The Future Is Now In Irish Oaks
The future is now in the Grade One Irish Oaks. It will be run at a mile and one half over a firm turf course for a purse of $500,000 and has attracted a quality field of ten. Superstar in the making Tenderloin is the deserving favorite but there are three other fillies, Medicinal, Improved Quality and Wingblade who have all shown strong recent form and an affinity for going a distance. These four have the look of fillies who will shape the game as they mature. Which is not to diminish the rest of the field, many of whom have strong credentials as well. Indeed whoever wins in this spot will be adding a big feather to her cap. Let’s take a look at the field.
#1 Medicinal 5/1
Medicinal is a scratchbred daughter of Medicean x Dansili x Fantastic Light. The chestnut mare has won four of her nine starts including her last two outings. Medicinal has really blossomed since stretching out in distance. Her initial races came between a mile and a mile and one eighth, and while she was solid (those starts yielded one stakes placing) her last four starts have been exciting. She made three starts at a mile and five sixteenths, winning an allowance, running third in the Grade Three Cleopatra and then winning the Spacious Melody Turf Filly Route by two and three quarter lengths. But Medicinal simply exploded in her last start, taking the mile and one half Grade One Adelaide Oaks by 1 and one quarter lengths with a 102sp. Medicinal comes from well off the pace but her stamina and closing kick are quite dangerous.
#2 Improved Quality 6/1
Improved Quality is a daughter of Quality Road out of the g-grade Sadler’s Wells x Unbridled mare Klondike Filly. Klondike Filly has not produced a stakes winner from eight foals to race. Improved Quality nearly changed that luck in her last start – she was a strong closing second in the Grade Two Italian Oaks at a mile and three eighths. She ran a career best speed of 105 in that start and was only beaten by a length and one half. Overall she has won four times from ten outings. Three of those wins have come this year in allowance races run between a mile and one eighth and a mile and one quarter. In fact she has not been off the board in her six 2012 starts. The Italian Derby was her first race beyond a mile and one quarter and also her stakes debut. If she continues to improve off that performance she could be any kind.
#3 Warwycke 7/1
Warwycke is a daughter of Haradasun out of the c-grade Nureyev x Kris S. mare Whirled Peas. Whirled Peas won races as long as a mile and three sixteenths. She has produced one stakes winner from eight foals to race. Warwycke has only one win from seven starts but has been second or third in the other six races. She is twice placed in listed races and has a third in the Grade Three Vanguard at a mile and one eighth and second in the Grade Three Wooly Mammoth 2000 at a mile and one quarter in her most recent start. She ran a career best 99sp in that start, which is the furthest she has raced in her career.
#4 Tenderloin 5/2
What can be said about Tenderloin except amazing? The daughter of Medaglia D’oro is the only foal out of the c-grade Mineshaft x Danzig mare Subhuman, a grade two winner. Tenderloin has won her last seven starts which include four listed stakes and two Grade One races. She has gotten better as she’s gone longer with her last two starts just being absolutely exceptional. She took the Grade One Sydney Oaks at a mile and one half by an easy two and one half lengths with a 105sp defeating seven graded winners. Her next run saw her go gate to wire in the Grade One Oaks de English at the same distance only this time she ran off to win by four and one quarter lengths while running a 106sp. If she adds a third Oaks victory in this spot she will almost assuredly earn herself a spot as an Eclipse finalist if she doesn’t have that already. This filly possesses dangerous early speed but has shown that she doesn’t need the lead to win. Three of her last four victories have come with speeds over 100 and the fourth was a 99. No horse is a lock in this game but Tenderloin will be very difficult to beat in this (or any) spot.
#5 High and Fair 21/1
High and Fair is the longest shot on the board. She is a scratchbred daughter of Montjeu x Kingmambo x Sadler’s Wells. High and Fair has two wins from eleven starts. Those wins came after she stretched out to a mile and three eighths. She beat winners in her first start, winning a non-winners of one in nine months three starts back by four and one quarter lengths. She returned to win a non-winners of two lifetime at the same distance and again won by open lengths. She jumped straight into Grade One company after that, finishing fifteenth in the Adelaide Derby against males at a mile and one half. She was beaten fifteen and three quarter lengths but did earn a career best 92sp in that start.
#6 Winter Strike 9/1
Winter Strike is a daughter of Smart Strike out of the c-grade Deputy Minister x Storm Bird mare Winter Storm II. Winter Storm II has also produced millionaire graded winner Winter Quest from eight foals to race. Winter Storm II had her best year as a five year old so for Winter Strike to be as forward as she is currently is a good sign. Overall Winter Strike has three wins from nine starts but is 5-2-2-0 since switching to the grass in February. Her only off the board performance came three starts back in the Grade Three Penelope Cruz over a yielding turf course. Her most recent race was her most impressive. She took the Grade Three Royalmont at a mile and one half by two and three quarter lengths with an 88sp. She had previously run a career best 98sp in an allowance race.
#7 Wingblade 8/1
Wingblade is a scratchbred daughter of Makfi x In The Wings x Irish River. She has four wins from seven starts including three of her last four. Those last four starts all came at a mile and one quarter or more and have been the best of her career. Highlighting those results was a win in the Grade Three Cleopatra at a mile and five sixteenths two starts back with a 104sp. She took the field wire to wire that day but she has shown the ability to rate in other starts. Most recently she finished second in the Grade One Diana Grand Prix at a mile and three eighths with a 101sp. Wingblade will likely be the pacesetter in here unless Tenderloin decides to get in the race from the go. These two will certainly play a cat and mouse game early on while hoping to save enough energy to hold off the closers.
#8 Saltimbocca 5/1
Saltimbocca is a scratchbred daughter of Soldier of Fortune x Rousillon x Kalaglow. Saltimbocca has won four times in eleven starts with two of those wins coming this year. Her biggest victory came three starts back when she took the Grade Two Diana Trail at a mile and three eighths with a 99sp by two and one half lengths. She next had the distinction of being ‘best of the rest’ in Tenderloin’s Oaks de English while running a 102sp. Saltimbocca was tested against the boys in her most recent start, the Grade One Irish Derby and ran an uncharacteristically poor race. She was farther back than in any other race in her career and never mounted a rally, finishing tenth with an 89sp. She will have to prove that she has put that race behind her to rate here.
#9 Medaliago 11/1
Medaliago is a daughter of Medaglia D’oro based on the b-grade Encosta de Lago x Rock of Gibraltar horse Forty Short. Forty Short won over a million dollars and the Grade One Topicount Special at a mile and one half on the dirt. Medaliago has two wins from eleven starts, including one win on the grass this year. That victory came in a mile and one quarter allowance race in April. She tried stakes company after that, running seventh in the Grade One Japanese Oaks in her only start at a mile and one half. Most recently she ran second in an allowance at a mile and three eighths with a 97sp, a career best.
#10 Grand Ole Time 10/1
Grand Ole Time is a scratchbred daughter of Grand Coturier x Way of Light x Blushing River. She has two wins from twelve starts but her last two starts are most relevant here. After running a couple of races on the dirt she returned to turf where she was most successful as a two year old and stretched out to a mile and three eighths in an allowance. She won that race with a 94sp. Two weeks later she ran in the Grade Two Italian Oaks at the same distance and finished third with a 100sp. With two starts in quick succession there is some concern how she’ll run in this spot, only four weeks later. Additionally she’s never run a mile and one half although her races a furlong shorter have been the two best of her career. She is improving and at 10/1 may be an appealing play.
Good luck to all!