EQUINICS …. GARRISON SAVANNAH …. 1 Mile Turf ….. 3 Year Olds (Written by Species48)

Customarily when you have a field consisting of 17 of the Sim’s best runners, the race favorite’s odds tend to be bunched between 5-1 and 8-1 with only a couple points separating the top 6 or 7 choices. In fact it’s usually near to impossible to distinguish who actually should be favored after a look at their racing records. The 2012 version of the Garrison Savannah however, has a “clear cut” favorite and that is Ladofmanor’s 3 year old colt, Middle Name Danger, who’s listed at a “solid” 7-2 by the Track Handicapper. With lifetime earnings of over $1.3 Million and coming off back to back dominating wins in the Grade-2 St. James Tavern and last out, when he captured the Grade-1 Jean Brat and made it look easy, Middle Name Danger certainly qualifies as a worthy favorite. The top challengers to him today, both listed at 8-1 by the Track Handicapper are Bsben5’s 3 year old colt Bitter Lime, winner of the Grade-1 2000 Guineas on the Newmarket grass and Abe’s 3 year colt Too Many Shots, winner of 3 of his last 4 earning speed ratings of 100+ in each of them. The Berkshire Turf course is playing firm and withseveral quality early speed runners, the pace should be brisk and honest

# 1  IT’S ESSENTIAL     ( 29/1 )      Residence: Vermont

3-Year Old Colt      Sire:  Eskendereya      Dam (sire line):  Danzig

Owner:  stormboot2     Jockey:  D Evans

S48  RATING     127.5     Style:  Off Pace Closer

Kudos to trainer Stormboot2, after watching his colt It’s Essential unleash a rousing stretch rally to post a win in his very first start as a 2 yr. old. Earning a very respectable 67 speed figure for the dirt effort. Stormboot2 decided to give It’s Essential a go at the turf in his 3^rd lifetime start. The result was a discouraging last place effort in the field of 8 posting a dismal 47 speed rating in the process. This would have more than likely disheartened the majority of us Sim Trainers from ever giving him another chance on the grass. But undaunted, Stormboot2 gave It’s Essential a short freshening rest, and after a decent 3^rd place effort on the dirt, he gave It’s Essential another go at the turf and It’s Essential rewarded him with a nice Allowance win recording a vastly improved speed figure of 86. Since that race It’s Essential has run 8 turf routes, winning the prestigious Grimnosh Turf Juvenile Stake and he’s finished “in the money” in all 8 events, including a 3^rd place finish in the Grade-3 Jellyton Stakes, in his only try in a Graded event.

COMMENT:  Consistent money earner as a 3 year old,colt tries hard, but may lack the Graded level seasoning to be a factor here.

# 2  BITTER LIME     ( 8/1 )     Residence: Blazing Saddles

3-Year Old Colt      Sire:  Tanino Gimlet      Dam (sire line):  Monsun

Owner:  bsben5     Jockey:  T Loesch

S48  RATING     505.6     Style:  Mid Pack Stalk / Pace Presser

Trainer Bsben5 knew he had an exceptional colt as soon as Bitter Lime crossed the finish line to win and become a Graded Stakes winner in only his 4^th start as a 2 year old earning a speed rating of 96 in the Grade-3 Looking Forward, a score that 1/3 of the horses in the Sim don’t achieve in their entire racing career’s. Following a respectable 7^th place effort in the 2 year old Breeder Bowl Juvenile, Bitter Lime capped off his 2011 2 year old campaign, winning the Grade-2 Epiphany Stake producing a scintillating speed figure of 101 and stamping him as one of the 10 best 3 year olds to watch in the upcoming season. Bitter Lime started his 3 year old season a bit slower, hanging late in Grade-2 Fainting Goat Nightmares Stake and settling for 2^nd place. His next start the Grade-2 Golden Rose was his worst finish (race) of his career, finishing 8^th of 12 starters only posting a 91 speed figure, some were starting to wonder if Bitter Lime was regressing a bit. But Bitter Lime quickly dispelled that notion in week 5037 breezing home a winner in the 2000 Guineas to notch his 1^st Grade-1 win in a career best speed rate of 106 and re-establish himself as a legitimate contender tor 3 year old turf route colt division honors.

COMMENT:  Battle tested against Graded competition, look for Bitter Lime to try and overhaul the early speed around the 6 furlong marker. Definitely a top contender to bag his 2^nd Grade-1 victory.

# 3  BLAME IT ON THE BOOGIE     ( 18/1 )     Residence: Yoss

3-Year Old Colt      Sire:  Blame      Dam (sire line):  Discreet Cat

Owner:  bentacon     Jockey:  K Livestock

S48  RATING     121.1     Style:  Early Speed / Pace Presser

Talk about a daunting task, trainer Bentacon has decided to make today’s $1 million Grade-1 Garrison Savannah 8 furlong turf challenge, his colt Blame It On The Boogie’s first try at a Stake event. Lightly raced as a 2 year old, Bentacon tried initially to cultivate Blame It On The Boogie’s dirt running ability. While his colt tried hard and had some modest success, finally cracking his Maiden win in his 4^th and final race as a 2 year old. However, after Blame it On The Boogie, ran a disappointing 4^th in his 3 year old debut in a Conditioned Allowance NW-2L 8 furlong dirt route, Bentacon decided that despite the fact that his colt’s pedigree seemed to prefer the dirt surface, a change was needed and giving him a shot on the grass might pay off. Here’s another case where taking a risk and making a change can pay dividends. Blame It On The Boogie then proceeded to rattle off 3 straight turf route victories earning consistent Speed Figures of 97, 98 and 95, btw/ 86 was the best he had produced on the dirt. His last race was a good effort against Open Allowance runners, where he battled for the early lead, gave it up in deep stretch and held on well for the place, earning his highest speed rating to date of 102.

COMMENT:  He’s definitely got a bright turf future, but there’s so much quality speed to chase here and Blame It On The Boogie has so little turf experience, that it is very hard to envision a top 3 showing today, but heshould move up from the effort.

# 4  JENEREGRETTERIEN     ( 62/1 )     Residence: City Race Rhein Main Turf Club

3-Year Old Colt      Sire:  Lookin At Lucky      Dam (sire line):  Refuse To Bend

Owner:  jayjay     Jockey:  B Tate

S48  RATING     96.1     Style:  Early Speed / Pace Presser

Not a lot in his record to recommend trainer Jayjay’s 3 year old colt Jeneregretterien in today’s race. He ran a good race to break his Maiden running a solid 79 speed figure at today’s conditions, 8 furlongs on Spain’s firm turf course. Since that race Jeneregretterien has taken 9 cracks at conquering the Allowance NW-2L conditions at various distances between 6 to 8 ½ furlongs, but the best Jeneregretterein could accomplish was ( 4 ) 3^rd place showings with 90 as the highest speed rating he could attain. Still eligible for all of his NW Allowance conditions so today’s field is about 5 class levels up from where he’s currently at.

COMMENT:  Hard to imagine he’s got much of a chance here against this class, has faded in the stretch in all 9 of his conditioned Allowance efforts.Pass today.

# 5  CYRUS DE VIRUS     ( 15/1 )     Residence: Hispano Parlante

3-Year Old Colt      Sire:  Giant’s Causeway      Dam (sire line):  Kingmambo

Owner:  wreckagees     Jockey:  J Wesselman

S48  RATING     710.26     Style:  Early Speed / Pace Presser

This race has huge consequences for trainer Wreakagees 3 year old colt Cyrus De Virus. After breezing through his 6 race 2 year old schedule, winning 4 of the 6 races including a Stake at 1^st asking after skipping Allowance Conditions altogether. He followed that win with a rousing wire to wire romp in the Grade-2 Bobby Papin Stake. Trainer Wreakagees next decided to enter his blossoming “star” in the Grade-1 Golden Shoe, where he was caught in deep stretch by the late flying Miss Timoshenko, winner of over $3.5 million and the 2 yr old Breeders Bowl Juvenile Filly. Cyrus De Virus parlayed that 2^nd place finish into a stunning upset in the Breeders Bowl Juvenile victory at the stunning odds of 11 -1. The colt pressed the speedy Teo’s Brilliant into submission and coasted to a 2 ½ length win. After a lengthy 13 week layoff he returned to Kentucky, the scene of his Breeder Bowl triumph and scored a pair of Open Allowance wins. Here’s where Cyrus’s story takes a turn for the worse, curious to see how his colt stacked up with the upper level dirt competitors, Wreakagees entered Cyrus De Virus in the Grade-1 Arkansas Derby, but the results weren’t what he hoped for as Cyrus was finished after 6 furlongs of chasing the early speed. Unfortunately the race seems to have knocked Cyrus off form a bit, in his last 2 starts Cyrus finished 2^nd in an Conditioned Allowance tuneup, and 4^th in the Grade-3 Moussac Stakes, recording good, but not sensational speed ratings of 91 and 102. He’s been freshened up for 7 weeks leading up to the Garrison Savannah and word is he’s been training sensational for his return.

COMMENT:  Hard to believe a colt with this record and talent is somewhat of a 15-1 Wild Card in this race, the odds are obviously based on questions about his form after his last 2 performances, and the fact that his speed ratings are excellent, but not Upper Level dynamic. There are also some questions about his ability to duel and persevere against quality speedopponents, but he is an interesting play if at his best.

# 6  TURFWINS BB     ( 99/1 )     Residence: Saltire

3-Year Old Colt      Sire:  Aqlaam      Dam (sire line):  Mugharreb

Owner:  turfwins     Jockey:  M Madden

S48  RATING     71.4     Style:  Pace Presser / Early Speed

The sum total of trainer Turfwins 3 year old colt Turfwins BB’s racing career reads as follows: One win lifetime, vs. Maiden Special Weight’s in his 6 races, 82 for a career high speed rating, has never even sniffed an in the money finish in 2 route races, along with 2 badly fading efforts in his last 2 starts, both races were Owner Restricted Stakes against much lesser foes than today. The mountain trainer Turfwins 3 year old colt, TurfwinsBB would have to climb to even rate a 2^nd or 3^rd place finish here would be truly incredible. Turfwins is a brave man to enter TurfwinsBB here, but if I ever saw a colt that is begging for and needs Allowance NW-2L competition, it’s TurfwinsBB.

COMMENT:  I’m guessing that even though I’d never seen odds as high as the 222 – 1 that TurfwinsBB was bet to last start, his odds in this race may be a fair amount higher. It’s safe to say that trainer Turfwins will be the only person collecting on his bets if his colt wins this.

# 7  LOOKS LIKE GOLD     ( 12/1 )     Residence: NWRC

3-Year Old Colt      Sire:  Fujikiseki      Dam (sire line):  Damascus

Owner:  scoregon3     Jockey:  T Small

S48  RATING     252.8     Style:  Early Speed / Pace Presser

Trainer Scoregon3’s strategy for his ultra quick 3 year old colt Looks Like Gold is very simple, break clean from the gate and run as fast and as far as you can. One look at his past performances and you quickly see that’s his most successful style. Racing at short 5 to 5 ½  furlong sprint distances as a 2 year old, Looks Like Gold won 3 of his 7 races and was a “perfect” 7 of 7 in the money. He even tossed in a good 2^nd place finish in a 7 furlong Open Allowance race to prove he’s not totally out of his element as the distance increases. Scorgon3 has invested the 1^st half of Looks Like Gold’s 3 year old season trying to expand his racing resume’. Three races on the dirt, earning a win in Open Allowance company in his only sprint attempt and a nice 2^nd place finish in a minor Stake covering 8 ½ furlongs, Looks Like Gold’s first route attempt. Scoregon3 then gave him 3 turf route tries, the best of which was a creditable 2^nd place finish in the Grade-2 German 2000 Guineas at today’s distance of 8 furlongs. While it was a nice effort, it needs to be pointed out there were only 5 horses in the race and Looks Like Gold was collared at 6 furlongs by one of today’s opponents, Too Many Shots, who passed him fairly easily to win by 2 ¼ widening lengths.

COMMENT:  He’s speedy and will be prominent the first half of the race, it’ll be interesting to see if he actually leads early as there’s some other quality speed in the race. Even though he’s not hopelessly out classed, It’s hard to imagine he’ll hold off this classy field for the full 8 furlongs, buthis speed could have a definite influence on the outcome.

# 8  SNATCH AWAY     ( 22/1 )     Residence: delpenn

3-Year Old Colt      Sire:  Montjeu      Dam (sire line):  Kingmambo

Owner:  super26     Jockey:  J Benisz

S48  RATING     209.2     Style:  Early Speed / Pace Presser

After a decent 2 year old season, where trainer Super26’s 3 year old colt Snatch Away, won 3 times and placed 3 times in 8 starts, including a nice 8 furlong turf wire to wire victory in the DPCDX Owner Restricted Stake. Trainer Super26 mapped out an ambitious 3 year old campaign to find out just where Snatch Away stood in the 3 year old turf route division. After a nice wire to wire romp annexing the Grade-3 Jellyton Stakes, it quickly turned sour. A fading 6^th in the Grade-2 Golden Rose and a dismal performance in the Grade-3 Irish 2000 Guineas, where Snatch Away never even got involved left Super26 scratching his head for answers. He inexplicably entered Snatch Away in the Grade-1 2000 Guineas at E5 and his colt responded with his best effort, battling nose to nose with Bristol Barron all the way to the stretch, he got caught in mid stretch by Bitter Lime but hung on for 2^nd, earning a career high 104 speed figure. Super26 was all smiles, but those smiles soon changed to angst after Snatch Away tried 2 more Grade-1 fields in his last 2 starts, the Irish 2000 Guineas and the Jean Brat and only managed to finish ahead of 1 horse of the 26 he faced in those 2 events.

COMMENT:  This will be Snatch Away’s fourth Grade-1 event in a row, he’s speedy, as all of his wins have been wire to wire, but has really struggled to keep up if he doesn’t grab the early lead. Hard to see him getting the lead here or pressing these opponents into submission. Might need a softer spot to return to winning ways.

# 9  PIVOT MAN     ( 14/1 )     Residence: Kentucky horsemen

3-Year Old Colt      Sire:  Majesticperfection      Dam (sire line):  Pivotal

Owner:  cyberex     Jockey:  C Donahue

S48  RATING     125.2     Style:  Mid Pack Stalk / Pace Presser / EarlySpeed

Trainer Cyberex’s 3 year old colt Pivot Man is definitely a versatile runner who seems equally at home on dirt or turf. Sometimes this trait can be a blessing and a curse, a blessing because if your runner goes sour on one surface, you can always change surfaces and maybe rejuvenate his fortunes. A curse also, because if a runner fails several times on a given surface, you can easily second guess the possible success missed, had you decided on the other surface in the first place. These are the burdens a trainer must face and exactly what Cyberex has faced with Pivot Man. It looked like quite a dilemma until week 5058. Up until that week Pivot Man had 6 dirt starts winning 3 of those 6 and 3 grass starts, earning decidedly better speed figures on the turf but nonetheless, he was still a Maiden on grass. Week 5058 changed all that, in a moment of devine inspiration Cyberex made the decision that the turf needed at least 1 more try. The result was a comfortable 2 ¼ length win over 8 Open Allowance rivals in a career best 98 speed rating, followed by his last race a dandy 1 ¾ length win over 7 Conditioned Allowance NW-4x foes and another career best 105 speed rating, which sets Pivot Man up nicely for his first Graded Stake attempt.

COMMENT:  I really like horses like Pivot Man, their versatility really allows a trainer flexibility and they usually remain competitive at the higher competition levels longer that the 1 dimension runners. That being said, I’ll be cheering for Pivot Man, but I’m leaving my wallet in my pants when it comes to betting on him against these rivals.

# 10  WHEEL OF KASH     ( 13/1 )     Residence: East / West Connection

3-Year Old Colt      Sire:  Unbridled’s Song      Dam (sire line):  A. P. Indy

Owner:  kenneth07     Jockey:  L Larson

S48  RATING     245.3     Style:  Mid Pack / Pace Presser

After 3 consistent, but moderately successful dirt effort’s including a respectable 2^nd place effort resulting in speed ratings of 67, 68 & 69, Trainer Kenneth07 decided to stretch out the distance and give the turf a try with his 3 yr. old colt, Wheel Of Kash. Talk about moves that pay off big time, all Wheel Of Kash accomplished was to break his Maiden running a fabulous 77 speed figure in his 2 yr. old turf debut and then proceeded to win 5 of his next 7 starts, which included a pair of “HUGE” winning effort’s in Grade-3 event’s, where he recorded speed ratings of 100 & 105. He also impressed in his 2 second place efforts, as Wheel Of Kash missed notching a perfect 7 of 7 winning turf record by less than 2 lengths. Unfortunately Wheel Of Kash’s last 2 races didn’t produce the same type of result’s, Kenneth2 first tried to parlay the Grade-3 turf success with a rise up in class in the Grade-1, 12 furlong Japanese Derby, Wheel Of Kash stalked the leaders in 4^th the opening 6 furlongs, but came up empty and slowly faded in the stretch to finish 8^th of 14. In his last race, the 9 ½ furlong Brook’s Sir Turf Route, the colt pressed the pace early, but again faded to finish last in the compact field of 4, never a good sign for tackling Grade-1 company next out.

COMMENT:  Definitely capable of winning if fit and ready, last 2 races raise a red flag about current conditioning, will have plenty of quality speedto chase, but he’s a decent sleeper possibility at 13-1, if form returns.

# 11  TOO MANY SHOTS     ( 8/1 )     Residence: Minnesota Downs

3-Year Old Colt      Sire:  Giant’s Causeway      Dam (sire line):  Distorted Humor

Owner:  abe     Jockey:  P. Wright

S48  RATING     224.8     Style:  Early Speed / Pace Presser

One of the more interesting runners in the field, Too Many Shots looked like he was headed for a pretty decent career as a dirt runner. Despite Too Many Shots winning 2 of his first 6 dirt attempts with 3 of the other 4 starts resulting in 2^nd or 3rd place finishes, a dull effort in the Minnesota Universal Racing Club Restricted Allowance convinced trainer Abe, that a try on the turf might be just the trigger to jump start Too Many Shots to return to his winning ways. Much to his surprise and delight Too Many Shots not only improved with the surface switch, he improved a lot, winning an Open Allowance and posting a 104 speed rating, which topped his dirt best Rating of 91 by 13 points. That race inspired Abe to enter Too Many Shots in the Grade-2 German 2000 Guineas, where his pace pressing style wore down the leader and allowed Too Many Shots to post a stunning 2 ¼ length victory. Winning a Grade-2 Stake in his second turf start midway through his 3 year old season has stamped Too Many Shots as a really up and coming contender in the turf route ranks. Abe next took the final step and entered his colt in the Grade-1 Irish 2000 Guineas where he held the lead at the 6 furlong marker, but surrendered the lead to eventual winner Samuel Bennett eventually fading to a 4^th place finish 4 lengths behind the winner. The race featured 10 Graded Stake winners, so it was certainly a gutty performance considering the amount of turf seasoning Too Many Shots was conceding. He tuned up for this with a conditioned Allowance win leaving him with 3 wins in 4 races on the grass.

COMMENT:  Has been really good after moving to the turf, and still has room to improve, has shown he can compete with the best. Still lacks the seasoning of some of the others but is still dangerous in this company, beware, could move forward on best effort!

# 12  HYPERSTORM     ( 9/1 )     Residence: Universal Racing Club

3-Year Old Colt      Sire:  Bernardini      Dam (sire line):  Storm Cat

Owner:  muninn240     Jockey:  P. Harzheim

S48  RATING     282.2     Style:  Mid Pack / Off Pace Closer

How’s this for starting your turf career? After breaking his Maiden in first asking on the dirt, trainer Muninn240 gave his colt Hyperstorm 3 tries at Conditioned Allowance races and though he managed to place 2^nd twice, Muninn240 decided Hyperstorm might be better on the grass, as his pedigree suggested. For reasons known only to him, Muninn decided to enter Hyperstorm in the Grade-2, 5 furlong Flying Children Stake, after breaking dead last in a field of 6 Hyperstorm passed everyone and posted an impressive ½ length victory. To prove it wasn’t a fluke, Hyperstorm almost repeated the effort in his next start, the 8 furlong Grade-2 Grand Critter Stake, just missing victory by a nose. To try and put the cherry on the cake top, Hyperstorm made the Grade-1 Breeders Bowl Turf Juvenile his last start as a 2 year old, but his magic wore off as he trailed 12^th of 14 and only managed to pass a few tired horses to finish 9^th. Hyperstorm started his 3 year old season with a bang, posting back to back wins in a Conditioned NW-3L Allowance, followed by a minor Stake win at 8 ½ furlongs posting a respectable 101 speed rating. Then Muninn240 got ambitious again and entered Hyperstorm in 3 Grade-1 events in a row. He made a decent showing in the race sandwiched in the middle, the 8 furlong 2000 Guineas, finishing a fast closing 4^th, only beaten 2 ¼ lengths. The other 2 race results were a disastrous 11^th and 12^th in 14 horse fields.  His prep for this event was a Conditioned Allowance NW-3nine mo. Where he faced a short field of 5 and won producing a “sizzling” 109 speed rating.

COMMENT:  Wild card horse all the way, certainly has good turf credentials and has come a long way and has faced tough fields, 6 Grade-1 or 2 events in 9 turf starts. A very tantalizing 109 speed rating in his latest reinforces his chances. A coin flip may be the best solution on whether toinclude him in your betting tickets, but he’s hard to disregard.

# 13  WRITING FOR REASON     ( 35/1 )     Residence: Comedy Central

3-Year Old Colt      Sire:  Stravinsky      Dam (sire line):  Capote

Owner:  hareeba78     Jockey:  S. L. Ledwith

S48  RATING     109.2     Style:  Mid Pack Closer

Close examination of his 3 year old colt Writing For Reason’s past performances reveals few clues to the exact reason why Trainer Hareeba78 has entered the colt in today’s contest. My guess is that Hareeba78 is trying to figure out exactly which surface best suits Writing For Reason’s talents going forward. Most of Writing For Reason’s accomplishment’s (both wins)  were on the dirt, although he did run a creditable 100 speed figure at today’s distance in his 1^st turf try against Allowance NW-4L conditioned runners. He is technically still a “maiden” on the turf, with a nice 2^nd place effort against Allowance NW-3L, (albeit vs. a short field) being his best turf effort to date.

COMMENT:  Has a huge “class” mountain to climb to threaten this field, a minor award would be a nice accomplishment and should help convince trainer Hareeba78that he is best suited to turf racing

# 14  MOLDY TB     ( 9/1 )     Residence: Testbarn

3-Year Old Colt      Sire:  Green Desert      Dam (sire line):  Azamour

Owner:  testbarn09     Jockey:  P Kinchen

S48  RATING     151.9     Style:  Mid Pack Stalk / Pace Presser

Really like the mix of class moves that trainer Testbarn09 has used in moving his 3 year old son of Green Desert up the class ranks, moving him up and testing him at a higher level and then dropping Moldy TB to a conditioned level where he fits perfectly, taking full advantage of good opportunities to ensure his colt’s success. After breaking his Maiden in his 2^nd career race, Testbarn09 took a shot at the Grade-2 Vintage Stakes, where he was rewarded with a nice 2^nd place finish. Instead of rolling the dice and rushing Moldy TB into another Grade-2 attempt, or bumping him up to tackle Grade-1 company, Testbarn took advantage of Moldy TB’s NW-2L status and was rewarded with an easy conditioned Allowance win. This was followed by a Minor Stake test, which Moldy TB passed with flying colors, followed by another cut back to the Allowance ranks, where Moldy TB again came through easily to win his final NW eligibility. Just before his 2 year season ended, Testbarn09 gave Moldy TB another shot at Graded competition in the Grade-3 Philanthropist, it was to be the only race in Moldy TB’s 14 race career where he finished worse than 2^nd, unable to hang on to a brisk pace he faded to an 8^th place finish. The poor finish didn’t de-rail Testbarn09, who resumed his class up and down training style, mixing Allowance and Minor Stakes to pad Moldy TB’s winning record until he felt his colt was ready to tackle Graded Company again.

COMMENT:  Colt is usually right on the heels of the early leaders, last effort produced career best 105 speed rating and sees Moldy TB sharp and fit. Has winning ways, have some mildly tempered enthusiasm about his chancesto pull off the upset today.

# 15  BRISTOL BARRON     ( 9/1 )     Residence: Empire State Racing

3-Year Old Colt      Sire:  Pivotal      Dam (sire line):  Danehill

Owner:  bristolred     Jockey:  G Arnold

S48  RATING     197.0     Style:  Early Speed

A glance at the 8 races in his past performance quickly uncovers the fact that trainer Bristolred’s colt Bristol Barren is blessed with “blazing” early speed. He has been unchallenged for the lead through 4 furlongs in any of his 8 races (including 3 Graded Stake tries). This allows the strategy Bristolred employs with Bristol Barron simple and effective, after controlling the early pace, if Bristol Barron can relax and open up a length or better lead on the turn home, he’s awful tough to overhaul, having won all 5 races that have unfolded this way.

COMMENT:  Lightly raced but battle tested against graded competition, ultra quick from the gate. Will be extremely dangerous if he can avoid a head to head speed duel, should definitely impact the pace and the way this raceultimately is run, may not look back.

# 16  MIDDLE NAME DANGER       ( 7/2 )     Residence: GR Simsters

3-Year Old Colt      Sire:  Redoute’s Choice      Dam (sire line):  Kingmambo

Owner:  ladofmanor     Jockey:  K. Ledwith

S48  RATING     733.5     Style:  Stalker / Mid Pack Closer

Lightly raced and still a Maiden as a 2 year old, Ladofmanor’s 3 year old colt Middle Name Danger has exploded on the scene and if he’s not the best 3 year old turf router in the Sim, he’s certainly darn close to it. I covered his last race the Grade-1 Jean Brat, where as the soft, 5 – 1 favorite he exploded around the final turn and won comfortably by over 2 lengths against a field consisting of 7 other Graded Stake winner’s and only 1 of the 13 others weren’t at least Graded Stake Placed. He’s now amassed over $1.3 Million in earnings and has notched a Grade-1 and Grade-2  win and a 2^nd place Grade-1 finish in his last 3 starts, earning phenomenal speed ratings of 107, 110 and 113, the highest representing his Jean Brat figure. What I like best about Middle Name Danger though is his running style, he comfortably tracks the early speed and is usually laying only 1 to 4 lengths from the lead entering the stretch, so he doesn’t have to come flying from the clouds, he just runs by the leaders and is usually is control of the lead well before the finish line.

COMMENT:  It simple doesn’t get better than Middle Name Danger, as 8 – 8 ½ furlongs on the grass is without a doubt the best part of his game, and he makes winning look easy. Only a regression (bounce) due to the toll of 4 straight huge efforts will keep him from being a part of this raceexacta.

# 17  FLINGING ARROWS     ( 10/1 )     Residence: Queensland

3-Year Old Colt      Sire:  A. P. Arrow      Dam (sire line):  Alleged

Owner:  lukester01     Jockey:  H. Harzheim

S48  RATING     593.4     Style:  Mid Pack / Off Pace Closer

Trainer lukester01 would be the first to admit that his prize 3 year old colt Flinging Arrows is a difficult horse to understand and certainly to handicap. “Sometimes it seems like he just wants to finish 2^nd.” Flinging Arrows seems to have the classic “seconditis” syndrome. In his debut, a 5 furlong turf MSW race, Flaming Arrows looked like a budding superstar, in 9^th position early in the overflow field of 20 starters, he tracked the early pace, passed 5 horses on the final turn and mowed down 2 early leaders to win going away by almost 2 lengths. That’s a lot of moves in a short distance, the kind of powerful moves that champion racehorses make. In Flinging Arrows 2^nd race, his Stakes debut, he made a similar move, but came up a scant length short and had to settle for the place. In his 3^rd and 4^th starts, Lukester01 tried increasing the distance to give Flinging Arrows more time to unleash his move and wear the front runners down, but to lukester01’s surprise his colt adjusted and instead of a powerful sweeping move, he ran a more plodding, grinding style and finished 2^nd and 3^rd less than 2 lengths from victory. In his 5^th start the Grade-1 Firebird Stake, Flinging Arrow again unleashed a powerful stretch drive, only to come up ¼ heartbreaking length short. Here’s where it gets weird, after another Grade-1 attempt where he again plodded his way to a 4^th place finish, Lukester01 decided to kill 2 birds with 1 stone and enter Flinging Arrows in his first route an 8 furlong turf event for Conditioned Allowance NW-2L runners, where there was little doubt that his obvious class advantage would make easy work of his 6 opponents. But strange as it may seem Flinging Arrows chased the early leaders, caught them in the turn for home, but hung in mid stretch and got passed. Again beaten 2 lengths, for yet another 2^nd place finish. Three more starts, and a 2^nd, 4^th, and 3^rd place finishes later, in week 5044, in the Grade-1 French 2000 Guineas, Flinging Arrows finally unleashed another powerful stretch move and won by 1 ½ lengths going away, followed by, you guessed it another nice 2^nd place effort in the Grade-2 St. James Tavern Stake.

COMMENT:  Wow, here’s something you don’t often see, a colt still eligible for Allowance NW-3L Conditions that’s earned over ¾ of a Million Dollars. Flinging Arrows has all the Graded Credentials you need to win this event but when the smoke clears, he’s only managed 2 wins in 12 starts. He’s such a hard knocking runner you really can’t count him out, not real hard to see him running 2^nd or 3^rd today, is it?

SELECTIONS:

HANDICAPPER:             # 16  MIDDLE NAME DANGER

CLASSCAPPER:            # 17  FLINGING ARROWS

HERMIT:                          # 12 HYPERSTORM

ANTICAPPER:                #2 BITTER LIME

LONGSHOT CHARLIE:  # 5  CYRUS DEVIRUS