enough here.
Olympic comparison: Spain, obviously, a notch below the contending superpowers, but on their own terms they always have something to prove to the world.

Universal Racing Club: Vitality Theory [Giant’s Causeway x Kingmambo, trained by newastin3 for Astins Place]
If you want a longshot threat, you could do much worse than this filly, who has actually prepared for her Equinics start with a pair of short sprints that have netted two wins, including a graded stakes, and two career-best speed figures. Her pedigree says longer, but her expertise has founds its niche in sprints, and she’s won nine of her last twelve races, and that includes her graded stakes debut last time out at five furlongs. She loves to stalk, and in the Grade III win last out, it showed just what benefits it has in a short race. Granted, narrow wins that earn a pair of 107 speed figures still are a notch beneath what the best in here can do, but at least it shows some…um, vitality, in someone whose specialty is the dash. The main question is not in tactics (she’ll be fine) or distance (she’s got that handled, it seems), but in class. Can she get a bounce from being here, and build on the experience of being a victor at the distance? She has a level to climb, but recent form gives her an “in” that some of the others here do not. Watch her carefully.
Olympic comparison: South Korea. Quiet, under the radar on the big stage, but stealthily being a threat that some might not have expected.

City-Race Rhein-Main Turf Club: Soda And Ice [Muharib x Quest, trained by mabuse for Joe and his Horse Garden]
The idea of the Equinics is akin to the Olympics: to compete, to take part, to celebrate national pride in achievement in sport, and to do their best and represent their community well. And if watch the Parade of Nations at the Olympics, there is usually a lot of talk about who can win, who might win, and about who might not win. This filly falls into the category of “symbolizing spirit of competition”, as her abilities to run with strong fillies in this event are a bit muted. She’s an allowance-capable filly who was indeed a stakes winner at 3 at four and a half furlongs, which is a positive specialty to have in a five and a half furlong race. Her last victory came in that November race last year, and since then she’s been a modest competitor, allowance-placed in June at four and a half furlongs again, and seventh behind Vitality Theory in a Grade III two back. Tactically she should like a pace to chase, and should like to make a bold closing run. Her speed figures, though, have only crept as high as 97 last fall, and recently they’ve been stuck in the low-80s, something that puts them well behind the best some of these entrants have to offer. Good luck to them, but the honor, unfortunately, appears to be in making it to the gate on a big stage here.
Olympic comparison: Switzerland. Capable, hearty, talented, but a step behind even as they plan for building a successful future on the scene.

QUEENSLAND: Anzac Hero [Flying Spur-Exceedian II, by Thunder Gulch, trained by adj530 for Pekays Stables]
This filly, half to graded winner March On, at six, has exactly the same number of starts as four-year-old Speedmetrics: 33. They’ve approached their respective careers in differing ways, but each has turned their approaches into gold for themselves. In this case, she started her racing career with two stakes wins in her first two outings. While she’s never faced the starter in a graded race, she has earned a top speed figure of 109, and has earned 108s as recently as this past April. She’s going to be challenging for the lead if all holds correctly, as that is her preference when possible, and that could be big since, even though there are some fast horses in here (including some pace-makers), there aren’t a ton of them to make things interesting. And she can hold on: she’s raced at the distance 5 times, set the pace in each of those starts, and won thrice. Going 3-for-5 at the distance on the lead is something to keep an eye on, particularly if there’s not a lot of jockeying for position on the front end. If she gets the lead solo here, it’s going to be interesting to see if anyone takes a run at her. She would have liked to have seen some rain in the forecast for added advantage (2-for-3 on wet turf), but she’s already a possible contender here. It’s a matter of hanging on. Can she?
Olympic comparison: I’d be a fool not to say Australia. Fast in the pool, potentially fast on the court, speed counts for something here.

Saltire: Smiling Angel [Kingmambo-Jo Ann Christmas, by Caerleon, trained by donut for Toplight Stables]
First, let’s admire the lineage of this filly: she’s a half to three stakes winners, and a full sister to another, out of Grade I winner Jo Ann Christmas, and she’s tried to do her part in a brief fifteen-race career, only being stakes-placed. Most of her stakes tries have been beyond a mile; in fact, her first sprint was her last race, a listed in which she finished next-to-last. That’s not a good sign, when your only sprint was in your most recent start, and it goes wrong. Her last win came at a mile and a quarter, back in 2008—oh, did I mention she took off four years? Yeah, her last win came before a four-year hiatus, and while her results since then have run the gamut, she did try to run herself fit her second race back, finishing second at twelve furlongs after opening up by almost seven on the lead. She’s a filly who, after a vacation, has slipped through the cracks. She’s not really a sprinter, not really a marathon specialist, not really a miler. Going forward, she might like ten furlongs again at some point, but her last sprint effort didn’t show enough to suggest that these conditions were a line worth pursuing. Her speed figures have been middling since returning, aside from that 103 her second start off the layoff, and it would be too easy to suggest she may have lost a step. That would be inaccurate. She may just need some class relief. Regardless, there’s going to be heavy sledding ahead here. She’s a likable mare with some back class who seems in over her head here based on the past performances.
Olympic comparison: Lithuania. Put them on a track, a boxing ring, a wrestling mat and they are ready to fight, but certain other elements are just not their style; it’s all about placement.

YOSS: Atsuko [Daiwa Major-Jos Hollandia, by Palace Music, trained by 1st2nd3rd for 1st2nd3rd Stables]
The post may be a killer, but she’s got some killer speed in her. This mare wants the lead at all costs, and she’s had it in twenty-seven out of twenty-eight starts. The last time she didn’t get that lead to herself was two and a half years ago. At 2 and 3, her specialty was middle distances, typically a mile. It was fair, that time in her career: usually setting the pace, not often finishing what she started. Allowance wins were easy to come by, as was a 111 speed figure, but in big races she typically was spent at the quarter pole. When she switched to sprints, though, she could harness that speed and just try to outlast her foes. And it’s paid off, with two graded wins and a high speed figure of 113 in the last year and a half, all of which came in a do-or-die fight at the front of any pack. That’s what she wants here, and there’s not a lot of open challengers for the lead here, but there could be enough pressure to ratchet up the screws to her speedy abilities. Can she finish? Well, she has won three of five starts this year, including a Grade III, and comes in off a two-race losing streak, two near-misses in listed stakes. It’s always a tall order at Equinics, but her numbers are so consistent (114, 113, 113 speed figures this year alone) and so good right now that unless she’s pressured into going too fast, it could be hers to have.
Olympic comparison: Russia, a team you don’t want to face in a final, a bear (ha!) of a foe that’s hard to face off against because they dare you to bring your best every time.

Empire State Racing (ESR): Former Dancer [Kingmambo x Dynaformer, trained by raiderking for Jet Stables]
Two summers ago, this filly started a career in turf sprint stakes awkwardly, earning a speed figure of 45 and a trip to the farm in an all-around lousy effort. But she rallied to finish second after eight weeks off in her next stakes, and won the following time out. Last year at 4 she was Grade II-placed and a Grade III winner. That shows you that one of those low speed-figure bombs a horse will often send out at random in the Sim could mark an auspicious new beginning if you watch the signs close enough. Short sprints do not seem to be her specialty, even though she did win a five and a half furlong race three starts ago, earning a speed figure of 100. She was seventh behind Atsuko in her only graded appearance this season, and was just average in a pair of off-the-board allowance tries recently, but her results perk up at six or six and a half furlongs, so the potential is always there to put in her best run the closer to the wire she gets. She has some tactical speed, but is just liable to let events unfold all around her until the stretch run. In 2011, she was never worse than fourth, with graded-quality speed figures a constant, and yet this year the races have been of varying quality with lesser numbers being awarded to her. It seems like a career slump is happening, and this could be a fairly good wake-up call here if she can get going without running out of ground late.
Olympic comparison: France, with the joie de vivre of life and competition as the gates open, but occasionally with the ability to disappoint as much as surprise you.

Comedy Central: Famous Peking Duck [Vindication x Machiavellian, trained by psyduck2 for Gotta Catch ‘Em All]
Shes been around the block and around the world in her career, going from coast to coast to outbound post and trying a variety of things. She won a Grade I in Japan last fall, and followed it up two months later with a DPCD Grade I win, as part of a year spent bouncing around the overseas division. In fact, the Fujimoto Sprint, last year’s first Grade I win, is a race she has mastered, being the two-time champion in ’10 and ’11. And her best races come when she’s been just sitting off the lead, with a tactical turn of foot that allows her some fluidity in her approach to each start. She may not take Atsuko on directly, but she can and will apply the pressure staunchly. Last year’s races were pretty strong, with speed figures peaking in the low 110s, but this year the tank has seemed a little emptier. So far, she’s been second in an Ohio stakes, seventh against the boys in another Japan graded race, a mild fifth in an Italian Grade III, and a no-factor seventh behind Midnight Strike in my race last out. Good news is that she’s had a rest since then, shipped back overseas, and should appreciate a firm surface with just enough cushion to make her feel at home. But the speed figures have backtracked lately into the high-90s, and she draws the outside post in a seventeen-filly field, which could make all the talk of pressuring the pace a bit moot if she’s forced to expend energy to get to the front. Last year’s filly could have won this race with authority, but this year’s model has yet to recapture that magic. Maybe she’s a second-half horse, but this would be a helluva way to kick things off based on what she’s done lately.
Olympic comparison: Japan, always chasing someone, usually peaking at the wrong time, but still capable of shining just when the magic looks to have faded.

What a long, strange trip it’s been to jolly ol’ England, where the turf is lush, green, and ready for speed. Sim Hispano swept both distaff turf sprints last Equinics, in 2010, and DelPenn, Team Independent Unity, CR Racers, Global Sim Racing, Ireland (in the track-teamed Equinics of 2000) and EWC have all won the distaff turf sprint races one time apiece. So no residency specializes in this event, it’s been up to the luck of the horses involved. What will happen here? My selections:

Gold: GR Simsters
Silver: YOSS
Bronze: Universal Racing Club

It’ll be a competitive race, but there’s room for an upset on the podium, because there’s absolutely some vitality in the entry.

Good luck to all, and try not to take Bob Costas too seriously in the next two weeks.