Equinics 2012- The Churchill Downs
EQUINICS 2012
THE CHURCHILL DOWNS
2 YO COLTS, 6F DIRT
For Precocious Group of Colts, the Future is Now
It is perhaps more than fitting that one of the Juvenile races on this season’s Equinics card is given the name “TheChurchill Downs.” Fitting in the sense that even though this race is run at the classic sprint distance of six furlongs, all in here have an eye trained on another “Classic” race, one that’s run at the testing Classic distance of a mile and a quarter some nine plus months from now.
A precocious sprinter who can eventually stretch out- and be effective at it- is a rare commodity indeed. Realistically, it’s not particularly fair to expect a two year old with blazing speed and great success in sprint ranks to ever turn into a Classic distance horse as he or she ages. Sure, you’ll find the winner o fjuvenile graded stakes races who becomes a stellar miler (but go back to last year’s BB article on the Dirt Mile- does anyone really set up on a Sunday evening and think, “hmm, I want a miler!), but the superb two year old sprinter who becomes a top notch Classic horse at three is a rarity. It’s not a stretch to say it’s perhaps the rarest horse in the entire game.
How rare, you ask? Well, we went to work and dug deep into the Sim’s ever lengthening History Book (otherwise known as “TheBook Mike Wallace Wrote”) and turned up some interesting stuff. Well, sort of interesting. In the sense that if you’re one of the many who have a serious case of Bluegrass Derby fever, you may want to…..scratch from this here race?
Well, yeah. Scratch. If you want to win the Bluegrass Derby, get the hell out of this race as fast as you can run six furlongs. Faster, maybe. Why? Well, if you win the Churchill Downs on Saturday, which in and of itself is a tremendous feat, it’s pretty safe to say you won’t be in the winner’s circle come the first Saturday of May in Race 15 in the Bluegrass State. Sorry, Charlie. Just ain’t gonna happen.
We dug deep into the history of Bluegrass Derby winners, and what did we find? Perhaps it should have been a trivia question Squirrel used in the Equinics Contest thread on the main MB.
“How many winners of an Equinics Juvenile Sprint Stakes race have gone on to capture the Bluegrass Derby?”
Uhhh….how about ZERO? You are CORRECT, GOOD SIR!
Better yet, how many Derby winners ever won a Graded sprint stakes at two?
That’s right, Alex! ZERO.
Here’s the real stunner: how many Derby winners have won a LISTED sprint stakes at two?
Two. That’s it. Tower Storm and Anticosti. Both at 6.5 furlongs. One time each. Over and out.
Surprised? You probably shouldn’t be. As we stated before, rare indeed is the precocious two year old sprinter who ever stretches out successfully. What we’ve got here are some seriously talented colts who are precocious, brilliantly fast, and headed to Sim glory, one in this race, many in this race in other sprints down the long winding road. It’s not a bad thing. The sprint divisions are probably the toughest of any division in the game. It’s tough to get a good one, one who wins repeatedly, and one who can decisively dominate his opponents. The list of superlative sprinters is short. Take a glance at the Hall of Fame. You’ll find sprinters scattered here and there, but they’re outnumbered badly by Classic distance horses. Not because there aren’t any great sprinters, but just because it’s awfully hard to consistently win at shorter distances. A sprint is a mad dash straight into never never land. One bad step, you’re finished. Wide trip, you’re cooked. Dwell at the start, may as well just pull up and get it over with. There’s just not enough time to make up a misstep, not enough distance to overcome a stumble, not enough room to get out of a bad spot. It is, quite simply, brutal. The best horse loses a sprint more often than he or she wins it.
What will happen Saturday is that a Champion is crowned. Not a Bluegrass Derby winner ,but a Champion nonetheless. Don’t look for today’s winners or losers here in the Bluegrass Derby, but you’ll be sure to find them in a plethora of big sprint races down the road, and you’ll almost certainly see a number of them in the Breeder’s Bowl sprint or middle distance races. Rest assured that the winner of this race has every reason to celebrate a unique accomplishment, and be equally assured that the last words you’ll hear out of the winning trainer’s mouth is “damn, I just lost the Bluegrass Derby.” Why? Simple. For these colts, the future isn’t nine months away. For them, the Future is Now. They’ve blossomed early, they’ve shown great precocity, as well as blitzkrieg style speed. They’ve earned their shot at this, a rare prize that only comes along for two year olds every once every four years. That in itself makes this a very, very special kind of race.
At this time of year, juveniles are pretty short on form. Consistency isn’t a virtue, it’s the quality they’re all searching for. Some in here have been nothing short of brilliant thus far; others have shown great potential. A few have yet to show what they’re really made of. It’s the time of year when young horses really start to strut their stuff; the speed figures rise exponentially. So, while we can try to deduct who’s going to figure in this race, as with almost all spring and summer two year old races, this one is going to be a real crapshoot. One thing is as close to a nut lock cinch as you’ll ever see in a race- this field is absolutely loaded with early speed. At least half the field wants the lead, or wants to be very close to it. With what figures to be a blistering pace, from a punter’s angle, we’re going to look for a closer to take home Equinics Gold.
Since a good deal of this preview has been done prior to posts being drawn, we’ll run through the horses in the order of entry on the Pastures Equinics race page.
Representing the host residency Vermont is SIMBESTO (More Than Ready-Danzig). Winner of two of his three starts thus far, this one is a certified closer. His lone loss came in the G2 Vermont BB Juvenile last out, where his desperate late charge barely missed by a half length with an 85 figure. He made up six lengths in the lane, and with the fast expected pace, keep an eye out for a streaking bullet wearing the Vermont colors in the lane.
EWC sendsout COWTOWN TRICK (Cowtown Cat-Phone Trick). He captured the Vermont BB Juvenile in front running fashion with an 86 fig, and may just toss a wrench in our “find a closer” handicapping angle. He led at every call in that race, but showed an enormous amount of guts. He was pressed the entire way, never leading by more than ½ length, and still managed to repel the thunderous late run of Simbesto. Since switching to dirt, he’s a perfect three for three, and a look at his PP’s is a study of perfection; in all his dirt efforts, every one of the twelve calls shows a “1”. He wants the lead, and the big question has to be, what happens if he doesn’t get it? We’ll soon find out.
TRAPPE CADET (Trappe Shot-Awesome Again) is the entrant from relatively new residency ESR. If I’m not mistaken, this is their first, perhaps their second Equinics. Not much form to look at here, as he’s only run twice, breaking his maiden in his second try with a 79 over a sloppy track. Both his races have been in off going, so he’s a candidate to jump way up on a fast surface. He’s another that wants the lead, or be close to it. If he’s strictly a mudder, he’s cooked here. If he prefers a fast surface, he may just make the very difficult jump from maiden to Graded stakes winner Saturday.
The funny crew at Comedy Central have chosen TWINGE (Unbridled’s Song-Mr. Prospector) as their representative here. He has only one race under his belt, but he made it a good one, coming from well off the pace to air by two lengths as the 3-2 favorite. Another trying to make the jump from MSW to graded stakes winner, he should be helped by the expected fast pace, and it’s worth noting that his pedigree is rife with speed, speed and more speed. DDS Seattle Slew wasn’t one anyone would ever confuse with a “slow starter” type. Could be any sort.
Defending Equinics champions GR Simsters will enter EVILTOWN (Speightown-Pivotal). Another who has but one race to his credit, he too made it a winning one, scoring in a New York MSW with a 76. He pressured the early speed that day, made a strong move willingly around the turn and held gamely throughout the lane to score by a ½ length. He’s going to have to step it up to stay close Saturday. GRS is unusually quiet leading up to this Equinics-usually, the bluster coming from the GR camp is deafening. Are they playing it coy, or do they sense some trouble in trying to put a hammerlock on Equinics titles? Time will tell……
Minnesota Downs will run LEFT SIDE STRONG (StreetBoss-Awesome Again). Winner of two of his four starts thus far, he’s already stakes tested. He won a listed stakes at 6.5 panels, leading every step of the way. Best efforts have come when he’s up front, or very close to it. He’s already graded placed in the G3 Television Stakes, where he was run down late.Another who tried the Vermont BB Juvenile, he ran his best race to date there with an 83, but was out of the money the first and only time he got shuffled back a bit more than in his first three starts. That has to be a bit of a concern for the boys from up North, but he’s got more back class than a lot of others in here.
Wow. City-Race Rhein-Main Turf Club (how’s that for a name?) will be represented by EURO SMILE (Any Given Saturday-Cape Canaveral). For a“Turf Club,” somebody over there bred a pretty damn heavy dirt pedigree with this guy. Winner of three of his four starts, he’s already a listed stakes winner. Looks to have been pointed to this spot for some time, as following the solid stakes win, he dropped back to allowance company, and he responded brilliantly with a career best effort, running off and hiding with an 85. Doesn’t look like that took much out of him, as he turned for home with a four length lead after powering through a half in 45 and change, and was never asked for his best while cruising home effortlessly. His PP’s are stacked with speed-he shows nothing but “1” except for the last call of his first start, where he weakened late to finish fourth. Looks like he’s got some solid conditioning under his belt now, and that appears to be behind him. Another who will add to the go for broke early battle we expect to see Saturday.
Hispano Parlante has our first undefeated entrant with EL PATO DONALD ( Medaglia d’Oro-Gone West). A perfect three for three thus far, he’s yet another type with a ton of early hoof, never showing anything but “1” in his PP’s. He’s been brought along slowly and deliberately, improving with each start, as he’s worked through Alw NW2x conditions already. His last effort was excellent, as he toyed with his opposition, opening up a nearly five length lead turning for home, before simply cantering under the wire with an 85. Oops, the spacing just messed up, might be time to save what I’ve got so far. LOL. Anyways, big Donald is going to be a force, especially if he breaks on top. This one has a tremendous future in front of him.
Testbarn will counter with EXCELLENT OUT WEST (Excellent Art- Mt. Livermore). Two for four in his career, he’s regressed sharply when moving to stakes ranks. After capturing his first two starts with ease, and landing on the “Top Two Year Old Speeds of the Week” list after firing an 80 in a late March allowance, he has yet to duplicate that race. He’s been closing is his two graded stakes efforts, but hasn’t been able to catch the front runners, or match strides with the other closers. The fast pace should help him, but of all those I’ve looked at thus far, Excellent Out West is one who really looks to be crying out for more distance. Anything can happen, but……
Blazing Saddles has been mentioned by many as one of the favorites for the Equinics this year, and their representative in this race, CURFEW BUSTER (Afleet Alex-Pulpit) does nothing to diminish those high expectations. A perfect three for three thus far, CurfewBuster has been busting his opponents chops by lulling them to sleep early and then landing a late haymaker. In each of his races, he’s lagged one position from dead last. In each of his races, he’s unleashed a charge that nobody could fight off, and he’s shown an uncanny knack for knowing where the finish line is, winning both his stakes races by identical ¼ length margins. LTO, he fired off an 86, closing from over eight lengths out halfway home at 6.5 furlongs. You don’t see many two year olds who can make up that much ground late, but he’s done it three times in a row now, closing from more than seven lengths off the pace in each of his races. That’s damn impressive, and if he handles the1/16th of a mile cutdown in distance, he’s going to be a handful late while laying down a vapor trail. In with a huge shot to get Blazing Saddles off to a fast closing start this weekend. His worst career effort was an 82 fig. Woof. This guy might be very special indeed.
SPIN IT UP (MajesticWarrior-Zafonic) will run for the NWRC. He’s a bit of an oddball in here. He doesn’t like to be up front, and he doesn’t come from the clouds. He should tuck in nicely behind the early speed. Whether or not that benefits him is yet to be seen; he’s won one of his two starts, and failed to run down his comrades in an NW2L alw last time out. Top fig of 79, he’s going to have to jump up big to figure in this field.
The maker of all those great tools, YOSS will run BARGORY (Super Saver-Seeking the Gold). He’s taken the strange road here, starting his career in allowance company, where he finished off the board. He scored nicely in his next race, a more mundane MSW. He followed that with a big run in his return to allowance company, coming from off the pace to win by a ¼ length with a sharp 85 figure. That’s a big jump from his career best of 67 to that point. If he can move up off that just a bit, he’ll be right there. If that race was the proverbial freak job, he’s going to be backpedalling fast in the lane.
CARDRONA (Speightstown-DistortedHumor) is yet another with a perfect record, this one two for two. He’s also another who wants the lead, and has never seen the rear end of another pony. The Queensland hopeful fired an 81 LTO, winning easily by a measured two lengths. Nobody was really gaining on him late, so you have to think there might be more in the tank. He’ll need that, as he’s going to have a lot of company up front. As previously mentioned, only one of these front runners will have the lead Saturday, so all the others will be forced to adapt. Will he do that better than the rest?
URC will send out PAINT BOMB (Speightstown-More Than Ready), the third horse in here sired by Speightstown. This one comes in off a nice stakes win, running a career best 82, in which he showed for the first time front running tactics. In his previous races, he laid close to the pace before moving late. Going back to that style may suit him better here, instead of getting embroiled in what will certainly be a ridiculous early duel up front. His versatility should suit him well here.
The geezers at Del Penn will run WEST SIDE HIGHWAY (Bernardini-Seeking the Gold). While Bernardini isn’t one who figures to toss sprinters, he’s got a nice one here. Owner of the top speed number in the field (88), he’s two for three thus far. Surprisingly, the 88 got him beat- he managed only a third in his last race, the G3 Manor of Bashford, where he faded a bit in the lane. Yet another who likes to lay close to the pace, but doesn’t need the lead. I’d like him a lot more if his last race wasn’t a mere three weeks ago. He’s far and away the least rested horse in this field, and it will be asking an awful lot to fire a new career top off such short rest.
STAY IN ORBIT (DistortedHumor-Street Cry) will run for MIDAS, and he’s got the look of a serious contender. With that pedigree, you’d expect him to want longer distances, and in his last race, his first at six furlongs, he really exploded. He closed from eight lengths out to take the G2 High Roller’s Juvenile, powering past almost the entire field in the final 3/8ths of a mile. Prior to that, he just missed in the G3 Television Stakes, where he looked like the best horse in the field, closing like an express train and just running out of ground at the end. He’s well rested, and should be able to take advantage of the hot pace. In with a big, big shot.
The Kentucky Horsemen will send out the lone NY bred in the field, BOY OH BOY (Dublin-Awesome Again). He just missed in his debut, then made amends in his next race. His last one was a much improved performance, where he easily took an allowance race with an 81 at 6.5 furlongs. He’s improved with lengthening distances, so I’m not so sure cutting back is the right tonic for him. He prefers to be up front, but has shown he doesn’t have to have the lead, which will be to his advantage in this speed laden contest.
Rounding out the field is Saltaire’s SALTAIRE DART (Sea Dart-Stravinsky). Have to wonder how much longer before this fellow gets a shot on the green stuff. He’s really not done enough to merit consideration in here, with a top fig of 67 and his lone win in three trips to the gate coming in a local bred race. But these are two year olds, so you just never know….
So, that’s it for this race. The opening ceremonies are underway, and the horses are getting a good night’s res tprior to the big day. We’re not going to make any predictions, but I really like a couple of the closers in here, particularly STAY IN ORBIT and CURFEW BUSTER. Good luck to all, and enjoy the 2012 Summer Equinics!