Derby Hopefuls – Feb 18 Update
The Bluegrass Derby is less than three months away and the field is coming together with 8 of the 20 slots filled, should the trainers decide to point their runners to the Derby. The ‘cutoff’ for horses to make this list is 128 stakes points, which is equivalent to a G1 win, and would have been enough to make last years Derby.
| Rank | Derby Points | Name | Owner | Sex | 2yo High | 3yo High | 9F | Sire |
| 1 | 261 | LIVE A LIL | beerkeg28 | G | 105.196 | No | TAPIT x DANZIG x MR. PROSPECTOR | |
| 2 | 256 | IMMORTALITY MEDIUM | amir1682 | G | 104.066 | No | NADAL x CARPE DIEM x MEDAGLIA D’ORO | |
| 3 | 173 | SLAYER OF CROWS | icbomber9 | M | 99.486 | 98.334 | Yes | GHOSTZAPPER x MEDAGLIA D’ORO x DIXIELAND BAND |
| 4 | 164 | ON THE UP AND OUT | astapor2 | M | 97.242 | 106.584 | Yes | CURLIN x DANZIG x MR. PROSPECTOR |
| 5 | 138 | BUSINESS FRONT | asrstar21 | M | 97.56 | 102.039 | Yes | WAR FRONT x SEATTLE SLEW x STORM CAT |
| 6 | 132 | RATIONALISED NOIR | fdllodgeh | M | 98.944 | 105.141 | Yes | JUSTIFY x DANCE IN THE DARK x BROAD BRUSH |
| 7 | 131 | PUBLIC KNOWLEDGE | bsben | F | 99.483 | 104.389 | No | JUSTIFY x BERNARDINI x STREET CRY |
| 8 | 128 | RACE TO THE LIGHT | alydar | F | 98.19 | 95.623 | Yes | CITY OF LIGHT x DYNAFORMER x STORM CAT |
2yo Standouts
LIVE A LIL and IMMORTALITY MEDIUM set the bar for early Bluegrass Contenders, both being the only to post speeds over 100 and both appear to be taking their time as the only ‘locks’ that haven’t hit the track yet as 3yo’s.
Breaking the Mile Barrier
ON THE UP AND OUT, BUSINESS FRONT, and RATIONALISED NOIR have taken and excelled at one of the biggest challenges to be legitimate Bluegrass Derby contenders… can they hold up over a mile. These three not only held up, but they all posted career high speeds at 9+ furlongs.
Ladies First
PUBLIC KNOWLEDGE and RACE TO THE LIGHT have both amassed enough points to run with the boys, quite the challenge with both only having run against fillies which earns half the points in relation to open races. Their trainers will need to make the difficult decision of whether to take on the boys in the Bluegrass Derby or to run with the fillies in the Bluegrass Oaks.
Terrific article and exactly my query what the likely minimum cut off to be to save my challenger for best chance.
These are the cutoffs for the 2023 Derby:
GOODBYE FOREVER (140)
PRACTICAL JUSTICE (137)
GHOST GURU (137)
THE GREY TERROR (132.5)
YAUPON CAT (106)
Keep in mind these will vary, if the locks are all won by 1st time G1 winners it’d likely push the bar higher. If horses who are already 128+ end up winning and placing in the locks, then points could end up top heavy letting the floor for the Derby drop.
Also, don’t forget to take out races prior to May 4 2023. The sprints don’t count for as much, but they can be important if you’ve got a horse on the fringe. If you use RAFI to lookup to Derby you’ll see exactly how many points you’d have for the Derby.
Good job BK, But! yes a but! Is there anyway a person new to the scene of actually trying to get to the derby can get the breakdown of points better? like the info of amassing these points and where to find out lists of who is close or what races you have to get in to do this? I feel kinda like there probably is info on this in the forum? or maybe someone write a newbie style article on this a HOW TO GET TO THE DERBY Article from breeding to getting a shot at a triple crown race! (i would if I knew what it intales?) It seems like some people just think others should know this info but what if someone newer has this great horse instead of just the Big outfit stables. (it could happen) and just don’t understand what has to be done to get there?
I could throw an article together about this if there’s interest (comment here if you want more).
The KISS formula to get to the Derby would be to get to 148 Stakes points, I don’t think a horse with 148+ has missed the cut in the past.
Simple Formula – ALW Win (4 pts) + Stakes Win (16 pts) + G1 Win (128 pts)
20 points should also be enough to get a horse into their choice of the Derby Locks: ALW Win (4 pts) + Stakes Win (16 pts) or 5x ALW Wins (20 pts) or 3x ALW Wins (12 pts) + Stakes Place (8 pts).
thanks for breaking that down… i am often surprised what is not on the help pages for the game