{"id":9603,"date":"2011-09-16T19:26:26","date_gmt":"2011-09-16T19:26:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blacktypebugler.com\/?p=9603"},"modified":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","slug":"oldbtb_1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/?p=9603","title":{"rendered":"Three Year-Olds Trying Their Luck Versus Elders"},"content":{"rendered":"

#1 BJ\u2019s Prayer 5-1 <\/SPAN><\/FONT><\/B>(Rock Hard Ten) has the rail and all the better, since the four year-old filly will be heading straight for the lead.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Led by seven at the second call last time out in the G1 Yolkshire Oaks<\/SPAN><\/I>\u2026 but collapsed in the stretch.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She held that speed at 1 5\/8m to win a Grade II event.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>That was her first graded title, though she\u2019d placed in two other graded events prior at 10 and 11 furlongs.\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/SPAN><\/P>

#2 Getalodeome 7-1 <\/SPAN><\/FONT><\/B>(Pulpit) has just $310,000 in career earnings but annexed a Grade III event at 1 1\/4m a year ago.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>One try at this distance was a success in an open allowance (SP 103, won by 4 \u00bc lengths).\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Huge SP of 111 in last at 1 5\/16m probably convinced connections to take a shot at the big leagues again, but this filly has never beaten older in a stakes race and has no stakes wins in 13 months.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Dicey.<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

#3 Old Troubadour 16-1 <\/SPAN><\/FONT><\/B>(Awesome Again) comes off two straight listed stakes wins at the distance.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>8-for-13 on the turf, this four year-old has dodged top competition for the most part, having won a series of CPU value restricted allowances before trying minor stakes competition (and small fields).\u00a0 <\/SPAN>No dodging here, as this move is very ambitious.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She likes the distance but is a bit of an outsider against these as her SPs are a cut below.<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

#4 Tsunama 42-1<\/SPAN><\/FONT><\/B> (A.P. Indy) is likely completely outclassed.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She\u2019s a three year-old making her fifth career start.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>To date, she\u2019s beaten her kind at 7f vs. maidens, at 9f in N2L allowance company, and at 1 1\/4m vs. three listed stakes rivals.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>First time vs. older, first time at the distance, first time in graded company, etc.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Don\u2019t hold your breath.<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

#5 Dynamics of War 10-1<\/SPAN><\/FONT><\/B> (Dynaformer) could have been had for a $25,000 tag a year ago.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>On July 30 of this year, she won the G3 Giving Thanks<\/SPAN><\/I> going away at 16-1 odds (SP 110) at this distance.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>This is a classic late bloomer (how many horses lose two starter allowances yet win a graded stakes race less than a year later?) who is coming into her own.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>I like the way she\u2019s been handled too\u2026 always given enough time to recover from a big effort.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She\u2019s off 7 weeks rest here.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Dangerous at a price.<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

#6 Salvage Mission 6-1 <\/SPAN><\/FONT><\/B>(Hussonet) is just 5-for-23 and has never tried this distance.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Recent closing efforts at 9.5 to 10.5 furlongs are somewhat encouraging \u2013 SPs ranging up to 108 \u2013 but this mare has no graded wins and this seems like quite a spot to try the classic turf distance for the first time.<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

#7 Inhuman Rampage 9\/2<\/SPAN><\/FONT><\/B> (Bernardini) would be 20-1 if the sim could process the difference between dirt and turf form.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>An accomplished main track marathoner, this six year-old mare has won $552k and took a Grade II event last year at this distance on a good dirt track.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She certainly has talent on par with these.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>But while she has 33 dirt races she\u2019s tried the turf just once, an 11th place finish as a three year-old.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Her SP that day (83) was about 10 points below what you\u2019d expect out of her under similar conditions on the dirt.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>So while it is difficult to draw a conclusion from one race, it is unlikely that she will be able to transfer her dirt ability to the grass.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Avoid at this price.<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

#8 Dynawells 12-1 <\/SPAN><\/FONT><\/B>(A.P. Indy) is another three year-old trying her luck at the top level, but this one has reached a pinnacle of three year-old success and can\u2019t be discounted entirely.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>In eight career starts she\u2019s won $685k and has two graded titles (G1 French Diana<\/SPAN><\/I>, G2 Regina Elena<\/SPAN><\/I>) on her resume.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Ran an SP of 101 in a third place effort in the G1 Irish Oaks<\/SPAN><\/I> in her only try going this long.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>This is a big step up, but I wouldn\u2019t rule her out.<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

#9 Reinosa 21-1<\/SPAN><\/FONT><\/B> (Monsun), also a three year-old, beat older in her last, a listed stakes win (11f, SP 109).\u00a0 <\/SPAN>But she was dusted in a G1 try vs. her contemporaries at this distance in June and probably doesn\u2019t have what it takes to make this leap so soon.<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

#10 Perfect Drive 10-1<\/SPAN><\/FONT><\/B> (Pleasantly Perfect) has won just $172k and was off the board in her only two stakes tries.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She has had some success at 10 furlongs and ran an SP 106 at this distance in running second vs. allowance foes.\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

#11 Out of Spite 9\/2<\/SPAN><\/FONT><\/B> (Dynaformer) was an impressive winner last time out in the G1 Yolkshire Oaks<\/SPAN><\/I> (love it when a five year-old wins an Oaks) at this distance.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>SP was just 103 in that race, though she can do better (109 two back at 12f in running third).\u00a0 <\/SPAN>13-for-27 lifetime on grass for a whopping $3.87M in earnings and a five-time graded stakes winner (two G1s) going long, Out of Spite is quite a mare.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Late running style is not what I prefer at these long distances, but her class is undeniable.<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

#12 Red Torch 11-1<\/SPAN><\/FONT><\/B> (Monsun) is 6-for-8 lifetime and is one of four sophomores in the field.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She\u2019s the real deal too, having won the 12f G1 Irish Oaks<\/SPAN><\/I> in style (3 \u00bc lengths, SP 105) and the G3 Minerve<\/SPAN><\/I> at 13f by the same margin (SP 108).\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Like others in here, she\u2019s a deep closer\u2026 and while I don\u2019t like that at this distance, it hasn\u2019t held her back so far.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Chance at a price.<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

Selections: I\u2019m going with the older ones here.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>The step from three year-old to open company gets larger the farther you run.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>And these waters are deep.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>I\u2019ll tab Dynamics of War<\/SPAN><\/B> on top.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>I just like the pattern and she is coming into her own.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Out of Spite <\/SPAN><\/B>is deservedly the favorite in here.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>BJ\u2019s Prayer <\/SPAN><\/B>could steal this on the lead.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Red Torch <\/SPAN><\/B>has an outside shot at victory, and if she pulls this out, she has to be in the conversation for champion three year-old filly.<\/SPAN><\/FONT><\/P><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

But Grade I Marathon Should Be Veterans\u2019 Day<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":310,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9603","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-previews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9603","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/310"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=9603"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9603\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=9603"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=9603"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=9603"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}