2023 Bluegrass Derby Contenders (and Pretenders)

The Bluegrass Derby is only two months away and the field is starting to come together as trainers position their horses for the twenty elusive spots. Based on years passed the magic number of entry points to qualify for a post position in the Derby has been roughly 148 which makes the clearest path to the Derby three wins: Allowance (4) + Stakes (16) + Grade One (128). A win in one of the seven upcoming Derby Lock races would also guarantee entry to the Bluegrass Derby, however in most years the ‘cut line’ for the Derby Locks has been at 20 points making most Derby Lock winners qualify for their spot in the Derby based on stakes points even without the guaranteed spot for winning the Derby Lock.

Below I have compiled stats on all horses in the 3yo Dirt Route division who have amassed at least the 20 stakes points needed to earn a place in one of the Derby Locks or the one non-lock Grade One race.

The data below is also available in an interactive spreadsheet here which has been colour coded for Derby Points, 2yo High SPs (7.5F+) and 3yo High SPs (7.5F+). This sheet should allow you to filter and sort the fields to sort through the pretenders and find your pick of who the true 2023 Derby Contenders will be.

These have been sorted into four groups:
-‘Derby Locks’ who already have enough points to make the projected cut line.
-‘Top Contenders’ who are within 32 points of the projected cut line (3rd in a G1 / 2nd in a G2 / 1st in a G3)
-‘Contenders’ who are within 64 points of the projected cut line (2nd in a G1 / 1st in a G2)
-‘Hopefuls’ who are within 128 points of the projected cut line (1st in a G1)

Derby Locks

Rank	Derby Points	Name	Owner	Sex	2yo High	3yo High	9F	Sire
1	276	VINDIFY	dontbetonme16	M	99.859	102.97	Yes	JUSTIFY x VINDICATION x DEPUTY MINISTER
2	261	DRENGILIGR	givenstamina	M	106.302	104.594	Yes	TAPIT x SADLER’S WELLS x STORM CAT
3	204.5	AMERICAN FERVOR	asrtriplecrown	M	98.481	105.028	Yes	AMERICAN PHAROAH x UNCLE MO x A.P. INDY
4	185	SIDE OF VIOLENCE	snowstorm	M	99.621	101.703	No	VIOLENCE x TAPIT x KINGMAMBO
5	183	BK TOP HIT II	cocobella9	G	102.125	99.423	Yes	TOP HIT x UNBRIDLED x SMART STRIKE
6	164	PORTPATRICK	futurestar	M	101.964	105.055	No	QUALITY ROAD x GIANT’S CAUSEWAY x MR. PROSPECTOR

Top Contenders

Rank	Derby Points	Name	Owner	Sex	2yo High	3yo High	9F	Sire
9	134	GHOST GURU	canadaclass	M	96.319	100.383	Yes	AMERICAN GURU x GHOSTZAPPER x GEORGE WASHINGTON
10	132.5	THE GREY TERROR	padrebri20	M	97.979	97.938	Yes	TAPIT x GIANT’S CAUSEWAY x HALO

Contenders

Rank	Derby Points	Name	Owner	Sex	2yo High	3yo High	9F	Sire
11	106	YAUPON CAT	inthamoney	M	97.763	101.312	Yes	YAUPON x STORM CAT x SECRETARIAT
12	101.06	GOOD OLE BOY	beerkeg6	G	98.081	105.32	No	I AM INVINCIBLE (AUS) x UNBRIDLED x CURLIN
14	87	MORE TOTHE SOUTH	skydog3	M	99.292	97.733	Yes	MORE THAN READY x DEHERE x CAPE CANAVERAL
15	84.5	LORNE AMERICIUM	tulloch	M	105.553	100.658	Yes	TAPIT x STREET CRY x STORM CAT

Hopefuls

Rank	Derby Points	Name	Owner	Sex	2yo High	3yo High	9F	Sire
16	81	WALSH	cheadle	M	97.24	93.706	No	MAXFIELD x ENCOSTA DE LAGO (AUS) x UNBRIDLED
17	76	OLYMPIC CURLIN	rubber5	G	100.08	93.976	No	CURLIN x STREET CRY x UNBRIDLED
18	76	GOODBYE FOREVER	derekpinkos	M	100.038	107.987	Yes	TAPIT x WAR FRONT x STREET CRY
19	73	PRACTICAL JUSTICE	thethumb19	M	103.957	101.883	No	PRACTICAL JOKE x EMPIRE MAKER x DAMASCUS
20	73	STOP RIGHT THERE	lasthope	M	97.748	103.904	No	NOT THIS TIME x STORM CAT x SEEKING THE GOLD
21	69.5	FAULTY LINE	amir1640	G	99.808	88.466	Yes	FIRING LINE x BLAME x ALYSHEBA
25	65.81	BUZZKILLA	beerkeg18	G	102.303	106.772	Yes	WAR FRONT x SEEKING THE GOLD x QUALITY ROAD
27	57	LOOK ANDFEEL LUCKY	thebaker2	M	97.773	105.667	Yes	LOOKIN AT LUCKY x AWESOME AGAIN x STORM CAT
28	53	WEST MENLO	teece2	G	Sprint	Only	No	STANFORD x VINDICATION x TIZNOW
29	51.5	VINDICATIVE UNION	padrebri19	M	93.05	Sprint	No	UNION RAGS x VINDICATION x FORESTRY
31	49.5	THE DRAGON PRINCE	acegifts	M	97.91	107.521	Yes	CAIRO PRINCE x BERNARDINI x STORM CAT
32	49	UNIFERVERCENTS	amirnew9	G	101.116	96.432	No	GOLDENCENTS x QUALITY ROAD x FORTY NINER
33	47.25	UNRULY GHOST	duckman56	G	Sprint	Only	No	TRINNIBERG x GHOSTZAPPER x STORM CAT
34	46.5	WORLD OF UNION	cocobella	G	101.274	103.763	No	WORLD OF TROUBLE x UNION RAGS x KING KAMEHAMEHA
37	44.75	INSANE PEACE	foxon11	G	102.185	100.636	No	PEACE WINS x FORESTRY x CARSON CITY
39	43	STORMFLURRY	kaner13	M	96.798	98.794	Yes	UNCLE MO x DISTORTED HUMOR x GIANT’S CAUSEWAY
40	42	BY MY JAMISON	james405	M	85.736	106.827	No	BY MY STANDARDS x CANDY RIDE x STORM CAT
41	41	MANUKAMATA	untouched	M	92.634	90.748	Yes	AIR FORCE BLUE x QUALITY ROAD x STORM CAT
42	41	CHARLES OAKLEY	meola4	G	75.787	87.014	No	KNICKS GO x CANDY RIDE x GONE WEST
43	41	LEXITONIAN AGAIN	urccoolmore	M	94.655	102.616	Yes	LEXITONIAN x AWESOME AGAIN x SEATTLE SLEW
44	39	GHOST HOST TAPIT	dkstables5	M	93.711	107.493	Yes	TAPIT x GIANT’S CAUSEWAY x GHOSTZAPPER
45	39	STORMIN DEEP	uscsteve5	M	92.818	102.555	No	CURLIN x DEEP IMPACT x STORM CAT
46	38	DIAMOND HONORS	lenny14	G	92.899	104.815	No	TO HONOR AND SERVE x GHOSTZAPPER x SEATTLE SLEW
47	38	SCARED STATE	meola7	G	98.225	92.886	Yes	SILVER STATE x CURLIN x SILVER GHOST
48	38	RUN THAT GAME	asrstar17	M	99.89	102.115	No	INTO MISCHIEF x BROAD BRUSH x STREET CRY
49	37.56	GLOBAL ROAR	ragincajun	G	95.667	97.251	No	GLOBAL RESPONSE x UNCLE MO x A.P. INDY
50	37	ALL IN ON THE TURN	stormborn	M	97.937	99.099	No	CURLIN x DISTORTED HUMOR x UNBRIDLED
52	36	DONT DO IT OFTEN	schiller	M	102.564	99.904	Yes	NYQUIST x SEATTLE SLEW x CURLIN
53	36	LOUDMOUTH SOUP	commission	M	93.848	104.904	Yes	STREET SENSE x PIONEEROF THE NILE x SCAT DADDY
54	36	LETTHEBULLETSFLY	valesa6	M	97.532	Sprint	No	GUN RUNNER x POINT GIVEN x WOODMAN
55	36	FLEETWOOD LOUIE	fleetwood	M	103.028	105.144	Yes	MEDAGLIA D’ORO x TAPIT x STREET SENSE
56	36	SADLER’S STORM TAP	dkstables15	M	97.552	103.739	No	TAPIT x SADLER’S WELLS x STORM CAT
58	35.5	BK AYDEMIRHAN PINE	cocobella14	G	91.864	101.436	Yes	AYDEMIRHAN (TUR) x ACCEPTABLE x PINE BLUFF
59	35.25	SOMEWHEREINASMILE	asrstar3	M	Turf	Only	Yes	ZOUSTAR x GHOSTZAPPER x DANEHILL
61	35	SUPER GREMLIN	beerkeg6	G	100.794	100.422	Yes	MEDAGLIA D’ORO x SEATTLE SLEW x STORM CAT
63	34.75	KODAK BLACK	beerpong	G	100.071	93.058	Yes	MEDAGLIA D’ORO x SEATTLE SLEW x DANZIG
67	34	WESTWARD MISCHIEF	legendary2	M	Sprint	Only	No	INTO MISCHIEF x TIZNOW x GONE WEST
68	33.13	FOR MY LIL BRO	lopickles	M	Turf	Only	No	TAPIT x DEPUTY MINISTER x MR. PROSPECTOR
69	33	HONEST PREACHER	meola7	G	97.63	109.313	Yes	AUTHENTIC x PULPIT x UNBRIDLED
70	33	CORNER TOUT	honorcode	M	101.105	99.111	Yes	AUTHENTIC x WAR FRONT x SEA THE STARS
72	31.06	BK FOG OF MAMBO	cocobella8	G	92.463	102.118	Yes	FOG OF WAR x KINGMAMBO x FRANKEL (GB)
73	30	EYERIDER	scoobisgold1	M	98.379	106.037	Yes	CANDY RIDE x AWESOME AGAIN x DYNAFORMER
75	29	QUALITY FAST SLEW	crash8	G	105.663	97.101	Yes	QUALITY ROAD x SEATTLE SLEW x MISWAKI
76	28.63	ARKHAN	dragonrider8	M	Turf	Only	Yes	LOPE DE VEGA x NUREYEV x DANEHILL
77	28.5	WAR PERFORMER	jastables3	M	95.87	102.38	No	PERFORMER x WAR FRONT x WILD AGAIN
79	28	AIN’T MY DAY	beerkeg13	G	97.598	105.763	Yes	WAR FRONT x UNBRIDLED’S SONG x QUALITY ROAD
80	28	SICKY LOOKY	amir1655	G		101.29	No	LOOKIN AT LUCKY x ARCH x STREET CRY
81	28	FLOWER READY	brooklyndurant	M	89.787	Sprint	No	MORE THAN READY x FLOWER ALLEY x BERNARDINI
82	27	TAMPA	gowans2015	M	96.29	98.807	No	SPEIGHTSTOWN x TAPIT x DANZIG
85	26.5	ARC INVASION	bets3	M	94.316	96.657	Yes	HELLO YOUMZAIN (FR) x NORMANDY INVASION x ARCH
86	26	CAMPO MASSIMO	wtas02	M	102.801	102.519	No	MAXFIELD x TAPIT x MEDAGLIA D’ORO
87	26	JUST A PHAROAH	tarton24stayers	M	92.573	103.66	No	JUSTIFY x AMERICAN PHAROAH x UNBRIDLED
89	25.5	VIOLENT PACKAGE	amir1625	G	99.602	97.01	No	MIDSHIPMAN x VIOLENCE x CURLIN
90	25.25	GET BY ON A SMILE	asrstar13	M	97.138	108.127	Yes	WAR FRONT x GIANT’S CAUSEWAY x A.P. INDY
91	25	DROWNED AND REBORN	given23	M	93.507	Sprint	No	INTO MISCHIEF x GIANT’S CAUSEWAY x KINGMAMBO
92	25	CRACKING QUEST	amir1680	M	Turf	Only	Yes	CRACKSMAN x RAINBOW QUEST x NUREYEV
93	24.75	IN AGES PAST	88stud	G	96.687	97.643	Yes	FROSTED x GIANT’S CAUSEWAY x UNBRIDLED’S SONG
94	24.63	INTO THE EXPLOSION	givennewyear	M	94.353	105.796	No	INTO MISCHIEF x QUALITY ROAD x BERNARDINI
95	24.5	CHARLESTOWN CHARGE	jms10	M	90.22	99.074	No	WILL TAKE CHARGE x SPEIGHTSTOWN x INDIAN CHARLIE
97	24.25	FERMANAGH FABRIC	theduke92	M	95.81	101.541	No	JUSTIFY x FARHH x SEEKING THE GOLD
99	24	SLEWTHENTIC	sjmeola21	G	96.194	106.802	No	AUTHENTIC x SEATTLE SLEW x FAPPIANO
100	23.5	UNCLE OF MINE	lglong2yzy	G	95.934	99.323	Yes	UNCLE CHUCK x MINESHAFT x CURLIN
101	23.28	BIG REDS MUSIC	tfon3	M	93.87	102.026	No	YORKTON x MACLEAN’S MUSIC x UNBRIDLED’S SONG
102	23	METALLINUT’S WAR	yorkville	M	89.293	101.295	Yes	WAR OF WILL x UNBRIDLED’S SONG x A.P. INDY
103	23	CHARGE ALLEGED	amir1717	G	101.563	100.843	Yes	TAKE CHARGE INDY x GHOSTZAPPER x GONE WEST
104	22.75	BIG BOY PANTS LV	bizalls12	M	97.463	105.243	Yes	GUN RUNNER x MEDAGLIA D’ORO x GHOSTZAPPER
105	22.75	MATAMORAS	ddcardsires	G	99.125	90.14	Yes	MUNNINGS x AWESOME AGAIN x EL PRADO
106	22.5	LOUISVILLE GHOUL	utahjazz2	G	94.213	108.127	No	SHAMAN GHOST x DEEP IMPACT x STORMY ATLANTIC
107	22.5	VITAPLUS	bali88	M	99.777	94.057	No	CONSTITUTION x MORE THAN READY x GONE WEST
108	22.5	VOCAL TWO SKY	fdllodgei22	M	89.602	102.542	Yes	AUDIBLE x PIONEEROF THE NILE x STREET CRY
109	22.25	TIZ A GUN	eternity33	M	98.13	102.497	No	TIZ THE LAW x GUN RUNNER x WAR FRONT
110	22.25	WOETTE’S JUDGE	goldeneye	M	91.528	106.547	Yes	TIZ THE LAW x MONTJEU x KINGMAMBO
111	21.88	SURVIVINGTHETYRANT	given23	M	93.524	Turf	No	KINGMAN x DUBAWI (IRE) x DANEHILL
112	21.75	DISCO FLAT	checkmate9	M	95.291	103.35	Yes	FLATTER x MEDAGLIA D’ORO x WOODMAN
113	21.75	HONKY TONK DOOTSIN	zzzcutty	M	91.984	99.024	Yes	BLUEGRASS CAT x QUALITY ROAD x DAIWA MAJOR
115	21.25	LISTEN FIRST	desplocal	M	97.821	98.578	No	SPEIGHTSTOWN x DISTORTED HUMOR x A.P. INDY
116	21	LORNE GERANIUM	dargo	M	100.231	95.186	No	MEDAGLIA D’ORO x DISTORTED HUMOR x DEPUTY MINISTER
117	21	HELHEIM TROLL	pbcash	M	99.557	88.778	No	SPEIGHTSTOWN x GLENEAGLES x BERNARDINI
118	21	ONCE OVER	alysalley	M	101.132	100.268	No	THE FACTOR x SPEIGHTSTOWN x DIXIELAND BAND
119	21	SOUTHERN EAGLE	checkmate39	G	96.365	103.465	No	BLACK EAGLE x MEDAGLIA D’ORO x GONE WEST
120	21	VIOLENT APPARITION	oats1	M	93.498	103.605	Yes	VIOLENCE x GHOSTZAPPER x A.P. INDY
121	21	OUTBACK GARBLE	outback4	M	95.379	105.404	No	QUALITY ROAD x CITY ZIP x UNCLE MO
122	21	SENSORY DETAILS	neonshadow0	M	Sprint	100.686	No	AUDIBLE x VALUE PLUS x EXCHANGE RATE
123	21	VARANG	cylla	M	101.827	100.836	Yes	INTO MISCHIEF x ARROGATE x A.P. INDY
124	21	UNKNOWINGLY IMPURE	ajayhunter	M	Sprint	Only		CHRYSOBERYL x AWESOME AGAIN x DANZIG
125	21	DESTINATION DERBY	mitcho3	M	98.361	96.964	No	DECLARATION OF WAR x FANTASTIC LIGHT x DUBAI MILLENNIUM
126	21	TAPS DEVIL	kingranch	M	100.991	96.966	Yes	TAPIT x DEEP IMPACT x A.P. INDY
127	20.88	TROJAWI	1strule	M	Turf	Only		DUBAWI (IRE) x DYNAFORMER x DANZIG
129	20.5	SMALL BATCH	paynter	M	93.639	90.638	Yes	SPEIGHTSTOWN x MEDAGLIA D’ORO x A.P. INDY
132	20.13	AMANDA’S FASTNET	padrebri17	M	97.615	95.107	No	FASTNET ROCK (AUS) x MONTJEU x A.P. INDY
133	20.13	PEROLON EL GRANDE	marisol	M	93.223	103.727	Yes	CONNECT x A.P. INDY x DISTORTED HUMOR
136	20	MR. I’M IN CHARGE	fairhaven12	M	88.947	99.591	Yes	CURLIN x TAKE CHARGE INDY x MR. PROSPECTOR
137	20	INFINITE STARS	tisjuliet	M	92.448	102.149	No	INTO MISCHIEF x MEDAGLIA D’ORO x A.P. INDY
138	20	CHARRED ORANGE	alydar	G	99.48	98.962	No	PYRO x ENCOSTA DE LAGO (AUS) x GONE WEST
139	20	BY THE PRINTS	tamure	G	86.82	104.446	No	BOLT D’ORO x CRYPTOCLEARANCE x A.P. INDY
140	20	ROCK THE DAWN	amir1614	M	Sprint	Only	No	DAWN APPROACH (IRE) x FASTNET ROCK (AUS) x MISWAKI
141	20	ASHGABAT	plano13	M	95.007	103.666	No	QUALITY ROAD x DEPUTY MINISTER x ALYDAR
142	20	BIO MINISTER	mike	M	Sprint	103.304	No	BIOGENIC x GIANT’S CAUSEWAY x DEPUTY MINISTER
143	20	DROWN IN PITY	connor1	M	99.891	103.557	No	TAPIT x SADLER’S WELLS x SEATTLE SLEW
144	20	DRIVEN BY SPITE	peepsclaim	M	99.915	98.457	No	SPEIGHTSTOWN x DANZIG x NIJINSKY 2ND

I hope you guys and gals enjoy the data above, if there’s enough interest I might start tracking the 2024 Derby Contenders (and Pretenders) as the route results start to arrive in September.

Cheers and Best of Luck!