The cross-hairs surround defending champion Carnival of Love<\/SPAN><\/B>, <\/SPAN><\/B>who breaks from the rail in a six-horse field in Saturday\u2019s G1 Sword Swallower Stakes<\/SPAN><\/I> in Upper New York.<\/SPAN><\/FONT><\/P> #1 Carnival of Love 3-1 <\/SPAN><\/FONT><\/B>(Giant\u2019s Causeway) has won an incredible $8.6 million in his career.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>His gilded cap includes the following feathers: the G1 Ark de ComicDog<\/SPAN><\/I>, which he\u2019s won two years running, the G1 Queen\u2019s Dish<\/SPAN><\/I> at 10 furlongs, the G1 Reclamation <\/SPAN><\/I>(R) at 13 panels, and this race, which he won last year.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>The five year-old hasn\u2019t hit paydirt since October\u2019s Ark<\/SPAN><\/I> win, and his recent travels have been rough \u2013 he\u2019s just 0-0-2 from his last seven starts, albeit against top flight company.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>At five years old, I\u2019m not ready to think this one is done yet, but his late punch has been more of a poke than a haymaker of late.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Interesting that Brennan, who rode him to victory here last year, sits out while Radzinski takes the mount.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>\u00a0<\/SPAN><\/P> #2 Skunkjeureyev 3-1<\/SPAN><\/FONT><\/B> (Montjeu) is a four-year old winner of seven races and $720k.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Nice credentials but the fact that he seems overmatched here speaks to the quality of the field.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>A Grade III winner at the distance, he has been getting smaller checks of late in good efforts vs. G1 and G2 company in Europe.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Popped SPs of 110 in his last two tries at this distance and should be in the mix for a piece of the pie, but not the winner\u2019s share.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Underlaid price.<\/P> Favored #3 Faraday Cage 5\/2<\/SPAN><\/B> (Henrythenavigator) annexed the G1 Man Of War<\/SPAN><\/I> going 1 3\/8m downstate on July 9 and now makes the logical next step to try for an impressive summer double.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>The four year-old colt out a Redoute\u2019s Choice x Miswaki mare does his best running at this turf classic distance, in which he won the July 2010 G1 Owner\u2019s Stakes<\/SPAN><\/I> vs. three year-olds in Ontario.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He was absolutely devastating that day (SP 111, won by 4) and nearly pulled off a huge shocker at 22-1 in missing by a head in the Breeders\u2019 Bowl Turf<\/SPAN><\/I> at this distance in Kentucky.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>There is a bit of a problem with minor awards for this one (record at 12f on the grass is 9-2-4-1) but this is a classy horse who may be rounding back into his best form.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Look out.<\/SPAN><\/FONT><\/P> #4 Tex Gold 7\/2 <\/SPAN><\/FONT><\/B>(Sadler\u2019s Wells) tuned up for this one with an allowance romp last month and has a bit of an advantage over the rest of the field in that he hasn\u2019t been asked to run much of late.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>This will only be his fourth start since last November, and only his second Grade I try in that time.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>A winner of 11 races and nearly $5M, this is a classy horse, and texasace<\/SPAN><\/I> certainly doesn\u2019t push him to run too often.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>It should be noted that this horse geared up for his four year-old campaign in a similarly slow manner and exploded to a G1 win in the Saint Cloud Grand Prix <\/SPAN><\/I>last June.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>In fact, this is a nearly identical pattern: a classified allowance romp at short odds at 11f off a three month layoff, followed by a step up to Grade I company at 1 1\/2m.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>I love these pattern plays and I\u2019ll be all over this one.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Lone speed too.<\/P> #5 Grand Ball 9\/2 <\/SPAN><\/FONT><\/B>(Dynaformer) blew Grade II company away in May down under at 1 1\/4m, and has three G2 titles to his name, to go along with a Grade I triumph at 1 1\/4m and a head-bob G1 defeat at this distance.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Grand Ball is 9-for-30 lifetime but just 3-for-19 away from his preferred California track.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>If you look at his graded stakes exploits, you see a similar spread.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>In California, Grand Ball is 7-3-3-0; away from California, he\u2019s just 10-1-2-0!\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Ran fifth in this race last year.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Certainly qualifies on class, but I don\u2019t think this five year-old is able to do the job away from the sunny confines of SoCal.<\/P> #6 Burnt Lawn 9-1<\/SPAN><\/FONT><\/B> (Montjeu) just missed by a head in the G1 United Countries<\/SPAN><\/I> last time out at 11f at 15-1.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>An inconsistent sort who has likely battled injuries, \u2018Lawn had one tremendous day in the sun last April when he won the G1 Sydney Derby<\/SPAN><\/I> as a three year-old at 1 1\/2m.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He hasn\u2019t really improved all that much since, and I have to wonder if SP 109 last time out was a fluke.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He seems to be focused on marathon distances of late but don\u2019t discount his ability going shorter\u2026 ran a nice third in the Saint Cloud<\/SPAN><\/I> at this distance.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Bomb threat. <\/P> Selections: Everything points to Tex Gold<\/SPAN><\/B> as the winner for me.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>The pattern is so enticing, as is the fact that he should be all alone dictating the tempo to a small field at a long distance.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Faraday Cage\u2019s <\/SPAN><\/B>last is good enough to take this.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Carnival of Love <\/SPAN><\/B>should be by the faders for third.<\/SPAN><\/FONT><\/P><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Five Will Try to Deny \u2018Carnival\u2019 Repeat <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":310,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9488","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-previews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9488","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/310"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=9488"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9488\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=9488"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=9488"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=9488"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}