Moises Alou Cap-G2, 3yo M 8.5F Dirt
race 4610.3614<\/p>\n
We are in Belgium at Mons this week. I find it hard to understand why we have sim racing in Belgium as they do not have a proper racecourse dedicated to horse racing have very few meetings and the quality is very poor. It would make sense to turn this course into Yorkshire where many grade 1 races are held and they have over 10 racecourses. I worry in case we get a load of scientists in Antarctica join the sim we may get Penguin Park then. <\/p>\n
Racehorse breeding in Belgium is limited I can see one stud farm which is no surprise given the state of racing in the country. They have 4 sires at the stud though only two are in the sim. In truth these sires are so bad the horses should struggle to win even in regional racing. I would not be surprised if most of the offspring end up on a butchers slab in Brussels as we know the Belgium like to eat horse meat.<\/p>\n
In fairness to Belgium there are two outstanding contributions they have made to horse racing in the last 100 years one a horse the other a jockey. The Horse Prince Rose was a brilliant race horse who when retired to stud was a top class sire. His Irish bred son Princequillo went onto be an outstanding sire and we have seen his gene\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s been carried in many of the best racehorses in the world over the last 50 years. The other is the jockey Christophe Soumillon who in my opinion is the best jockey in the world right now and it would be argue for anyone to name three better riders at present. The difference he has made to the De Kock stable in Dubai this year is amazing when compared to the poor O\u00e2\u20ac\u2122Shea who was riding the horse before.<\/p>\n
As Mike has mentioned he is starting work on the new horse database it seems a good time to look at some of the best dam sires in Europe and the UAE. The ones listed had over 5 stakes horses in 2010 I will do the letters A \u00e2\u20ac\u201c M this time and complete the list on my next preview. Some are obvious, others obvious but their sim rating is not and a few are sunrises and could well be worth keeping in your notebook for when the ability to rate sires online becomes active as many will be outstanding value for money especially if sires have a sire and dam sire rating which can be very different. A prime example is Danzig who ha not got a great record as a dam sire compared to as a sire.<\/p>\n
Barathea had 11 stakes horse in 2010. His record as a dam sire is good with 17 graded winners in the last 7 years in real life. He is obviously better than rated in the sim and most of his mares produce horses that stay over a mile. He comes from an outstanding female family so it should not be such a shock he is doing well as a dam sire. There are no obvious stand outs as to how to breed him although two of his stakes horses were sired by Intikhab.<\/p>\n
Be My Guest has a solid sim record and has in real life. His mares are getting old now so his influence is starting to reduce yet he should still be a good dam dam sire. I have mentioned before that his sim rating appears to be reasonable and he is usually available at the end of the week so offers value for money. He appears to work well with German bloodlines.<\/p>\n
Bering had two grade 1 winner sin 2010 including the world\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s highest rated horse. He had 7 black type horses in all and most appear to stay well. This is interesting in as much his own son\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s and daughter tended to have less stamina than expected. It is worth noting what a good racehorse he was if he had not run into Dancing Brave his profile would have been way higher 9 years out of 10 he would have been the world\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s highest rated horse himself. Again there are no obvious stand out breeding patterns. He really need a big sim boost.<\/p>\n
Caerleon was an excellent racehorse and sire we now forget he was the Coolmore number two ahead of Danehill at his death. He is an outstanding broodmare sire in real life and needs a massive sim boost. He is one of only 11 sires to have had over 50 graded stakes offspring since 2003 and has had more than say Nureyev, Seattle Slew, Storm Cat, Deputy Minister and Rainbow Quest all rated way higher in the sim and should not be. He should be at worst a top 10 sim dam sire and is one horse that will really benefit when Mike fully implements the changes. His offspring as a dam sire are very versatile and win over the whole range of trips from 5f to 2\u00c2\u00bd miles. He had 11 black type horses in 2010 including a pair of grade 1 winners. There are no obvious stand out breeding patterns among the group.<\/p>\n
Danehill no surprise hear he and Sadler\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s Wells have been the outstanding sires in the world over the last 15 years head and shoulders above anyone else though this has not been reflected in the sim. As expected he is doing a really good job as a dam sire with 15 back type horses including a classic winner and two top class 2yo\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s. Over half had Sadler\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s Well blood in them, another was by Pivotal who traces to Nureyev a close relative of Sadler\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s Wells we also have 3 by sons of Giant\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s Causeway and two out of Dalakhani so there are obvious trends to exploit here. He should be in the top 4 dame sires in the game.<\/p>\n
Darshaan has been an outstanding broodmare sire for a long time though you would never guess it in the sim. He should be in the top ten in the game as he has had 57 graded winners in the last 7 years 12 more than say Seattle Slew and look at the sim records of both he needs a rating higher than Seattle Slew and is going to be a massive winner from any regarding that comes to pass though Seattle Slew will be a loser. He had 15 black type horses in 2010 9 of whom had Sadler\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s Wells blood and another via a son of Sadler\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s Wells full brother. This is obviously the best route to take exploiting breeding to blue hen mares in this case Lalun.<\/p>\n
Diesis has been a good sire and now broodmare sire for many years like his full brother and champion sire Kris. He had 5 black type horses most of them stay well. It is worth noting the success he has with Roberto line sires and it is an avenue to look into and exploit. <\/p>\n
Distant View is our first real surprise horse. He had 5 black type horses in Europe including a dual classic winner plus a winner of a major 3yo colt\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s race in the USA. His sim record is dire and he needs more use and will when things get sorted get a massive upgrade. It is not a surprise he is doing well as many of his mares are in the Juddmonte broodmare band and they are the best breeders in the world at present. They are matching these mares with sires that have scope and size to make up for the small stature of the usual Distant View mare. Two of his black type horses being by Selkirk.<\/p>\n
Efisio had 6 black type horses in 2010. He has had 7 graded stakes winners since 2003 and is obviously both underrated and more importantly under used in the sim. He is likely to get a big boost once everything is p and running. His offspring tend to be tough and durable as well which is an added bonus. The majority tend to e speedy but a few stay very well. He works really well with Danzig line sires especially Dansili!<\/p>\n
Fairy King was a leading 2yo sire in the 1990\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s it is therefore no surprise to see on the list with 5 horses. His mares are getting old now but as a DDS he should still have some worth in the game and that is more than it is at present. Unlike his brother he tends to be a source of speed. There are no obvious patterns but like his brother inbreeding to Special and Lalun would be a decent idea.<\/p>\n
Gone West had 6 black type horses in 2010 but nothing above grade 3 level. You can therefore look at other sires here and get a gauge of where his ability should be compared to where it is at present. He is likely to be a big looser once the system is up and running properly so could well be a sire to avoid for 2012 onwards. There are no obvious trends so to speak with him either.<\/p>\n
Green Desert had 8 black type horses in 2010 including a classic winning 3yo. As a dam sire he is underrated in the sim if we compare him with Forty Niner he has had one more graded runner than him in the last 7 years at 22 compared with 21. There sim rating is very different. It is obvious one needs a big down grade and other upgrade so they can meet half way to get a realistic value for both. The obvious stand out is Machiavellian for crossing with Green desert as a couple of black type horses were by his sire sons. <\/p>\n
Hernando is doing well as a dam sire as well as a sire now. This is no surprise as he has been bred to well bred mares and is a source of stamina which is always useful when trying to breed classic winners. Again it is hard to find any obvious nicks and patterns that he enjoys but he is an influence for classic stamina and is likely to be found in the pedigrees of decent horses like his farther for a long time to come. It helps his owner is head of the TBA. In need of an up lift as both a sire and dam sire in the game.<\/p>\n
Indian Ridge had a black type horses in 2010 he is a very reliable solid dam sire as he was sire. He is an influence for speed and the vast majority of his horses as both a sire and dam sire are best at up to a mile. He is basically an outcross sire as well and useful if mixed with major stamina influences. He like many is in need of a sim upgrade and is likely to benefit from the new rules.<\/p>\n
Kendor had 5 black type horses in 2010 four of which were graded runners. This is pretty common with him. He was a leading sire in France and like many sires from mainland Europe even more so than elsewhere is massively undervalued in the sim. He and many sires from France and Germany are going to be big winners when the database works fully. As with may Grey Sovereign line horses breeding to Montjeu in real life pays massive dividends and in theory should do in the sim as well.<\/p>\n
Kingmambo no surprise here except there were only 5 black type horses though one was top class. He has had 26 graded winners as a dam sire in the last 7 years which is good but there are others way better than him with worse rating consider that to the sim where he has had 70 in his last 4 crops! He is in need of a massive down grade and is likely to be one of the big losers when the database works fully even though he will be top class still. This sort of shows how interesting and rewarding breeding could become for players except the few one dimensional players in the sim. Breeding back to Special is a massive plus factor with this horse.<\/p>\n
Last Tycoon as if to prove a point with Kingmambo he had 9 black type runners in Europe in 2010 but that does not tell the whole story. In the same period he has been the dam sire of 62 graded winners worldwide. It does not take a genius to work out which sire should have the higher rating and how far the sim ratings are out on these two sires. In fact only 4 sires have more graded winners than him and one Southern Halo has amassed that amount in South America in poor races that would not carry graded status in the Northern hemisphere. The sire who should be better than him in the sim are as follows Mr. Prospector, Saddler\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s Wells and Danehill plus a few others when you factor in a few other pieces of information but at worst he should be a top 20 dam sire. The obvious breeding route is horses carrying the brothers Zafonic and Zamindar each of whom appears in 2010 graded horses pedigrees. Zamindar has been well bred of late see Hasili being sent to him in 2011. He is likely to become a hot dam sire as Zafonic is becoming to a certain extent. This should give you a nice mare for the future with Last Tycoon as a dds.<\/p>\n
Lion Cavern this one is a surprise but he is well bread and was well supported at stud early in his time with Darley. He is a full brother to Gone West for those who do not know. He should average around 1 graded winner per year and several listed winners per crop on to p of that. He had 5 black type horses in 2010. He is underused in the sim and was not bad as a sire so it depends how much Mike has downgraded him but he could be a capable horse at a cheap price. <\/p>\n
Lomitas was a good horse and has been a decent sire. Most of his offspring stay well which is an added bonus his son Silvano is doing really well at stud in South Africa and may well start shuttling again soon as he did not do bad in Germany either. The Dubai World Cup could have a bearing on that his son is favourite at present. He is another sire who will do better from the new database when fully functioning. There are no obvious breeding patterns for this horse. <\/p>\n
Machiavellian had 6 black type horses in 2010 though they did include 2 grade 1 winning 2yo\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s both interestingly by Invincible Spirit who could well be a sire that is going to get a massive sim boost next year based on his 2yo runners in 2010 his first high quality crop of mares he set a world record for number of winners and some really exciting 2yo\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s including the world\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s most exciting the Sea The Stars Galileo brother. Machiavellian has a brilliant stakes winners to runners percentage within the best 10 active and has a decent number of graded winners 31 in real life in the same period as Kingmambo he is a better dam sire all round than him and is in need of a massive sim boost as he has only 16 in the same number of crops the other sire has 70 one has to think Kingmambo is likely to have his ability reduced by 60% plus once the database is fully functioning. <\/p>\n
Mr. Prospector has been the leading sire in numerical terms of graded stakes winners in the last 7 years in real life up to the end of 2010 but has now been over taken by Sadler\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s Wells and will not peg him back and Danehill will also over take him this year. No surprise really as he was an outstanding stallion. It is though looking that due to the age of his mares and no new ones coming online his star is beginning to fall hence why depreciation in dam sire ability is something for Mike to consider and I guess will sort of come on line once the new database is working. He had 5 black type horses in 2010. The stand out here for breeding is simple Glorious Song two of the horses were sired by her sons Rahy and Singspiel one by Rahy\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s son Noverre the graded winner and another out of Giant\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s Causeway who\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s dam is by Rahy. Is this luck or is there something more to it well it appears on face value to be something worth considering exploiting. <\/p>\n
On to this week\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s race it appears a few of the more shrew trainers in the game have shipped over to have a horse in the right region ready for the UAE Derby and of course Derby lock race. That is a smart move as not all horses do great first time of a long travel.<\/p>\n
MALIBU BRAT (KY) MALIBU MOON x STORM CAT x MR. PROSPECTOR<\/p>\n
This horse\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s sire is doing well in real life and is attracting far better mares as well. His sim rating has been improved over the last few years as well and it appears reasonable though is in danger of getting way too high already. If anything he needs knocking back 10-15%. He has not sired any star runners yet in terms of horses rated over 125 but has a solid record that is likely to improve. His record in Europe though is not great with an AEI of 0.17 he is a dirt sire through and through as his pedigree suggests and is being bred to achieve those goals classic dirt runners. If this race is anything to go by he is worth your consideration as well. This horse has been improving nicely and showing progression which is a massive positive as he therefore does not appear to be a good 2yo and then bust type of horse. His two graded starts are his worst two runs but last time may have been down to the off track. He stays the trip and has place claims in this race.<\/p>\n
ZZZZZOOM OIL (KY) HARD SPUN x SWAIN (IRE) x ALYDAR<\/p>\n
Interesting pedigree as you would have thought in the sim this horse was as likely to be good on turf as dirt. His first yearlings sold reasonably well which given the market was a positive sign going forward though Danzig horse\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s have a poor record at stud in North America while everywhere else they are the dominate force. This horse has not done much so far and looks a nice progressive sort. He ran and won well on an off track which usually but always means the horse will stay further in time that is with inexperienced horses. He has been beaten since but maybe that run took a bit out of him. If he can handle the jump up in class then he has place prospects but will probably be seen to better effect over further later in the year. <\/p>\n
CODE OF THE STREET (KY) FUSAICHI PEGASUS x STORM CAT x AFFIRMED<\/p>\n
This horse is still over rated in the sim compared to a lot of other horses in the game and shows the advantages of the new database going forward. His sales results last year were poor ad I expect Coolmore have been offering deals and struggling to fill him this year. The fact has three horses that have been rated over 120 are now 8years old shows his time as a top class sire has well and truly gone. This horse has looked really good so far with three wins in four. He has shown improved speed figures each tart and the jump up to stakes company last time held no fears. If he has no issues with graded racing he has to have an outstanding chance here and the increased trip should help. It would be no massive surprise to see him win follow up in the UAE and then run in the Bluegrass.<\/p>\n
DEVIL’S MOON (KY) MALIBU MOON x KINGMAMBO x STORM CAT<\/p>\n
Malibu Moon\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s sales statistics are worth looking at the averages have not been that great year on year compared with sales figures. Up to 2008 he was not making a profit when mare depreciation was put in place. Though he has seen in the last 2 years 2009 and 2010 his averages double. This must be dues to better quality mares arriving after the success of his early runners. It will be interesting to see if he now produces more top class runners. He does not look very good value for money at $60,000 though. This horse has run well and more importantly posted a triple digit speed figure. Te negative is his stakes runs where he has come up short you do start to wonder after three tries one in a restricted stakes if he has a glass ceiling in place which we all know is very common is sim horses. If he can overcome the class issue he has good place prospects here. <\/p>\n
RAVEN CHACHIN (IRE) RAVEN’S PASS x SILVER HAWK x CONQUISTADOR CIELO<\/p>\n
Raven\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s Pass sim record has been poor so far it is hard to work out why. His first foals were sold last year and did well of 15 sold only one was for less than his stud fee and two thirds sold for over $100,000 compare that to Curlin who sold four and all sold for less than his stud fee. It is obvious given the data in the public domain which sire should have the best rating now going forward and it is not the higher rated one in the sim. This horse you would expect would be better on turf but it appears all surfaces comes a like to him. He can handle stakes class as well which is a bonus. The negative looking at his form is trip the evidence at hand suggests he is a sprinter and therefore may struggle here both due to trip and the lack of evidence that he can run a 95+ rates speed figure.<\/p>\n
OLD ETONIAN (KY) OLD FASHIONED x CAPOTE x WOODMAN<\/p>\n
This horse\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s sire was a good horse but did not run very much. We cannot tell anything about his offspring yet. We can look at sign to suggest if he will be any good at stud and they are not great at present no grade 1 wins at all injured as well and did not race a full season at three all massive negatives. His sim record of 1.5% stakes winners from his first crop appears around about the maximum you would expect so he appears well rated so far. This horse has decent speed figures and appears to stay well so the trip will not be an issue. He is making a big jump from a non winner of 2 race to grades takes company will he bridge the gap? The evidence suggest that he may find this a little tough at present and there are several horse on paper that appear to have a lot more to offer. His chances do not look great.<\/p>\n
DEPLETED MINE (KY) MINESHAFT x ENCOSTA DE LAGO (AUS) x DANZIG<\/p>\n
Mineshaft has not done so well at stud, well terrible for a sire that retired for six figures though he has had one grade 1 winner now. The ting I find amazing in the sim is that he has more earning on the turf and dirt for a horse that based on his turf form would struggle to get a stud place in Kenya that is just unreal. To back this up he has sired the winners of 8 races in England and Ireland which have more turf racing than all weather racing yet only 1 win was on turf. I said before this horse was a skid turf sire and nothing in the records proves otherwise. This horse has improved for the switch to dirt which makes sense!!!! He has won tow and looked like he is improving with age which is a positive sign. The big question is he able to bridge the class gulf to graded races. We will find out today but my gut instinct is he will find a few to good for him in this race. He may do better over further in time especially as his dam sire for strange reasons does better with horse that go over a distance of ground.<\/p>\n
BORDMONT (IRE) MONTJEU (IRE) x ROCK OF GIBRALTAR (IRE) x RIVERMAN<\/p>\n
Montjeu is the outstanding sire in this field. If we compare his record with top class race horses those rated over 120 he has 14 compared with 1 for the year younger Malibu Moon he should therefore be around 10 times more likely to sire a sim superstar than Malibu Moon the jury is out on whether that is the case I doubt it is true. It is worth noting that he has sired the winners of only 2 races at 5-6 furlongs in the UK or Ireland and all his best horse have achieved their top rating at over a mile. He also has no top class horses on anything but turf. That being the case it is hard to imagine this horse with his back end a swell liking the switch to dirt though this is the sim and very strange things do happen like Mineshaft siring turf horses so I guess therefore Montjeu can sire dirt horses. This horse has done well and appears to like a trip. He may like many Montjeu\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s be slow maturing so not at his peek yet. I also get the feeling he wants further than 10f and the sim does not really cater for this kind of horse very well especially as outside the USA there are races for horse of this type. I cannot see the drop back in trip and switch in surface being a great benefit to this horse and would not be backing him here.<\/p>\n
As for my selections:-<\/p>\n
1 Code Of The Streets
2 Malibu Brat
3 Zzzzzoom oil <\/p>\n
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