Kegger’s 2yo Miler Debut Recap

In true fashion ‘BeerKeg Racing’ has had a full 24 of their elite bred runners make their debut at a mile this weekend. All runners were sent out into conditional allowances even though fifteen were still maidens, which garnered some concern from elite trainer Dan (aka Given) who felt they would have been better suited in MSW fields.

The overall record for this group was 4-4-1 for 16.7% winners and 37.5% ITM, respectable with the number of elite runners from other stables who had also targeted this weekend for their debuts at a mile.

The nine runners coming in with a win put together an more impressive 33.3% wins and 66.7% ITM with a 3-2-1 record. On the other hand the non-maidens ended off with a 1-2-0 record for 15 starters, a 6.7% wins and 20% ITM. From a distance this looks like Dan might have been right, however the question would remain as to how many of these maidens would have been able to win in a MSW field, as most of these fields were stacked with elite runners as well.

Based on the limited data from Saturday 2yo Miles the average winning speed for MSW races was 82.7 while the ALW average was 86.2. Based off these averages only non-winner would have finished ahead of the average winning speed (SENSUAL SEDUCTION at 83.872 SP) although a few others may have been able to net a lucky win if they had been in a below average MSW field.

In hindsight, I am still comfortable with my decision to run in allowance ranks instead of against maidens. The biggest reason for this is that JUAN DUBAI CANDY emerges not only victorious, but also will now have 4 valuable entry points which will help jump over the cutoff in his next race which will likely be either a stakes or graded run. Two others will also have entry points added on with 2nd place finishes.

2yo Geldings

Runner	Sex	Pedigree	Old High	Mile SP	Wins
KEG TAP’D BY KINGS	Gelding	TAPIT x KINGMAMBO x STORM CAT	80.063	90.120	2
DANANDSAMAREWRONG	Gelding	UNCLE MO x STORM BIRD x QUALITY ROAD	80.768	86.779	2
JUAN DUBAI CANDY	Gelding	CANDY RIDE x STORM BIRD x DUBAI MILLENNIUM	72.977	84.612	1
SENSUAL SEDUCTION	Gelding	CANDY RIDE x SUNDAY SILENCE x UNCLE MO	83.658	83.872	1
CURLIN KEGGER	Gelding	CURLIN x UNCLE MO x WAR FRONT	72.754	82.571	0
BERNSTOWN	Gelding	SPEIGHTSTOWN x BERNARDINI x DANZIG	75.138	81.684	2
CRAFTER OF WONDERS	Gelding	NO NAY NEVER x SPEIGHTSTOWN x KINGMAMBO	68.086	81.270	0
JUSTIFIED STORM	Gelding	JUSTIFY x MISWAKI x STORM BIRD	80.309	79.557	2
GANGSTA LUV	Gelding	QUALITY ROAD x MISWAKI x TAPIT	74.941	75.428	0
DANANDSAMTAPDATASS	Gelding	QUALITY ROAD x STORM BIRD x TAPIT	70.523	74.877	0
TAPIT ON SUNDAYS	Gelding	TAPIT x SUNDAY SILENCE x MR. PROSPECTOR	76.320	72.898	1
KUSH UPS	Gelding	DUBAWI (IRE) x DANSILI (GB) x SHAMARDAL	69.420	72.460	0
BERNSPEGASUSZAPPER	Gelding	GHOSTZAPPER x BERNARDINI x FUSAICHI PEGASUS	62.603	71.766	0
ARROGATE KEGGER	Gelding	ARROGATE x STORM BIRD x CURLIN	64.254	60.483	0

2yo Fillies

Runner	Sex	Pedigree	Old High	Mile SP	Wins
MACHIA TAPIT	Filly	TAPIT x MACHIAVELLIAN x WAR FRONT	71.829	82.372	1
YOUNG WILD N FREE	Filly	CANDY RIDE x STORM BIRD x QUALITY ROAD	68.667	77.938	0
SHATTER THE SKY	Filly	TAPIT x MONTJEU x KINGMAMBO	67.891	77.735	1
MISSION CLEOPATRA	Filly	UNCLE MO x SMART STRIKE x WAR FRONT	67.675	75.185	0
CALIFORNIA GURLS	Filly	QUALITY ROAD x SEEKING THE GOLD x TAPIT	72.672	74.846	0
QUALITY KEGGER	Filly	QUALITY ROAD x SMART STRIKE x WAR FRONT	73.834	73.858	1
KEGGERS CANDY SHOP	Filly	CANDY RIDE x CARSON CITY x UNCLE MO	60.260	73.593	0
DOGGY DOGG WORLD	Filly	QUALITY ROAD x ELA-MANA-MOU x MEDAGLIA D’ORO	67.209	72.314	0
CURLIN TAPPED KEGS	Filly	TAPIT x CURLIN x NUREYEV	71.790	70.512	0
THE NEXT EPISODE	Filly	UNCLE MO x SMART STRIKE x QUALITY ROAD	68.414	67.801	0

Speed Change Analysis

	Avg SP	SP Improved	SP Decreased	Avg Increase
All	76.855	19	5	6.964
Non-Maidens	80.986	7	2	6.177
Maidens	74.377	12	3	7.423
Mile Losers	75.067	15	5	6.538
Mile Winners	85.799	4	0	8.562

Another argument against running maidens against winners was the risk that they would not be able to contend with the winners and would have reduced speed figures, limiting SP analysis of preferred distances going forward. Based on the limited data from my 24 runners, about 80% of runners (both maidens and non-maidens) posted improved SP figures, with a larger increase seen by the maidens (+7.423 vs +6.177) suggesting they were still able to bring 100% effort, even if they weren’t able to finish in the money at the same percentage.

Ultimately much more data would be needed to determine whether running my elite maidens in the allowance fields instead of maiden restricted fields, however this topic definitely added a little extra excitement to the weekend.

Cheers to all, hope you enjoyed the read, and feel free to add your insight to the comments below.